Ramblings: Ovie and McMichael Pot Two; Hill Rising; Theodore; Kakko; Monahan & Notes the Top 2024 Draft Eligibles (Feb 21)

Alexander MacLean

2024-02-21

Nico Daws got another start, and in a game that could have affording him much more leash through to the trade deadline, but instead Alex Ovechkin (two goals, one assist, two hits, and four shots) and the Capitals turned back the clock to the early 2010s and put up a six-spot on him. If that long with Vitek Vanecek being moved to the IR doesn't prompt New Jersey to pony-up whatever asset it takes to push a big goalie trade across the line, I don't know what will.

Connor McMichael also scored the two goals for the Capitals, including this beauty:

McMichael is now up to 20 points in 52 games, and both his ice time and shot rate are slowly trending up. He's a season away from his breakout threshold, but an early jump at the beginning of next season could be in the cards dependent on which players return for the Capitals.

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Logan Stankoven was called up by the Stars… and then promptly sent back down before gametime in what I imagine was a paper transaction since the coach didn't put him in the lineup. He should make his debut soon, and as I mentioned last week, should make a real impact too. You don't lead the AHL in points and game-score by accident.

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While we didn't get a Stankoven debut, we did see Arshdeep Bains enter the lineup for the Canucks, and I appreciated the insight on his entrance here:

Seeing him flying around in his warmup lap, that is the kind of energy he is bringing to the Canucks, and it wouldn't surprise me to see him stick around for a long time as a result. His AHL numbers are also excellent this year, with a near-point-per-game pace there that should translate to a bottom-six role with the PDO-bender Canucks team.

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When looking at last night's starting goalies, it dawned on me that I had no real sense of how Adin Hill was doing this season; turns out, pretty damn well. He's leading the league in the save percentage column by a fair margin with his .930 mark entering last night, and would be receiving a lot of Vezina noise if it wasn't for his injury earlier this season. For some added context, teammate Logan Thompson is sporting a .909 save percentage, and is much closer to a .500 win-loss record than Hill's 14-4-4 record. The pair of them are still in their mid-20s, so it's easy to be a little jealous of how set Vegas is in net moving forward. Just another example that even some of the more tuned-in fantasy players on the East coast can still have a complete blind spot for certain players out West. There is a market inefficiency to be taken advantage of here.

On top of that, for those of you wondering who is going to be the Canadian Olympic starting goalie in 2026, look no further.

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The Golden Knights also got Shea Theodore back in the lineup, playing his first game in nearly three months (Ben Hutton came out of the lineup). Theo is on a 70-point pace this year, so hopefully for his fantasy managers he doesn't miss a beat with his return. Alex Pietrangelo was out with the top unit to begin last night's game though, and that is where Theodore has notched a majority of his points this year, so beware a slow start if that deployment is maintained.

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Sean Monahan wasn't a Jet when they last played Ryan Hartman and the Wild, but he helped run up the score against them this time around, recording his fifth goal as a Jet – all of them having come in the past three games. It bodes well for him and the Jets that the comfort level really seems to be growing for him.

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Today's schedule sees 10 teams play, with six of them being bottom-eight teams in the standings at the moment. I'm not sure what to make of this from a fantasy standpoint, but I think the bottom line is that there could be some more high-scoring games today. Perhaps more notable for those with DFS inclinations.

It might also be a chance for Toronto and Philadelphia to get their backups in a game against a weak team from the opposite conference.

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Sticking with Toronto, Morgan Rielly had his suspension upheld by the commissioner, which means the last game that he misses will be tonight against the Coyotes. In the first game without Rielly, Jake McCabe looked like he was soaking up all the extra time, but then for the last three games Timothy Liljegren has been manning the top power play, and has five points in those three games – two of them on the power play. He has also seen an overall increase in minutes. While it is unlikely to stay this high upon Rielly's return, this could be a stepping stone to a slightly larger offensive role the rest of the way.

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Scott Perunovich had 10 points in 14 games form mid-December to the end of January, but has missed all of February with an undisclosed injury. He has just been placed on IR (likely retroactively), in order for the Blues to activate Samuel Bolduc (Justin Faulk was also shifted to LTIR). It's so tough to keep faith in Perunovich with all these injuries, but at some point he is going to stick. It may not be every year, but the upside is there for more 60-point-pace stretches. 

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Kaapo Kakko scored the eventual game winner yesterday against the Stars, bringing his point-streak to five games. Over the last stretch he has also been shooting more, putting at least two shots on net in each of his last five games played indoors. His ice time is still hovering around a third-line mark, but hopefully this latest production gives him an eventual ice time boost which helps it become an extended scoring run. It would mean a lot for the Rangers to get Kakko back on track.

