Every Sunday, we share 21 Fantasy Rambles from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s 'Daily Ramblings'.

Writers/Editors: Ian Gooding, Michael Clifford, Alexander MacLean, Brennan Des and Dobber

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1. With the Superbowl on Sunday, there wasn’t much hockey for us to unpack. To fill the void, I thought I’d share some storylines from the new calendar year.

Ignoring Igor?

Jonathan Quick‘s numbers have been significantly better than Igor Shesterkin‘s this year. Since January 1^st, at time of writing, Shesterkin sported a 3.21 GAA and .868 SV% through 11 games. In contrast, Quick held a 1.98 GAA and .925 SV%. It’s not like Shesterkin has had to face tougher opponents either. Coming out of the All-Star Break, Quick was tasked with facing high-powered offenses in Colorado and Tampa Bay, while Shesterkin faced the lowly Blackhawks. This could be a viable strategy to help Shesterkin build confidence before the playoffs – allowing him to face weaker opponents until he rediscovers his game, so that he’s back to his usual self in time for the playoffs. (feb12)

[Follow the link for more of Brennan's early-2024 storylines…]

2. This happened during one of the later games on Thursday, so I didn’t get a chance to write about it yesterday. Filip Zadina scored two goals and added two assists and a plus-3 in the Sharks’ 6-3 win against Calgary. Even though Zadina was once a high first-round pick (chosen one pick before Quinn Hughes!) this output falls into the “that helps no one” category because (at time of writing) Zadina was 0% rostered in Yahoo and 10% rostered in Fantrax. Zadina had even been on a line with Justin Bailey (who finished with three points) and Ryan Carpenter, and none of those points were on the power play.

Perhaps this one-game output earns Zadina a promotion on a thin Sharks roster that is without both Tomas Hertl and Logan Couture at the moment. Before recommending adding Zadina, I’d need to see more games not necessarily as plentiful as this one, but more games without a zero in the boxscore. That being said, Zadina is a low-risk gamble for a Sharks team on a rebuild, so they can take their time to determine whether he still has any top-6 upside. (feb17)

3. Entering Sunday, the Coyotes had lost eight games in a row, with not a single one of their players on the Frozen Tools hot list. Notable Coyotes on the cold list include Nick Bjugstad (0 PTS in last 8 GP), Sean Durzi and Lawson Crouse (0 PTS in last 6 GP), Nick Schmaltz (0 PTS in last 3 GP), and Logan Cooley (1 PT in last 5 GP). It doesn’t get any easier for them over the next few days, as they play back-to-backs against Colorado today and Edmonton on Monday. (feb17)

4. The Penguins have claimed Matthew Phillips off waivers from the Capitals. I’ve liked Phillips ever since I saw him play in the WHL for the Victoria Royals, but he might be the smallest player in the entire NHL. He’s scored 30+ goals and 65+ points in each of his past two seasons in the AHL, so the Penguins might provide him with a short-term opportunity on a scoring line to fill in for the injured Jake Guentzel. It would be up to him to make good on that opportunity in order to secure a role as a full-time NHLer. (feb17)

5. Blake Wheeler is expected to miss the rest of the regular season with a lower-body injury. He may be able to return during the playoffs depending on how far the Rangers go. According to the Frozen Tools line combinations, Jimmy Vesey has moved up to Wheeler’s spot on the scoring line with Mika Zibanejad and Chris Kreider. Vesey has been heating up recently (4 PTS in last 4 GP), so he could be a player to watch here. So could Kaapo Kakko, who has 3 PTS in his last 3 GP. Vesey and Kakko are rostered in very few Yahoo leagues, so they are potential streams for today’s outdoor game against the Islanders. (feb17)

6. One that I added earlier in the week in anticipation for weekend games is Matt Roy. He’s not an offensive force by any means, but he provides enough in the combined hits and blocks categories. So far he has at least 100 of each, which places him just within the top 20 in that category. Roy actually takes a decent number of shots for a defenseman (92 SOG), so he’s within the top 30 in the combined triple category of SOG+HIT+BLK. There’s no guarantee he’ll fill all three categories in each game, but he averages at least close to two per game in each category.

