Every Sunday, we share 21 Fantasy Rambles from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s 'Daily Ramblings'.

Writers/Editors: Ian Gooding, Michael Clifford, Alexander MacLean, Brennan Des and Dobber

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The 2024 Midseason Guide will be available later this week, on January 12. Look for second-half projections, sleepers, advanced stats, historical trends and prospects you need to know. For more information and to make your purchase, click here.

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1. We haven’t had a big goalie moved mid-season in a while now, and I’m curious if we will see one this year. Between Jacob Markstrom, Juuse Saros, John Gibson, Karel Vejmelka, Jake Allen, Anton Forsberg, and one of Washington’s duo possibly being available among others, there’s supply to match the demand that can be seen across the Devils, Sabres, Leafs, Senators, Kings, and possibly Red Wings looking for more than just a depth goalie.

Odds are there won’t be a big move just because there never is, but the ingredients are there for a change to the status quo. Part of the reason that we don’t see big goalie moves mid-season is because goalies can really struggle when moving to a new team, which is why much more often we see teams move down to their third, fourth, and fifth string goalies internally, or trading for a journeyman backup (who is used to the adaptation) rather than spending big for an upgrade.

To bring it back to fantasy, if there’s a goalie moved, then the guy you want to target actually isn’t someone like Gibson for example, moving to LA or New Jersey, but instead Lukas Dostal becomes a must-add for the rest of the year. He would be a goalie comfortable in his team’s system, and suddenly his usage triples, adding a ton of fantasy relevant volume.

Just a general thought to consider as I put the finishing touches on the “On The Block” segment of the DobberHockey Midseason Guide that you can pre-order here. (jan5)

2. If Connor Bedard is on your keeper team, I’m sure you’d love to bubble wrap him to protect him from the dangers of a full-contact sport. Regardless, starring in hockey means risking an injury at any point. Bedard left Friday’s game with what was confirmed on Saturday as a broken jaw and he'll be out for the next 4-6 weeks.

If you’re looking for a “who benefits” from a Bedard injury, well, don’t expect a whole lot. Bedard leads the team with 33 points, while no other Chicago player has more than 22 points. Philipp Kurashev and Jason Dickinson were the two Hawks forwards to play over 20 minutes. Kurashev has been on Bedard’s line for much of the season, and he’s already without a point in his last three games. With no Bedard last season, Kurashev was a 25-point player (in 70 games). This season, he’s already just three points shy of that number. Dickinson, a checking-line center on just about any other team, has surprisingly already scored a career-high 13 goals. An increase in his ice time could be offset by potential regression from a 21.3 SH%.

I’ll take this a step further and even suggest that you’ll want your goalies – even your slumping ones – starting against the Blackhawks. With Bedard in the lineup, the Hawks have the league’s second-worst offense (2.31 GF/GP). If he misses time, the scoring will most likely dry up even further.

The Hawks have already lost Taylor Raddysh, Tyler Johnson, and Anthony Beauvillier on their recent road trip. You’re going to need a program to figure out who plays for Chicago in the near future. On top of that, Nick Foligno also left Friday’s game with a broken finger after fighting Brendan Smith in response to Smith’s hit on Bedard. The Hawks’ lengthy injury list also includes Taylor Hall, Seth Jones, Joey Anderson, and Andreas Athanasiou. (jan6)

3. The Professional Women’s Hockey League launched their inaugural season last Monday. Through all the ups and downs of the professional women’s hockey leagues over the last five-ish years, all the top players now have one league to play in. I will not profess to know the details of the behind-the-scenes machinations to get this done, so all I will say is that this has a real chance of being a big success in their respective locales (just look at how women’s soccer and basketball has grown over the last decade). For anyone with a team in their area, get out and support them if you’re able. Nothing but the best of success to all those involved as they get this league off the ground. (jan2)

4. Miro Heiskanen (lower body) is listed as week-to-week according to Stars coach Peter DeBoer. Heiskanen is having a slightly down season in terms of production (27 PTS in 37 GP) after a 73-point season, but he has been hot recently with 11 points in his last 11 games.

