Ramblings: Calculating Vegas’s Stats and Florida’s Costs, Bratt Signs, Debrincat and Meier to Arbitration (Jun 16)
Ian Gooding
2023-06-16
Congratulations to the Vegas Golden Knights for winning the Stanley Cup. I don't know that many had the Golden Knights taking it all at the start of the playoffs (at least none of our writers did), but this was a team that had the best record in the Western Conference while finishing fourth overall. Not exactly out of nowhere, although they weren't nearly as trendy a pick as the Oilers in the Western Conference.
I get that the Golden Knights aren't a well-liked team among some in the hockey community because of their relatively short wait for a Stanley Cup. After all, the league granted them relatively generous expansion rules, and they rewarded loyalty to some of the original "misfits" by upgrading them for shinier toys. But credit to the Golden Knights for grabbing talent from other teams that didn't seem to be able to recognize it on their own rosters, which set a high standard for this team right off the hop. Not taking anything away from this win, but getting to the Stanley Cup Final in their first season still seems to me like the greater accomplishment than winning it in their sixth season.
Conn Smythe winner Jonathan Marchessault finished second in playoff scoring with 25 points in 22 games. His 13 goals also tied Leon Draisaitl for the playoff goal lead (someone finally caught up to Draisaitl!) I'm not using playoff performance as a reason to provide a big boost to Marchessault's fantasy value, since he's now 32 years old and has consistently been between the 0.7 to 0.9 PTS/GP range over the past five seasons.
If it doesn't seem like Marchessault is over 30, remember that he was undrafted and took the long path to the NHL. In fact, his first NHL game was with Columbus in 2012-13, which was his only game with the Blue Jackets and very few likely remember. Then on to Tampa Bay, then to Florida, and you probably know by now how he got to Vegas. It's amazing how these storylines write themselves.
Marchessault might have more name recognition as a result of his accomplishment, so the more casual hockey fans in your fantasy league might reach to draft him. In the right spot, he is a player who provides decent offense along with high shot totals. He's taken at least 3 SOG/GP during his six seasons in Vegas, and he also led the playoffs with 80 SOG. Oh, and he also led the playoffs with a plus-17.
In his first-ever trip to the playoffs, Jack Eichel led all playoff scorers with 26 points in 22 games. He also led the playoffs with 20 assists, with no other player recording more than 14 assists. You could argue that he deserved the Conn Smythe over Marchessault, but I think we're splitting hairs here. I'd give him a very minor increase in fantasy value, but the Vegas cup win was a true team effort and not carried by Eichel the way other teams might expect their star players to perform most of the heavy lifting.
With his hat trick in the cup-clinching game, Mark Stone finished the playoffs with five goals and nine points over his last five games. I discussed Stone's playoff success last week, and suffice to say I'm still intrigued by his performance. I have to make a decision on Stone in a keeper league, and he's starting to make me rethink casting him aside without any thought. There are some league complexities that I won't get into that will also affect my decision, but he's certainly recovered from the back surgeries in a way that I didn't imagine.
Adin Hill… starting goalie next season? I'm going to say timeshare (1A or 1B) option, whether that be Vegas or elsewhere. Remember Logan Thompson? He still has two years left on his contract, so at this point he's more likely to be back in Vegas than Hill next season. Not to take away from Hill, but if Antti Niemi or Jordan Binnington can lead a team to a Stanley Cup, then a cup win shouldn't suddenly elevate Hill to top-tier status.
Hill's 27 regular-season games played for Vegas this season is a career high, so he's been pushed down the depth chart on multiple teams. His playoff run should mean that at least receives more respect among NHL teams now. Over the past five seasons he's never had a GAA above 2.80 or a SV% below .900, and that included some dreadful Arizona and San Jose teams. That in itself deserves consideration.
