Every Sunday, we share 21 Fantasy Rambles from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s 'Daily Ramblings'.

Writers/Editors: Ian Gooding, Michael Clifford, Alexander MacLean and Dobber

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1. The NHL Draft is less than a week away and free agency starts a few days after that. Before we get too far ahead, I want to talk about the Draft.

As I often say, and repeat at this time of year, I am not a scout. I don’t evaluate prospects in any official capacity, here or elsewhere, and I don’t spend several hundred hours every winter watching games from the WHL or the second-tier Swedish men’s league. I watch events like the World Juniors or the Memorial Cup to get a feel for some of the high-end guys, but it’s not extensive viewing. It is a full-time job just keeping up with the NHL and all that entails.

For that reason, I rely on several resources for prospect evaluation. Of course, I will link our 2023 Dobber Hockey Prospects Report here. It was released earlier this month, and I’ve been digging thought it slowly since then. There is everything fantasy owners need to know about several current prospects from each team as well as a dive into the incoming group. Our Prospects team has worked really hard over the last year to get to this point so help support them and us by grabbing your copy.

Elsewhere, Corey Pronman at The Athletic is one writer I read a lot; the prospect model built by Byron Bader is something I refer to as well. Also, a shout out to Tony Ferrari of Dobber Prospects fame who also has his rankings up at The Hockey News. I will read others as well, and will mention them if there’s something I reference from them, but the Prospects Report, The Athletic, The Hockey News, and the draft model are my main prospect sources. (june23)

2. So, with the Draft coming soon, let’s take a Ramblings to talk about a few prospects that have stuck out to me, goalies excluded. We won’t need to dive into the likes of Connor Bedard, Adam Fantilli, or Matvei Michkov because there is plenty out there on them as it is.

Outside of the high-end names, players will stick out to me for a few different reasons:

• Whenever I see “but there are questions/concerns about his size,” that is a player I circle. I really don’t know how much more evidence general managers need to just draft the best hockey players they can, whether they’re 5-10 or 6-2. The guy that tied for the 2023 playoff lead in goals, and is now a Conn Smythe winner, is 5-9. It isn’t to say size can’t be very helpful – of course it can – but GMs continue to underrate smaller players. They’ve gotten better at fixing that bias, but we’re not all the way there yet.
• Whenever I see “but there are questions about his motivation/motor/desire,” that is also a player I circle. Not to say there aren’t players that don’t care to the level they need to and rely on their natural talent, but it’s not hard to see athletes being motivated by the idea of playing for multiple contracts with values in the tens of millions of dollars each rather than skating with a junior team for grocery money.
• Outside of those two flags, players with wide-ranging forecasts are also interesting. Sometimes a skater will be inside the top-12 on one list and in the second round on another. Those guys are always of interest; the less interesting guys are the ones with a consensus.
• The last thing that catches my eye is when a player succeeds in a wide range of areas but has one specific skill, usually skating, which is lacking. To that I say: this is why skills/skating coaches exist. (june23)

3. With that long-winded intro out of the way, let’s talk about some players that interest me for the 2023 Draft class, in no particular order.

Zach Benson (LW)

We will start with one of the more obvious ones. Benson is ranked fifth in our Prospects Report, sixth by the prospect model, but much later by Pronman. Many of the scouts (and the model) all agree that he has a lot of high-end skill, and is responsible defensively, a combination that should have him as a slam-dunk top-5 pick. Pronman has concerns about his skating, and that’s a fair concern given what others have said about his game. What I’ll say is that the NHL is littered with high-end players that had skating concerns whether they were high picks (John Tavares) or not (Jamie Benn). His small stature is a difference from those other forwards, but it’s not something I’m hung up about as a forward. Skating is a skill players can improve, and it doesn’t take as long as we might think. If a guy has tremendous skills at both ends but the thing holding him back from being a high draft pick in a loaded draft class is just his skating, well, I’d be perking my ears up a bit if my favourite team had a first-round pick somewhere between 6-10. (june23)

4. Andrew Cristall (LW)

This is honestly one of my favourite prospects of the entire class just because of the wide range of opinions on him. Here is how he grades out across various publications:

• Dobber Prospects: 14^th
• Corey Pronman: 68^th
• Tony Ferrari (Hockey News): 18^th
• Scott Wheeler (The Athletic): 13^th
• Hockey Prospecting Model: 6^th by Star potential
• TSN Midseason Ranking: 18^th
• Elite Prospects: 19^th

Seven different sources, five in the teens, one in the top-6, and one in the third round. I would suspect that if we removed the two extremes, the truth lay somewhere in the mid-to-late first round but it makes him a guy to watch on the day of the Draft. It wouldn’t be a shock to see him go, say, 13^th to Buffalo, and it wouldn’t be a shock to see him go, say, 24th to Nashville. Cristall finished his WHL season with as many points (95) as Buffalo’s ninth overall pick from 2022 in Matthew Savoie, despite eight fewer games played on a Kelowna roster that scored 115 (!) fewer goals than Savoie’s Winnipeg team. My bet is he’s really, really good, skating be damned, and an NHL team will get an excellent player if (when) he falls outside the top-12. (june23)

5. Mikhail Gulyayev (LD)

And now we get to Gulyayev, a guy that interests me for a lot of the same reasons as Cristall: the wide-ranging opinions. The Prospects Report has the 5-10 defenseman just inside the first round at 30^th overall, the same spot as Pronman and Elite Prospects. Meanwhile, Bob McKenzie had him in the mid-20s in January, Scott Wheeler has him in the early 20s, THN's Ryan Kennedy has him in the late 20s, and the prospect model has him third (!!!) by Star probability, behind only Michkov and Bedard.

The crux, as it is with many Russian prospects, is when they’ll be able to get out of their KHL contracts. For Gulyayev, he’s signed for two more years, meaning he likely won’t get to the NHL until he’s 20 years old, at the earliest. He should be a target for teams that have multiple first-round picks like Chicago and Philadelphia. 

[Follow the link for more…] (june23)

6. Elsewhere, the Devils have extended Erik Haula, signing him to a three-year contract worth $3.15 million per season. In his only season with New Jersey, Haula scored 42 points in 80 games, good for a 0.53 PTS/GP pace. That is within the range of the 0.4 to 0.6 PTS/GP that he has averaged over the past five seasons. In that sense, it would be very easy to project Haula to finish between 40 and 45 points next season. That being said, in 2022-23 Haula finished with his highest shot total (164 SOG) and shot-per-game total (2.1 SOG/GP) since his career high of 55 points in 2017-18, when he was a member of the first-year Vegas misfits.

You may also recall that Haula was acquired from the Bruins a year ago for Pavel Zacha. (june24)

7. Another one of many stats you can find over at Frozen Tools is the Home/Away split, which compares a player’s home stats to their away stats. I can remember when this was a bigger deal when there weren’t so many stats and analytics, so the perception might be that these splits don’t matter as much anymore and that it’s obvious enough that players generally perform better at home than on the road. The interesting part might then be how much the gap is.  

With that in mind, there might still be some value in pulling home/away splits. For example, if you are trying to decide which of two or more players to start, home/away splits are one of several considerations. You should also run through other factors such as actual player value, overall matchup, hot/cold streak, line combinations, and possibly other variables. [For more on this, follow the link…] (june24)

8. Related to the above, Tim Stutzle had the highest home minus road differential, scoring 58 points at home while scoring “just” 32 points on the road. This was more about a player who was absolutely dominant at the Canadian Tire Centre, as only six players recorded more points at home than Stutzle. The more interesting number might be Stutzle leading the Senators in both goals (39) and points (90) in just his third NHL season. 

It’s also worth mentioning that Stutzle scored 25 goals at home and just 14 goals on the road while his overall shooting percentage was a slightly higher than normal 17.1%. To that, he shot 21.2% at home but just 12.7% on the road. (june24)

9. As for Evan Bouchard, he scored 16 more points on the road than at home. That was 28 points on the road but just 12 points at home. It’s worth mentioning that Bouchard was at his hottest during the final quarter of the season, when he finished with 19 points in 19 games. That coincided with Tyson Barrie being traded to Nashville and Bouchard assuming PP1 duties. A total of 11 of those 19 games were away from home, so his deployment was much more of a factor than the fact that he was playing on the road. (june24)

10. The Montreal Canadiens re-signed forward Sean Monahan to a one-year deal a couple days ago. Though he played just 25 games with the Habs, he actually managed a four-year high in points per minute at 5-on-5. He had also been earning some top PP time, so maybe there’s fantasy value to be had as a late dart in fantasy drafts.