If scoring is more of what you need, Phillip Danault might be your guy. I thought Danault’s scoring would take a dip with the offseason addition of Pierre-Luc Dubois, but instead Dubois’s scoring has declined. Danault could also benefit from the recent addition of old linemate Viktor Arvidsson to the lineup, giving the Kings more balanced scoring. At time of writing, Danault was rostered in just 20% of Yahoo leagues and 39% of Fantrax leagues. (feb17)

7. Jake Guentzel is expected to miss up to the next four weeks with an upper-body injury that forced him to leave Wednesday’s game. On the final year of his contract, Guentzel has been the subject of trade rumors, particularly if the Penguins cannot find a way to advance above the Eastern Conference playoff bar soon. Guentzel would be projected to return shortly after the March 8 trade deadline, but the risk of trading for an injured player might deter teams from pursuing Guentzel, or at least the Penguins might have to decrease their asking price a bit. (feb16)

8. Connor Bedard returned to the Blackhawks’ lineup from a broken jaw on Thursday, perhaps a week earlier than expected. Wearing a full face shield, Bedard assisted on Philipp Kurashev‘s goal – the only goal of the game for the Blackhawks. Chicago’s offense should improve with Bedard back in the lineup, but it still has a long way to go before it strikes fear into opponents. (feb16)

9. Bedard might be the future face of the league. In the here and now, Sidney Crosby is still very much relevant. Crosby scored a pair of goals in that Thursday game against the Blackhawks, giving him at least 30 goals for the third consecutive season. At time of writing, the 36-year-old Crosby was in the top 10 in goals this season, with the eight other current 30-goal scorers all younger than him. He’s not Sid the Kid anymore. (feb16)

10. The Columbus Blue Jackets have fired general manager Jarmo Kekalainen, with team president John Davidson taking over on an interim basis. The timing of the move might be a surprise, since teams often wait until the offseason to make a move at general manager. However, the move makes sense in that it gives the Jackets a head start in finding a new GM to begin preparing for the offseason. Perhaps there were also differences of opinion for a near-term move such as a trade, which might necessitate a move with the trade deadline approaching.

Kekalainen faced challenges with convincing players to sign long term in Columbus, and the Jackets have faced considerably more injuries than the average team over the last couple seasons. That being said, the NHL is a results-oriented business, and the Jackets are on track to miss the playoffs for the fourth consecutive season while currently holding the worst record in the Eastern Conference. On top of that, the one big-name free agent Kekalainen was able to sign (Johnny Gaudreau) hasn’t delivered as hoped, while the botched Mike Babcock hire might have sealed his fate. (feb16)

11. Despite all the current gloom and doom, the Jackets have a decent set of prospects in the fold (see the Dobber Prospects team page). The new general manager will have an opportunity to determine how these prospects fit in, and also decide which direction the team will take with what should be a high first-round pick in the 2024 draft. (feb16)

12. If you’ve been waiting on Viktor Arvidsson all season, now is the time to try to squeeze him into your lineup. Arvidsson was activated from LTIR and made his season debut on Thursday. He was held without a point in the Kings’ 2-1 win over New Jersey, but he contributed in other ways with five shots and two minor penalties, mixing it up with Jack Hughes on one of them. Arvidsson was placed on a line with Phillip Danault and Trevor Moore, a line he spent much of last season on. He finished just shy of 60 points last season, so he might provide a second-half boost to your roster. (feb16)

13. In his second NHL season, Juraj Slafkovsky is taking a big step forward. Playing on the first line and the top power play is helping Slafkovsky’s value to the point where he should be rostered in single-season leagues as well as keeper leagues. He’s one of the players featured in this week’s Frozen Tools Forensics, so I won’t cover him in detail here.

Slafkovsky’s linemate Cole Caufield is shooting the puck like crazy this season, as he has reached the 200 SOG mark already and sits in the top 10 in that category. (feb16)

14. Remember when Jordan Kyrou made the “no comment, he’s not my coach anymore” response when asked for his thoughts about Craig Berube being fired? Check out Kyrou’s splits under his two coaches (at time of writing):

Berube: 27 GP, 5 G, 12 A, 17 PTS
Bannister: 26 GP, 13 G, 12 A, 25 PTS

Almost the same number of games played and assists, but considerably more goals under Drew Bannister. Happier players might be more productive players. Robert Thomas has also been more productive under Bannister. Thomas was a point-per-game player under Berube this season but under Bannister, he has taken his game to another level. (feb16)

15. Entering Saturday, Frank Vatrano had already equaled his point total from last season (41 points) in 28 fewer games. That 41 points is already a career high for Vatrano, who seems to be having a breakout season at age 29. His career high in ice time (18:15) as well as power-play time (2:26) seems to be a major reason why. (feb16)

16. There has been no shortage of interesting storylines around the Philadelphia Flyers over the last couple of seasons, but one of them is certainly the career renaissance of Rasmus Ristolainen. He had played very well defensively over the last couple of seasons for the Flyers and that has pushed his name into trade rumours. He is injured now, though, and while no timeline has been given, the trade deadline is just three weeks away. We will pass along more information as we get it, but it’s not ideal timing.

