Every Sunday, we share 21 Fantasy Rambles from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s 'Daily Ramblings'.

Writers/Editors: Ian Gooding, Michael Clifford, Alexander MacLean and Dobber

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1. Although the Panthers didn’t look like much of a threat entering the playoffs, remember that they are a team that is only one year removed from a Presidents’ Trophy win. Despite some notable offseason departures, the Panthers added an elite player in Matthew Tkachuk, who has been carrying this team.

After leading Florida with 109 points (31 points ahead of the next-highest scorer), Tkachuk also leads his team in the playoffs with 10 points, including two goals and an assist in Game 6. If the Panthers pull off the Game 7 upset on Sunday, it will likely be because Tkachuk was a difference maker. (apr29)

2. The HNIC panel was debating whether Linus Ullmark should start Game 7 after allowing six goals in Game 6. Ullmark has had two consecutive really bad starts and three in this series, which accounts for all of the Bruins’ losses. To compare, he had only two really bad starts during the entire regular season. It’s easy to lay the blame on him for the Game 6 result, but the Bruins defense shot themselves in the foot on multiple occasions in that game. (apr29)

3. Frederik Andersen impressed in his playoff debut, stopping 33 of 34 shots to earn a win and a quality start, as the Hurricanes ousted the Islanders in six games. Anderson also broke a streak of eight consecutive games without a win when trying to clinch a playoff series. Assuming he’s not still battling an injury, expect Andersen to take over from Antti Raanta as the starter in the next round.

Because Canucks fans will want to know, Bo Horvat scored one goal with one assist in the six playoff games against the Canes. He finished the regular season with seven goals and 16 points in 30 games as an Islander after scoring 31 goals and 54 points in 49 games with the Canucks. That’s a massive drop from 1.10 PTS/GP to 0.53 PTS/GP. His eight-year contract extension kicks in next season, so Islanders fans will be hoping for improvement. (apr29)

4. Injuries are the part of every postseason for every team, but the way Carolina has endured theirs is something else. The team got five games from Max Pacioretty before he was re-injured and shelved for the season while Andrei Svechnikov blew out his knee a week after the Trade Deadline. Add in the recent Teuvo Teravainen injury, and things were looking bleak.

They did get a bit of good news about a depth injury as Jack Drury was at practice on Thursday. Drury has been out since early in Game 4 due to an upper-body injury that the team has said is not a concussion. It isn’t as if Drury is a key cog to the roster, but losing any more guys at this point is a loss, almost regardless of their station on the team. (apr28)

5. Jake Oettinger has found his form at the right time, posting three consecutive quality starts while allowing just three goals over those three games (all wins). The Wild had been shut out five consecutive periods before scoring their lone goal of Game 6 in the third period. Too little too late, as the Stars took the series 4-2. (apr29)

6. Kirill Kaprizov was a playoff pool dud, scoring a goal in Game 1 but being held pointless in five games after that. We’ll find out soon whether he was battling through an injury. Keep in mind that he had just returned from an injury shortly before the playoffs.

He had also drawn the daunting matchup of facing Miro Heiskanen, who deserves some Norris Trophy consideration as a two-way threat on defense. Heiskanen, by the way, has played 26:22, 27:00, 28:20, and 28:25 over the last four games. None of those ice time totals were artificially boosted by overtime games. (apr29)

7. Seattle doesn’t possess the high-level talent that Colorado has with Cale Makar, Nathan MacKinnon, and Mikko Rantanen, but their third and fourth lines look more legit than those of the Avalanche. Should we be that surprised that this series is going seven?

Just like Boston, Colorado has the advantage of home ice for their Game 7. Last change, the loud fans, the pressure of potentially losing to an underdog? Upsets are a thing in playoff hockey, so one or both of these teams could easily be sent packing on Sunday. (apr29)

8. I have a hard time thinking that the Jets should return with the same core next season. Pierre-Luc Dubois is believed to have his eye on moving elsewhere, while longtime Jets Mark Scheifele and Blake Wheeler may have played their last games with the team. One player that has surprisingly also been mentioned in those changes is Connor Hellebuyck, who has one year left on his current contract. Hellebuyck tied for the league lead in games played (64 GP), and his league-leading 44 quality starts demonstrates the value he has to the Jets. Hellebuyck has also had back-to-back seasons with 60+ games.

