Now is a great time to take stock in the performance of your fantasy teams for 2022-23. And for me it also means revisiting the 17 Fearless Forecasts I made right before the puck dropped on game 1 of the campaign. Here is the original column for reference and review.

As usual, rather than just list the results, I discuss lessons learned from the predictions I got correct as well as those that were misses. Remember though that these were fearless forecasts, not simply your run of the mill predictions. Or to put it another way, I always go into this expecting to get more wrong than right; but I hope that in each case my logic was sound.

For each prediction, I'll assign myself a letter grade, as if I was back in school. Let's hope that when all is said and done I'm not sentenced to detention or, worse yet, don't have the grades needed to graduate.

Prediction: Every current Panther who played 40+ games in 2021-22 while scoring at a 60+ point pace will produce at a lower scoring rate for 2022-23

Outcome: I was correct about all four players who were on the Panthers in 2021-22, but alas Matthew Tkachuk, who did count, prevented this from being 100% correct

Grade: B- (after all, 4/5 is like 80%)

My logic in making this prediction was that Florida would never come close to achieving what they did in 2021-22, i.e., becoming the first team since the 1995-96 Pens to average over four goals per game. I based this not only on the fact they lost Jonathan Huberdeau but also because that team failed to make waves in the playoffs; so I figured they'd ease of the gas pedal in the regular season. It also didn't hurt that for each of the five, 2021-22 marked a career best scoring rate.

What I certainly didn't see was Tkachuk morphing into an even bigger star. How, then, did his presence not do for the team what Huberdeau's did in 2021-22, when he had a scoring rate almost identical to Tkachuks' from 2022-23? Tough to say for certain, although Brandon Montour's 73-point season surely syphoned points away from top forwards. Also, the continued emergence of Carter Verhaeghe had a similar, albeit less pronounced, effect. But collectively between them that was 50 or more points which otherwise would've gone to many of the four who saw their totals drop.

What lessons can be learned? If something doesn't happen for 25+ seasons and then is accomplished by a team filled with those who set career bests in scoring, warning bells rightfully go off. Then to see the team, which won the President's Trophy, summarily dismissed in the second round of the playoffs, together that was a recipe for a revamped focus for 2022-23, which sure enough did occur and indeed resulted in nearly all of the top performers for 2021-22 seeing their scoring rates drop for 2022-23.

Prediction: At least five Ottawa forwards will have 10+ power play goals

Outcome: Four did so and Claude Giroux had seven; and this was despite Josh Norris, who had 16 PPGs in 2021-22, missing nearly the entire season

Grade: B+

Again I need to emphasize how much of a fearless forecast this was, as it had happened only eight times in the history of the NHL, and not since 2005-06. But Ottawa nearly pulled it off despite Norris being MIA for basically the entire campaign. In fact, if we add together the PPGs by Claude Giroux and Shane Pinto, we get 12, which likely would've been the minimum for Norris. So again, I'm giving myself a very good grade despite not nailing the prediction.

The lesson learned is that when a team has, on paper, five forwards who all have amazing talent but no one or two who are head and shoulders above the rest, the result can – and should – be for things to go right and for PPG scoring to be evenly distributed. Do I think the Sens are a good bet to have this occur in 2023-24? I'd say so, especially since what they did this season occurred despite their rearguards accounting for seven PPGs, versus a mere two in 2021-22.

Prediction: Rasmus Dahlin will finish in the top five in defenseman scoring

Result: He tied for fifth

Grade: A

Did I see Buffalo's offensive explosion coming? Yes, as although the team finished 22nd in goals per game in 2021-22 with 2.79, they averaged 3.40 in their last 20 contests, which, along with their players all being poised to see improvements just in the normal course, signified that great things lay ahead.

This Dahlin prediction was not a lay-up, even given what I felt would occur with the Sabres, as after all he'd only finished 13th in 2021-22 and Owen Power loomed. But I correctly surmised that Power was more likely to be brought along slowly and, if anything, would allow Dahlin to focus on what he does best, i.e., making offense happen. Even if a team brings in a top tier talent, if they have a player who has a niche they'll likely let him shine in that area.

Prediction: Dougie Hamilton will set a career high in scoring rate

Result: I was correct, as he posted a rate of 0.9 points per game, beating his prior best of 0.85

Grade: A

Again it's important to stress how much of a fearless forecast this was, as Hamilton was coming off a season where he posted just 34 points in 62 games and lost the PP1 gig to Damon Severson for part of the campaign. But I realized that Hamilton had a trend where he always seems to shine in his second season with a squad. Beyond that, like Buffalo, New Jersey appeared to be a team on the rise, what with Jack Hughes showing signs of stardom even in an abbreviated campaign and forward ranks that were deep but also not otherwise huge scorers, giving Hamilton a ripe opportunity to see a lot of goals scored and for him to factor into many of them. The lesson is if a d-man has shown talent and bounced back in the past, plus is the best option for an improving team, chances are he'll rise to the occasion.

