Welcome back to Forum Buzz, where I peruse the DobberHockey Forums and weigh in on active, heavily debated, or otherwise relevant recent threads, reminding folks just how great a resource the Forums are. Nearly anything might be covered here, other than trades and signings, which usually get their own separate write-ups on the main site and are also normally covered in the next day’s Ramblings, or questions that are specific to salary cap issues, which is the domain of the weekly Capped column. To access the specific forum thread on which a question is based, click on the “Topic” for that question.

Topic #1 – In an eight team league where two goalies start and categories are G, A, PIM, PPP, SOG, FW, HIT, BLK, W, GAA, SV, SV%, SHO, a GM owns Filip Gustavsson and Vitek Vanecek and wants to add a third goalie. Should they grab Logan Thompson or Akira Schmid?

First off, we have to look at the categories. Arguably just one is volume-based, as back-ups can get more shutouts per start because often they're often matched against weaker teams than starters. So if one of Thompson or Schmid was likely to play and handful – or more – games than the other, it might not really matter if the one who plays fewer is an all-around better goalie.

As I write this, early returns for both goalies in New Jersey has been lackluster at best. Yes, Schmid is getting regular starts, but he's not earning more through his play. Although a case is often made for Schmid based on the 2023 playoffs, yes he was light out in two games, but let's not forget that of his six playoff starts, three were really bad starts! In short, he was the definition of feast or famine. And a team on the rise like New Jersey is not going to want that kind of inconsistency from somehow who will be the starter. In fact, with Schmid waivers eligible, he could even get sent down at some point to get him more seasoning, with the Devils turning to a more experienced back-up to push Vanecek for starts.

Thompson showed he was talented last season; however, Adin Hill's playoff heroics were enough to convince the Knights to pay him starter money. So although Thompson is likely in no danger of being sent down, and would have to clear waivers, like Schmid he too is hurt by playing behind a better paid netminder. Still, as we saw last season the Knights are not above handing the reins to the guy who's playing best; so it is conceivable that Thompson can steal starts from Hill.

Yes, owning Schmid would give the team both New Jersey netminders, but I'm not sure that is the ticket to doing best, all things considered. I'd roll with Thompson, who plays for a very good team, should get more starts than Schmid, and could also put up better numbers.

Topic #2 – In a 14 team H2H keeper with skater categories of Goals, Assists, PPP, Hits, Block, who is the better own for 2023-24 and for three years down the road: Alex Newhook or Marco Rossi?

So much has been written about how Alex Lafreniere (more on him below) has disappointed, when let's not forget Rossi was selected in the same 2020 draft. Yes, Rossi lost a year to COVID; but since then he's done nothing to inspire confidence. Part of that is that it's difficult to envision him centering Minnesota's top line of Kirill Kaprizov and Mats Zuccarrello. That's because Zuccarello, like Rossi, is undersized, and there's no way the Widld leave Kaprizov vulnerable like that. Wonder why Ryan Hartman keeps getting chances on that line? He's a physical player who'll keep things safe for the team's top star, something that Rossi couldn't do.

The other issue is Joel Eriksson-Ek just keeps getting better, having seen his scoring rate increase for the fifth season in a row in 2022-23. He's seemingly not ceding the second line center gig, and as such Rossi toils in the bottom-six.

This is where I also have to remind readers of data I've cited many times when writing about Rossi, which is that although undersized wings have a track record of success, the same can't be said for centers, as we have to go all the way back to Derek Roy and Daniel Briere to find two who were even above average. The rest – and there aren't many – had lackluster performance, as topping the list in terms of points per game are David Desharnais and Tyler Johnson. Ouch!

This isn't to say Newhook is a runaway winner. Last season he was supposed to slot in as the second line center in Colorado to replace the departed Nazem Kadri. But he struggled and was shipped out of town to Montreal, where he has Nick Suzuki blocking him. Still, by playing an added couple of minutes a game and a bit more on the man advantage, Newhook is faring well as I write this. Montreal didn't trade for Newhook to not give him a chance to shine; so I'd expect him to have a long top-six leash, which is a lot better than top-six barriers for Rossi. I certainly like Newhook better for 2023-24.

