Every Sunday, we share 21 Fantasy Rambles from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s 'Daily Ramblings'.

Writers/Editors: Ian Gooding, Michael Clifford, Alexander MacLean, Brennan Des and Dobber

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1. Every season, there are three kinds of fantasy breakouts:  

1. Breakouts predicted. (Matt Boldy in 2022-23)
2. Breakouts missed but that made sense in hindsight. (Vince Dunn in 2022-23)
3. Breakouts that come out of nowhere. (Andrei Kuzmenko in 2022-23)

For today, we will concern ourselves with that third group. Let’s look at some breakout fantasy players from the 2023-24 season that few people saw coming (at least to my knowledge), what happened, and whether we can learn anything from it. We will exclude established players that have had big years like Sam Reinhart, Filip Forsberg, and Quinn Hughes and focus more on first-time breakouts. For example, at time of writing::

Nils Höglander

Though he has just 34 total points, Höglander scored his 23^rd goal of the season on Tuesday night, and all 23 of those goals have come at 5-on-5. Going into Wednesday night’s game, he led the Canucks in goals at that strength by five, he was tied with JJ Peterka for ninth in the league, and his per-minute goal-scoring rate was third behind only Zach Hyman and Auston Matthews. He hasn’t shot much, even when adjusting for his low ice time totals, but he does have 45 penalty minutes and 87 hits. On a per-minute basis, both his PIM and hit rates were in the 77^th percentile among regular forwards. He has only had relevance in deeper banger fantasy leagues, but he has had relevance.

What stands out clearly is that this is the third year in a row that a Canucks forward has posted a career year skating next to Elias Pettersson; last year it was Kuzmenko and two years ago it was Conor Garland. Remember this past September when people were excited about Connor Brown skating on a line with Connor McDavid? Maybe it’s time we put Pettersson’s potential wingers in the same category. (apr4)

2. Yegor Sharangovich.

He had a 24-goal season in 2021-22, but after a down 2022-23 season and a trade to the Calgary Flames, it looked as if Sharangovich may have already reached his peak. Well, he’s one goal short of a 30-goal campaign, has a reasonable chance of setting a career-high in shots (he’s at 163 and he needs 169), and has an outside chance at a 60-point season (he needs six points in the final eight games). He is tied for first among Flames forwards with 29 goals and is second in points with 54. The first-year Flame even has 14 power play points, third on the team and just two behind Nazem Kadri. All in all, not a bad season for points-only formats.

Shooting 18.6% at even strength, a top-20 mark in the league among regular forwards, after averaging 12.1% in his three New Jersey seasons is clearly a big reason for the goal jump. It is worth pointing out that even if he shot 12.1% at even strength, he would still have 22 goals. The consistent power play time is a new wrinkle to his profile, and it has helped him produce reasonable fantasy value in points-only formats. It is also worth noting he’s earned 56.5% of the team’s power play time since Elias Lindholm was traded compared to 40.7% up to that point. Whatever shooting percentage drop he’s in for next season could be mitigated by more ice time and a more prominent power play role from Day 1. (apr4)

[Follow the link for more…]

3. You should probably wait to fill out your playoff bracket or playoff pool, particularly for the Eastern Conference. With the way the Flyers, Red Wings, Capitals, Islanders, or Penguins have played at times this season, how confident are you that one of them can advance past the first round? There appears to be a clear separation between the top six East teams points-wise and this pack of mushy middle teams (which could also include the Sabres and Devils, who appear to be out of time). That being said, the Stanley Cup Playoffs have had their share of Cinderella teams through the years, so who knows. (apr5)

4. Jake Guentzel‘s run of success with the Hurricanes continued on Friday. Guentzel scored twice and added an assist, giving him eight points over his last four games and 20 points in 13 games with Carolina. Guentzel seems like a great fit on the top line with Sebastian Aho, but it remains to be seen whether he will re-sign with the Hurricanes in the offseason. Guentzel might be the grand prize of this season’s UFA class just as he was for the trade deadline, although an argument could also be made for Sam Reinhart or even Steven Stamkos. (apr6)

5. The Avalanche lost in more ways than one on Friday. Mikko Rantanen left the game after taking a hard hit from Mattias Ekholm. Rantanen is 6-4 and weighs 215 pounds, but he was bodychecked with enough force that he was noticeably woozy after the hit. After the game, coach Jared Bednar said that Rantanen would be “under evaluation for a while.” In all likelihood, Rantanen will miss Sunday’s game against Dallas and could even be held out for the rest of the regular season. That would be a significant blow for fantasy teams with title aspirations, as Rantanen has delivered on his first-round pick status in many leagues by reaching 40 goals and 100 points for the second consecutive season. (apr6)