Prediction: 15+ goalies who play in 30+ games will have a better GAA and SV% than Andrei Vasilevskiy

Result: Vas finished 11th in SV and 13th in GAA among goalies who played in 30+ games

Grade: C-

Why am I giving myself a passing grade when I got this wrong? Not since 2017-18 had Vas finished outside the top ten in both GAA and SV%. Also, from 2018-19 through 2021-22 his collective ranks in those categories among goalies who played 100+ total games were third and fourth respectively.

The lesson here again is to look at the trends. With Vas, we all had seen how well he did in the playoffs, which is what we remember come draft day – that and him playing for a team who had the most wins (by 15!) of any squad during that same four year span. But unless one looked closely, they'd not see the fact that Vas had been – for him – below average in two of the previous three seasons. And other than Connor Hellebuyck he had the most mileage of any goalie, and in fact more than Hellebuyck if factoring in playoff games. In short, Vas was – and is – starting to show his age. Don't be blinded by reputation and past results plus recency bias of looking mostly at playoff performance.

Prediction: Nick Suzuki will finish in the top-five in points among centers in the Eastern Conference

Result: He finished 17th

Grade: D

My first big miss. Did I think Montreal was going to be vastly improved? No; however, I saw that Suzuki tallied 36 points in his final 33 games, poising him for success, or so I thought. Plus, the Habs' PP seemingly had only one way to go and that was up, which should've been huge for Suzuki, who had 20 PPPts on their total of 34 PPGs in 2021-22. There was also the reality that although Suzuki finished 27th among centers in points in 2021-22, his total ranked him tenth in the Eastern Conference, so I figured he'd gain enough to crack the top five. What didn't I count on? Cole Caufield getting hurt, as the chemistry they had was likely to lead to great things for both. That boosts me from an F to only a D.

Prediction: Mathew Barzal will set a career high in points in 2021-22

Result: Barzal did tie his second best ever scoring rate, but was 14 below his career best

Grade: D-

It seemed like the perfect recipe for success, as Barzal was out from under the offensively-stifling system of Barry Trotz, with Barzal having posted 85 points as a rookie the season before Trotz came on board. Yes, Lane Lambert is a Trotz disciple; but with the Isles not making the playoffs in 2021-22, I figured his mandate would be to focus more on offense.

Why then didn't my prediction come true? Barzal is a very talented hockey player who should be smack in the middle of his prime age-wise; but he's not a "one man show" type of star. In other words, you can't surround him with second- and third-tier talents and expect him to thrive, nor can you when you ask him to move to wing upon the arrival of Bo Horvat. Let this be a lesson to us all – it takes a very special and rare breed of player to be able to enjoy significant success despite a lack of supporting cast.

Prediction: If he plays 75+ NHL games, Calen Addison will score 50+ points

Result: Addison had 29 points in 63 games, for a 38-point pace

Grade: Technically an "Incomplete" but in reality a D-

I was 100% correct that Addison would be handed the keys to the kingdom in Minnesota, emerging as the PP1 QB. And sure enough after 44 games he had 17 PPPts! But he only had seven other points and his defensive liabilities led to him being scratched more and more as the season wore on.

So yes, there are examples of defensemen who step into a role like that, seize the opportunity, and thrive. But we tend to only remember those who succeed, not those who fail, with the latter comprising a far larger percentage than the former. Need we be reminded of Will Butcher, who had 44 points (23 PPPts) as a rookie, and then went nowhere? Even if a team doesn't have great options to get offense from the blueline, that doesn't mean they're going to continue to turn to a player who clearly is not yet ready for prime time.

Does this mean Addison's career will be over as quickly as it begun? Not necessarily, especially with the Wild still under a cap crunch for the next two seasons due to the Ryan Suter and Zach Parise buyouts. I suspect Addison will get a fresh look in 2023-24. But just because yet again he'll be in the right place at the right time doesn't mean he'll be any more ready to succeed, although the tough lessons he learned as a rookie might end up helping him.

