Ramblings: Updates on Neiderreiter, Hall, and Levi; Devils/Rangers Rumble; Seasons from Guhle, Kurashev, Borgen, and More – April 4

Michael Clifford

2024-04-04

Winnipeg coach Rick Bowness said that winger Nino Niederreiter will be out a week after suffering a cut to his leg. It doesn't appear it will affect his playoff status at any point, which is important for the team.

There was some other important news from Winnipeg practice as Tyler Toffoli was back after missing their game on Monday due to an illness. Where he was slotted during practice was a bit of a surprise:

Cole Perfetti had a three-point game in his return to the second line on Monday, and with the Jets' scoring problems right now, it looks like that's where he'll stay.

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Something for Darcy Kuemper fantasy owners to keep an eye on:

Hopefully it's nothing, and it seems that way right now, but things change quickly.

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In an interesting bit of news, Taylor Hall was on the ice before practice for Chicago:

Hall has already been announced out for the season but this is a good indicator he should have something close to a normal offseason of training this summer.

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Buffalo sent goalie Devon Levi back to the AHL. The Sabres have just six games left this season, and none are a back-to-back situation. As long as Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen stays healthy, he should have the net the rest of the way.

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Columbus recalled defenceman David Jiricek, and it looks like he’ll be with the team the rest of the season.

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A pair of assists from Nikita Kucherov pushed him to 129 points, breaking his own franchise single season record of 128, and pushed Tampa Bay to a 4-1 win over Toronto. Kucherov already has a career-high 42 goals and needs one more assist for a career-high in that regard. He also had two shots, a block, and a couple of hits last night for a very good multi-cat effort.

Nick Paul, Brayden Point, Steven Stamkos, and Victor Hedman all scored for the Lightning. That makes 18 goals in 20 games for Point, who seems to be finding his groove over the final months of the season.

Auston Matthews scored a power play goal, his 63rd total tally this season as his quest for 70 continues.

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It was a wild game at Madison Square Garden as New Jersey was visiting New York. There was a line brawl to start the game and with the NHL's new 'second altercation' rules, everyone that fought after the initial fight was ejected. That meant five minutes and a game for Chris Tierney, Kurtis MacDermid, John Marino, Kevin Bahl, Matt Rempe, Barclay Goodrow, Jacob Trouba, and K'Andre Miller just two seconds into the contest. Both teams played with four defencemen for 59:58.

Then there was the game itself where the Rangers got out to a 2-0 lead after the first period before the Devils reeled off three straight goals in the second period to take a lead into the final frame. Goals from Kaapo Kakko and Chris Kreider (PP) gave the Rangers the 4-3 edge in the third period, and the eventual two points.

Alexis Lafrenière had a goal and an assist in the first period, pushing him to 40 points at 5-on-5 this season. That is more than Sebastian Aho and Sam Reinhart, and one fewer than Jason Robertson. The season from Artemi Panarin (who had a goal and an assist of his own) is helping Laf really find his production, but the young winger has also elevated his own game when the team needed him to do so. Next stop: power play minutes.

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Ondrej Palat, Nico Hischier, and Brendan Smith scored for the Devils. Jesper Bratt had a pair of helpers to push him past the 50-assist mark for the first time in his career.

Adam Fox had two assists, three shots, and three blocks. That makes 31 points for Fox in his last 25 games, and he's two points shy of his third straight 70-point campaign. He just turned 26 years old in February.  

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Every season, there are three kinds of fantasy breakouts:  

  1. Breakouts predicted. (Matt Boldy in 2022-23)
  2. Breakouts missed but that made sense in hindsight. (Vince Dunn in 2022-23)
  3. Breakouts that come out of nowhere. (Andrei Kuzmenko in 2022-23)

For today, we will concern ourselves with that third group. Let's look at some breakout fantasy players from the 2023-24 season that few people saw coming (at least to my knowledge), what happened, and whether we can learn anything from it. We will exclude established players that have had big years like Sam Reinhart, Filip Forsberg, and Quinn Hughes and focus more on first-time breakouts.

