Eastern Edge: Fantasy Hockey Goalie Tiers from Igor Shesterkin to Cal Petersen

Brennan Des

2023-09-19

In this week’s Eastern Edge, we’ll divide Eastern Conference goaltenders into tiers based on their fantasy hockey value. Keep in mind, there’s a fair bit of subjectivity that goes into these tiers, so think of them more as a guide for your own thinking than rigid rankings that you should stick to. For Western Conference goalie tiers, check out Grant's article over here.

By the way, our sister site GOALIE POST now has a free app that will tell you the starting goalies, offers goalie rankings, win projections per-game, and save-projections for the coming game. Pick it up in the app store for iOS here and for Android here.

Tier One

Andrei Vasilevskiy (TBL)

Vasilevskiy checks all the boxes of a top-tier fantasy netminder. He has the individual talent, plays behind an excellent team, and is at no risk of losing starts to his backup. Although his numbers have been slightly underwhelming in recent years, I'm willing to chalk that up to fatigue, as Tampa's long postseason runs left him with shorter offseasons to rest and prepare. A first round playoff exit last year finally gave Vasilevskiy a full summer to prepare for the upcoming campaign. Let's see if that influences his performance this season.

Igor Shesterkin (NYR)

Across a young career that currently spans four seasons, Shesterkin sports a .924 save percentage, 2.37 GAA and 62%-win rate. Those numbers place him near the top of the league in each of those categories since he entered the NHL. The Rangers boast a strong mix of elite veterans, and promising youngsters who seem primed to take a step forward this year. This group makes it possible for Shesterkin to register wins even when he's having an off night.

Ilya Sorokin (NYI)

Since he took on a full-time role during the 21-22 campaign, Sorokin has been the league's best goalie in terms of 'goals saved above average'. Arguably the most talented netminder in the game right now, he can mask the deficiencies of what seems to be a middle-of-the-pack team in New York.

Tier Two

Tristan Jarry (PIT)

Jarry's overall numbers last year were disappointing, but that's likely because he was hindered by injury. His first 27 appearances saw him post an impressive 16-5-5 record, with a .921 save percentage and 2.65 GAA. That was followed by a one-month stint on the injured reserve. He struggled when he came back, going 8-8-2, with an .890 SV% and 3.26 GAA. A full offseason to rest and recover, combined with a rejuvenated Penguins roster, sets the stage for Jarry to be a top fantasy netminder this year.

Vitek Vanecek (NJD)

With Vanecek signed for two more years at $3.4 million, the Devils have incentive to play him over Akira Schmid, who has just one year left at $850K. The discrepancy between contracts suggests Vanecek will be the starter in New Jersey this year. Seeing a high volume of action behind one of the league's best teams – which finished third overall last season – should let Vaneck have a significant impact on your fantasy roster.

Ilya Samsonov (TOR)

The 26-year-old netminder put together an excellent first season in Toronto, registering a 27-10-5 record, .919 save percentage and 2.33 GAA. With Matt Murray injured and Joseph Woll lacking NHL experience, Samsonov looks to be the clear-cut starter in Toronto. Playing behind a strong Leafs roster should result in a solid fantasy campaign.

Linus Ullmark (BOS)

Although Ullmark was the best goalie in the league last season, he'll be hard-pressed to repeat that feat following the retirements of Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci. I think wins will be harder to come by because the team in front of him isn't as good, but I still see him posting solid numbers thanks to a strong blueline headlined by Charlie McAvoy and Hampus Lindholm. Unlike the netminders above him on this list, Ullmark will actually face fierce competition for starts as Jeremy Swayman has the potential to demand more action.

Frederik Andersen (CAR)

Given his experience and the magnitude of his contract, it seems Andersen will be Carolina's starting netminder this year. He's in an ideal situation playing behind a team that finished second overall last season and sported the league's best defense based on expected goals against (via NaturalStatTrick). Andersen was hindered by injury last year, which led to an underwhelming .903 save percentage. Considering Carolina has three NHL-caliber goalies on the roster, if Andersen falls into injury trouble again, he might not see a high enough volume of action to be the top goalie on your fantasy team.

Tier Three

Jeremy Swayman (BOS)

Swayman had a strong showing last season, posting a 2.27 GAA and .920 save percentage. He ranks slightly below Ullmark, who is likely to see a few more starts based on last year's outstanding performance.

