Welcome back to Goldipucks and the Three Skaters, a play on words of the Goldilocks and the Three Bears story. Instead of there being three bowls of porridge though, I cover three skaters and declare one too hot (i.e., doing unsustainably better than he should), another too cold (i.e., doing unsustainably worse), and a third “just right” (i.e., producing where he should be). In addition, I also assign each a rating of 1-10, indicating how hot (rated 7-10, where 10 is the most unsustainably hot), cold (rated 1-4, where 1 is the most unsustainably cold), or “just right” (rated 4-7, where 5.5 is the most “just right”) he is.

As I do once every year, it's time for a break from regularly scheduled programming to focus on netminders rather than skaters. It's the same concept as Goldipucks, just for goalies. Who did I chose for this special edition of the column? Juuse Saros, Connor Hellebuyck and Alexander Georgiev. Although their positions might be different, your task remains the same, which is to pause here to see if you can deduce, for 2022-23, which of the three were too hot, who was too cold, and whose stats were just right. I know you're not used to doing this for goalies, so good luck!

Juuse Saros (63 games started, 33 Wins, 7 OT Losses, 2 Shutouts, 2.69 GAA, .919 SV%)

The climb for Saros from fourth round pick to true #1 starter was not brief, as he made his first NHL appearance in 2015, a mere two seasons after being drafted. Although, he didn't appear in more than 36 games until 2019-20. In 2021-22 he was installed as the true #1 in Nashville, and has since won 55% of the games he started. But his stats as a true starter were a step down from 2020-21; so is the real Saros who we've seen these past two campaigns, or might he rise back to prior levels, or perhaps even fare worse? From where I sit, the Saros of 2021-22 and 2022-23 is about what we should come to expect.

When thinking of Saros, most envision a durable and capable #1 netminder, but one who's a rung below the very best of the best. In truth though, he's put up stats that show he's at the top the goalie class in several areas. For one, he's had a GSAA of 20+ in each of the past three seasons. How many other goalies also did so? Try zero. Not Ilya Sorokin, Igor Shesterkin, Andrei Vasilevsky, as they were the only ones who even had two. GSAA is one of those stats which can reveal a goalie being better than he'd appear, as one or both of Saros' SV% and GAA for the past two seasons were worse than that of those two had two GSAA seasons above 20. What does this mean? Saros is doing better than he should, and arguable better, with the team in front of him, than those perceived as the best in today's NHL.

It doesn't end there. Dating back to Saros' first true NHL season of 2016-17, he ranks first among all goalies who've since played 200 games in highest Quality Start Percentage, at 62.3%, with Tristan Jarry, who appeared in 79 fewer games, second at 60.6%, and then you have to go sub 60% to find Andrei Vasilevskiy in third at 58.8%. Wait – there's more. Saros also has the highest SV% of any goalie over the same seven-season stretch who played 200+ games, at .919, edging out Vasilevskiy. All this despite Saros' GAA ranking him fifth in the same time frame.

What does that tell us about Saros? He's playing well above the level a normal goalie should be. But we can also see that his SV% was at or below his average in his past two seasons, and his GAA above his rate of 2.57 over that entire stretch. Can Saros, as a high volume starter, be better than he has been the past two seasons though?

A positive sign is in 2021-22 he had just one quarter above his career .919 SV%, while in 2022-23 he had three. His two worst quarters were the end of 2021-22 and the first quarter of 2022-23. As such, it is easier to possibly disregard those as outliers, and him as a better goalie due to what he did for three quarters in a row to end this season.

Also, when looking at his high danger save percentage (HDSV%), he was fifth among goalies who played 41+ games in 2022-23, ahead of, among others, Sorokin and Jake Oettinger. Also, Saros' SV% by days of rest is at .921 with one day, which is important since workhorse goalies like him tend to start every other day to correspond to the NHL schedule of games falling mainly on Tuesdays, Thursdays and Saturdays. Where his SV% was worst is with no days rest, as it was .897; but that was just from one back-to-back. His SV% was .912 with two days rest, which occurred a total of 11 times, and it was .941 with three or more days rest, although that occurred a nearly identical ten times. So his starting schedule wasn't atypical of what we'd expect, and thus his SV% might be at or near his norm.

Part of the problem for Saros might be the Preds count on him too much. I say this because the team averaged 2.72 goals per game in 2022-23, but in the games where Saros appeared, that dropped to 2.57, whereas in 2021-22 he had 3.07 goals per game of support. Only Carter Hart and James Reimer appeared in more than half their teams' games in 2022-23 while getting less goal support. The Preds faced the sixth most SOG of any team, up from 13th in 2021-22, perhaps helping explain why Saros had just two shutouts in 2022-23 versus four in 2021-22 despite only three fewer starts. In fact, it's a wonder that Saros still managed to do otherwise essentially as well in 2022-23 as 2021-22. Will Andrew Brunette help address some of these issues? Tough to say.

