The NHL regular season starts today and thank you to everyone who has been reading through the offseason/training camp. Some days can turn into slogs but we've had a lot of positive feedback from both the Ramblings portions and the specific columns that are written daily/weekly, and that makes this writer/editor happy. We are here to help, so hopefully we can all crush our fantasy leagues and ride off into a glorious sunset come April.

There is a lot of news to discuss so let's get to that first.

*

Rasmus Dahlin signed a massive extension with Buffalo:

EIGHT. MORE. YEARS. 😤

We have signed defenseman Rasmus Dahlin to an eight-year contract extension with an AAV of $11 million.

Details: https://t.co/Ee5POD17vn pic.twitter.com/aIlymxrFmt

— Buffalo Sabres (@BuffaloSabres) October 9, 2023

That extension kicks in in 2024-25 and at the Board of Governors' meeting, it was suggested that the salary cap may rise around $4- to $5-million next year. That these two events occurred within days of each other is not a coincidence. It will give Dahlin one of the highest cap hits among all defencemen, though with the cap rising, his cap percentage will become very reasonable in a couple years. It certainly puts cap league players in a bit of a bind, though.

Buffalo also said that prospect Matthew Savoie will start the year on the injured reserve, but not much more detail was provided than that. Zach Benson was moved to the third line in practice with Alex Tuch resuming his top-line duties.

*

Staying with extensions, the Winnipeg Jets signed dual seven-year extensions for Mark Scheifele and Connor Hellebuyck, both coming in at $8.5M AAV. Those extensions will kick in next year when the cap rises.

There had been a lot made over the last couple of years of their pending UFA status and now both look set to retire as Jets players. Both are on the wrong side of 30 years old but if the cap pushes $100M in 3-4 years, it'll make these cap hits look much more palatable for guys in their mid-30s.

*

Toronto said goalie Matt Murray underwent hip surgery and will be out 6-8 months. That is likely the entire regular season, at a minimum, so his season may be over already.

*

St. Louis looks to be keeping the line of Pavel Buchnevich–Robert Thomas–Jordan Kyrou together for now, and I hope it lasts all year. Yes, I'm a selfish fantasy manager.

*

Montreal sent Mattias Norlinder to the AHL, though it feels like he may not stay there long.

*

William Karlsson was on the third line for Vegas at practice on Monday so it seems he'll be fine after missing some time in the preseason.

*

New Jersey is sending top defence prospect Simon Nemec to the AHL. It may not be back long until he's on the NHL roster, though, as the team did seem impressed with his effort in training camp.

Calgary claimed forward AJ Greer off waivers from Boston. Given Calgary's issues with the cap and having forward depth because of it, Greer may have value in deeper banger formats; he's managed 121 hits in his last 70 games while skating under nine minutes a night.

Ottawa, meanwhile, reclaimed defenceman Lassi Thompson while Colorado grabbed goalie Ivan Prosvetov. If I'm not mistaken, those were the only three players plucked off waivers from Sunday night-Monday morning.

*

If there was concern about Mattias Ekholm, he was a full participant in practice on Monday for Edmonton.

*

Allow me to riff on Tom Collins's territory a bit here and offer up my own top-10 list here today. (Speaking of whom, be sure to read Tom's Top-10 articles. He has written a lot of goodness recently predicting first-time 70-point forwards, first-time 50-goal scorers, and so on.) With the NHL starting tonight, it's time to let those reasonable takes fly, and that's what we're doing today. Here are 10 reasonable fantasy hockey takes for the 2023-24 season.

For posterity, last year's hot takes largely did not go well:

looking at a bold predictions list i made before the season, and it did not go well:
– Troy Terry 50+ goals (lol)
– NJD wins Metro (close!)
– Igor for Hart (X)
– Eichel 100 pts (X)
– SEA playoffs (yay!)
– Larkin 40 G/50 A (X)
– Toffoli 80 pts (X)
– Fox 90 pts (X)

— Michael Clifford (@SlimCliffy) April 14, 2023

Let's get to this year's hot takes. Data from Frozen tools or Natural Stat Trick, unless otherwise indicated.

Arizona is This Year's Buffalo

In fantasy hockey, we want to be a year early rather than a year late. Fantasy drafters who took a chance on Buffalo's offence being for real – or, rather, Tage Thompson being for real – were rewarded in 2022-23. On the flipside, those who thought Calgary's offensive explosion from 2021-22 would carry over without Matthew Tkachuk were punished. Such is fantasy hockey. So, if we're looking for a team to break out offensively like Buffalo did, where do we look? To the desert, of course.

The important part of Arizona's season a year ago was the scoring depth development past Clayton Keller and Nick Schmaltz. It is guys like Barrett Hayton, Mattias Maccelli, and Lawson Crouse that help the team's middle-6 offence. Add rookie dynamo Logan Cooley to that mix, and both Sean Durzi and Jason Zucker, and this is a franchise rounding into form. After the All-Star break last season, Arizona finished the year 18^th in scoring at even strength. If the power play can ever come around, this team could make a big leap in 2023-24.

Mathew Barzal Hits 90 Points

No offence to Anders Lee, but Bo Horvat is probably the most talented goal scorer that Barzal has had since John Tavares left. Instead of focusing on Barzal/Horvat not tearing down the house in the six regular season games they played together, the focus should be on Barzal skating over 21 minutes a night in those six games with Horvat next to him. Comparatively, Barzal was at 18:46 per game before Horvat arrived. If Barzal skates 20-21 minutes with Horvat beside him, this all-world playmaker could have a career year. 

