Ramblings: Montembeault Signs, Nemec Debut, Wilson the Multicategory Beast (Dec 2)

Ian Gooding

2023-12-02

Sam Montembeault has signed a three-year extension worth $9.45 million (cap hit $3.15 million) to remain with Montreal. This is a significant raise over his current cap hit of $1 million, set to expire at the end of the season. Given the Canadiens' rebuilding state, Montembeault has performed reasonably well (2.73 GAA, .910 SV%) while showing better numbers than the more experienced Jake Allen. Montembeault has also upped his game recently with three wins and four quality starts over his last four games.

Although he has mostly split the goaltending with Allen this season, Montembeault seems like the better Habs goalie to roster right now and may even earn the lion's share of the goaltending going forward. However, Allen has one more year on his contract after this one with a higher cap hit of $3.85 million, which should also be taken into account.

I didn't discuss much from the late games yesterday because there were 14 games on Thursday but only two games on Friday. In other words, I like to spread out my work a bit so I don't have close to 3000 words in one Ramblings and less than 1000 words in another. That also allows me to finish and go to bed at a decent time.

Now that we've got that out of the way, here's the mention of the Tom Wilson hat trick in Thursday's late game against Anaheim. I'm happy to bring up Wilson here because he's had some interesting statlines recently. On Thursday, two of Wilson's three goals were on the power play, while he also stuffed the statsheet with four penalty minutes and seven shots on goal. What about hits? Only one on Thursday, but you can't have it all. Scoring goals might mean less time for hitting.

I thought that Wilson's Top 100 Roto Ranking of 17, set by Bangers Fantasy Hockey at the start of the season, was a bit high. Yet now I can see a reason for it. December 1 is the beginning of advent calendar season, so it seems fitting that I discuss a player who is like an advent calendar in roto leagues. In other words, you know you'll be getting something – you just don't know what it will be.

Prior to Thursday, Wilson had been held without a point in his last three games, but he has posted shot totals of 7, 6, and 7 over three of his last four games. That has pushed his shot average up to 3 SOG/GP for the season, which is half a shot higher than his previous career best last season. He has also averaged close to three hits per game this season, which would put him on pace for over 200 hits again. Not one to ever lose his edge, Wilson's 43 PIM also places him in the top 10 in that category. Wilson doesn't have an assist in his last eight games, but we should be willing to overlook that given the contributions in these other categories.

Michael Carcone has 10 goals in 21 games, heating up recently with four goals and an assist over his last four games. Who is that, you ask? Well, Carcone plays for Arizona and has been skating on what appears to be a middle-6 line along with Jason Zucker and Alex Kerfoot. Moreover, his recent run has been without any power-play time. We are still in the phase of the season where shooting percentages will be abnormally high, and Carcone's is at 32.3%. For those reasons, it's difficult to assume that this recent scoring run will continue, although he may be able to move up the lineup with his recent play.

Akira Schmid faced 47 shots on Thursday, so a back-to-back game on Friday meant a start for Vitek Vanecek, right? Nope. A date with the Sharks would have been the perfect get-well card for the struggling Vanecek, but Lindy Ruff isn't trusting Vanecek right now. Schmid was thrown back out there for what seemed like an easy match on paper, but he sputtered in allowing five goals on just 17 shots in a 6-3 loss to San Jose.

Ruff may turn to Vanecek for the Devils' next game on Tuesday in Vancouver (an all-Hughes matchup!), but right now it's hard to rely on either New Jersey goalie. Only those same Sharks have allowed more goals per game than the Devils (3.73 GA/GP). Goaltending has been holding back a team that was expected to take a major step forward this season, but instead is stuck at the back of the peloton well behind the front-running Rangers in the Atlantic Division. I've benched Vanecek on one of my teams for a few games, and now I'm thinking I should do the same with Schmid on another one of my teams.

With Dougie Hamilton headed to IR following surgery for a torn pectoral muscle, Simon Nemec was recalled and made his NHL regular-season debut. The second overall pick in 2022, 19-year-old Nemec registered two assists in 22:38 of icetime while being paired with Jonas Siegenthaler. One of Nemec's assists was on the power play, as he assisted on Dawson Mercer's goal while playing second-unit minutes. Nemec's usage seemed to be that of a regular defenseman as opposed to a rookie that hasn't paid his dues with the coach, but the Hamilton injury and a suspension (first game of two) to Brendan Smith meant that the Devils defense was undermanned.

How long Nemec stays in the NHL could depend on how long Hamilton is out, as both are right-shot defensemen. Beyond that, the other main factor will be how NHL-ready he is, as he will also be battling the likes of John Marino, Kevin Bahl, and Colin Miller for minutes. Offensive upside is one thing, but ability to defend at the NHL level matters more to an NHL coach. Miller and Smith are both UFAs after the season, so at the very least expect Nemec to be a full-time player in 2024-25. In the here and now, he's worth a pickup for fantasy teams that need help with scoring on defense.