Assuming the Jets decide to keep him and attempt to extend him, this might be an opportunity to prioritize acquiring a better backup goalie as part of these changes. Seven goalies played at least 60 games, which has dropped significantly from the 2011-12 season, when 13 goalies played at least 60 games. I just wonder if that is sustainable even now, considering that teams also want to ride that same starter for a deep playoff run. For fantasy purposes, wear and tear on a goalie is something to monitor. As great as Hellebuyck has been this season, how effective will he be if he is forced to play another 60+ games? (apr29)

After being held pointless in Game 1, Mark Stone put up three goals and eight points in four games to lead the Golden Knights charge past the Jets in five contests. It is safe to say that he has had a massive impact on the outlook of this team. (apr28)

9. Tim Stützle asserted himself as a superstar-in-the-making. He may already be there, in fact. Regardless, here are the improvements Stützle made from his first two seasons:

• Points per 60 minutes increase at 5-on-5 by nearly 55%.
• Shot attempts/60 increase at 5-on-5 by nearly 24%.
• Points/60 increase at 5-on-4 by 7%.
• Shot attempts/60 increase at 5-on-4 by over 17%.

That is a lot of increases, even on the power play where he excelled in his first couple of campaigns. The gains made at 5-on-5 are a big reason why he cracked the 90-point plateau, adding over 50% to his point total from a year ago.

One explanation for his points increase at 5-on-5 is the jump in Scoring Chance Contributions/60 minutes at 5-on-5. The SCC/60 stat is simply a player’s individual scoring chances plus assists on teammate scoring chances, and this is all tracked by Corey Sznajder. That rate increased by a whopping 45% from 2021-22. His number (11.03/60) for 2022-23 didn’t put him among the elite like Connor McDavid or Nathan MacKinnon, but it did put him in the next tier with names like Kevin Fiala (10.93/60), Jason Robertson (11.0/60), John Tavares (11.26/60). That improved offensive play at 5-on-5 was a huge key to Stützle’s offensive success, which led to his finish as a top-25 skater on Yahoo! Fantasy (coincidentally, just ahead of Tavares). (apr28)

10. Brady Tkachuk hasn’t quite reached his final fantasy form, but 35 goals, 83 points, 29 PPPs, 347 shots, and 242 hits is about as close as he’ll get. His value was hurt in leagues with plus/minus, but in multi-cat leagues without them, he was likely a top-10 skater. That is about what we should expect from him moving forward, though his older brother offers insight into how younger Brady can improve his point totals further (it might be toning down the sheer physicality). (apr28)

11. Seeing the growth from some of the young Nashville forwards was the big success of the season, fantasy-wise. Tommy Novak was called up in the middle of December and exploded immediately with 11 points in 19 games leading to the All-Star Game. That might not seem great, but he was playing 11:18 a night. That’s great production for that ice time.

After the ASG, that production went to another level with 13 goals and 32 points in 31 games post-Forsberg. Per Corey Sznajder’s tracking data, Novak finished above average by Scoring Chance Contributions per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 (SCC/60, or individual scoring chances plus assists on teammate scoring chances). Across the league, he compared favourably to names like Valeri Nichushkin and Elias Lindholm.

There are issues to Novak’s season, particularly his defensive play, but the offense was not a mirage, even if some of his percentages (like personal SH%) were high. Perhaps there is pullback in per-minute production in 2023-24, but if he can maintain his level of offensive play, and add some ice time – he finished the year under 15 minutes a game – there should still be good production. (apr27)

12. Much of the same above could be applied to Luke Evangelista, who put up good offensive numbers – production, play-driving, or micro-stats – but did so in about half the sample. A good showing, absolutely, but we need more from him. But, like Novak, more of the same would have him on a clear upward trajectory. (apr27)

13. Of course, the big success in Nashville was Juuse Saros. He followed up his 2021-22 Vezina-nominated season with an even better season: second by Evolving Hockey‘s Goals Saved Above Expected, trailing only Ilya Sorokin. That incorporates the defense in front of him which, as mentioned earlier, was bad. Despite not finishing near the leaders in traditional stats like Wins, GAA, and SV%, he was still the #1 goalie on Yahoo! Fantasy. Being elite, even on poor defensive teams, can still lead to great fantasy seasons for a goalie. People who didn’t think he was one of the best goalies in the world before 2022-23 have likely changed their minds. (apr27)

14. Akira Schmid is someone that came out of nowhere to many. I own him on two of my fantasy dynasty teams, as he has been brought up on the forums and in the Ramblings more than once over the last year or so. He’s earning himself the backup role next year, and planting the seed in Lindy Ruff’s mind that he could even be a platoon starter option with the incumbent Vitek Vanecek who also has the contract advantage. (apr26)