Darcy Kuemper (WSH)

As the undisputed starter in Washington, Kuemper should see enough action to have an impact on your fantasy roster. Last year, the Capitals finished 25th overall, with Kuemper posting a 2.85 GAA and .909 save percentage through 57 games. Although I'm still not a huge fan of the roster in front of him, I think things could be better this year, with a full season of John Carlson, Nicklas Backstrom, T.J. Oshie, and Tom Wilson. Add in a few underrated offseason acquisitions in Max Pacioretty and Joel Edmundson, and suddenly Kuemper's fantasy outlook doesn't look too bad.

Joonas Korpisalo (OTT)

As we discussed in last week's Eastern Edge, I like Korpisalo in fantasy leagues because I'm a believer in the team in front of him. I think the Senators' stock is about to pop, so I'm investing in their goalie. Having signed for five years at an AAV of $4 million, Korpisalo is being paid like the starter, so he'll probably be played like the starter. His career performance and injury history are valid causes for concern, but I'm choosing to be optimistic because he's coming off a strong season, having posted a .915 SV% through 39 games between Columbus and LA.

Elvis Merzlikins (CBJ)

Merzlikins has four NHL seasons under his belt. The first two were good. The last two were horrendous. I'm hopeful that a strengthened blueline, with the newly acquired Ivan Provorov and Damon Severson, as well as a healthy Zach Werenski, will help Merzlikins rediscover the promise he showed just two years ago.

Akira Schmid (NJD)

Although he saw limited action last year, Schmid was solid when called upon. He posted a .922 save percentage and 2.13 GAA through 18 regular season games, with a .921 SV% and 2.35 GAA over nine playoff appearances. He'll likely start the season in a backup role but could earn more opportunity considering Vanecek is far from an established starter.

Sergei Bobrovksy (FLA)

I have to rank Bob this high because he's the starting netminder of a strong team in Florida. Honestly though, looking at his tenure with the Panthers, I'm not sure if he deserves to be in this tier. Through four years with Florida, he holds an impressive 105-54-14 record, but an abysmal .905 save percentage and 2.97 GAA. If wins are important in your league, I can understand rostering Bobrovsky, but otherwise, I can't think of another goalie who consistently falls short of fantasy expectations. If you really want Bob on your fantasy team this year, I might recommend trading for him after the season starts. With Brandon Montour and Aaron Ekblad expected to miss at least the first month of the campaign, holes in Florida's defense will make Bob's life even more difficult early on. Perhaps if he struggles out of the gate, you can acquire him at a discounted rate in a trade, and hope things improve once Montour and Ekblad return.

Tier Four

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (BUF)

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I think Buffalo has a strong roster and that their starting netminder probably belongs in tier three. The problem is, I can't say with certainty who that'll be. Last year marked the first time that Luukkonen saw significant action, and his overall numbers weren't good. However, he put forth a strong stretch of play from early December to late January, winning 10 of his 14 starts and posting a .916 SV% in the process. At 24 years of age, he's further along in his development than 21-year-old Devon Levi, so it makes sense to give Luukkonen more action this season, allowing Levi to develop at a more comfortable pace. Don't forget that Luukkonen was also a highly touted netminder at one point. Goalies take longer to develop than skaters so it's not outlandish to suggest that UPL's best years are ahead of him. With all the hype surrounding Levi, you should be able to steal UPL in the late rounds of your fantasy draft, making him a low risk pick that could bear high reward if he snags the starting gig.

Devon Levi (BUF)

Levi certainly possesses the talent to be Buffalo's starter, but I don't think that's best for him and the team long term. Considering the Sabres were in the playoff race until late last season, expectations for the team will be high this year. Such a scenario emphasizes winning over development, which is not ideal for a 21-year-old netminder who only has seven NHL games under his belt. Goalies tend to take more time to develop. Since the key pieces of Buffalo's core are so young, it makes sense to be patient and let Levi learn and improve at a comfortable pace. WIth such an approach, he would achieve his lofty potential around the same time the rest of the team reaches its prime. I didn't want to put him in a higher tier because I don't think he'll get the same volume of action as other bonafide starters. At the same time, because there is a chance of him becoming the starter, on a solid Buffalo team, I also couldn't place him any lower.