As for three years from now, by then the Wild will be out of cap hell, allowing them to bring in a top line center to pair with Kaprizov. Perhaps Zuccarello will have retired, although the way he plays he could seemingly go on doing what he's doing until age 40 or even later. As such, Rossi's path to the top line, even if – big if – deserved, could still be blocked by his size. And again, that also assumes Minnesota doesn't land a pricey top line pivot to give Kaprizov what's he's yet to have in his young career. So I don't think things get prettier for Rossi come three years from now. As for Newhook, chances are Suzuki will still be blocking him, but you never know. And Newhook likely will have had time to cement his status as a top-six fixture. Newhook is the one to own both now and down the road.

Topic #3 – In a one year league with skater scoring: Goals 2, Assists 1, Power Play Points (PPP) 0.5, Short Handed Points (SHP) 1, Hat Tricks (HAT) 3, Shots on goal (SOG) 0.1, Hits (HIT) 0.1, Blocked Shots (BLK) 0.5, who's the better own: Kaapo Kakko or Alexis Lafreniere?

Perhaps never before has "better" been a more of relative word. In these two you have players who have significantly disappointed, and now they're on a team helmed by a coach who's notorious for playing veterans over youngsters. And sure enough neither one has seen a jump in their ice time overall or on the PP. Worse yet, they're not forcing the issue, as they continue to fail to produce.

But the question asked for which one is the better of the two, so I have to pick one, and for me it's Kakko. He's at least shooting more this season; and let's not forget that as a rookie he had 13 PPPts, or more than double what Laffy has tallied in his cumulative career to date. I also have to mention again that Laffy's three most comparable players based on his output in his first three seasons are Marco Sturm, Taylor Pyatt, and Dainius Zubrus. Two of those three were not busts by any means; however, neither one was anywhere near a great player, and they didn't pan out until age 27. More and more I fear Laffy is collapsing under the continued weight of having been a first overall pick, and only after people move on from that might – emphasis on might – he have a chance of being halfway decent ala Zubrus or Sturm.

With Kakko, not only are we seeing signs of life in his SOG rate, but as a larger player he's still got a while to go before he hits his 400-game breakout threshold. Kakko did pick up steam in the second half last season, giving hope that he could be improving. Will he get a chance to break out under Laviolette? It remains to be seen, as like Laffy he's getting chances on a scoring line. Although Kakko is not….well….scoring…he's at least showing that he is not out of place. Whereas the Rangers have Artemi Panarin and Chris Kreider who play the same position as Laffy, only Blake Wheeler slots at RW like Kakko. I think Kakko gets the edge, with Laffy looking more and more like a true disappointment.

Topic #4 – In a 16 team H2H Dynasty league with goalie categories of W/GAA/SV%/SO and prospects being defined as those with up to 41 games played, how would these goalies be ranked: Connor Ingram, Joey Daccord, Arvid Soderblom?

As I write this, all three – despite their lack of a long NHL resumes – are back-ups for their respective teams. So far, they've not looked out of place. What does this mean in terms of their value, both now and looking ahead? Let's figure that out.

Ingram has the longest NHL resume of the three, which says a lot considering prior to this season he'd logged a grand total of 28 NHL games. But coming to Arizona was not only a good landing spot for him in terms of situation, but he fared pretty well, as although his GAA was well above 3.00 for the Yotes last season, his SV% was .907. Of the 22 goalies who last season played in 25+ games while sporting a GAA above 3.00, his SV% was tops among all of them. Although Karel Vejmelka looks to be "the guy" in net for Arizona, he's not so entrenched or so well paid as to be immune to Ingram playing his way into a 1B, 1A or even starter role.

Daccord, despite having appeared in at least one NHL game in four separate seasons, had a mere 19 games played prior to 2023-24. Still, he'd done all he could be expected to do at the AHL level, earning a chance to be a full-time NHLer. Although Phillip Grubauer is being paid quite a bit, let's not forget there was a time when Martin Jones was getting more playing time that Grubs. Seattle is hoping not to have Daccord be pressed into a large role, though they likely would be open to it given what they did with Jones, who has some of the worst numbers over the past several seasons of any NHL netminder.