With Heiskanen on the shelf, Thomas Harley warrants an immediate pickup in many leagues. Entering Saturday, Harley was already on a 40-point pace (17 PTS in 43 GP), and his scoring pace should increase while quarterbacking one of the league’s better power plays (22.4 PP%). Nils Lundkvist has been a frequent healthy scratch since early December, so the Heiskanen injury is an opportunity for him to return to the lineup and log second-unit power-play minutes. (jan6)

5. Continuing on the theme of injuries, Max Pacioretty made his long-awaited return from an Achilles injury on Wednesday, then played in his second game as a Capital on Friday. He has yet to record a point this season, but he at least took three shots on Friday and saw his ice time increase to 14:31. He was a PP1 regular for close to a decade, but the Capitals have yet to use him on their top unit with Ovechkin and company. He may need a bit of time to break in on his new team.

If push comes to shove, and depending on the size of your league, you may have to drop Pacioretty, a player who has missed close to a season and a half with this Achilles injury. He is now 35 years old, and it’s entirely possible he may never be at full speed again. (jan6)

6. How do you like Nikolaj Ehlers on the top power play? It’s been a long wait, hasn’t it? It’s taken an injury to Kyle Connor for it to happen, but better late than never. Since December 10, which is around the time Connor was injured, Ehlers has generally appeared in over 50% of the Jets’ available power-play minutes each game. During that time, Ehlers has 14 points over his last 13 games, and… wait, just one power-play point? That kind of kills the narrative here, but more power-play points should be on their way. Ehlers has also mainly been on the top line with Mark Scheifele and Gabriel Vilardi during that time. (jan6)

7. Congratulations to the United States on winning this season’s World Junior Championship, winning the gold medal game 6-2. Isaac Howard, who looks like Tampa Bay’s top prospect, scored a pair of goals in the gold medal game. Howard tied for the tournament goal lead with Vancouver draft pick Jonathan Lekkerimaki, who was named tournament MVP. Czechia defeated Finland 8-5 in a high-scoring bronze medal game. (jan6)

8. The big news from Wednesday was Los Angeles Kings prospect Brandt Clarke getting the call. At time of writing, Clarke was leading the AHL in points from a defenceman and tied for third in the league among all skaters. He is arguably the top defence prospect outside the NHL this season. The Kings have been on a big 5-on-5 scoring skid despite still generating a lot of shots, so maybe this is the shot in the arm they need to get some goals on the board. It is hard to see him skating a top-4 role by ice time, so we’ll have to see how he’s used, but this is a big development for fantasy managers and the team. (jan4) 

LA has lost Tobias Bjornfot on waivers to Vegas, so there shouldn’t be a rush for Clarke to be sent back down. He should be here to stay for the stretch run, and could really be a fantasy difference maker down the stretch. I expect this move to hurt Jordan Spence in the process. (jan5)

9. The Flames assigned Oliver Kylington to the AHL for conditioning. It would be great to see Kylington back on NHL ice after nearly two years away, and with the Flames possibly moving on from some other Dmen, Kylington could jump right into some big minutes in the second half of the season. (jan5)

10. Brennan Othmann made his NHL debut on Thursday. The Rangers could use some help on the wings, so if Othmann can become an impact regular the rest of the way then he makes the deadline plans for the Rangers a lot easier. That in addition to Kaapo Kakko being back on the ice for practice gives the Rangers a few options.

Othmann recorded five shots and three hits in 13 minutes of ice time in his first game, but didn’t record a point. If he keeps up something close to those rates then he may be rosterable in some fantasy leagues in the second half. (jan5)

11. There was some worry in the offseason about how David Pastrnak would fare after losing the top two centres on his team, and with an aging Brad Marchand on his opposite wing. Well I think we can fairly say that he has put those questions to rest, and those of us that took him any later than 10^th overall in fantasy drafts this summer are laughing all the way to the bank with what he has done so far.

