Ramblings: Value Changes from Free Agency, Draisaitl Hat Tricks (July 9)

Ian Gooding

2023-07-09

Even though we are still waiting on a few notable free agents such as Vladimir Tarasenko, Patrick Kane, and Matt Dumba, the dust has mainly settled on 2023 NHL free agency. You can view the DobberHockey Fantasy Takes of each of the major signings here.

If you don't have time to read through each one, I'll save you the trouble in bringing up a few players that seem the most affected by these recent transactions. You'll notice that some are the signed players themselves, while others on the team may be directly affected.

Joonas Korpisalo

When I was writing my own takes, this one jumped out at me right away. Not necessarily because Korpisalo is a far superior goalie than Anton Forsberg, because I think he's only marginally better (Korpisalo was much better in 2022-23, but go back three seasons and it flips the other way – Frozen Tools Goalie Compare). It's because of the contract Korpisalo received from Ottawa: five years at $4 million. If you're not sure which goalie a team views as its starter, just follow the money. To compare, Forsberg is signed for two more years at $2.75 million. You can probably figure it out from there.

Korpisalo's contract reminds me of the one Linus Ullmark signed with the Bruins, except Ullmark's is four years at $5 million. Both were lower-profile goalies who were handed free agent contracts that surpassed expectations in terms of both term and amount. Whether he delivers or not, Korpisalo will be given every opportunity to be the starter in Ottawa. Teams generally don't give up quickly on their sunk costs. Korpisalo has been much better since undergoing hip surgery at the end of the 2021-22 season, which should be a reason to draft him as a top-20 goalie.

Tyler Bertuzzi

Bertuzzi looked like a great fit in Boston, in particular because he scored 10 points in seven playoff games. Yet the Bruins couldn't squeeze him in, and now he's on a divisional rival. He's missed his share of games over the last two seasons due to injuries and COVID travel restrictions, but if he can remain healthy, he could pay off for the Leafs. He's also in another contract season, having signed for only one season.

Bertuzzi seemed glued to the hip of Dylan Larkin for much of his time in Detroit, but in Boston his linemates tended to vary with anyone from David Pastrnak to Trent Frederic. His linemates in Toronto could be the best of all if he can slide into Michael Bunting's old spot beside Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner. Bertuzzi is at least a slightly better player than Bunting, although the two play a similar hard-nosed style. If he can stay on that line and stay healthy, Bertuzzi has potential to reach the Top 100 Roto Rankings again.

John Klingberg/Morgan Rielly

I'm on the fence as to which defenseman will be running the Leafs' power play. It won't be both, considering that the big four forwards are mainstays on there, unless William Nylander is traded. Dobber seems to think it will be Klingberg, and you can read his reasons here. I will say that Rielly averaged more power-play time than Klingberg last season as well as more power-play points (Frozen Tools Player Compare). As well, the contract situation still heavily favors Rielly, who has a larger cap hit and term (Klingberg is signed for only one year).

I'm not saying that Rielly will beyond a doubt run the first-unit power play. Klingberg's value is maximized when he receives that opportunity, and he also has four 20 PPP seasons under his belt. Rielly's value in particular takes a hit with the Klingberg signing, which isn't good news coming off a season where he produced his lowest point-per-game total (0.63 PTS/GP) in six seasons. This situation could be confusing for fantasy managers to navigate through during drafts, but whichever defenseman is on the Leafs' first power play (26.0 PP%, 2nd in NHL) stands to have a big season.

Erik Gustafsson

Gustafsson seems to produce on the power play when given the opportunity, as he did with Washington last season when John Carlson was injured (28 points in his last 30 games as a Capital) and in Chicago in 2018-19. Yet he was a frequent healthy scratch after being traded to Toronto, who had already stockpiled a bunch of other defensemen for their playoff run. Defensive deficiencies have a lot to do with why he can't stay in the lineup regularly.

Unfortunately, the same situation could apply in New York. Gustafsson won't unseat Adam Fox on the top power play. If Fox is injured, then Jacob Trouba, K'Andre Miller, and even youngster Zac Jones could get looks on the first-unit power play. If Gustafsson happens to be that guy, add him quickly. Otherwise, he's not worth drafting except as a handcuff to Fox in the very deepest of leagues with considerable bench space.

Phillip Danault

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Will Danault become more of a defensive specialist with the acquisition of Pierre-Luc Dubois? Danault is coming off a career-high 54 points last season, which includes an outlier 20 power-play points. Prior to 2022-23, Danault's career high in power-play points was four. Yes, 4 PPP. The Kings moved out two forwards (Gabriel Vilardi and Alex Iafallo) when trading for Dubois, so Danault's power-play time may not be affected.

Danault may be leaned on even more heavily as a defensive forward, though. His offensive zone starts have been below 50% for eight consecutive seasons, and that number isn't going to increase with Dubois likely to take more offensive draws. Dubois's OZ Start % has been above 50% in each of his six seasons, and it has been above 60% in five of those six seasons. Danault is a fine two-way forward, but this might be a season in which his real-life value far surpasses his fantasy value.

When you go to the Frozen Tools and look at all the stats, you will see a stat called Draisaitl Hat Tricks. You may be wondering what that is. For any stat that you show, you can click on the "Click for more info" link and it will explain it to you. In this case, a Draisaitl Hat Trick (DHT) is at least one goal, one assist, and a minus ranking. This stat was the idea of Frozen Tools developer Eric Daoust, who several years ago wanted to recognize the effort of Leon Draisaitl on an underwhelming Oilers team while referencing the Gordie Howe Hat Trick (goal, assist, fight).

I would like to take this opportunity to reiterate that the Draisaitl Hat Trick is NOT a completely disparaging stat. Okay, it is a little bit because of the minus, but scoring a goal and adding an assist in an NHL game is an accomplishment. Oilers Twitter thought I was being disrespectful with the term a couple years ago, but two-thirds of this stat is positive! I also realize that plus/minus isn't taken that seriously anymore, but I didn't say this stat was serious either.

Before I discuss league leaders, I'll mention that I've noticed that league leaders in this category tend to have high power-play point totals. Often at least one of the points from a DHT is on the power play, which does not get added to the plus/minus. Conversely, the player is on the ice for at least one even-strength goal against.

Now for the league leaders. Nikita Kucherov led the league with 5 DHT last season, Examining Kucherov's game log further, he recorded power-play points in four of the five games in which he had Draisaitl Hat Tricks. In fact, he was a power-play-point powerhouse last season with 49 PPP. Only the Oilers' trio of Draisaitl, Connor McDavid, and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins had more power-play points than Kucherov.

Six players tied for second with 4 DHT. For the record, Draisaitl had "just" 2 DHT in 2022-23.

The leader of Draisaitl Hat Tricks with 18 since Draisaitl made his debut in 2014-15 is none other than… McDavid! What, you were thinking someone else? Kucherov is second during that span with 16, while Brent Burns, Sidney Crosby, and John Tavares are tied for third with 15. Draisaitl is sixth with 14.

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2 Comments

  1. Striker 2023-07-09 at 15:02

    Reilly will play more 1st unit PP time than Klingberg but it will get switched up occasionally but fore me why mess with success?
    Tor had the 2nd best PP in the league in 22/23 & the best PP in the league in 21/22 with Reilly with the big 4!

    • Dobber 2023-07-09 at 19:41

      Because Rielly was not a part of that success. Not even 45% IPP on the power play. They score, and he had nothing to do with it. Anything under 50% for me is at risk of losing their spot on that PP unit.

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