While there is no question Saros is a top tier goalie. But the thing is, the sense I get is that if he wasn't as great as he was his stats would be a whole lot worse. Or to put it another way, I'm not sure I can see a universe in which Saros, as great as he is, does better in terms of Wins, SV% and GAA. As such, Saros' performance for 2022-23 was JUST RIGHT and he gets a rating of 5.5. I'd expect him to continue to post a roughly 0.919 SV%, a 2.60 or so GAA, and win 50-55% of his games, that is unless the Preds get much better under their new coach.

Connor Hellebuyck (64 games started, 37 Wins, 2 OTLs, 4 Shutouts, 2.49 GAA, .920 SV%)

Drafted a year earlier than Saros, Hellebuyck likewise was in the NHL to stay by 2016-17, but became a true #1 right away, having started 65%+ of all Jet games every season since then. But Hellebuyck has been inconsistent to say the least, as he's had three seasons with a SV% of .920+, but also three under .910. Likewise, his GAA was 2.89+ three times, but under 2.57 four times. After a 2021-22 season where many feared Hellebuyck lost his touch, he proceeded to produce his best season in terms of GSAA and quality start percentage and is a Vezina nominee. Can he maintain this consistency, or was this a last sign of greatness before a downward fall from which there will be no bouncing back? If data and comparables are to be believed, Hellebuyck's future does not look very bright.

When poolies think of Hellebuyck, the word that comes to mind is workhorse. They're not wrong, as he's started 29 more games than any other goalie since he became a regular in 2016-17. Although Hellebuyck is only 30 and he hasn't logged nearly as many playoffs games as most, all that hockey adds up. Yes, in the 90s and 2000s goalies would routinely start 70+ contests. But that was a different era.

Hellebuyck appeared in 55+ games in six of the past seven seasons, which likely would've been seven of seven were it not for the condensed schedule in 2019-20. If we look at goalies from the prior seven seasons, i.e., 2009-10 to 2015-16, and who, like Hellebuyck were not old, i.e., age 31 or younger in 2015-16, and started 55+ games many times, we get Marc-Andre Fleury and Corey Crawford, who did so six times (Fleury) and five (Crawford) in that seven year stretch and both were 31 in 2015-16, plus Jonathan Quick, who likewise did so five times but was only 29 years old by 2015-16.

How did they fare in their early 30s? Fleury and Quick each had one great season, but mostly did markedly worse. Crawford was more solid; but he had a top tier team in front of him and his GSAA was only twice in double digits. So while past history is not necessarily predictive of future outcomes, looking at what occurred with these three, and given that the Jets of the next five seasons are not poised to be anywhere near as good as the Hawks were in that 2009-10 to 2015-16 stretch, things might get worse for Hellebuyck in the future.

Hellebuyck also was by far the better goalie in the first half of the season. In both Q1 and Q2 he had a GSAA in double digits plus a SV% of .925 or higher which combined for him to have better than two-thirds of his starts be quality starts. Contrast that to the second half though, where in Q3 his stats reverted back to how they were in his poor 2021-22, and then although his GAA and SV% in Q4 both look great, his QS% was only 50%. What does this say to me? Age and fatigue are probably going to be factors for Hellebuyck if he continues to have a similar volume of starts. There's a very good chance that going forward the poor play will get poorer and will commence earlier.

There's also the reality that the Jets seemingly peaked a few seasons ago. Perhaps realizing this, they focused more of defense, allowing the 23rd most SOG per game last season, down from 8th in 2021-22, and none of their top defensemen are RFAs or UFA. But with Mark Scheifele and Blake Wheeler both set to be UFAs in 2024, as well as Nino Niederreiter. the team might go into full rebuild mode, and that would not be ideal for Hellebuyck, assuming he too isn't dealt, especially amid the possibility noted above that he's entering a time frame where we'd expect to see age-related decline.

But when it came to High Danger SV%, of the 17 goalies who played in 50+ games in 2022-23, his HDSV% ranked him only 13th, behind the likes of John Gibson, Ville Husso, and Carter Hart. That is a bad sign, as it is indicative of a goalie who either might not be as skilled as would otherwise appear, or, as I've already said is feared with Hellebuyck, has eroding skills. Also, of those 17, Hellbuyck's average distance of the goals he let in was second lowest, behind only Vitek Vanacek, who, coincidently, was one of those with a worse HDSV%. And a lower goal distance is not ideal, as those are the pucks which should be stopped by a goalie. Plus, if Hellebuyck is letting those goals in now, it's yet another sign that things might be heading in a worse direction. Especially if the team in front of him can't give him enough support to get wins. Hellebuyck got 2.97 goals per game of support this past season, which was barely less than the 3.00 rate for the Jets overall.