Prediction: At least one goalie who played in 30+ games and had a GAA above 3.00 in 2021-22 will finish in the top five in GAA for 2022-23 among goalies who play 30+ games

Result: Correct! Ilya Samsonov (3.02 GAA in 44 games in 2021-22) finished fourth in GAA

Grade: A-

The funny thing about this is in 2021-22 it took a GAA of 2.41 to finish in the top five, and of the 16 goalies who had a GAA of 3.00 or higher in 2021-22, only two had failed to previously post a GAA of 2.41 or lower in at least one season, with one being Carter Hart, who missed the cut off by .01, and the other was Samsonov, who made the prediction come true. If that doesn't tell how unpredictable some goalies can be I don't know what would.

This having been said, a lot of the best of the best when it comes to goalies were not surprises. Yes, if you employed the zero goalie strategy and landed on the likes of Linus Ullmark, Vitek Vanecek and Jeremy Swayman you looked like a genius. But let's not forget that picked right around them in Yahoo drafts were Anton Forsberg, Elvis Merzlikins, Matt Murray, and Hart. In other words, there were just as many misses as hits, if not even more.

The lesson when it comes to goalies is there can be significant season-to-season variation in some. But reading the tea leaves can be difficult. Best to continue to tier goalies and take actions that are appropriate for your league, as goalie values can vary greatly depending on the number and weighting of netminder categories.

Prediction: Alex Ovechkin will get 40+ goals, but under 70 points

Result: Ovi had 42 goals and 33 assists, for 75 points in 73 games

Grade: C+

I was onto something when I predicted that Ovi would take a big step down from his 96 point scoring pace of 2021-22, just not quite as far down as I'd envisioned. Here too it was a case of past results coupled with current trends, Ovi ended 2021-22 with 53 points in 55 games, which clearly showed he was slowing. The players around him were either aging or not up to par by comparison to years past. Also, I realized that only once since 2014-15 had Ovi been a point per game player two seasons in a row; and although past results do not dictate future outcomes, the last time Ovi had bested 90 points in a season he fell to just 78 in 78 games the following campaign. Lo and behold, that was almost right where he ended up for 2022-23. Do I think Ovi can rebound to top form as he has previously? At his age and with the team around him, I'd say doubtful.

Prediction: Devon Toews will finish behind Cale Makar, Samuel Girard, and Bowen Byram in terms of points per game

Result: Toews' scoring rate fell from 71 in 2021-22 to 51 in 2022-23, but that was still better than either Byram or Girard

Grade: D+

Why not an F? Because I sniffed out that Toews had grossly overachieved in 2021-22. Had Byram played anywhere close to a full season chances are his rate, which was just behind Toews', would've been higher and Toews' lower. The lesson here is metrics are indeed reliable predictors, as of Toews' 44 assists in 2021-22, a remarkable 75% (i.e., 33) were secondary.

On top of that, in 2021-22 Toews tied for 34th in defensemen PPPts even though he logged only the 56th most PP minutes among rearguards, with only four of his 12 PPPts coming in his last 36 games, versus eight in his first 30. He also took the ice for 56.9% of his team's shorthanded minutes, which was the 19th highest percentage among any defenseman who played 50+ games.

Thus, when you have a case of so many numbers suggesting a "market correction" it's all but inevitable that such a correction will indeed occur. Lo and behold it did for Toews, who I think is due to shed even more points in 2023-24 due to a still high secondary assist rate and being tagged with even more shorthanded duty, plus the continued emergence of Byram, who looks like a star in the making.

Prediction: Nikita Kucherov's PPPts total will be higher than the overall point total from the highest scorer from at least one other team

Result: Kucherov had 50 PPPts, which was technically higher than the 49 points Max Domi scored to lead Chicago, but of course that was in only 60 games

Grade: B

First off, the fact that Domi and Patrick Kane, who no doubt would've surpassed 49 if they hadn't been dealt, ended up the highest scorers for Chicago still counts for purposes of their team. But let's not dwell on that, and instead look at the lesson to be learned, which is some players are just PP beasts every season, as indeed occurred in 2022-23

But there are fewer than one might think, as only six of the top 15 in PPPts from 2021-22 to 2022-23 likewise were in the top 15 for 2022-23. For the most part, PPPts is a team function, and we need look no further than Oiler forwards occupying the top three spots for 2022-23, and two players from each of the Rangers, Avalanche and Lightning in the top 15 this season. When it comes to PPPts, beyond a few superstars, look to the team more so than its players.

Prediction: Zach Werenski will finish behind only Cale Makar in defensemen goals per game

Result: Werenski missed nearly the entire season, and Makar only finished sixth

Grade: Incomplete, but realistically would've been a D or lower

If you go back and read the original column you'll see how I pled my case for Werenski, and I stand behind that. But let's also keep in mind just how dreadful Columbus was this season, which surely would've inhibited Werenski's ability to pot goals. The lesson here is stats and trends can present a strong case for or against something occurring; however, if a team either greatly surpasses or falls short of expectations that can cause all that data to be tossed out the window.