As a Habs fan, I’ll never grow tired of seeing these quotes from Montreal players about coach Martin St-Louis: “Marty really helped me love the game more and more…”

One of my grand theories is that a big (the biggest?) part of coaching at the professional level is just ensuring your players are happy and confident. A lot of tactics are from the assistant coaches and video coaches anyway. If the players don’t enjoy coming to the rink/stadium/field, and/or don’t believe they can do what you’re asking of them, nothing else really matters. Monahan is far from the first Hab to say something similar. (june22)

11. The Hockey Hall of Fame selection committee made its inductees announcement on Wednesday and they include a lot of NHL goalies: Henrik Lundqvist, Mike Vernon, and Tom Barrasso. The inclusion of Pierre Turgeon finally happened, as did Canadian women's hockey legend Caroline Ouellette. In the builder category, they are adding Pierre Lacroix and Ken Hitchcock.

I'm not here to gripe about one of the biggest moments possible in the life of a hockey player/coach/manager. I am here to say: when is Alex Mogilny getting in? (june22)

12. Adam Gaudette was re-signed by St. Louis to a one-year, two-way contract. Gaudette always interested me because it seemed as if he had a scoring touch in Vancouver; his shooting percentage from 2017-2020 was around the 65^th percentile and similar to names like Joe Pavelski, Jeff Skinner, and Nikolaj Ehlers. Then he had health issues and never really got on track. He will have another chance in St. Louis but has to make the team so the fantasy value is nil until he shows signs of life. (june22)

13. Today, let’s look at some forwards who contributed a lot to their team’s rush plays. It will be like scoring chance contributions in that we are looking for an individual’s rush shots and their assists on a teammate’s rush shots. Those rush contributions will be tallied for 5-on-5 only, and on a 60-minute basis (RC/60).

For example, Artemi Panarin:

Peter Laviolette was hired recently as the new bench boss for the New York Rangers and one thing I mentioned upon his hiring was his penchant for focusing more on forechecking than playing off the rush. Whether he forces that upon the Rangers, most of whose stars do not play that way, remains to be seen. But Panarin has 341 points in 268 games with the Rangers – 104 points every 82 games – playing a lot off the rush. If he does have to change that, it’s fair to wonder what it does to his 100-point potential.

(Follow the link for more…] (june22)

14. I want to go over some Bruins goalies. They signed Brandon Bussi, their number-three netminder to a one-year extension last Monday. It’s interesting to see that he didn’t get one of the fairly standard two-year deals that has a full one-way term for the second year (one-way means he makes the same amount in the NHL as he would at the AHL level, and it’s usually an indication NHL teams are going to keep these players with the pro club).

Right now, Bussi is stuck behind Jeremy Swayman (RFA), and Linus Ullmark (two years remaining). It is possible one gets moved this offseason, but with that extension to Bussi this year it looks like that won’t be the Bruins’ plan A. After an excellent year at the AHL level, the 24-year-old is getting close to being NHL ready, and though he may not be more than a future backup, he could see some games with the Bruins as soon as this year if there is a trade/injury. (june21)

15. With Vegas having won the cup, and Seattle’s upward trajectory apparent this year, we’re all familiar with the NHL expansion process. Years ago, when we had the draft for Vegas, it was a fun and new exercise to review in the summer and gave us tons of material to write about. When Seattle’s draft was running two years ago, we knew how the process worked, what to look for, and in some ways, what to expect.

What I think I didn’t quite appreciate at the time, was how it forced us to take a deep dive into each team’s situation, and how we viewed their roster construction. I think it would be fun to try that again this offseason in the calm before the storm, evaluating what an expansion team this summer would look like. We’re going to call this team the Atlanta Thrashers just for fun. [Follow the link for more…] (june21)

16. A short while ago I gave you some other options in the likely situation that you are unable to secure Connor Bedard in your keeper league. I suggested possible teammates who could play with Bedard, thus experiencing a spike in production. But what if you fail in acquiring any of those guys?

Well, there’s a Plan B.

