Ramblings: Hartman Signs; Norris, Bennett Injured; First Week Schedule; Top Frozen Tools Searches (Oct 8)
Ian Gooding
2023-10-08
The Minnesota Wild have signed Ryan Hartman to a three-year extension with a $4 million AAV. After scoring an outlier 34 goals and 65 points in 2021-22, Hartman fell to just 15 goals and 37 points in 59 games last season. Over a full season, he still would have reached 50 points, so there's still some fantasy value there despite the down season. Hartman also shows value in bangers leagues, having recorded at least 90 penalty minutes in each of the last two seasons. He has also had three seasons of at least 100 hits, although the last occurrence of 100 hits was in 2018-19.
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Josh Norris has seemed like a great value pick in fantasy drafts up until now, but it's looking more and more like he will not be ready to start the season. He didn't play in Saturday's preseason game against Montreal. Norris missed most of last season with a shoulder injury that required surgery, but it sounds like it either hasn't fully healed or he suffered some kind of setback. DJ Smith has stated he doesn't know when Norris will be ready, so this sounds like an ominous situation.
In a season where they are a popular pick to land a playoff spot for the first time in several years, the Senators are in a real pickle up the middle, as they still have not signed RFA Shane Pinto. I haven't been following the Sens closely in terms of preseason line combinations, but I'm thinking this could force Tim Stutzle to move to center and Dominik Kubalik into the top 6.
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Sam Bennett, reportedly using a walking boot, is doubtful for the Panthers' opener on Thursday. The injuries continue to pile up for the Panthers, who are already expected to start the season without Brandon Montour or Aaron Ekblad. In a tight Atlantic Division and Eastern Conference, they could very well be a team that misses the playoffs. I don't blame them for being in the situation they're in, though. If you have an opportunity to win a Stanley Cup, then you should go all out for it. There are no guarantees you'll ever be that close again with your current core. Just ask the Canadian-based teams – the Stanley Cup might be the hardest trophy to win in all of professional team sports.
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Grigori Denisenko, who I wrote about yesterday as possibly needing a fresh start, was claimed off waivers by the Vegas Golden Knights. It might be easy to think that Bennett's injury could create a spot for Denisenko, but Denisenko was most likely on the outs in Florida anyway. Although Vegas has plenty of forward depth as the defending Stanley Cup champions, they strike me as the ideal organization to pull something out of Denisenko. Remember the Golden Misfits of their first season? To add to that, Denisenko plays the same position as Mark Stone, who could be in and out of the lineup with his back issues.
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Colin White was able to turn a PTO into a contract with the Penguins, signing a one-year, two-way contract. A first-round pick of Ottawa back in 2015, White shouldn't be on your fantasy radar anymore.
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It's never too early to start thinking about your matchups for next week. It's a bit of a shortened week, with no games on Monday and three games on Tuesday, the first night of the season.
Teams with 3 games: Carolina, Chicago, Nashville, Ottawa, Pittsburgh, Seattle, Tampa Bay, Vegas
Teams with 1 game: Arizona, Dallas, NY Islanders, Washington
All other teams play 2 games.
If you need a quick overview of the schedule for all teams next week, including teams on light days, this page on the Frozen Tools Schedule Planner should help.
Here's at least one player from each of the three-game teams that could be possible streaming options for you. All are sub-20% rostered in Yahoo.
Carolina: Teuvo Teravainen and Jaccob Slavin
Chicago: Lukas Reichel
Nashville: Ryan O'Reilly and Tommy Novak – more on Novak below
Ottawa: Dominik Kubalik
Pittsburgh: Pierre-Olivier Joseph (remember, Ty Smith has been sent to the AHL)
Seattle: Oliver Bjorkstrand and Eeli Tolvanen – more on Tolvanen below
Tampa Bay: Anthony Cirelli
Vegas: William Karlsson
Looking Ahead will be back next week with a more detailed analysis of the coming schedule and players of note.
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A few players have been on the top Frozen Tools searches for a while now. Below I will investigate the reasons that they are currently players of interest. I wrote about Owen Tippett recently, which you can fine here. Here are the others in the top 5 searches from the past week.
When the Erik Karlsson trade went down (and I was writing the Fantasy Take in the middle of a vacation), I was at a loss as to which defenseman could take over Karlsson's role on the Sharks power play. The cupboard is pretty bare in San Jose, as this is a team that could finish with the league's worst record. That's why Thurm is such an intriguing prospect, although he is not yet a lock to make the Sharks roster. On merit, he would make sense, but he is also waivers exempt while other young defensemen with less offensive upside (Ty Emberson, Nikita Okhotiuk) are not. Radim Simek's injury could open the door, though.