Putting this all into perspective, the Golden Knights did not have a 30-goal scorer during the regular season – Marchessault led with 28 goals, followed by Eichel with 27 goals, and Reilly Smith with 26 goals. No other Vegas player reached 20 goals. They also went through five goalies this season, with no goalie playing more than half of their games. Thompson led the Knights with 37 games played. It goes to show that adding one more goal scorer and making a slight upgrade in net at the trade deadline may not matter in the end. Those upgrades of players like Eichel, Stone, and Alex Pietrangelo were made much earlier than that.
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With the Panthers' Cinderella run finally reaching an end, the full details of their injuries are starting to surface. Winning a Stanley Cup seems to be as much of a war of attrition as it is a hockey tournament.
Aaron Ekblad was playing through a multitude of injuries, so it should be no surprise that he is expected to miss at least the start of training camp as he will be recovering from shoulder surgery. Ekblad also played through a broken foot (Game 2 of Round 1), an oblique tear, and the OTHER shoulder dislocated during the playoffs. This is getting close to Black Knight from Monty Python stuff. Ekblad missed only one game during the playoffs, and that was in the first round. Check back for further updates during the summer that may affect his preseason draft ranking, as he may not be ready for the start of the season.
Eetu Luostarinen broke his tibia during Game 4 of the Eastern Conference Final, which is the reason he did not play in the Stanley Cup Final. Having broken my tibia before, I can tell you that skating on it isn't going to work, even though he tried (walking was impossible for me). He probably should be ready for training camp, although he will need much of the offseason to heal.
I wrongfully assumed that Matthew Tkachuk would play in Game 5 no matter what because hey, a Stanley Cup was on the line. However, a broken sternum is a serious and painful injury. I don't know whether that injury could cut into next season, but I have moved Tkachuk onto the injured list on the Top 100 Roto Rankings.
You may have already seen the Kevin Weekes report that Brandon Montour likely needs shoulder surgery and could be out three months. Assuming that's three months from today, Montour would have just enough recovery time to be ready for training camp.
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According to Bruce Garrioch, the Senators will reportedly take Alex DeBrincat to arbitration. DeBrincat would require a $9 million qualifying offer, which the Senators might not be able to afford. If successful in arbitration, the Senators would receive a 15% discount on the $9 million. Either way, it doesn't sound like DeBrincat will be with the Senators long-term, so the move is to simply allow them a little more cap space if they are unable to formulate a trade. I profiled DeBrincat a few weeks ago in the Ramblings, separate from the trade rumors.
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The New Jersey Devils took care of some important business on Thursday, signing Jesper Bratt to an eight-year, $63 million extension. For those of you in cap leagues, that works out to a $7.875 million cap hit, which comes in just under Jack Hughes' $8 million cap hit. In 2022-23, Bratt scored a career-high 32 goals while equaling his career high of 73 points from his breakout season of 2021-22. After being unsure about Bratt last offseason, I will more safely assume that he's at least a near point-per-game player who can conservatively be projected for 70-80 points.
The Devils will now need to turn their attention to extending numerous other RFAs, the most notable being Timo Meier. New Jersey sent a considerable package of picks and prospects to San Jose for Meier, so I'd expect them to eventually sign Meier, although it doesn't seem like it will be easy. According to Elliotte Friedman, the Devils intend to take Meier to arbitration just as the Sens will with DeBrincat. Signing Meier might come at the cost of Ryan Graves, who is set to become a UFA on July 1.
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Not as significant fantasy-wise, but Ethan Bear has undergone shoulder surgery resulting from an injury at the World Hockey Championship. Bear is expected to need six months recovery time, which would make him unavailable until December. As a result of the surgery, the Canucks might be able to sign RFA Bear at a bit of a discount. Any relief would be a good thing for the Canucks as they try to wiggle under the salary cap.
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As I alluded to earlier, the Top 100 Roto Rankings have been updated for June. The updates are mainly related to playoffs, injuries, and goalies, although there aren't many this month. Still, I could use your input, so feel free to leave it and I will consider it for next month.
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Follow me on Twitter @Ian_Gooding for more fantasy hockey.