Adam Fantilli is the Jack Eichel to Bedard’s Connor McDavid. He can be everything that Eichel can be – minus the injuries. Can you imagine the kind of track record Eichel would have right now if he never got injured (as seems to be the case nearly every season)? That’s Fantilli. Barring one hell of an all-time draft shocker, Fantilli will be drafted second overall. And barring a slightly-less shocker that sees Anaheim trade the pick, he’ll be selected by the Ducks.

Fantilli will step into the NHL right away, as it’s highly unlikely that he returns to college for his second year and it’s just as unlikely that he gets cut from training camp and opts to play in the OHL (North Bay has his rights). He’ll be in an Anaheim uniform in the fall. (june20)

17. Fantilli is a centerman, and he’s joining a team that was very weak at the faceoff circle. Ryan Strome took the most draws, but his success rate was just 43.8%. Adam Henrique‘s 51.1% was the team best (500 faceoffs or more). Trevor Zegras took 573 draws and won just 41.4% of them. So yes, I can see Zegras getting pushed to the wing and play on Fantilli’s line. If Fantilli can have even moderate success at the dot (say around 45%), then the two should stick. So who will win the lottery and take that sweet spot on the other wing? Aside from signing a free agent, here are my favorite candidates:

Frank Vatrano – Not as sexy as the other names below, but Vatrano is a proven 20-goal scorer who could easily make it 30 if he had a stud centerman. In his favor is the fact that he’s getting paid $3.65M AAV and he’s coming off a hot streak that saw him post 16 goals in the last 37 games. Of the other candidates I list here, his trade ask in your fantasy league will be the lowest (even lower than Comtois’s).

Mason McTavish – Probably everyone’s preference for this spot, and his owner will certainly be hanging onto him for dear life, swearing up and down that he’ll be playing with Fantilli for sure. But…I don't know… Much will depend on whether Greg Cronin wants to load up his lines, or spread out the offense. And if he loads up his top line, then it will be Terry, and not McTavish, who gets the spot. And if Cronin spreads out the offense, I tend to think it will be Vatrano getting the spot. McTavish may not be the favorite you think he is. Picture Vatrano – Fantilli – Zegras and then McTavish – Strome – Terry. Those are two solid lines. Either way, McTavish gets a nice upgrade in linemates. His asking price in keeper leagues will be too high (as is the price of most sophomores with any kind of upside, even without Fantilli), and I wouldn't even bother inquiring about him unless his owner is generally easy to trade with.

Troy Terry – After two straight season being amongst the team’s top two scorers, Terry is a legit producer regardless of who he plays with. But if Cronin wants to load up that top line, Terry will be on it, hands down. If you can secure Terry for the price of a 67-point player (which he was two seasons ago), then he’s definitely worth grabbing because the upside as a Fantilli linemate bumps up his ceiling.

Max Comtois – Here is a long shot, as Comtois has nearly faded into irrelevance. But three things to keep in mind. One, he is still just 24. Two, he is entering his BT (Breakout Threshold) season. And three, he led the Ducks in scoring when he was 21. Injuries have played a role in his decline these last two seasons as well. You can probably get him off the waiver wire, as I doubt many fantasy owners hung onto him at this point. A long shot, but he shouldn’t be dismissed.

As for prospects at forward, the cupboard is pretty bare right now. We’ll need to see who else the team drafts next week. If you’re considering Nathan Gaucher – don’t. He’s at least two years off, likely three. And once he arrives, he’ll likely start slowly those first couple of campaigns.

PS – If both Fantilli and Zegras struggle to win faceoffs, the two will likely be split up, with Henrique taking a turn on one of their lines. That’s something to keep in mind. (june20)

18. The Ducks' power play will see an upgrade with Fantilli, as well. Here are some Ducks defensemen to focus on:

Cam Fowler (of course) – Fowler is coming off of his first 82-game season in 11 years, as well as career highs in assists (38), points (48), IPP (51.1%) and points-per-game average (0.59). He also had a career low in secondary assist percentage (just 44.7% of his assists). As for a key stat in which he was actually fifth for his career? Power-play points! Can you imagine running a power play, even sharing time with Drysdale, with Fantilli? I think that, despite being 31, Fowler has another level of production.