He has been fantastic, and if Boston acquires a top centre like Elias Lindholm at the deadline, then he could even see a little boost to close out the year. At the moment he’s bringing Morgan Geekie along for the ride (three points as well last night). (jan5)

12. With this year’s talented rookie crop being what it is, it seems as though Connor Zary is flying under the radar a little as someone who started the season a dozen games in, so his totals don’t jump off the page too much to this point. He has 8-11-19 in 29 games so far, good for a 54-point-pace, which could rise in the second half with some added ice time with teammates being traded. (jan5)

13. Matt Duchene continues his quiet revival in Dallas with 34 points in 36 games entering Saturday action. He is one of the least-consistent producers year to year, and for that reason I haven’t owned him in fantasy in a long time. Big reward to those that gambled on him this year though. (jan5)

14. One rate stat I use frequently is scoring chance assists per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 (SCA/60). The two reasons for that are that it demonstrates a playmaking skill that can project from year to year, as well as which players are helping their linemates create chances (and, hopefully, goals). Not all assists are created equal, but parsing small samples even further doesn’t help.

Let’s look at which forwards are seeing growth or decline in SCA/60 when compared to last year. They can help identify players that may be getting (un)lucky points-wise, which can help point us to which players may or may not see a turnaround in their production over the second half of the season.

15. For example: Tage Thompson, Casey Mittelstadt, and JJ Peterka.

There are 21 forwards on the list that have all seen drops of at least 2.0 SCA/60 when compared to 2022-23. Of those 21 forwards, three of them are the Buffalo Sabres named above. I am sure that Mittelstadt fantasy owners are not upset with his production, but it’s worth pointing out his primary assist rate at 5-on-5 is down nearly 10% from last season so the improvements in his overall production are a function of shooting percentage, secondary assists, and ice time. It isn’t a bad tradeoff, but something to keep an eye on.  

Peterka has a similar issue. He is averaging an extra 1:49 per game at 5-on-5, has seen his shooting percentage rise nearly 2%, and has more than doubled his secondary assist rate. However, his primary assist rate has declined. There isn’t something to worry over here long-term, but if his shooting percentage, ice time, and secondary assists dry up without improvements elsewhere, so will the points in the second half.

Whatever is going on with Thompson, the team needs to figure it out. He is too talented to see both his goals and assists per minute completely crater. At time of writing, he was generating lower-quality shots than his three-year Buffalo average by 16% and his chance assists had fallen off considerably. It is concerning when hoping for a second-half turnaround, though he has enough skill to make it happen.

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16. I have a feeling that unless you own Brady Skjei you don’t fully realize how excellent he has been this season. Entering Wednesday, he was on pace to put up his best season since his rookie year, and pacing the Carolina defencemen in scoring. Coming into the year the pecking order was supposed to have Brent Burns as the top-dog, Tony DeAngelo as the number two and power play specialist, with Dmitry Orlov mopping up most of the rest of the offence. Jaccob Slavin, Brett Pesce, and Brady Skjei were supposed to be afterthoughts. However, at time of writing, Skjei and Slavin had a combined 43 points through just 38 games. This Carolina team is one game-breaking forward and some consistent goaltending away from walking through the East to the Stanley Cup final this year. (jan3)

17. Alex Ovechkin wasted no time in 2024, scoring in his first game this year. After being held without a shot in two of the first three games of the season, he hasn’t gone shotless in a game since. Everyone who says age is finally catching up with him is going to look foolish in the second half – I’m telling you, the dam is breaking, and he’s going to pot at least 25 between now and the end of the year. (jan3)

18. In doing research for the Dobber Midseason Guide (which you should pre-order here) I noticed that Steven Stamkos is actually a free agent at the end of the season. Last time he hit free agency, he was the talk of the town for the entire year leading up to it. This time however there seems to be hardly a whisper, and the expectation seems to be that he will just calmly re-up with the Lightning and probably retire there.