Soderblom is on the Hawks, who entered 2023-24 with Petr Mrazek as their anointed starter. That is likely music to Soderblom owners' ears given that Mrazek, during the rare stretches he's able to remain healthy, hasn't exactly been lights out in net and is four seasons removed from the last where he had above a 50% quality start percentage. So Soderblom might be the one of the three with the best chance to factor into the starter picture, although it's for the Hawks, which of the three teams figures to be by far the weakest. That all having been said, Soderblom is the only one of the three who is waivers-exempt, meaning that either if he doesn't play well or the Hawks want him to play every day, he could conceivably be sent down.

Despite his team and waivers status, Soderblom is who I'd grab. Ingram is a close second, but I feel the Yotes want to run with Vejmelka, who has already shown he can carry the load of a starting netminder, as has Grubauer, hurting Daccord. While Daccord might have the most talent of the three, and plays for the best team, I just don't like his situation as much as I do the others. I'm taking Soderblom, with Ingram a close second and then Daccord.

Topic #5 –In a one year league with skater scoring of G(6), A(4), BLK(1), HIT(1), TKWY(2), GWG(6), and PIM(-1), who is the best own: Jake Guentzel, Alex DeBrincat, or Filip Forsberg?

A return to his hometown has suited DeBrincat quite well in the early going, although Guentzel has looked quite strong too even after there was concern he'd be slow out of the gate due to an injury that had been thought to keep him out of the lineup for at least the first few games of the 2023-24 season. Forsberg may be a bit behind the two early on as far as scoring, but his TOI is way up, as is his SOG rate, boding well for the season ahead.

Forsberg is still a Pred, and he's also a player who, other than the season before he was set to be an UFA, has never been outstanding. Does he have it within him to excel? Seemingly yes; but does he have the motivation now that his wallet is fat? I can't be so sure. Or to put it another way, I'm not choosing him when these other two are also choices, especially given that his huge 2021-22, plus that of the now departed Matt Duchene, marked the first times any Pred forward had bested the point per game mark in 15 seasons!

Those turning cartwheels over DeBrincat's start in Detroit should perhaps pump the brakes, as his ice time actually is lower than any regular seasonssince back in his rookie campaign. And although he's firmly entrenched on PP1, the Wings don't seem to drawing a lot of penalties, which, if it continues, will negatively affect DeBrincat's ability to maintain top tier scoring output. Still, of the three he's at an age where it is viable for him to take it up another notch. And this is a player who averaged at least a goal per every other game three times in the past five seasons, with the others who did so three or more times in those same five seasons being among the NHL's best of the best, like Nathan MacKinnon, David Pastrnak, Alex Ovechkin, Connor McDavid, Auston Matthews, Steven Stamkos, and Leon Draisaitl, each of whom, other than Stamkos, has scored at a 100+ point pace at least three times, with Stamkos reaching 96+ three times. So looking at those players for comparison, this might just be a sign of things to come for DeBrincat.

Guentzel is no slouch either. Yes, his scoring faltered last season versus the previous three, but the Pens are going all-in for 2023-24, with him standing to be a big beneficiary. And this is only a one-year league, so it's the here and now that matters, making DeBrincat's very bright future of no consequence.

Simply put, Guentzel is the safe pick, i.e., the one with the highest floor. He has a track record and his team is stacked. DeBrincat might be breaking out right before our eyes, although if we look at his underlying numbers they don't suggest his early pace is sustainable. Although there is a goal benefit, Guentzel puts plenty of pucks in the net too. And looking at their other multi-cat stats doesn't tilt the scales either. I think it honestly boils down to the rest of your team, as if you have a lot of guys who likewise have high floors, you take Guentzel and bank on winning because of baked in consistency, while if your team consists of players whose output is more uncertain, go with DeBrincat and hope he gives the team a bigger boost.

Topic #6 – In a 12 Team Weekly H2H, Daily Lineups. Keep 7 + 1 Prospect (<164 NHL games) league with skater categories and scoring as follows: G(3), A(2), D Pts (addt’l 0.7), +/-(0.5), PPP(addt’l 1), SHP(addt’l 0.5), SOG(0.4), BLK(0.8), who is the better own for this season, Ryan O'Reilly or Sean Couturier?

I know I just got through saying that the Preds are not a strong offensive team, but it seems like they're the perfect landing spot for O'Reilly, as over the past couple of seasons he was still in the top six but in amore of a shutdown role. With the Preds though, he's being looked upon for his offense too, and has seemed up for the task in the early going.