A little background on Thrun: He has scored at a near point-per-game level over two seasons at Harvard (63 PTS in 68 GP). That offensive production is something he has worked on since being drafted in the fourth round by San Jose in 2019. He is only 22 years old, so a team with more NHL-level depth would probably let him work on his game in the AHL for a season or two. If Thrun is in fact on the Sharks roster all season, something along the lines of Calen Addison's production in 2022-23 (29 PTS in 62 GP) might be close to a best-case scenario. The Sharks probably won't hesitate to send him to the AHL if he struggles with the defensive side of things.
Last time I checked in on Novak, the Predators lineup wasn't a finished product. They had just traded Ryan Johansen and waived Matt Duchene prior to free agency. Since then, they have more or less shuffled the deck chairs, bringing in a veteran center that is somewhat comparable offensively to Johansen and Duchene in Ryan O'Reilly. That shouldn't impact Novak's situation a ton, as O'Reilly should not be considered a top-line center by any team that has playoff aspirations. O'Reilly has consistently started below 50% of offensive-zone starts, and that may not change much as the Preds try to utilize the two-way aspect of his game.
Novak, meanwhile, had an offensive zone start rate of 63.7%. He managed to ride a hot shooting percentage to 35 points over his last 38 games, so an expectation of a point per game seems a bit high. He should be used in enough offensive situations such as the power play to earn his place on many fantasy teams, though.
Hayton was considered a reach when the Coyotes drafted him fifth overall in 2018, having being drafted ahead of Quinn Hughes and Evan Bouchard. It's taken him a little time to become a full-time NHLer and a productive one at that. Compare his first half (14 PTS in 43 GP) to his second half (29 PTS in 39 GP) last season, in particular his final quarter (18 PTS in 19 GP). He was definitely a waiver-wire option during the fantasy playoffs last season.
Going forward, the Coyotes figure to have a strong 1-2 punch up the middle with Logan Cooley and Hayton. Cooley likely profiles as more of a potential first-line center, so expect Hayton to settle in as a safe fantasy option with a modest ceiling. Based on his late-season productions, it's very possible that he improves on his 43 points in 82 games total. In addition, Cooley may need time to adjust to the NHL game, which could place Hayton in a first-line role on a line with Clayton Keller and Nick Schmaltz in the coming season.
Something I've noticed in the limited time I've spent watching preseason: Tolvanen has been very productive. Over four preseason games, Tolvanen has scored three goals and added two assists. That's obviously a small sample size and not representative of full rosters, but I thought I'd put that out there in case you do put some stock into preseason stats.
The Kraken took a chance on one-time top prospect Tolvanen last season, picking him up off waivers after he needed to move on from Nashville. Upon arriving in Seattle, Tolvanen scored 16 goals in 48 games, which would have worked out to a near 30-goal pace over a full season. He may be limited in terms of icetime and power-play time because of Dave Hakstol's even distribution of both, but expect him to push his way into top-6 minutes and first-unit power-play time as long as he continues to be productive.
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The writers have submitted their 2023-24 season predictions! Find out who they like for NHL player awards, players to rebound and disappoint, division winners, and Stanley Cup winner and finalist.
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Adam Fantilli was on the receiving end of the first highlight, then on the delivering end of the second highlight. So far during the preseason he has adapted well to the NHL, scoring two goals and adding two assists in four games.
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Since this officially my last Ramblings of the offseason, I wish you the best of luck in your fantasy season! It’s going to be fun getting to write about real games again.
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Love your columns Mr. G, but your comment about forceing to move Stutzle to centre? He was in that position all of last year and is again this year!
As I said above, I haven’t been paying close attention to Sens forward lines as perhaps some of the team’s fans. The Frozen Tools depth chart shows Stutzle as a RW https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/frozenpool_depthchart.php?team=OTT (although his player profile shows as C, which is wasn’t what I was looking at).
In the second paragraph you say that you wonder if it forces Stutzle to play center, I’m assuming you meant to say Giroux.
No, I meant Stutzle because I was looking at the Frozen Tools Depth Chart https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/frozenpool_depthchart.php?team=OTT (although his player profile shows as C, which is wasn’t what I was looking at). But I also said that I wasn’t paying close attention to what they were actually doing in training camp.