Single-season fantasy drafts won't start for about another two months (or more), but in the dog days of summer you might already find yourself preparing. It's never too early, I suppose.

For example, in my last Top 100 Roto Rankings, I had Linus Ullmark listed as my top goalie. A reader commented that he was surprised that Ullmark was in that spot. I am certainly open to changing that, but after thinking some more about who the top goalie should be in 2023-24 fantasy drafts, I'm not sure who that goalie should be. What I do know is who I think the top FIVE goalies should be. I'll try to make a case for each of them to be #1, and provide reasons why they shouldn't be.

Linus Ullmark

Case for: He's your reigning Vezina Trophy winner, having led all qualified starters with a 1.89 GAA and .938 SV%. He also tied for the league lead in wins (40) with Alexandar Georgiev in spite of playing in just 49 games. That means he earned a win over 80% of the time he started. If you picked someone else to start over Ullmark, you probably made the wrong call most of the time. If he can maintain this level or even close to it, he's still your #1 fantasy goalie.

Case against: Unfortunately, there's a few. The playoff performance proved that he might be mortal, or just simply functions better if he alternates starts with Jeremy Swayman. That takes us to the next reason, which is that I'd expect him to start only around 50% of the time again due to the timeshare, which might limit his win total. speaking of that win total, the Bruins very likely won't replicate their Presidents' Trophy 2022-23 season, which aided Ullmark's success. He also doesn't have the multi-season track record of success that some of the other goalies on this list.

Igor Shesterkin

Case for: He was widely considered the first goalie to draft in fantasy leagues in 2022-23 after posting a 2.07 GAA and .935 SV% en route to a Vezina Trophy. His numbers dipped a bit in 2022-23 (2.48 GAA/.916 SV%), but he still delivered a very reasonable 60% quality start rate. In his four NHL seasons, Shesterkin has never had a GAA above 2.62 or a SV% below .916. In other words, you know you'll receive above-average goaltending, which is a hard thing to guarantee during this period of scoring inflation.

Case against: He didn't post the standout numbers that Ullmark did last season. In fact, Shesterkin was worth benching at one point in 2022-23, when he posted a 3.33 GAA and .883 SV% in 12 games in Quarter 3. Only three of those 12 games resulted in quality starts. To his credit, he rebounded in Quarter 4 with a 1.83 GAA and .940 SV% in 13 games. The rough patch might stick out for those who rostered Shesterkin last season, though.

Andrei Vasilevskiy

Case for: The Big Cat is a goaltending machine who has spent considerable time as the top goalie in fantasy the last few years, and for good reason. He has recorded at least 30 wins in each of the last six seasons. His 222 wins over that span is tops among all goalies. To compare to Shesterkin, Vasilevskiy has no worse than a 2.65 GAA and .915 SV% over the past seven seasons. At worst, he'll also deliver above-average goaltending while proving capable of a heavy workload (at least 50 games in six of the past seven seasons). At best, he's the biggest cat in the crease.

Case against: Wear and tear, and the possibility that Tampa Bay is trending downward. Vasilevskiy went on three consecutive Stanley Cup runs from 2020 to 2022. Sure, two of those were COVID-shortened seasons, but those are a lot of games played and they have to catch up at some point. The fact that the Bolts have retained their core should mean that remain competitive, but Vasilevskiy's win total (and ultimately his ratios) have already started a slow downward trend – 2.21 GAA in 2020-21 to 2.49 GAA in 2021-22 to 2.65 GAA in 2022-23.

Ilya Sorokin

Case for: He's finally the unquestioned starter for the Islanders, having finished in the top 5 in games played (62) last season. It also helps that the Islanders play in a goalie-friendly system that has been maintained since Barry Trotz left. As well, no goalie that played at least 50 games had a better goals-against average (2.33) or save percentage (.924) than Sorokin. Only Connor Hellebuyck had more quality starts than Sorokin (43), a sign that you could count on Sorokin on a game-by-game basis.

Case against: Goalies are often a product of the team around them, so it's worth a reminder that the Islanders are a borderline playoff team. Sorokin was one of nine goalies to finish with at least 31 wins, but all of the other goalies in this top-5 group and more posted more wins. I don't anticipate that the Isles will be much different this season, but wins are still a category in many fantasy league (that's a whole other debate, though). If the Isles slide, then Sorokin's fantasy value does too, even if he is bailing them out. 

Jake Oettinger

Case for: Oettinger is a goalie on the rise, and he's only 24. He's been at least dependable in his three NHL seasons, posting a career 2.41 GAA and .916 SV%. There's that above-average goaltending that you can count on. He was another of five goalies to play in at least 60 games, and he tied for third with 37 wins. The Stars should be strong again this season, which means his win total should be fine. At his best, Oettinger has been nearly unbeatable, having posted a 1.81 GAA and .954 SV% in a first-round series LOSS in seven games to Calgary in 2021-22.

Case against: Just as he's had playoff success, more recently he's had playoff struggles. You could even argue that the Stars made it to the Conference Final in spite of Oettinger last season, as he posted an ordinary 3.06 GAA and .895 SV%. In his 19 playoff games, Oettinger also had six really bad starts – nearly one-third of his games. This is his most recent body of work. He'll most likely rebound, but he'll need a strong start to the season. The struggles prove that he has his weaknesses just like anyone else on this list.

Who is your number one? This is a tough call, and I don't think I'm ready to decide here. I think these goalies are worth their own tier, though.

Looking at my rankings again, I would give an honorable mention as my 6 and 7 goalies (you decide which order) to Hellebuyck and Georgiev. Maybe that's a very slender Tier 2. Could more goalies be added to that group? You can find view the stats of the goalies listed in the Top 100 Roto Rankings here.

Coincidentally, this week's Frozen Tools Forensics will list the top 5 goalies from the past season (not all the same names) as well as the five most disappointing goalies and the five best goalies that were mainly undrafted. If you like goalies, you are in the right place right now.

–

The Fantasy Guide will be available on July 28. Purchase yours today! I guess I better get back to work on my contribution for the guide. Talk to you tomorrow.  In the meantime, follow me on Twitter and now Threads.