Ramblings: Skinner & Special Teams Sink the Stars; Power-Play Production Boosts for O’Reilly, Granlund, Jarvis, Vatrano & Drouin (June 3)

Brennan Des

2024-06-03

Stuart Skinner and the Oilers' power play carried the team to a series-clinching 2-1 victory over Dallas on Sunday. Connor McDavid and Evan Bouchard factored in on both of Edmonton's goals while Zach Hyman and Leon Draisaitl posted a point apiece. I guess you could say Edmonton's stars outplayed the Dallas Stars – although that seems unfair given the final shot total, but more on that later. If you look at the playoff scoring race right now, the first four spots are occupied by Oilers – McDavid, Draisaitl, Bouchard, and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (tied with Vincent Trocheck). This team was often criticized for being too top-heavy but that top has proven too heavy for three opponents so far. After beating the Kings, Canucks and Stars, Florida is the final team standing between Edmonton and the Stanley Cup. The first game of that final showdown is scheduled roughly a week from now, on Saturday June 8th. With so much time in between games, I'll avoid going into too much detail today as I'm sure my fellow writers will want to break down the Dallas-Edmonton series and set up the Final over the next few days. 

It was a cruel fate for the Stars as they dominated the game and outshot Edmonton 35-10 but just couldn't beat Skinner more than once. Skinner had a rough start to these playoffs, allowing three or more goals in six of his first eight starts. He's turned things around massively since then, allowing two or fewer in seven of his last eight outings. Intuitively, Florida has the edge in net for the Stanley Cup Final as Sergei Bobrovsky is regarded as a better goalie than Stuart Skinner. That idea is reinforced by numbers from this past regular season and the first three rounds of these playoffs. However, if you shift your focus to present form, both netminders have similar numbers over the past couple of weeks. Since May 15th, Bobrovsky holds a .925 SV% and 1.77 GAA while Skinner sports a .920 SV% and 1.81 GAA. Still a gap, but maybe not as massive as you would initially think. 

The loss seemed especially emotional for Joe Pavelski as it may have been his last game in the NHL. The 39-year-old forward is a free agent now but should attract some interest considering he just scored at a 67-point pace this past regular season. I imagine the opportunity will be there, it's just a matter of whether he wants to continue his career. It's unfortunate that the offense dried up when it mattered most as he posted just four points over 19 postseason outings. 

Although Edmonton's power-play was shining on Sunday, it was the team's penalty kill that sparkled during the series and throughout these playoffs. The Oilers killed all 14 penalties they took in the Western Conference Final and are 46 for 49 on the PK so far this postseason. It's not like Dallas' power play was bad either. The Stars ranked 6th in the league with a 24% success rate during the regular season and entered the series clicking at 29% in the playoffs. Edmonton's neutralization of that threat is a big reason why their four wins away from Canada's first Stanley Cup in over 30 years. I imagine they'll find similar success against a Florida power play that's been slightly worse than Dallas' during the regular season and playoffs. 

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In fantasy hockey, when a player's production improves from one year to the next we turn to the 25th letter of the alphabet. Y. Why were they more productive? Was it better linemates? More ice time? More offensively focused deployment? Luck? Determining the factors behind improved production can help us decide whether that higher level of offense is repeatable or if it's an anomaly. In today's Ramblings, I thought I'd hone in on one common explanation for improved individual offense: more power-play opportunity. Here are a few players who produced more this past regular season thanks to more power-play time:

Ryan O'Reilly

O'Reilly spent the 22-23 campaign in St. Louis and Toronto, seeing a 38% share of power-play time between the two teams. It was the only year out of the last 13 that he's seen a minority share of PP time. Unsurprisingly, it coincided with his lowest power-play point total and point per-game pace of the last 13 years. O'Reilly's jump from a 46-point pace last year to a 69-point pace this past regular season is thanks in large part to a prominent power-play role. He saw 63% of Nashville's total time on the man advantage and racked up a career-high 28 power-play points. He should maintain a similar power-play role next year, enabling him to flirt with a 60-point pace again. 

Mikael Granlund

Granlund's ascension from a 43-point pace to a 71-point pace can be explained by the expanded role he enjoyed on a Sharks' team devoid of talent. He averaged 18 minutes a night between Nashville and Pittsburgh last year but jumped up to 21 per game this past regular season. That increased role extended to the man advantage as his share of power-play time jumped from 49% to 72%. His power-play production doubled as he went from 0.15 PPP/game to 0.33. 

Next season marks the final year of Granlund's current contract. Considering he's 32 years old and San Jose is rebuilding and getting younger, it's fair to assume he'll be dealt before the trade deadline. Such a move may be troublesome for Granlund's fantasy value as he's unlikely to see such a high volume of action wherever he lands. A role reduction could lead to lower point totals unless he sees an offsetting upgrade in linemate quality. 

Seth Jarvis

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The 22-year-old forward's third season in the NHL ended up being his best so far. After averaging just over 16 minutes of ice time last season, he soared up to nearly 19 this year. The extra opportunity helped him jump from a 39-point pace to a 68-point pace. That alone would have been an impressive accomplishment but it becomes ludicrous when you realize he played most of the season with a torn labrum and rotator cuff in his shoulder. 

After playing a secondary role with the man advantage in years one and two, Jarvis jumped into a primary gig this season, eating minutes that once belonged to Martin Necas. After tallying just five points with the man advantage last year, Jarvis racked up 20 this year. Although both Jarvis and Necas enter this summer as restricted free agents, Necas' name has come up more often in trade rumors, suggesting that Jarvis is less expendable among the two right now. That means Jarvis should continue seeing a high volume of opportunity beside high quality players in Carolina next year, leading to another year of high-level production. 

Frank Vatrano

Numerous factors contributed to Vatrano's career-best 37-goal/60-point showing this past year, but power-play opportunity was certainly one of them. Last year, he saw 36% of Anaheim's total time with the man advantage and he tallied just nine power-play points. This year, he was up at 52% and racked up 20 PPPs. While he deserves to be recognized for an impressive performance, I wouldn't target him in fantasy formats next season. Anaheim has an abundance of young talent with skill sets made for the power play – guys like Trevor Zegras, Mason McTavish, Leo Carlsson, Cutter Gauthier and Troy Terry. I think that Vatrano – who's 30 years old and a UFA after next season – will lose some opportunity to high-pedigree candidates next year.

Jonathan Drouin

Drouin's tumultuous tenure in Montreal is well-documented, but I'll remind you that it ended with a whimper. He posted a 41-point pace during his final season with the Habs, skating roughly 15 minutes per game and seeing 46% of the Canadiens' time with the man advantage. This year, his first in Colorado, he was able to rejuvenate his career in a higher profile role beside QMJHL teammate Nathan MacKinnon. Drouin's overall ice time jumped three minutes in Colorado but he also enjoyed a much greater role with the man advantage, seeing 67% of the team's total power-play time. That helped him jump from nine PPPs last year in Montreal to 19 during this past regular season with the Avalanche. He needs a new contract for next season, but if he stays in Colorado, I imagine his role will be similar to next year. That being said, a healthy Gabriel Landeskog could push Drouin down the depth chart, so proceed with caution.

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Thanks for reading! If you ever have any fantasy hockey questions, follow me on Twitter @BrennanDeSouza and shoot me a message!

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