Dobber’s 18th annual Fantasy Guide PDF and Draft List spreadsheet is *NOW* available!! In fact, it was made available two days earlier than originally projected. Sleepers, rookies, stock drops, goalies, schedule breakdown, team-by-team projections and analysis, and more! Buy it as a standalone product, or get it as a discount as part of a package.

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Some more summer hockey reading for you: We will be starting the Offseason Fantasy Grades team articles in less than two weeks. The first article is scheduled to appear on Tuesday August 8, and they will continue into September. You will be able to find the links to all of them here. For now, you can scroll down and read last season's articles and reflect on how things are with each team a year later.

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Last week I listed off several potential bubble keepers in one of my leagues. With the possible exception of Alexander Kerfoot, I plan to keep all of those players, mainly because of their low salaries but also because of their peripherals.

Today, I'll venture into another one of my leagues, where the keeper rules are more restricted. The basic rule in this league is that I have the option of keeping players that fall below a certain number of points and aren't "under contract". Their contracts aren't tied to real-life contracts, but instead are related to terms that you can give to a player when you win them in a slow auction bidding process. The rules are a bit complex after that, so I may not explain my keeper decision in my context in case it doesn't fit with yours.

Below are the forwards I need to make a decision on, along with some general observations. I'll list the defensemen and goalies tomorrow.

Nino Niederreiter

Just like in real life (five NHL teams), it seems like Niederreiter has moved from team to team in this league. That has become more apparent recently, as Niederreiter has played for three teams over the past two seasons. With just a year remaining on his current contract and the Jets in a state of flux, it's possible that he could be on the move again by the trade deadline or next summer.

Niederreiter scored four goals and three assists in his first eight games with the Jets, mainly playing on a line with Mark Scheifele and being used on the first-unit power play. Yet his power-play time eventually started to diminish, and so too did his overall production, as he scored just six points over his next 14 games. He was strong during the playoffs with four points in five games.

If Scheifele happens to be traded and an equivalent center is not acquired, then Niederreiter's value could fall. That being said, he's probably safe as a 40–50-point player barring injury. It'll be up to you to determine whether that makes the cut in your keeper league.

Alexander Barabanov

On a Sharks team that has been crumbling for the last few seasons, Barabanov has emerged as one bright spot. In his second full NHL season, the 29-year-old Barabanov scored at a 57-point pace while logging first-unit power-play minutes. That's not bad, right? It's not all that good when you take into account other categories. Barabanov have averaged fewer than two shots per game in each of his three NHL seasons. In addition, even Erik Karlsson's plus/minus was better than Barabanov's minus-31. 

Even with the acquisition of Anthony Duclair, Barabanov should be able to maintain his current PP1 spot. He was on the first power play even when Timo Meier was still with the Sharks, while his only other real competition might be Kevin Labanc and William Eklund (eventually). Expect more similar production from Barabanov next season, but likely not a huge breakout. He should make for a decent late-round sleeper in single-season league drafts, though.

Matias Maccelli

Maccelli is on here because he had a similar number of league points to Niederreiter and Barabanov in my league. His 0.77 PTS/GP was the best of any rookie in 2022-23 (minimum 10 games), which in itself would make him a keeper in a lot of formats given his potential to grow. I won't try to discourage you from keeping him, but I have a few points to consider before you make your decision.

For starters, Maccelli's point total is assist-heavy. In 87 career games, he has a grand total of 12 goals. In a pure points league that might not be of concern, but it can matter when goals are worth more and are categorized separately from assists. Could he score more? Anyone could, but he's going to have to shoot a LOT more. Maccelli currently averages just under a shot per game, and he was even riding an 18.0 SH%. Maybe he's a careful shooter or a pass-first player, but the peripherals are light.

One bright spot: Maccelli scored 13 power-play points in spite of being on the ice for just 38.5% of his team's available power-play minutes. He could thrive in a first-unit power-play opportunity, but that might not matter yet as the Coyotes don't have a loaded PP1.  