The Toronto native in me wants him to take a discount to come to the Leafs, but realistically he will take a bit of a pay cut to stick in Tampa, and continue the good thing they have going there. I haven’t gotten around to updating my salary projections yet (though I will by the end of the month for the latest Cap League Rankings update) but my feeling is that something similar to Joe Pavelski‘s contract at the same age would make sense. Pavelski took a three-year deal at $7 million which took him through his age 35-38 seasons, and while Stamkos while only be turning 34 this February, not everyone can expect to age as gracefully as Pavelski has. A $7 million price tag then comes out to about $7.5 million now, which sounds like a reasonable number for both Stamkos and the Bolts at this point. (jan3)

19. The last calendar year in the NHL has seen a lot of intriguing fantasy performances. One reason why I like looking at a calendar year is because it includes two halves of two seasons (or thereabouts) and helps catch players who started ascending at the end of the 2022-23 season and kept up something close to that level to start the 2023-24 season. With just the Winter Classic game on the docket for New Year’s Day, let’s look at some notable fantasy performances from calendar 2023, outside of the elite players:

Adrian Kempe

Specifying which single player is the most underrated in the league is often an exercise personal bias, but one of the names that should be in the conversation is Kempe. Last year saw him tied with Brayden Point for fifth in goals scored per minute at all strengths, just edging out Nathan MacKinnon. Putting Los Angeles’s top winger in the same breath as players like that highlights just how productive he’s been. Of course, as a winger on a team that is deep up front means not a lot of ice time, so he scored 0.11 fewer goals per game than MacKinnon despite a higher per-minute rate, and that matters for fantasy results. Regardless, Kempe doesn’t turn 28 years old until September so he may have another couple years like he’s had lately: a high-end multi-cat fantasy performer when considering his very good shot and hit rates.

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20. Let's continue analyzing player performance from a less conventional calendar-year window. Without further ado, here are a few of my 20 fantasy hockey observations from 2023 (January 1^st – December 30^th).

Dunn Lurking in the Shadows

Vince Dunn has 75 points in 84 games this year. Maybe I’ve been living under a rock, but I honestly had no idea he’d had been scoring at such an elite level. I don’t think he’s perceived in the same way that many of the league’s big-name defensemen are, but it’s time we start treating him with the same respect. Quinn Hughes is the only defenseman with more points than Dunn in 2023.

Swaying to Jeremy

It wasn’t by a wide margin, but despite Linus Ullmark‘s heroics last season, Jeremy Swayman has been Boston’s best goalie in 2023. Swayman boasts a .931 save percentage and 2.09 GAA through 40 appearances, while Ullmark holds a .928 and 2.28 through 42. I think we continue seeing a time share in Boston as long as both are under contract with the Bruins. Considering Swayman is five years younger, I imagine the team would be more willing to commit to him long term. Ullmark is an unrestricted free agent after next season, while Swayman is a restricted free agent after this campaign. (jan1)

21. He Will Shoot

William Nylander‘s outstanding season has been well documented, but his evolution into a high-volume shooter remains understated. In 2023, only seven forwards in the league have more shots than Nylander, whos’ averaged 3.89 per game. He ranks ahead of many notorious shooters, including Alex Ovechkin and Jack Eichel.

He’s Always Good Verhaegoal

With 42 goals in 81 games, Carter Verhaeghe sits in the top-10 for league goal-scoring this year. David Pastrnak, Nathan MacKinnon, and Auston Matthews are the only players with more even-strength goals than Verhaeghe in 2023.

Vacillating on Vasilevskiy

Not too long ago, Andrei Vasilevskiy was the undisputed top-dog in fantasy formats, the only netminder you’d feel comfortable using a first-round pick on. Looking back at this past year, it’s evident he hasn’t been providing first-round value. In 2023, he sports a 2.86 GAA and .908 save percentage through 49 appearances. Among goalies who have played at least 10 games this past calendar year, he sits outside the top-25 in both GAA and save percentage. I’m confident he has the talent to bounce back, but considering he just returned from back surgery, and the team in front of him isn’t as good as it once was, I’m not sure when that bounce back will happen. (jan1)

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Have a good week, folks!

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