But Couturier is doing similar things in Philly, and let's not forget that Couturier had a streak of four straight seasons of 70+ point production before a big drop in 2021-22 and missing all of last season. And Couturier is nearly two years younger than O'Reilly, plus is more likely to have extra gas in the tank due to missing 2022-23 entirely.

Both are cemented on PP1, and neither has a particularly strong supporting cast, although one could liken Travis Konecny in Philly to Filip Forsberg in Nashville. But the Preds also have some blueline punch in Roman Josi and Tyson Barrie, whereas there is really no one who is in their class on the Flyers.

Let's also not forget that Morgan Frost was scorching at the end of 2022-23. So although I think it'd be unlikely for Frost to elbow Couturier off the top line, it's more likely to occur than for the likes of Tommy Novak or Cody Glass to do the same with O'Reilly. And Couturier already was "banged up" this season, despite not missing any games. So it's possible the rigors of a full 82 game schedule after missing all of 2022-23 could leave him vulnerable to reinjury, or, if not that, then fatigue over the course of the campaign.

One thing to like about ROR in Nashville thus far is he's seen his SOG per game jump after it had slipped for two straight seasons. Couturier, on the other hand, is shooting less than his norm, at least for the time being. Looking all important offensive zone starting percentage though, while Couturier's is a far from stellar 44.7% when I write this, O'Reilly's is 39%, which is too low to be able to produce at anywhere near the rate he is thus far. And Couturier's IPPs thus far have been low, making his healthy scoring pace more impressive.

Although on the surface their deployments seem similar, it's Couturier who is getting more chances in the offensive zone and not getting as much puck luck. So although he is an injury risk, so too is O'Reilly given that he's older and only managed 53 games last season. I'm going with Couturier here, by a whisker.

Topic #7 – Is there a chance that Ryan Donato will break out if he gets a long look with Connor Bedard this season?

When Donato had two points in his first two games, people started paying attention, as evidenced by this Forum thread. But lo and behold he's come back to earth. Can he still make a mark this season? It would be unlikely in my opinion.

The individual who started the thread pointed to the likes of Matt Moulson and P.A. Parenteau as examples of journeymen who benefitted from playing with star in the making John Tavares. But the difference there was they'd mainly been AHLers who didn't really get a chance until they played with Tavares, where they shined, at least briefly. Donato, on the other hand, has been in the NHL and played 50+ games each of the past five seasons, failing to reach the point per every other game even once.

But Donato did manage to shoot a decent amount, averaging over two SOG per game in three of those campaigns. His scoring, though not great, was consistent, landing between 0.33 and 0.5 points per game each season. Looking at other forwards who averaged 1.5-2.5 SOG per game and 0.33 and 0.5 points per game several times by age 26, we get the likes of Nick Ritchie, Tanner Pearson, Ryan Strome, Valeri Nichushkin, Andrew Shaw, J.G. Pageau, Couturier, Nikolai Kulemin, Steve Bernier, Patrick Eaves, and Oleg Saprykin. Frankly, I was surprised to see several players who did end up having some fantasy relevance, although to be fair there were more who never amounted to much of anything.

What worries me most about Donato is how many teams from which he's come and gone – four in five seasons. So basically, he failed to impress any of these teams enough to convince them to give him a sustained shot. That's in contrast to Pearson, Strome, and Nichushkin, and Shaw, who all played on at most two teams in a similar time period.

While there is not a long line of players who outclass Donato on Chicago, the likes of Taylor Raddysh, Andres Athanasiou, and Corey Perry all play right wing as well, making it so Donato will not have a very long leash. And with him not showing much since his first two games, it could mean his audition on the top line will have been a failure, at least for now.

In sum, players who put up similar stats as Donato and went on to success were unlike him in not having bounced around so much. Although Chicago is not brimming with all-star caliber talent at right wing, they have options at least as talented – on paper – as Donato. I'd say keep your eye on him and perhaps plug him into your line-up if he heats up. But don't plan on him being a long-term success, as the odds are stacked against him.

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Questions for Mailbag column needed

The upcoming edition of my monthly mailbag still has room for more questions, which you can send me by either private messaging “rizzeedizzee” via the DobberHockey Forums, or emailing [email protected] with “Roos Mailbag” as the subject line.