6. In case you missed it, Shane Wright has been recalled by the Kraken. He put on a show on Friday, scoring two goals while adding an assist with five shots in Seattle’s 3-1 win over Anaheim. Dave Hakstol tends to mix up his lines quite a bit, but Wright seems to have found a home on a line with Jordan Eberle and Jaden Schwartz. Wright and the Kraken don’t play again until next week, but he has the opportunity to score more with some juicy home matchups against Arizona and San Jose before they finish the season on a four-game road trip. If you’ve been holding on to Wright in your keeper league, this might be a good time to activate him. (apr6)

7. If you’ve been streaming goalies, hopefully you’ve landed on Alex Nedeljkovic. He stopped 30 of 31 shots he faced, giving him five wins and five quality starts over his last six games. Over that span (since March 26), Nedeljkovic has a 1.97 GAA and .934 SV%. Ned even started both games of a back-to-back on Monday and Tuesday. The Penguins are riding the hot hand in net and so should you (17% Yahoo/26% Fantrax). (apr5)

8. Aaron Ekblad is expected to miss the rest of the regular season, although Paul Maurice said he is quite confident that Ekblad will be ready for Game 1 of the playoffs. The Panthers have already clinched a playoff spot, so it’s all about ensuring that Ekblad is healthy when they start. (apr5)

9. I don’t think Sam Reinhart deserves $10 million per season on the open market if you consider his overall career production, but the recency effect combined with benefitting from a near-25.0 SH% means that he might just cash in with that. (apr5)

10. Jonathan Drouin has made a case as a comeback player of the year, as his 51 points is just two shy of his career high of 53 (set two different times). Although he may never reach the potential he had as a third overall pick in 2013, the now 29-year-old Drouin has been a serviceable fantasy option this season. More recently, Drouin has posted multiple points in five of his last eight games. As hoped, he has also reconnected with former junior teammate Nathan MacKinnon as a linemate for much of the season. (apr5)

11. Who had Gustav Nyquist as a potential sleeper this season after signing with the Predators? Certainly not me. He’s receiving top-line and power-play minutes he likely wouldn’t receive elsewhere and making good on the opportunity. I’d bet the under on him reaching 70 points again next season, as I don’t like the fact that he averages less than two shots per game. Yet we shouldn’t be fading Nyquist yet, even though he is now 34 years old. (apr5)

12. There have been several NCAA free agent signings this week. Collin Graf of the Quinnipiac Bobcats, who might be the most notable undrafted NCAA player, has signed a three-year contract with San Jose with a cap hit of $941,667 per season. Graf was part of the Quinnipiac lineup that won the 2022-23 NCAA national championship, scoring at well over a point per game during his two seasons there (108 points in 75 games). He was also a Hobey Baker Top 10 finalist both seasons.

With the Sharks in complete rebuild mode, Graf appears ready to join their lineup before the end of the season and could even assume an important role. A reason that he wasn’t drafted could be his size. Although he’s now 6-1 and 195 pounds at 21 years of age, Graf was 5-8 and 145 pounds when he was 17 years old. The Sharks don’t really have any single-season fantasy-relevant players beyond Mikael Granlund and Fabian Zetterlund at the moment, so Graf could be worth keeping an eye on immediately. (apr5)

13. You can find writeups of the most prominent U.S. College Free Agents in the Midseason Guide. These free agents by and large don’t make a major impact in fantasy leagues, but there are a few that could eventually earn regular NHL spots. They’re a roll of the dice for teams looking to bolster their prospect base, generally as late bloomers that were overlooked when they were draft-eligible. (apr5)

14. Interesting bits of news: Taylor Hall was on the ice before practice for Chicago this week. Hall has already been announced out for the season but this is a good indicator he should have something close to a normal offseason of training this summer.

Buffalo sent goalie Devon Levi back to the AHL. The Sabres have just six games left this season, and none are a back-to-back situation. As long as Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen stays healthy, he should have the net the rest of the way.

Columbus recalled defenceman David Jiricek, and it looks like he'll be with the team the rest of the season. (apr4)

15. I know Brennan mentioned Jamie Benn yesterday, but I also wanted to touch on him as someone that has been a huge piece of helping one of my teams into the fantasy finals this week, with his scoring revival of seven goals across a six-game scoring streak from mid- to late-March. 

Last year’s 76-point-pace is something he won’t repeat again, as the underlying numbers were completely unsustainable, but since Benn began playing with Logan Stankoven and Wyatt Johnston, he has put up 20 points in his last 14 games, showing that there is still a lot left in the tank despite him turning 35 this summer.