Anton Lundell

After scoring 44 points in his rookie season, Lundell fell victim to the sophomore slump with just 33 points in 73 games in 2022-23. In other words, his production fell from 0.68 PTS/GP to 0.45 PTS/GP. This might not seem like a good sign for a young player, but Lundell could have had some better luck as well last season. A number of his analytics showed some slightly lower than expected numbers, including a 7.8 SH%, 7.7 5-on-5 SH%, 1.7 PTS/60, and 990 PDO.

Does Lundell have potential sleeper value in 2023-24? Possibly. It might help him to find his way onto the first-unit power play, though. He has a combined nine power-play points over two seasons on the second unit. Injuries could open the door for him, but a potential Matthew Tkachuk – Aleksander Barkov – Sam Reinhart – Carter Verhaeghe unit isn't going to be an easy one to crack. Maybe Lundell hits the fourth-year breakout next season, especially with Reinhart a UFA after this season. On the other hand, Reinhart has been a regular linemate that has been helping Lundell's even-strength production.

When compared to the previous three forwards, Lundell is the best keeper option. His age is an advantage, but there's also room for growth. He's a player that you can be willing to wait on for a few more seasons.

Nicklas Backstrom

Veterans on the downside of their career could make their way into bubble keeper status. The 35-year-old Backstrom certainly qualifies as that, finishing with 21 points in 39 games – a 44-point pace. Backstrom had missed the first half of the season due to hip replacement surgery, so any kind of return didn't seem like a sure thing. Never mind the fantasy relevance – it's just nice to see Backstrom be able to continue his career.

Regarding that career, he's been on a downward trajectory for the past two seasons, from 0.96 PTS/GP in 2020-21 to 0.66 PTS/GP in 2021-22 to 0.54 PTS/GP in 2022-23. Some analytics do favor Backstrom, though. His 946 PDO stands out as a number that could improve significantly, and the 5-on-5 SH% and 1.9 PTS/60 could also increase. A minor improvement could occur, particularly if Backstrom can reunite with Alex Ovechkin. However, Backstrom's recent track record has resulted in Band-Aid Boy status, so I'd be worried about more hip problems or another injury before projecting a major bounce-back for him.

Mark Stone

Speaking of injuries… I'd tread very cautiously here. The most telling description of Stone might be from Elliotte Friedman, who said that Stone "is likely to be in and out of the lineup for the remainder of his career." That smells like a perpetual game-time decision to me, or quite possibly a continuation of the past two seasons. That's not what you want on your roster, even if he is dependable when he is in the lineup.

Stone has played in roughly half of the Golden Knights' games over the past two seasons, averaging 34 points. He did not miss a game in the playoffs while averaging just over a point per game, so he is still effective when in the lineup (although it's worth mentioning that he was also shooting 22% over the playoffs). In single-season leagues, I'd leave Stone out of the top 100. If healthy for the entire season, he is certainly capable of being one of your better players. But that's the kind of risk you should let someone else take.  

Jakob Pelletier

In terms of players that benefit from Darryl Sutter's departure, Pelletier might be at the top of the list. Sutter's analysis of Pelletier's first few shifts was embarrassing and appeared to show that the veteran coach didn't care about the youngster's development. At least Pelletier was able to improve on his six minutes and change in his first shift, but in the end his first season didn't translate to much success (7 PTS in 24 GP).

Expect the former first-round pick to receive a better opportunity this season. Pelletier had scored at a point-per-game pace in the AHL for the past two seasons, suggesting that he is ready for the NHL. Looking at the Flames depth chart, Pelletier should slot in on the top 9 easily and could move up the lineup as well. Many of his analytics show potential growth, in particular a 6.3 SH% and 4.6 5-on-5 SH% and also a 1.2 PTS/60 and 955 PDO. He may not make a major impact this season at age 22, but he's a solid keeper if you have room.  

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