A few weeks ago I promised breakout candidates from each NHL team as part of a write-in question that I didn't get to. Well, after a few distractions, I'm bringing the 32 breakout candidates this week.

I have the players loosely sorted by how deep of a league you will have to be in to consider these players. The first players on the list will be relevant in most every league, while the later players listed will be the deeper cuts.  

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Senators – Brady Tkachuk (LW): I'm prefacing this by the fact that there aren't a lot of other Senators primed for a jump in production. Tkachuk has seem his hit rate drop from crazy-high, to just really-good, and that's a good thing, because it means his team has the puck more and he is scoring more. This team is continuing to improve, and it's going to be easy for Brady to pass his 83 points from last season. This past year, he averaged less than 19 minutes a night, shot only 10%, while his teammates converted at under nine percent with him on the ice. The rest of his underlying numbers all show room for growth, and the team is getting Josh Norris back healthy as well. The younger Tkachuk may not quite keep up with older-brother Matthew, but I'm definitely taking the over on 90 points for Brady this year.

Flyers – Owen Tippett (RW): Tippett is exactly what we look for in a breakout candidate: He's at his 200-game breakout threshold, had a huge scoring bump to finish last season, still has room to grow with ice time, reasonable underlying numbers, and no superstars pushing him too far down the roster. The health of Sean Couturier would add a lot to Tippett's case for a big breakout this year. Him keeping up his Q4 pace of 16 points in 20 games (a 65-point full-season pace) is not out of the question.

Blue Jackets – Elvis Merzlikins (G): Rebounds for Johnny Gaudreau and others with a return to health from Zach Werenski and Patrik Laine all point to the Blue Jackets finishing the year ahead of where they did last year. Add in Adam Fantilli, Alex Texier, and some reinforcements on defence, and all there really is to wonder about is how their goalies do. Merzlikins has had a tough few years both on the ice and off, but hopefully now he is a little more settled, and given some more help in his own end. With how last season went there aren't a lot of numbers to base this off of though, and it's more of a "he can't be any worse and is going to start a lot" situation. Volume-wise, if he sees 55-60 starts, then 25 wins and 30+ saves per game, in line with his 2021-22 season would be the floor.

Lightning – Nick Paul (C/LW): After starting off the year extremely well with 16 points in 21 games, Paul really cooled off once he was moved out of the top-six. With a few departures this summer though, there is an open spot on left wing on the second line, and Paul makes the most sense to jump into that position. He may not pace for the over-60-points he was doing in Q1 last year, but a 55-point season mainly relying on even-strength production could certainly be in the cards. He brings some solid peripherals too.

Avalanche – Ross Colton (C/LW): On a related note, the Avalanche acquired Colton from the Lightning, and while Colton's situation stuck in the middle-six on a top-heavy roster may not have changed, the expectation that he can be a bit more of a scorer may have. Approaching his breakout threshold, in line for more ice time, possibly more offensive zone starts, and playing with some more skilled scoring wingers will all push Colton's scoring numbers in the right direction. His previous career high of 39 points is going to be beaten if he stays healthy.

Kraken – Eeli Tolvanen (RW): I ended up coving Tolvanen last week as my Seattle pick, and I don't have much more to say now than I did then.

"He’s a scorer that is approaching his breakout threshold, and there was all of Daniel Sprong‘s sheltered offensive zone and power play time that just got freed up on the right wing. For an over/under set at pacing for 57.5 points for the 24-year-old, I think I would be taking the over."

Panthers – Evan Rodrigues (RW): Rodrigues is being brought in to fill Anthony Duclair's role of playing the right side on one of the top-two lines, while likely slotting in on the second power play. Duclair could have put up over a 60-point pace in that role last year, but was in tough jumping right in after rehabbing an Achilles tear. Rodrigues can hit the ground running and make good on the potential that the role brings.

Canadiens – Alex Newhook (C/RW): With 40 games to go before he hits the 200-game mark Newhook isn't someone to be selling low on by Christmas if he gets off to a slow start in the bleu, blanc, et rouge. This summer's trade to bring Newhook in felt eerily similar to last season's acquisition of Kirby Dach, which paid off handsomely for the Canadiens. A 45- to 50-point season would be a good stepping stone, but if he sticks on the top line with Cole Caufield (more on his potential here) and Nick Suzuki, it could be a banner year.

Blues – Jakub Vrana (RW): Vrana has had some of the best underlying numbers in the NHL over the last few years, his issues have just come down to his mental battles off the ice, and his lack of ice time when he is in the game. Both of those should be settled for him in St. Louis now that he has sought help, and found a team that both wants him and has the opportunity for him to play regularly in the top-six. He may be the third-best winger behind Pavel Buchnevich and Jordan Kyrou, but his scoring won't fall too far behind them.