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The DobberProspects crew had their draft rankings published this week, and it's always something I stop whatever I'm doing in order to read.

I wanted to give some of my thoughts on this crew, even though I am more of a scouting report-connoisseur than a scout myself. For fantasy purposes, I'll run through how I see the tiers breaking down.

Macklin Celebrini:

Similar to other solid top-picks before him, Celebrini looks to be a player like Steven Stamkos, Nathan MacKinnon, or Rasmus Dahlin, that can jump into an NHL lineup, not look out of place, and still be fantasy relevant even if he isn't blowing the doors off in his first season. Not too much to overthink here with the first pick.

Ivan Demidov:

Even if the play style isn't extremely comparable, Demidov's nationality, high upside, and timeline will keep the Michkov comparisons coming until they have both become their own players at the NHL level. As a result of contracts signed to stay in Russia for the next number of years, it could be another three or four seasons until we see them both in the NHL full time. That has its advantages if it fits your competitive window timeline, as well as if it can work around games played limits for fantasy minor-league eligibility. Weigh that against the next group likely starting to make an impact in two years, though having a lower ceiling than Demidov.

Berkly Catton, Konsta Helenius, Cayden Lindstrom:

This trio of centres all have pro skills in their game already, and shouldn't be far away from the NHL after draft day. They are likely the next best fantasy assets, and the end of the top-tier of forwards. Helenius might have the lower ceiling than the other two, but he is already showing well in pro hockey across the pond. At the top of the draft I generally like to swing on upside, so right now they are currently ranked Lindstrom, Catton, and then Helenius – though I imagine that will change by draft day.  

Zeev Buium, Zayne Parekh:

The first two defencemen on the board could be grouped in with the next three as well, and they aren't necessarily behind that above group of three forwards, but I digress, these two are likely the cream of the fantasy from for the 2024 blueliners. Both are putting up record numbers in their respective leagues, and have the excellent vision and hockey sense that we are seeing in all of these young puck-moving defencemen that are taking over the game. It's near-impossible to trade for a Quinn Hughes, Adam Fox, or Miro Heiskanen type in the NHL, and in most fantasy leagues, so if you want one, this is often the place to reach and get one.

Sam Dickinson, Artyom Levshunov, Anton Silayev (plus and HM to Carter Yakemchuk):

Luckily, if you miss out on Buium and Parekh, there are more options worthy of a top-10 selection, though likely not a top-five pick. I'm not as sold on Silayev as some others, and especially with the Russian factor I think he will slide in fantasy drafts despite his size making him likely to go early in the NHL draft. Dickinson is also likely to end up a more of a two-way player than a top-scorer/power play specialist, but he still has a high offensive floor as a top-pairing player. Levshunov (and also Yakemchuk to a slightly lesser extent) have a hgher offensive upside, but some more questions about their speed and how they process the game, perhaps topping out as a more offensively-included second-pairing player. That's still valuable, and likely comparatively so to the more defensively responsible top-pairing guys.

Cole Eiserman:

This man is somewhat of an enigma. His goal scoring numbers tell you that he will put the puck in the net at any level, and with any linemates, but it does seem like public scouts have much less faith in him transitioning to the next level than the numbers would indicate. It's a lot more difficult nowadays in a speed and skill game to stand in one spot on the ice and just fire away. Alex Ovechkin and Nikita Kucherov have gotten away with it because it's not the only weapon in their arsenal. Patrik Laine has had issues with it, in part because he hasn't been able to refine his other skills. At this point, Eiserman could end up anywhere on the spectrum from Nail Yakupov to Cole Caufield and it wouldn't surprise me.

The next grouping of Igor Chernyshov, Michael Brandsegg-Nygard, Liam Greentree, Nikita Artamanov, Trevor Connelly, Tij Iginla, and maybe one or two later risers like Andre Basha, make up what is probably the last real tier of fantasy-relevant players at this point. Obviously aa couple of those names won't pan out, and a couple will break out later, but these are the best bets at this point in time. All of these players have some warts, but have top-six upside with some fairly realistic potential that they can make it happen with most any NHL team that they are eventually drafted to. Sometimes, if you can't decide on a player, picking the player whose draft stock won't take a plunge helps, as it keeps the trade value higher for longer. Typically the top scorers in the CHL take another step in their D+1 seasons, regardless of how well they eventually adapt to the pro level, so I end up leaning a little more to those types than others.

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Tell me this goal by Quinton Byfield doesn’t make you think of that Rick Nash goal against the Coyotes:

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See you next Wednesday. In the meantime, you can find me on Twitter/X here, or BlueSky here if you have any fantasy hockey questions or comments.  

One Comment

  1. dareo 2024-02-21 at 10:08

    Zeev, not Shai

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