As the popular expression goes, fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.

All too often, fantasy general managers can be found to be the fools, trusting players to bounce back to heights that are normally too high to begin with. We have seen this with Mathew Barzal for the past five offseasons, thanks to a tremendous rookie campaign that he hasn’t been close to matching since. 

Not all players can rebound from a poor season. Many players struggle for extended periods, while some never bounce back. Frequently, we are hoping players are bouncing back to career years that are obviously outliers. 

It seems obvious in hindsight, but numerous players on bounce-back lists last year never had a chance. Popular rebound nominees included the aforementioned Barzal, Mike Hoffman, Alex Nedeljkovic, Jonathan Drouin and Ivan Provorov. Those names all appeared on my list last year (Top 10 Players Who Won't Bounce Back), and of the 10, Jamie Benn was the only one who rebounded. 

Below are 10 players who won’t bounce back this season. 

10. Cole Sillinger

Sillinger went from an okay rookie season to an awful sophomore campaign, where he finished with 11 points in 64 games and was sent to the AHL in March. Last year was awful for almost every single Blue Jacket, and normally I’d be a fan of Sillinger bouncing back. However, there has to be a big concern about the new coach, Mike Babcock. While he is a great coach, he has a history of a toxic work environment, and it will be interesting to see if a softer Babcock can get production out of his players. Aside from the new coach, there is also the fact that Sillinger won’t get a top-six role and seems to have already been usurped by Adam Fantilli. 

9. Jacob Markstrom

In the four seasons from 2017-18 to 2020-21, Markstrom’s wins ranged from 22 to 28, his shutouts from one to three, his goals against average from 2.68 to 2.77 and his save percentage from .904 to .918. He was probably the most consistent netminder in the league over that time. In 2021-22, he finished with 37 wins, nine shutouts, a 2.22 goals against average and a .922 save percentage. Last year, he dropped back to 23 wins, one shutout, 2.92 GAA and a .892 save percentage. Sure, his save percentage and goals against average dipped too much, but last year was a pretty normal year for Markstrom. Even with a new coaching change, you should expect another similar season for Markstrom. 

8. Morgan Rielly

Once every few seasons, Rielly puts up a great campaign to convince us he can be considered one of the best fantasy defensemen, and then he disappoints in the following season. In the last five years, we’ve seen a 68- and 72-point pace from Rielly. We’ve also seen 47-, 52- and 52-point paces. Two years ago, it was a 72-point pace; last year it dropped back to 52. Now the Leafs have signed John Klingberg (he was number five in my list of Top 10 Players That Will Bounce Back in 2023-24 last week), who might be on the top power-play unit. If that happens, Rielly will be hard-pressed to get anywhere near a 70-point pace again. 

7. Evander Kane

I’d be more optimistic about a Kane bounce-back season if we knew he was guaranteed to stay healthy and get back on the top power-play unit. We know he will be a beast in hits, shots and PIM, but he hasn’t been a great power-play producer for the past three years. Last season, he finished with just two man-advantage points, and he has a combined 13 power-play points in 140 games over the past three years (for comparison, he has nine shorthanded points in that same timeframe). Edmonton won’t be messing with their overpowering power play, so Kane will struggle to get back to a 70-point pace. 

6. Jack Campbell 

Normally, you would think that any netminder in Edmonton would be a contender as a top fantasy goalie. You’re guaranteed to win a significant number of games started, and even 60 starts would almost guarantee you 40 wins. However, there are a couple of things against Campbell. First, he isn’t guaranteed to get even half of the starts in Edmonton as Stuart Skinner was much better than Campbell last season. If Campbell struggles early this season, it won’t take long until Skinner takes the reins again. There’s also the reality that Campbell has only one season where he started more than half of the team’s games (and that was his last year in Toronto when he started hot and dropped off as the season went on). We’ve never seen him put together a full season of consistent, competent netminding. 

5. Patrick Kane

There’s no guarantee that Kane will be signed by the time training camp even ends. The 34-year-old was elite until last season, when his streak of four straight seasons of at least a 96-point pace was halted with a 64-point pace. That’s a significant drop-off, and even with Chicago tanking, you would have expected Kane to produce more. After undergoing hip surgery in June, there’s no telling how long it will take him to fully recover. Nicklas Backstrom went through a similar surgery last year and never got back to normal production, and that was going back to a team he was familiar with. If Kane signs with a new team, he needs to get used to a new city, a new coach, a new system, new linemates, etc. Kane has also said he doesn’t mind waiting until he is fully healed, which might be another two months.

4. Nazem Kadri

I’ve seen numerous predictions that expect a bounce-back season from Kadri, but what exactly are people hoping he bounces back to? There have only been three seasons in his career where he put up a minimum of a 60-point pace, and two of those were with Toronto. Sure, he had that massive 100-point pace season in his last year with Colorado, but that is an outlier. Last year, he finished with 56 points in 82 games, which equates to 0.68 points per game. His career average is 0.69. Expect another season below a 60-point pace. 

3. Matt Duchene

I’m honestly surprised anytime I’ve seen Duchene mentioned as a bounce-back candidate. Last year, he had a 65-point pace, which was down from his 90-point pace the previous season, but was still his third most productive season of the past nine years. That was in a situation where he averaged 18:19 per night and was on the top power-play unit. Now in Dallas, he’ll be a second/third-line tweener who gets the second power-play unit. Maybe in the best-case scenario, he stays on the second line for the whole year, but he’ll have to fend off Tyler Seguin, Logan Stankoven and Mason Marchment for that spot. With a salary of only $3 million, there’s no golden boy status to keep him in a top-six role. 

2. Victor Hedman

As a Hedman owner in my points-only keeper league, I am hoping I am wrong and Hedman rebounds. But as a Mikhail Sergachev owner in another league, I am hoping I am right and he doesn’t. Hedman lost his spot on the top power-play unit for a significant chunk of the regular season and throughout the postseason. Hedman has played significant minutes throughout his time in Tampa, and also played almost an entire extra regular season with 71 playoff games from 2020 to 2022. Expect the team to want to rest Hedman more this season so he can be healthier for the postseason.

1. Chis Kreider

Kreider is a player who may score 40 goals this year but will still struggle to reach 60 points. Kreider has always been a goal scorer, finishing with more goals than assists in five straight seasons and six of the last seven. Despite getting ample time on the power play, his 17 power-play points last year was the second highest of his career. This year will be more of the same. That 52-goal, 78-point season was an aberration, so don’t count on a bounce-back season.