It remains inane that no one wants this guy. Among guys who have been in the NHL the last 5 years, here's the list of guys with more 5v5 primary points per hour than Jakub Vrana:

Auston Matthews
Connor McDavid
Mitch Marner
David Pastrnak

He's tied with Nathan Mackinnon for 5th. https://t.co/yTBKshep78 pic.twitter.com/88GjX9J1j3

— CJ Turtoro (@CJTDevil) March 16, 2023

Kings – Quinton Byfield (C/LW): Byfield was putting up a point every other game in the second half of last season, and performed well in the playoffs, all on the top line for the Kings. He could easily surpass 50-points this season, with room for a lot more growth in the future, though 60+ will be tough immediately without time on the top power play unit.

Jets – Cole Perfetti (C/LW): No this will not be the year we see Nikolaj Ehlers ascend to point-per-game status. However, Perfetti will stay healthy, and fly past last season's pace of just-under 50 points. Everything is pointing up for Perfetti this year, except maybe his plus-minus if the team falls off a little as most expect them to.

Sharks – Anthony Duclair (RW): I'm cheating here because the Sharks are terrible, and instead of picking a breakout I'm going with a rebound player in Anthony Duclair who jumps back into the 55- to 60-point range now that he's fully healthy and had a full offseason to get back in shape and up to speed. He'll get all the minutes he can handle too, but like Perfetti, watch out for that tumbling plus-minus.

Capitals – Rasmus Sandin (D): With John Carlson slowing down, and Dmity Orlov out of the way, Rasmus Sandin looks primed to take advantage of the fact that there are a lot of skilled forwards on the Capitals to give the puck to. The difference in Washington as opposed to his time with Toronto, is the ice time he sees in Washington. Sandin saw a five-minute bump per game with the move to Washington, scoring 15 points in 19 games.

Devils – Akira Schmid (G): After your entire team breaks out, and a few veterans are added in the offseason, there aren't really a lot of "breakout" options outside of rookies Luke Hughes and Simon Nemec. However, Schmid is no longer a rookie goalie, and is looking to prove that his small sample size last season is not just a flash in the pan. It should be easy to do behind a deep and potent Devils lineup, it will all just come down to playing time, as he will have to contend with the incumbent Vitek Vanecek who also has the big contract in hand.

Ducks – Jamie Drysdale (D): After missing most of last season recovering from surgery, Drysdale is primed to come back healthy and take over the offensive minutes for a team with a lot of up-and-coming offensive talent. More of a long-term play, but certainly worth the investment now, and the possible high upside we could see as early as this season. His floor should be the 32-point pace with 12 power play points that he put up in 2021-22.

Hurricanes – Seth Jarvis (RW): Martin Necas broke out in a big way for Carolina last year, and this year it's Jarvis' turn to start putting it all together. He put up 40 points (in 68 games) in his rookie year, before slowing his pace to 39 in 82 last season. This year it rebounds into the 50s, buoyed by the Hurricanes offence taking a step forward thanks mostly to the additions on defence this summer.

Rangers – Kaapo Kakko (RW): I'm going with Kakko here over Lafreniere to have the breakout season solely because I think he gets the first shot up the lineup in the top-six because of handedness. Lafreniere has Artemi Panarin and Chris Kreider in front of him, Kakko just has a 37-year-old Blake Wheeler. Kakko is just past his breakout threshold, after pacing for 40 points last season. Hitting the 50-point benchmark should be the expectation this year, not the high-water possibility.

Predators – Juuso Parssinnen (C): Of all the young players in Nashville, Parssinnen seems to be getting the least amount of fanfare. With the Nashville lineup more spread out, but a little deeper in scoring talent this year, and Ryan O'Reilly brought in to anchor the defensive side of things, that should leave more space open for players like Parssinen to shine. Admittedly he might not finish as high on the scoring ladder as Tommy Novak or Luke Evangelista, but still worth highlighting.

Stars – Wyatt Johnston (C/RW): Johnston put up 41 points in 82 games and did not look out of place in his rookie season. Over the course of the season, he saw his ice time grow, and his scoring rate followed, finishing Q4 with 12 points in 19 games, a 52-point pace. What will hold Johnston back from really breaking out is the lack of top-unit power play time, but he could still flirt with the 55- to 60-point range regardless. In another year or two when Joe Pavelski is gone, that's when Johnston is really going to jump up to being a top-line producer with the full 20+ power play points to match.

Flames – Matthew Coronato (RW): Coronato put four shots on net in his only game last season, but he should play a full 82 this year. There is room for him to steal a top-six spot on the right-wing in camp, and since he's a shooter, he might be a better fit alongside Jonathan Huberdeau who is primed for a rebound back to the 80- to 90-point range.

