Ramblings: Sean Walker; Montreal Contracts; Pittsburgh Wingers; Some Potential Buyouts & More (June 7)

Alexander MacLean

2023-06-07

We love some big NHL trades to liven up the off-days between Stanley Cup Final games. In addition to Cliffy's write-up on yesterday's three-way deal between LA, Philly, and Columbus, I wanted to add a few thoughts of my own. Overlooked in the deal, I felt Sean Walker was someone that may be able to bounce back well this year after he was slow last year in his return from ACL & MCL surgeries. In LA there was the issue of him being caught behind their depth on defence, but now in PHI there is a lot more room for him to play more and produce. The plus-minus will likely fall as a Flyer, but the overall numbers should see an uptick otherwise.

Walker was a 30-point defenceman before his injury, doing so in 18 minutes of ice time per game, and without preferential offensive treatment. A bounce-back performance, combined with the possibility of both growth and additional ice-time/opportunity, makes him a 35+ point defenceman heading into next season.

With the rift that Tony DeAngelo seems to have with the rest of the team, there's a very real possibility that he gets bought out. If he does, then we're looking at RFA Cam York, or one of the prospects Yegor Zamula or Emil Andrae could step into some power play time. The Flyers seem not to want to give offensive opportunities to Travis Sanheim, so there is a chance (maybe 15%) that Walker gets some decent time on the top power play unit.

Philadelphia moves back in the right direction, after giving up a first for Rasmus Ristolainen they have covered up the gaffe with moving Ivan Provorov. Danny Briere's first deal as a GM looks to be a great one for the team, netting Walker, a first, two seconds, a former second round pick in Helge Grans, and a reclamation project in net, all in exchange for Ivan Provorov who seemingly was done in Philly anyways. If Briere keeps this up then the Flyers may quickly move from rudderless mess to team on the rise in very quick order. That bodes well for some of their young players, prospects, and especially Cal Petersen if he can stick in the NHL this time around.

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I'm very curious what Kyle Dubas is going to do in Pittsburgh this year. One of the complaints about him is that he didn't do enough to insulate the core-four in Toronto. In Pittsburgh there is much the same thing with the core four, and the supporting cast that needs some work. Now Pittsburgh doesn't have the same cap issues that Toronto had, but at the same time, they also barely have any futures to be able to deal from to make some creative solutions.

Of the free agents, Jason Zucker is the only one who is fantasy relevant. He will have to take a pay cut if he wants to stick in his plum gig in the top-six, but Dubas either cutting ties, or Zucker chasing the money elsewhere would be an excellent opportunity to see who else could fit. Right now, Bryan Rust, Jake Guentzel, and Rickard Rakell are three of the four top-six wingers, but there is still one spot up for grabs.

There are only eight forwards signed right now, and it could be seven if Mikael Granlund is bought out. With Alex Nylander on a one-way deal, he may actually be able to stick this year, and even better if he can do it in the top-six. He has some upside that has just never been fully realized, and his 50 points in 55 games at the AHL level last year was a great stepping stone in getting him back on track.

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With Cole Caufield inked to an eight-year extension, the Canadiens got their biggest piece of business done early in the offseason. With Nick Suzuki seemingly capping the earning number for the team, we should be able to use his number (and in later years the cap percentage) as an upper limit for contract projections. Maybe that is relevant for Kirby Dach in three years, or Juraj Slafkovsky in two.

Looking forward, the next big move Montreal needs to look at is finding a goalie fo the future, as I don't feel they have one in the system at the moment. Carter Hart is also rumoured to be moved and could be an interesting fit. Jeremy Swayman, Dan Vladar, and Spencer Knight are also possibly moveable by their respective teams and should be of interest to the Habs.

In the meantime though, it has been confirmed that the cap for 2023-24 will only rise by $1 million (to $83.5 million), which means we're again likely going to see a few shorter deals in free agency from players hoping to wait a year or two then hit a bigger payday down the line.

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I was on capfriendly yesterday, and went to check something on Carolina, and had to scroll way farther down the list than expected. They enter the offseason as one of six teams that are not yet meeting the salary floor, with only two of those teams being 2022-23 playoff teams (along with New Jersey). The team is listed at $59 million and change, with about six roster spots left to fill.

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One of those is going to be in net, likely just bringing back either Antti Raanta or Frederik Andersen, either of which would then be an excellent fantasy own next year alongside Pyotr Kochetkov.

On defence, the top five have at least one year left, but no one is grossly overpaid or locked in for too many years. There is some flexibility to either bring Shayne Gostisbehere back for a discount, or see if there is someone internal ready for a promotion. I would expect the plan to be in that order, as Gostisbehere did fit in well in Carolina, so there should be some mutual interest to make it work.

Up front, assuming Andrei Svechnikov is ready to start the year, then there is the top-six locked up, in addition to two incumbent depth forwards, and a few others like Jack Drury and Ryan Suzuki who could fit into the lineup next year. That means there is still some space for a big addition or two. They may be shorter-term rentals though, as there are a lot of incumbents up for new deals very soon.

All that to say, that I think that we will end up with two bigger additions up front, in addition to Jordan Staal returning. This would push Stefan Noesen and the young guys down in the lineup, limiting the production for whoever ends up on the fourth line. Carolina is, and can continue to be a three-line team though, so the new incoming players won't be at risk of losing much value. 

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When one of the first things a new GM does is lock up the goalie depth in the organization, it seems like it's a good indication that a trade is being looked at higher up the ladder. I remain convinced that one of Dan Vladar or Jacob Markstrom will be moved, and it should be flexible at this point based on who generates the better return.

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See you next Wednesday. In the meantime, you can find me on Twitter @alexdmaclean if you have any fantasy hockey questions or comments.

2 Comments

  1. Chris Plaza 2023-06-07 at 09:39

    What do you mean by “Philadelphia makes out well, getting first round picks in return for Rasmus Ristolainen and Ivan Provorov in successive years.”? They still have Ristolainen. They gave up a first to acquire him in 2021.

    • Alexander MacLean 2023-06-07 at 10:31

      That is just me getting my wires crossed. Fixed my train of thought there now. Thanks.

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