Jamie Drysdale (of course) – After missing pretty much an entire season, I wonder if Drysdale begins the campaign in the AHL for 10 or 15 games before coming up and resuming his NHL career. He has very good upside, similar to Fowler – but less than the two players on this list below. There will be a short window in which Drysdale can seize the PP QB role before Mintyukov and/or Zellweger arrive, but he’s still worth taking a chance on.

Pavel Mintyukov – Despite being a year younger than Zellweger, I lean towards Mintyukov if discussing which player has the best odds of making the jump straight to the NHL this year. Both Mintyukov and Zellweger are probably a full year away, but both have the ability to surprise in training camp and seize the job. Because of his size advantage and overall skill level, I lean towards Mintyukov. Long term, this is the guy you want. Fowler will just be a stopgap and Drysdale will be a secondary/supporting player for Mintyukov (or Zellweger).

Olen Zellweger – Listen. With prospects of this high caliber, one is as good as another. You just don’t know until you see how they fare against bigger, faster pros. If you take Zellweger instead of Mintyukov, you have just as much of a chance of success as if you went the other way. Both have very high upside and similar arrival expectations. Zellweger is a little smaller, but a little older. Both prospects are left shots, so I suspect that whomever gets a foothold on the top PP job first, gets to keep it. As with Mintyukov, Zellweger is probably not your solution for the season ahead, but instead more of a longer-term guy. (june20)

19. The Draft next week will be the 60^th for the NHL, and it will be in Nashville for the first time since 2003. In that draft, Marc-Andre Fleury was taken first overall, and Shea Weber was taken 49^th. That draft is recognized as one of the best ever, also seeing picks Eric Staal, Patrice Bergeron, Ryan Getzlaf and Joe Pavelski. In fact, 16 players from that 2003 draft have appeared in more than 1000 NHL games. Is history repeating itself? This draft next week is honestly pretty stacked (in case you didn’t know!).

For just the second time in history, Chicago has the first overall pick. Of course, the other time was when they chose Patrick Kane.

Anaheim chose second on two other occasions: Oleg Tverdovsky (1994) and Bobby Ryan (2005).

Columbus has had three picks previously in the top three: Rick Nash (first in 2002), Ryan Murray (second in 2012) and Pierre-Luc Dubois (third in 2016).

San Jose hasn’t chosen in the top five since 1998, when they chose Brad Stuart third overall.

The last time Montreal drafted in the top five in two consecutive years? That was in 1971 when they chose Guy Lafleur first overall, and then 1972 when they grabbed Steve Shutt at fourth. The last time Montreal picked fifth overall was when they took Carey Price. (june20)

20. I want to look at defensemen with high (or low) passing efficiency in 2022-23. This will be power-play data, but strictly from 5-on-4 situations, and not every power-play strength.  mong the blue liners in the sample, the average percentage of scoring chances generated from all passes made is 16.7%. The super-efficient players are over 24% and the inefficient players are under 9%. 

For example: It is not a surprise to see Cale Makar at the top of the list, but to have Vince Dunn nipping at his heels right behind him certainly is. Not that Dunn is a bad player – he’s quite good – but when we’re talking about super-efficient, high-end power-play defensemen, he’s not the second name I think of after Makar, and he’s far ahead of third on this list, too.

The weird part is that Justin Schultz had a much higher on-ice PP goal rate this season, and a much higher points rate. There is a lot more to a power play than a single player playing well, especially on a team that doesn’t have several elite forwards like Colorado, Toronto, Tampa Bay, Edmonton, Boston, Dallas, or Florida. Schultz did carry the puck more often, so maybe that was part of it, but it doesn’t matter a whole lot for right now. Until Seattle accumulates more high-end forwards, and the PPTOI is concentrated on one unit, it will be hard to rely on either Dunn or Schultz for 20 PPPs. (june19)

21. And in case you’ve been away…

NEW TOOL – AHL Line Combinations and Reporting Tools!

Yes, you read that right. AHL game logs and stats that include IPP! We can’t get 100% accurate line combos, but we can get the line that was out there for every goal that is scored, which over time becomes close enough. You can now do your prospects research even more thoroughly!

Check out our ‘AHL Central’ hub here.

AHL Line Combinations? AHL Line Combinations!

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Have a good week, folks – stay safe!!

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