Many poolies declared that the Hellebuyck of old returned in 2022-23. But as we've seen, if we strip off some of the veneer, his stats are concerning, as is his age given the playing volume he had in his late 20s. For these reasons, Hellebuyck's 2022-23 was TOO HOT and he gets a rating of 8.75. Do I expect him to completely fall apart right away? Not, but I can see him fading ala Fleury and Quick, and now might be the time to try and move him in a dynasty while he's still seen as a tier one or high tier two goalie.

Alexandar Georgiev (62 games started, 40 Wins, 6 OTLs, 5 Shutouts, 2.53 GAA, .919 SV%)

The undrafted Georgiev latched onto the Rangers in 2017 and was in the NHL before the end of the 2017-18 season, impressing enough to be earmarked for the back-up job for the 2018-19 campaign. And he served that role for four seasons, doing merely okay, not even once having a Quality Start Percentage above 50%. That didn't deter the Avs though, who traded away a package of picks for the RFA rights to Georgiev and inked him to a three-year deal. All Georgiev did was tie for the NHL lead in wins for 2022-23, although he still didn't post a top tier GAA and SV%. Is Georgiev just an okay goalie boosted by playing for the Avs, or might he still get better? Most likely the latter, as digging into the data suggests he has realistic room to improve.

Yes, being a goalie for the Avs will lead to wins. But before dismissing him as a by-product of the team for which he plays, let's keep in mind that Georgiev fared better in GAA, SV%, winning percentage, GSAA, QS%, and lower Really Bad Start % than the incumbent Pavel Francouz. That says something. Georgiev's GSAA was sixth in the NHL, with all those above him having both a higher SV% and lower GAA. This shows he's doing better than it would appear from just looking at his top line stats. It also suggests he has room for improvement, as does the fact that his QS%, which, as noted above, had never been over 50% even once during his tenure with the Rangers, rose all the way to 66.1%, yet still was lower than all but one of the five who were above him in GSAA.

So why am I not saying this is the best we should expect, as with Saros? For one, we've only seen one season from Georgiev as a starter. And Georgiev seems to be finding his footing, as in 2021-22 he had two terrible quarters, while in 2022-23 he had just one. In the case of Georgiev, his bad quarter was the second quarter, with a strong second half, which is all the more important because lesser talented players could've folded under adversity, while Georgiev played through it, making the case that he's resilient and, more importantly, fit for the starting role and poised to improve.

Looking at HDSV%, there's even more to like, as his mark was fourth best among any goalie who played in more than half his team's games. It's definitely not just a case of Georgiev finding success solely due to playing for the Avs. Instead, he's helping his own cause. Beyond that, his average goal distance put him second most among the goalies who played 50+ games. In fact, no goalie had both a higher HDSV% and average goal distance, not even the most elite netminders in the game. What this shows, even further, is Georgiev took to the starting role and shined in a way that bodes very well for next season and beyond.

What's interesting is Georgiev plays best when he plays more often, as his SV% with three or more days rest was just .902, while it was at or above his .919 rate with zero, one, or two days' rest. Georgiev should be able to be put in net at least every three out of four games, if not more frequently. In other words, he's cut from a starter's cloth.

Also, Georgiev's even strength SV% was .929, with the only goalies who played in more than half their team's games with higher rates last season being Linus Ullmark and Ilyra Sorokin, who just so happen to be two of the three Vezina finalists for this season. Where Georgiev faltered was on the PK, as his SV% there was middle of the pack. That is also a factor of the Avs as a team, and can improve as he does. But of all the SV% marks to be best at, ES is the one, so he's in great shape there.

Looking at Really Bad Starts, Georgiev had a mere six, meaning fewer than one in every ten games. Even those weren't "Really" bad, as he never let in more than five goals in any single contest. Vezina nominees Sorokin and Connor Hellebuyck both had higher RBS% and each let in at least six goals one or more times. As noted above, Georgiev didn't allow adversity to send him spiraling, as after enduring a stretch where he gave up 3+ goals in seven of eight starts, with 4+ goals in half the games, he proceeded to give up one, one, two, and two goals in his next four starts. That is what you want to see from a goalie who's coming into his own.

Yes, the rundown on Georgiev sounds a bit similar to Saros' in that he's a goalie who is better than his top line stats would suggest. But unlike Saros, Georgiev has just one year under his belt as a starter, and he finished strong after a bump in the road that could've set him on a negative path, all the while with a back-up in Francouz who could have pushed Georgiev for starts. Given the superb data in terms of GSAA, RBS%, and ESSV%, it seems that Georgiev is poised to improve. As such, Georgiev's 2022-23 was TOO COLD and he gets a rating of 2.5, as I'd expect his GAA and SV% to get better in the normal course and for him to make a push to be a top five fantasy netminder for 2023-24 and seasons to come.

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Questions for Mailbag

My next monthly mailbag is already starting to fill, but you should still definitely send me questions. To get yours to me, you can either send (1) a private message to “rizzeedizzee” via the DobberHockey Forums, or (2) an email to [email protected] with “Roos Mailbag” as the subject line.