One bit of good news for the Devils: Timo Meier returned to the lineup after missing the past seven games with a lower-body injury. Meier was held without a point and was a minus-2, but he took five shots on goal.

The Sharks seemed ripe for the picking after playing the second of back-to-back nights themselves, but instead they showed some impressive performances at both ends of the ice. Anthony Duclair and Jacob MacDonald each scored two goals. MacDonald falls into the "helps no one" category. Duclair is falling dangerously close into that category himself, as he entered this game with no points in his previous eight games.

Remember Mikael Granlund, the player that the Penguins couldn't move off of quickly enough? He's suddenly hot with six points in his last four games, including a goal and two assists on Friday. Granlund has rebounded after a rough start (0 G and 4 A in first 13 GP) to jump into second place in Sharks team scoring. Like the Sharks who have won three of their past four games, Granlund might not be as bad as you think. He may even be an option for deeper leagues (4% Yahoo/11% Fantrax).

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Kaapo Kahkonen stopped 44 of 47 shots in earning a win, which was also his second consecutive win and quality start. I'm not there on Sharks goaltending just yet, but their recent play might mean they are not as much of a risk as they were early in the season.

Like the Sharks, the Blue Jackets have been playing better hockey recently, having won four of their past six games. Elvis Merzlikins stopped 41 of 43 shots he faced in the Jackets' 4-2 win over Ottawa. Merzlikins has moved from simply awful territory to just average this season, which is actually a giant leap. He has been a game-saver for Columbus recently, having posted quality starts in four of his last five outings while facing at least 35 shots in all four of those quality starts. It seems safe to start him in fantasy leagues again.

The Jackets aren't loaded with hot players, but one has been rookie Dmitri Voronkov, who made the jump to the NHL this season from the KHL. With a goal on Friday, Voronkov now has points in each of his last three games with a very solid 12 points in 19 games. Most recently, Voronkov has been on an all-Russian line with Kirill Marchenko and Yegor Chinakhov. Before recommending Voronkov for fantasy, I'd like to see him increase his shot total (1.2 SOG/GP), which seems to be correlated with his relatively low icetime (12:44 ATOI). He is at least receiving the equivalent of second-unit power-play minutes.

Because I am curious and want to compare struggling players across various teams of mine, I generated a Frozen Tools Player Compare of ex-Flame Johnny Gaudreau to current Flame Jonathan Huberdeau. You can see the results here. It may (or may not) surprise you that Huberdeau has been the more productive player this season. Simply put, Huberdeau is on pace for a 53-point season (similar to last season) while Gaudreau is way down from last season with a 43-point pace this season. This in spite of Johnny Hockey picking up two power-play assists on Friday, the same as Huberdeau did in his last game on Thursday against Dallas.  

Gaudreau had been held without a point in his last two games in a week of four light-day games, so he hasn't rebounded as I'd hoped for two of my teams. Most concerning is the fact that Gaudreau has just three goals in 25 games. The good news is that he's shooting just 5.4% this season when he shot between 15-17% in his last two seasons in Calgary, so more pucks should start going in. The bad news is that he's down a shot per game from his final season in Calgary. He'll improve, but like Huberdeau, another 100-point season seems like nothing more than a dream.

Thomas Chabot returned to the Senators’ lineup on Friday after missing all of November with a fractured hand. He wasn’t exactly eased into the lineup, playing a season-high 26:41 while assisting on Brady Tkachuk‘s power-play goal and taking three shots. Get him back into your lineup.

Thoughts are with Dylan Larkin during this difficult time. Larkin has been out of the Wings' lineup for the past two games, but he is expected to rejoin the lineup today (Saturday) against Montreal. Again, a reminder that some things are more important than fantasy hockey.

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UPCOMING GAMES

Dec 22 - 12:12 NYR vs CAR
Dec 22 - 17:12 T.B vs FLA
Dec 22 - 17:12 UTA vs ANA
Dec 22 - 17:12 WSH vs L.A
Dec 22 - 20:12 EDM vs OTT
Dec 22 - 20:12 COL vs SEA

Starting Goalies

Top Skater Views

  Players Team
PATRIK LAINE MTL
LANE HUTSON MTL
JACKSON LACOMBE ANA
DYLAN GUENTHER UTA
ALEX TURCOTTE L.A

Top Goalie Profile Views

  Players Team
JESPER WALLSTEDT MIN
MACKENZIE BLACKWOOD COL
KAREL VEJMELKA UTA
LEEVI MERILAINEN OTT
FILIP GUSTAVSSON MIN

LINE COMBOS

  Frequency COL Players
47.6 VALERI NICHUSHKIN NATHAN MACKINNON ARTTURI LEHKONEN
33.9 LOGAN O'CONNOR JOEL KIVIRANTA PARKER KELLY
32.8 MIKKO RANTANEN CASEY MITTELSTADT ROSS COLTON

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