15. The offseason goalie carousel is going to be fascinating in Vegas, with three UFAs (Laurent Brossoit, Jonathan Quick, and Adin Hill) to go along with rookie sensation Logan Thompson, and the rehabbing Robin Lehner – forgot about him, didn’t you? (apr26)

16. The Penguins might have fizzled at the end, but both Sidney Crosby (93 in 82) and Evgeni Malkin (83 in 82) surpassed the point-per-game mark on the campaign. Jake Guentzel scored 36 goals, which was a step back for him but still a good total, while the entire Penguins top-6 scored at least 20 goals each. Crosby, Malkin, Guentzel, Bryan Rust, Rickard Rakell, and Jason Zucker combined to miss a grand total of nine (9) games between them with the two centers not missing any time. If you had told me before the season that the top-6 would largely be healthy the entire season, I would have said Pittsburgh was not only playoff-bound but could challenge for a division title. Alas. (apr25)

17. If someone told me before the season that Crosby would set a four-year high in points/60 at even strength, and play all 82 games, I would have said 100 points would be his floor. Of course, he finished with 93, and the reason is the power play: Crosby set a career-low in points/60 at 5-on-4 while Malkin had his lowest production rate in over a decade.

In 2022-23, Crosby was on the ice for 7.7 goals/60 minutes at 5-on-4. To provide some context, each of his last two seasons saw 5-on-4 on-ice goal rates over 10.0, and he hasn’t been below 8.1 since the 2015-16 season. Now, 7.7 goals/60 isn’t awful – the median teams were around 7.0/60 minutes – but it’s clearly a huge drop for this super-talented group. Not only that, but the league saw a seven-year high in power plays per game and a 37-year high in power play efficiency. Being considerably worse on the power play, in relation to recent seasons, despite the league not only getting more efficient, but getting more chances on the power play, was a real bad mix for the Penguins. (apr25)

18. GROUND has been broken on the 2023 Fantasy Prospects Report! I figure on May 1 I will make next year’s offerings available in the shop for pre-order (not there yet). The Prospects Report will be released June 1.

Toronto prospect Matthew Knies will certainly be a part of that report. His transition to NHL hockey has been seamless, as many expected. To me, he has been consistently impressive with each shift of these playoffs. Noticeable every time he is out there. Knies is making things happen even when he is out there on a checking line.

His impact reminds me of Chris Kreider. I know that’s been a comparable by many around the league, but it’s apt. He’s not as quick as Kreider, but I think his hockey sense is another degree higher. For fantasy owners, something to keep in mind with Knies is that I also believe his production trajectory will be the same. Kreider had three points in his first season (23 games) and 37 in 66 games in his rookie campaign. He followed that up with 46, 43, 53, etc. That was Kreider’s established production range. For eight years. And then he had his 77-point season. I think Knies is going to give us points in that similar range, 45-60, for five or six years, but then he’ll really pop. And Knies has higher upside, so his ‘pop’ should be even better. If you don’t mind the wait, I think Knies will eventually top a point-per-game pace. (apr24) 

19. So how do you play it in dynasty leagues? Well, if you can’t get Knies in the draft this summer (or he was taken last summer, as we advised in last year’s FPR), it’s best to simply wait. In 2028, his owner will finally cool on him, wrongfully cementing his production window. That’s when you grab him. If you can’t get him at the draft, his trade price will be far too inflated. Just remember this note a few years from now and buy low at that point. (apr24) 

20. I think Pavel Zacha has another gear. He just enjoyed career highs of 21 goals and 57 points. His production range had long been established, but the needle just moved upwards and I believe it will again. If Patrice Bergeron retires, Zacha could move to top-line center. He still needs to work on his faceoffs, though. (apr24) 

21. A big story in the Edmonton–Los Angeles series is the play of Evan Bouchard. He has been a revelation since the Oilers traded away Tyson Barrie. He is now “the guy”, in case you hadn’t figured that out yet, and will continue to be a top blue line own until Connor McDavid goes to another team. He’ll still be a great own even after that happens, but with McDavid he’ll be a threat to become a 100-point defenseman.

Before you argue, keep in mind that McDavid just made Nugent-Hopkins a 100-point player, and Zach Hyman an 80-point player. (apr24) 

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Check out Mike Clifford's offseason series of reviewing the (fantasy) regular seasons of the non-playoff teams. The links for the complete team reports he has covered thus far: Nashville, Pittsburgh, Ottawa, Calgary, and Buffalo. 

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Have a good week, folks – stay safe!!

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