Prediction: Marco Rossi won't average a point per every other game if he plays center

Result: Rossi tallied a mere one point in 19 NHL games

Grade: A

It might seem strange now, but when I wrote this expectations were sky high for Rossi, whom many felt was a lock to shine either centering the top line or, as a consolation prize, the second unit on which Matt Boldy also would be present. But Rossi flopped to put it mildly, and was back in the AHL for the bulk of 2022-23, making it so it's not at all clear if – let alone when – he will eventually be able to fulfill on the lofty expectations that have accompanied him for several years.

Yes, I realize past data does not predict future outcomes; but I pointed out how centers as small or smaller than Rossi haven't met with much success, with the only two in the last ~20 seasons to do well were Danny Briere and Derek Roy, who each had several solid seasons but were far from superstars. The rest essentially didn't amount to anything, with only 16 as short or shorter than Rossi even playing 100+ games in the past decade and just two averaging better than a point per every other game. When the hype train leaves the station next season for Rossi, you might be best served not to hop on.

Prediction: Anton Forsberg will finish with at least ten more wins than Cam Talbot

Result: Forsberg looked downright lousy before getting hurt, and only tallied 11 wins all season, versus 17 for Talbot

Grade: D

Why not an F here? For one, Forsberg got hurt so we can't be sure what would've occurred; and I also was onto something in saying to not put faith in Talbot, who most certainly did disappoint. The lesson is that a career AHLer is a career AHLer for a reason, as we found out this season with Forsberg and also, arguably, Jack Campbell. So all those who think Phoenix Copley or Alex Lyon have a chance to make a mark in 2023-24, let's just say the odds are against them given their pedigree.

Prediction: Andrei Svechnikov will finish no better than 5th in points per game among Canes players

Result: His scoring rate dropped and he went from 2nd to 3rd

Grade: D+

Third isn't fifth; however, Max Pacioretty missed nearly the entire season and Teuvo Teravainen was injured for part of the campaign as well and didn't look like himself after returning. Here again I want to remind everyone about the huge hype there was surrounding Svech entering the season. There was talk of him rising to 90 points and becoming an absolute multi-cat beast. Instead, it was Brady Tkachuk who made the leap, and I'm not surprised as the signs just weren't there for Svech to thrive, most notably his IPP, which over his first four seasons averaged 61.9% and in 2022-23 was only a couple of notches better at 65.3%. Never once has he hit, or even threatened to surpass, the 70% threshold I consider to be so crucial to differentiate between players who will be capable of being stars. In IPP I trust, and only serves to reinforce my view on Svech.

Prediction: Elvis Merzlikins will lead the league in netminder appearances

Result: Elvis left the building……only 30 times having played in a game

Grade: G

Did I save my best for last? No – my worst; I couldn't even give myself an F, as that would be too kind! There's simply no sugarcoating this one. The only logic I had right was that Columbus would need to lean on a netminder to carry them. But thinking Elvis was that guy – yeah, I was WAYYYYY off base. Where did I go wrong? I relied on hunches, not data. I factored in Elvis' desire to dedicate his season to Matiss Kivlenieks, whose death came as a result of supposedly keeping Merzlikins' pregnant wife safe. I felt that would inspire him. But was that sound data? Nope.

Yes, Elvis did play in 27 of Columbus' last 30 games in 2021-22; however, that was more out of necessity than deservedness. When 2022-23 rolled around, Elvis couldn't stand the rigors of the season and even if he had his play was so subpar that he'd likely not have been called upon to start nearly as often as he did last season.

************

Looking back, I did……pretty darn well if I may say so myself. Really there were only a couple of huge misses and several that I nailed. How did you fare in your voting? Your top five vote getters in the poll that accompanied the original column were (1) Florida, (2) Dahlin, (3) Barzal, (4) Werenski, and (5) Anton Forsberg. Unfortunately, you latched onto two of my worst predictions; however, your top two vote getters were an almost hit and a big hit, so in all not too bad.

Next week it'll be back to Roos Lets Loose content as per usual, with an edition of the Goldipucks and the Three Skaters. And look for more Fearless Forecasts come October. As a reminder, my monthly mailbag is always looking for questions. To send yours to me for in depth, deep dive answers, you should either (1) private message “rizzeedizzee” via the DobberHockey Forums or (2) send the question(s) to me via email to [email protected] with “Roos Mailbag” as the subject line.