17. In more good injury news, Vegas defenseman Shea Theodore was on the ice in a regular jersey for practice on Wednesday. It is the next step as he returns from an injury that has kept him out of the lineup since November. Coach Bruce Cassidy said in an interview after practice that next week is a realistic timeline for Theodore’s return, so it shouldn’t be much longer before fantasy owners get a star blueliner back on their rosters.

18. It’s Valentine’s Day today, and with it also being less than a month to the trade deadline, I wanted to come up with three trade matches that I would love to see come to pass.

Jacob Markstrom and Chris Tanev in New Jersey for a package including Alex Holtz:

The Devils have been searching for goaltending consistency all year, and that has been highlighted as it has never been there at the right moments to put a band-aid over the death by a thousand cuts that their skater core has seemed to be dealing with all season. Jacob Markstrom has been amazing on a bad season, and seems like the most reasonable of the big goalie names to be moved based on team need and acquisition cost. The Devils have the assets to make a deal happen, and with Dougie Hamilton on LTIR, the cap space necessary, as well as the need for a more stabilizing presence on the back end.

This kind of move would solidify Markstrom’s value for the stretch run with more wins, it would be a rising tide for the entire New Jersey team, as well as getting Alex Holtz a longer runway with bigger minutes. On top of that, it would see Dustin Wolf and Daniel Vladar with rest-of-season fantasy value based on volume alone.

The downside for some fantasy GMs is it would neuter any remaining value on the season for the current New Jersey goalies, but a perfect win-win always has to have someone losing out in the background.

Looking back at the Markstrom option for a second though, this wouldn’t be the first time in the last calendar year that these two teams linked up for a big deal either, with the Tyler Toffoli for Yegor Sharangovich swap seeming to have worked out well for both sides to date. (feb14)

[Follow the link for more…]

19. When trying to create goals, the type of play that precedes the shot is very important. A pass to a defenseman in the offensive zone is frequently less valuable than a seam pass, so finding out how a player is creating offense should be dug into a bit.

Using tracking data from AllThreeZones, let’s look at some forwards who’ve changed their passing tendencies from last season to this one. The focus will specifically be on passes to defensemen, termed ‘Low-To-High Passes’, or LTH. (feb15)

[Follow the link for Mike's full analysis…]

20. Nashville called up prospect Egor Afanasyev from the AHL. In 42 minor league games this season, Afanasyev has 21 goals and 21 assists while averaging nearly 3.5 shots per outing. In return, Philip Tomasino was sent back to the AHL despite two goals and three points in his last three games.

Getting excited about Afanasyev is natural, but expectations should be tempered. Outside of Nashville’s top line, and maybe Yakov Trenin or Colton Sissons, the second- and third-line forwards earn about 11-12 minutes a night at 5-on-5. Add maybe a couple minutes of secondary PP time and Afanasyev will be hard-pressed to get much more than 14 minutes a night unless he blows the doors off. (feb13)

21. We are nearly two-thirds of the way through the NHL season. It allows a moment to look back on how the season has gone across two good-sized samples. Here are notable improvements and declines from the first eight weeks of the season until now. For example, (at time of writing):

Yegor Sharangovich

After Jonathan Drouin – who has largely been a top-6/top PP fixture for months now – and Jake Evans – who has been one of the few healthy Montreal forwards not on the top line this season – no forward gained more ice time per game over the last couple of months than Sharangovich. He averaged 14:31 per game through the end of November and 19:06 since that point. It has been a productive stretch, too, with 25 points in 27 games.

The concerns for future production revolve around percentages. Sharangovich has registered a point on nearly 91% of Calgary’s 5-on-5 goals with him on the ice over those 27 games (Individual Points Percentage, or IPP) and that is exceptionally high. He also shot 24.6% individually in that span, too. Over the last five games alone, including three with the newly acquired Andrei Kuzmenko, he’s averaged 16:39 per night. This is a player whose 27-game stretch has seen him manage 2.3 shots per game and four total hits with heavy ice time. If he’s closer to 16 minutes a night moving forward, and isn’t shooting over 20%, production could be tough to come by. Now might be a good time to look at trading him away, and not acquiring him. (feb13)

[Follow the link for more…]

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Have a good week, folks!

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