Nils Höglander

Though he has just 34 total points, Höglander scored his 23rd goal of the season on Tuesday night, and all 23 of those goals have come at 5-on-5. Going into Wednesday night's game, he led the Canucks in goals at that strength by five, he was tied with JJ Peterka for ninth in the league, and his per-minute goal-scoring rate was third behind only Zach Hyman and Auston Matthews. He hasn't shot much, even when adjusting for his low ice time totals, but he does have 45 penalty minutes and 87 hits. On a per-minute basis, both his PIM and hit rates were in the 77th percentile among regular forwards. He has only had relevance in deeper banger fantasy leagues, but he has had relevance.

What stands out clearly is that this is the third year in a row that a Canucks forward has posted a career year skating next to Elias Pettersson; last year it was Kuzmenko and two years ago it was Conor Garland. Remember this past September when people were excited about Connor Brown skating on a line with Connor McDavid? Maybe it's time we put Pettersson's potential wingers in the same category.

Yegor Sharangovich

He had a 24-goal season in 2021-22, but after a down 2022-23 season and a trade to the Calgary Flames, it looked as if Sharangovich may have already reached his peak. Well, he's one goal short of a 30-goal campaign, has a reasonable chance of setting a career-high in shots (he's at 163 and he needs 169), and has an outside chance at a 60-point season (he needs six points in the final eight games). He is tied for first among Flames forwards with 29 goals and is second in points with 54. The first-year Flame even has 14 power play points, third on the team and just two behind Nazem Kadri. All in all, not a bad season for points-only formats.

Shooting 18.6% at even strength, a top-20 mark in the league among regular forwards, after averaging 12.1% in his three New Jersey seasons is clearly a big reason for the goal jump. It is worth pointing out that even if he shot 12.1% at even strength, he would still have 22 goals. The consistent power play time is a new wrinkle to his profile, and it has helped him produce reasonable fantasy value in points-only formats. It is also worth noting he's earned 56.5% of the team's power play time since Elias Lindholm was traded compared to 40.7% up to that point. Whatever shooting percentage drop he's in for next season could be mitigated by more ice time and a more prominent power play role from Day 1.  

Philipp Kurashev

When looking for which players would benefit from Connor Bedard being drafted by Chicago, the first name that popped up on my list was Taylor Hall; considering his 10 games played, that didn't come to fruition.

An assist in Tuesday night's loss pushed Kurashev to the 50-point mark for the first time in his career, and he's already exceeded his goal (15) and point (46) totals from the prior two seasons combined. Considering Kurashev has skated over two-thirds of his total ice time with Bedard, and that includes 14 games that Bedard missed with injury, the 24-year-old winger has spent a lot of time next to the budding superstar. That he's easily set career highs, including 17 power play points, isn't a huge surprise.

What is a surprise is that Kurashev has consistently skated so much next to Bedard. It is also notable for next season because though the expectation is Hall will be healthy, Kurashev could easily stay on the top line and top power play unit. Unless Lukas Reichel takes a big step forward in 2024-25, Chicago doesn't have much in the pipeline for prospect wingers unless they move Frank Nazar or Oliver Moore to the wing, and there's no guarantee either suit up for the Blackhawks in 2024-25 anyway. The next season could be even better for Kurashev, though the peripherals are still lacking for multi-cat formats.

Kaiden Guhle

The point production isn't huge for Guhle with 22 in 69 games, but he does have 178 blocks, 116 hits, and 56 penalty minutes. His 82-game pace for this season is seven goals, 26 points, 211 blocks, 138 hits, and 67 PIMs. On a per-game basis, these are the defencemen since the 2007 season to post similar per-game rates to Guhle among those in their age-23 season or younger:

He is not the next Victor Hedman, but not many of us thought that Josh Morrissey would reach the highs that he has. Guhle seems unlikely to reach that level, too, but he has put up an excellent multi-cat season and the team around him is improving. The big concern is whether the eventual additions of Lane Hutson and David Reinbacher cut into his role and make Guhle a perennial second-pair option rather than a top-pair option. Regardless, a good start to his fantasy career when including the 44 games from the year prior.

Will Borgen

We won't go long here, but a season after Vince Dunn's breakout, it seems it's Will Borgen's turn? He has averaged just 17:37 per game this season but has career highs in assists (22), points (24), shots (87), blocks (103), and PIMs (63). He is unlikely to surpass the 203 hits he had a season ago but could get to 190 (give or take a few), and that's still excellent. Borgen has one year until he's a free agent, but with Justin Schultz likely hitting free agency this summer, Borgen could see an ice-time jump in 2024-25, and even 19-20 minutes would be a huge deal in multi-cat formats.

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