Ville Husso (DET)

The 28-year-old netminder has two seasons with significant action under his belt: last year in Detroit, when he posted an underwhelming .896 SV% and 3.11 GAA through 56 games, and the season before in St. Louis, when he impressed with a .919 SV% and 2.56 GAA through 40 outings. Most seem willing to attribute last year's struggles to the lackluster Red Wings team in front of Husso. I'm willing to buy that theory, but how you value Husso this year depends on what you think of the altered roster in front of him. Sure, Alex DeBrincat is a massive addition that could help secure a few more wins, but I'm not sure if the acquisitions of Jeff Petry, Shayne Gostisbehere and Justin Holl make Husso's life easier or more difficult.

Samuel Montembeault (MTL)

His numbers last year weren't good, but Montembeault had stretches of strong play during a season where the Canadiens were decimated by injuries. Although a healthy roster probably isn't ready to contend for the playoffs just yet, I think the Habs have the potential to outperform expectations this season. Montembeault backstopped Team Canada to a gold medal at the 2023 IIHF World Championship in May, posting a 1.42 GAA and .939 save percentage over seven games. The 26-year-old has been developing his game and improving gradually; he could provide sneaky value in deeper leagues this year.

Carter Hart (PHI)

The Flyers aren't expected to win a lot of games this year, which hurts Hart's fantasy value. However, he'll see a lot of action as the team's undisputed number one. Although Philly's roster isn't the most talented, they have a few decent pieces and should be able to defend relatively well under coach John Tortorella. Hart hasn't realized his lofty potential yet, but we know the talent is there based on earlier stages of his career. He should provide sneaky value as most fantasy managers don't want to draft a goalie on a team destined to finish near the bottom of the league.

Anton Forsberg (OTT)

Given Korpisalo's lack of consistency, Forsberg has the potential to become the starter of a promising team in Ottawa. He was hindered by injuries and struggled last year, but the season before that, Forsberg was trusted with 46 games and posted a .917 SV% behind a Senators team that wasn't as good then as it is now.

Pyotr Kochetkov (CAR)

A talented goaltender on one of the league's top defensive teams, Kochetkov's fantasy value is currently limited because he's unlikely to see a high volume of action this year. Considering he's just 24 years old and only has 27 NHL games under his belt, it seems the Hurricanes want to ease him into a bigger role slowly, which is why they re-signed Andersen and Raanta during the offseason. Since his counterparts are older and somewhat injury prone, Kochetkov has the potential to skyrocket up this list.

Spencer Knight (FLA)

Knight recently revealed that he entered the NHL/NHLPA Player Assistance Program earlier in the year to get support for his Obsessive Compulsive Disorder (OCD). Feeling better equipped to manage his OCD now, it seems he's ready to return to the Panthers this season. At 22 years of age, he has plenty of time to reach the potential that came with being the 13th overall pick of the 2019 draft. Although he has a bright future ahead of him, I expect Florida will ease him into action this year, keeping him in a backup role. A lack of opportunity will prevent him from having a huge impact in fantasy formats unless Bobrovsky goes down with an injury.

Tier Five

Antti Raanta (CAR)

Joseph Woll (TOR)

Semyon Varlamov (NYI)

Jake Allen (MTL)

James Reimer (DET)

Tier Six

Eric Comrie (BUF)

Daniil Tarasov (CBJ)

Jonathan Quick (NYR)

Jonas Johansson (TBL)

Cal Petersen (PHI)

Alex Nedeljkovic (PIT)

Magnus Hellberrg (PIT)

Charlie Lindgren (WSH)

6 Comments

  1. HoweOduyaLaichDemkoKunitz 2023-09-20 at 01:17

    Where is Carter Hart ??

  2. I Heart Habs 2023-09-20 at 07:57

    Hart ?

  3. Brennan Des 2023-09-20 at 09:28

    Sorry everyone! Don’t know how I missed Carter Hart. I’d place him in tier four, right after Samuel Montembeault.

    The Flyers aren’t expected to win a lot of games this year, which hurts Hart’s fantasy value. However, he’ll see a lot of action as the team’s undisputed number one. Although Philly’s roster isn’t the most talented, they have a few decent pieces and should be able to defend relatively well under coach John Tortorella. Hart hasn’t realized his lofty potential yet, but we know the talent is there based on earlier stages of his career. He should provide sneaky value as most fantasy managers don’t want to draft a goalie on a team destined to finish near the bottom of the league.

  4. whiteyriley7 2023-09-20 at 11:09

    Minnesota? Gustavsson?

  5. KickAxe2000 2023-09-21 at 12:27

    Oettinger?? Saros??

    • KickAxe2000 2023-09-21 at 12:29

      Sorry, just noticed this is Eastern only.

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