Brock Boeser Scores 40 Goals

Speaking of Horvat, his departure from Vancouver should assure Boeser stays on the top PP unit all year long regardless of Andrei Kuzmenko's performance. Over his final 20 games of 2022-23, Boeser was earning over 18 minutes a night, a marked improvement over the sub-17 minutes he was getting earlier in the season. He probably needs to shoot more, and just be more dangerous at even strength overall, but Boeser has the opportunity for a career season. It is up to him to make the most of it.

Kris Letang Is More Valuable in Multi-Cat Formats Than Erik Karlsson

Karlsson coming off the season he has means he's going to be drafted far, far ahead of Letang in all formats (and he has been). At the same time, over the last two seasons, Letang has averaged 6.61 shots+hits+blocks per game, while Karlsson sits at 3.88. Just how many more points Karlsson would need to be more valuable in multi-cat formats depends on a lot of things, but it's a lot. I still have Karlsson ahead because, once Jake Guentzel returns, he should be locked on the top PP unit while Letang is not. The gap is smaller than some fantasy managers may realize, though, and there are a lot of reasons why Letang could be more valuable (poor PIT PP, Karlsson injury, Letang staying PP1 etc.)

Tommy Novak Reaches 70 Points

It was only 51 games for Novak in 2022-23, but there was so much good to talk about. It is easy to look at his 18.3% shooting, thinking it'll regress, and he'll have a downturn because of it. This is very possible, but it also disguises what Novak showed us last year. Tracking from AllThreeZones shows him in very good company by controlled zone entries per minute and the percentage of those entries that he carried in himself:

On top of that, these are the names that had comparable rates of scoring chances created off that player's controlled zone entries:

Perhaps there was a reason Novak's even strength assists per 60 minutes (1.84) was 29% higher than the next-closest Nashville forward (Matt Duchene, 1.43), and in the 96^th percentile of forwards in the league (minimum of 600 minutes played). He should anchor the second line and be a fixture of Nashville's top power play. A lot more minutes will help whatever goal-scoring regression is coming and if he can repeat his 2022-23 performance, there is a surprising year in store.

Ottawa Has Three 40-Goal Scorers

It is pretty unlikely because there are only so many shots and goals to go around on any given team, but the Sens had Tim Stützle get to 39 goals last year while Brady Tkachuk had 35. Drake Batherson managed just 22 tallies, but he also shot 8.8% against a career 14.8% over his first 145 games. Had he shot that in 2022-23, he would have reached 37 goals. There is a lot that has to go right for any team to have three 40-goal scorers, and the goal scorers staying healthy is at the top of the list. However, between those three guys, a (hopefully) returning Josh Norris, and the addition of Vladimir Tarasenko, Ottawa is one of the few teams that could boast three players with 40 goals.

Jordan Kyrou Cracks 50 Goals

The big problem here is ice time. Since the 2004 lockout, no player has reached 50 goals while skating under 18:30 per game. The closest was Teemu Selanne in 2006-07 with 48 goals, while Steven Stamkos had 45 in 2018-19. Kyrou skated an even 18 minutes a game last year. If that doesn't improve to at least 19 minutes, and preferably 20, he has almost no chance of reaching 50 goals.

However, if the coaching staff realizes they're better off giving Kyrou 20 minutes a night because their depth forwards are not what they were 2-3 years ago, there is more upside to come. A heavily-used top PP unit is a part of this so, again, a lot has to go right, but he has the linemates and the skill to do it. He just needs the opportunity, and that's up to the coaches.

Alexis Lafrenière is a Top-100 Multi-Cat Forward

This won't be long because it feels like I've talked about Lafrenière more than any other player this offseason. I really do think the coaching change will be good for him and if he can stick on the Mika Zibanejad–Chris Kreider line, he could have the best offensive season of his career. That he won't get PP time is why his fantasy upside is capped, but he's averaged 128 hits/82 games over the last two years. Add that to a career offensive season and he could have a very good multi-cat year. The preseason has given us plenty of reasons to be concerned about his fantasy value, so let's hope he rights the ship quickly.

Quinton Byfield Reaches 55 Points and 100 Hits

Last season, Byfield had 22 points in 53 games, which isn't good production, even at 14 minutes a night. That masks how good he was because he had a slow start to the year that saw him go back to the AHL, and finished the season with 1 point in his final 11 games as he slowed down (something that carried into the playoffs). This would be concerning except that he's a guy that was drafted during the height of COVID and has endured injuries that have hampered his development. This past offseason was his first normal offseason in several years. With the chemistry developed alongside Anze Kopitar and Adrian Kempe, a full offseason of training, and some positive regression with his shooting percentage, Byfield is one of the young players to watch for a huge increase on their prior season.

Sebastian Aho is a 100-Point Player

As with Kyrou, the entire problem here is ice time. It has been four straight seasons with 19:30-or-less per game for Aho, last reaching 20 minutes in 2018-19. It isn't impossible to reach 100 points while skating under 20 minutes a game, as all of Kirill Kaprizov, Jonathan Huberdeau, and Jason Robertson have all done it in either of the last two seasons on three different teams. The difference is those guys averaged 36-37 PPPs in those seasons; Aho had 15 last year in 75 games played. He will not reach 100 points if he can't even get to 20 PPPs, let alone 35 or 40.

Tony DeAngelo coming back to the lineup is what could change things. Aho has been on the ice for over 1.5 more goals/60 minutes at 5-on-4 over the last three years with DeAngelo on the blueline than anyone else. With DeAngelo in the fold and Seth Jarvis (hopefully) taking flight on his right wing, this could be Aho's top production season of his career.