If he sticks with those two young wingers next year, then another 60-point pace is certainly realistic, though if you can sell him high this summer it might be best to get out one year early than one year late. (apr3)

16. Early in the week, Connor Bedard followed up his third nomination as Rookie of the Month three points behind a point-per-game pace. Connor McDavid for example scored 48 points in his 45-games of his rookie season, and then jumped up to 100 points in his 82-game sophomore season. It might be a bit much to expect 100 points from Bedard next year with his supporting cast, but 90 seems like a reasonable line to draw depending on how the support staff in Chicago is overhauled in the summer. (apr3)

17. Tomas Hertl looks to be making progress towards a return, and with Mark Stone on LTIR there should be room to activate him before the end of the regular season, whenever he is healthy.

Looking at the current state of the Vegas lines, Hertl should slot in somewhere in the middle-six, which would kick out one of Michael Amadio or Paul Cotter, and potentially from the lineup altogether. It would be a boon to whichever of William Karlsson or Chandler Stephenson gets him as their linemate, and maybe more likely the latter as the second line (Karlsson’s) has been playing well lately so there’s less reason to break it up.

If you want to see the fantasy take from the time of the trade, you can find it here. (apr3)

18. Connor McDavid is the top fantasy player in the league right now, there’s no denying that. However, his goal drop does leave us with an interesting question for next year, whether McDavid’s record 100-assist season and record drop in goals is something that is a sign of what’s to come, or whether either or both will return to previous norms.

McDavid’s goal rate is currently the lowest it has been since his sophomore season, and his shooting percentage is also the lowest it has been since that season. The shot rate has also receded a bit, back to the low-threes, where he hovered for a few years before kicking in up a notch each of the last couple seasons.

Otherwise, there aren’t any red flags in the underlying metrics. McDavid’s teammates have scored on a slightly higher percentage of shots this year than the previous two, and his linemates have been extremely consistent from last year to present day. Last year’s record-breaking power play hasn’t clicked at quite the same rate this year, which has accounted for some of it.

On another aside, McDavid’s hit numbers of 1.5 per game are also excellent, and if he can keep up anywhere near that level, will entrench him even further as the top fantasy asset. (apr3)

19. Big Names to Drop in One-Year Leagues

If this is a do-or-die week in a single-season fantasy league, you may be forced to drop big-name players to optimize your schedule. Below are a few household names to consider swapping for players on hot streaks. (At time of writing:)

Charlie McAvoy – The Bruins’ defenseman has just four points in his last 18 games. Boston’s up against three strong defensive teams this week in Nashville, Carolina, and Florida. I know McAvoy’s a big-name player who’s been strong for most of the season but given his current form and the strength of his opponents, another defenseman may be able to provide more offense this week. (apr1)

[Follow the link for more…]

20. March Trends

With today marking the start of a new month, I thought I’d take a look back at the one that just passed, highlighting a few interesting stats from March. (At time of writing:)

Timo Meier led the league in goal scoring this past month, racking up 13 goals in 15 games. He’d been bogged down by injuries and unfavourable deployment between December and February. After Tyler Toffoli was traded to Winnipeg, doors opened up and Meier ran through all of them. He’s back in a consistent top-line, top-power play role, producing at the elite level we knew he was capable of. (apr1)

[Follow the link for more…]

21. Tracking data from AllThreeZones shows that carried entries per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 (or carries/60) has a stronger correlation to team goals-for per 60 minutes this season than the percentage of entry attempts that are carried, passing for zone entries, or just total entries per 60 minutes. We will review all this in the offseason when we have larger, full-year samples, but let’s look at some improvements from the 2022-23 season to try and get a read on what’s happened in 2023-24, and what could happen in 2024-25.

Again, the data is from AllThreeZones and all of this is at 5-on-5. Because we’re looking at season-over-season change, there won’t be rookies or players with substantial injury issues in either year. We are also going to limit it to players with at least 200 tracked minutes in either campaign.

Positive Changes

Our sample has 11 forwards who’ve added at least 4.0 carries/60 to their profile from 2022-23. (apr2)

[Follow the link for the full breakdown…]

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Yes, we’re thinking about the real playoffs. So it’s a good time to mention that Dobber’s 2024 Interactive Playoff Draft List can now be purchased. You can make your own picks for series winners, or go with Dobber’s picks if you’re not sure. Purchase yours here. Keep in mind that the actual spreadsheet will be available for use in early April.

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Have a good week, folks!

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