Red Wings – Jonatan Berggren (RW): Berggren played only five percent of his time last year with Lucas Raymond, but put up 15% of his total production in that time. Otherwise, his linemates were almost solely bottom-six players: Joe Veleno, Austin Czarnik, Matt Luff, Pius Suter… etc. If he can move up in the lineup, his scoring rate is going to skyrocket.

Golden Knights – Pavel Dorofeyev (LW/RW): The uncertainty here is Mark Stone's health, and therefore his presence above Dorofeyev in the lineup. If Stone is more out of the lineup than in, we may end up seeing the young Russian with a spot in the top-six for the majority of the season. On a team like the Golden Knights that can run a multitude of scoring lines, Dorofeyev could certainly maintain, or even improve on his 41-point-pace from last season (nine points in 18 games). He was doing that and putting 2.2 shots per game on net while only playing 14 minutes per game. With more ice time, he's a big breakout candidate.

Canucks – Anthony Beauvillier (LW): Beauvillier got off to a hot start lining up alongside Elias Pettersson and Andrei Kuzmenko after a trade from New York. The 26-year-old is a pending unrestricted free agent, and should have both the motivation and opportunity to pass his career high pace of 47-points.

Islanders – Pierre Engvall (LW): With the departures of Zach Parise and the aforementioned Beauvillier, Engvall only has Anders Lee as competition for a top-line spot. With Bo Horvat and Mat Barzal making up the first two spots on the top line, Engvall's speed could compliment them better than Lee's big-body and finishing presence. At worst, Engvall should find himself on the second line alongside Brock Nelson and Kyle Palmieri.

Bruins – Trent Frederic (C/LW): Pavel Zacha is the sexy Bruins breakout pick, but really he's already there. He played at a 65-point-pace in the second half last year – maybe he gets up to 70 this year, but not a ton higher. For Frederic, his career high is 31 points, he's sitting right at his breakout threshold, and he may be up to the second-line LW slot with some secondary power play time this year. Jumping to 45+ points is just going to depend on the size of the bump in ice time that he sees.

Coyotes – Jack McBain (C): I haven't been the biggest proponent of McBain's, but he is growing very well into a capable third-line centre who stuffs all of the right peripheral categories needed in bangers leagues. If he can get his shot rate up a touch more – which should happen with some more ice time and better teammates – then he's going to be a must-own as a roster filler to make up for players like Johnny Gaudreau or Troy Terry who give you all of the scoring but none of the grit.

Wild – Brock Faber (D): I'm still not convinced Marco Rossi sticks and thrives this year, so we're going with Faber here who will see top-four minutes and thrive. He may not be as fantasy-relevant as he doesn't rack up large point totals, but he is going to be a great addition for the Wild team overall, and his large minutes will lend themselves to some reasonable peripheral quantities as well.

Maple Leafs – Nick Robertson (LW): As a bit of a post-hype sleeper now thanks to a few injury-filled camapigns, Robertson comes into camp healthy, and with a place on the third line that could be a very realistic spot for him to win in camp. Having some scoring depth in the bottom-six would be a boon for the Leafs, and all this will take is the absence of another freak injury.

Sabres – Jordan Greenway (LW): After most of the team broke out last year, there aren't a lot of candidates, especially if Devon Levi starts the year in the minors. Greenway may have a chance to stick in the top-six the season after Jack Quinn's injury. His big frame fits with what Buffalo has built alongside Alex Tuch, Tage Thompson, and Dylan Cozens. Greenway should now be adjusted to the Sabres after a big step back with the move from Minnesota. Getting back up to the 40-point range should be easy, but there may be room from more.

Penguins – Alex Nylander (LW): The Jake Guentzel injury opens up the exact opportunity that Nylander will need to be slotted in as a top-six winger to start the year. Playing alongside either Sidney Crosby or Evgeni Malkin (as he did for a bit of last season) should be a recipe for finally making an impact in the NHL as a scorer.

Oilers – Vincent Desharnais (D): A depth defenceman here on a team that has the best schedule for head-to-head playoffs, Desharnais can be a difference maker in leagues with bangers categories. With a couple more minutes per game, you could easily see 1.5 Hits and Blocks per game.

Blackhawks – Pass: It's really tough to pick out a breakout candidate here. Taylor Raddysh should continue his ascension, but otherwise the majority of the Blackhawks are going to be as useless as last year. One wildcard I did want to highlight was Ryan Donato, who has been a 30-point third-liner his whole career, but with some more ice time and a bigger contract this year, the opportunity might be there to at least increase his point totals, especially if he gets some power play exposure.

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See you next Wednesday! You can find me on Twitter (I will continue to call it that) @alexdmaclean if you have any fantasy hockey questions or comments.