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In today's Ramblings, I'll explain why I'm avoiding certain players in fantasy drafts for the upcoming campaign. While I don't necessarily think the following players are doomed this year, I think their perceived values are greater than their actual values. This makes it likely that you'll have to overpay to acquire such players during upcoming drafts. In fantasy hockey, where maximizing value is of the utmost importance, you just can't afford to overpay.

I decided to do a deep dive on two big names, accompanied by some quick thoughts on a few others. Without further ado, here's who I'm avoiding, and why I'm avoiding them.

Jake Guentzel

Okay, I know this might be a controversial take, but hear me out.

Yes, Jake Guentzel is an elite player in his prime, and yes, he'll be playing alongside elite offensive stars in Tampa Bay. However, it's not like he was playing in the slums before. Guentzel has spent most of his career so far playing beside Sidney Crosby in Pittsburgh. Sure, you can argue that given the six-year age gap between Crosby and Lightning star Nikita Kucherov, the latter might be more effective today. However, I have a hard time believing that Guentzel's new situation is a massive upgrade – especially because he and Crosby had years to establish a high-level of chemistry. We're going from a partnership with proven results, to one that seems good on paper, but might need time to blossom. That's one of the prime reasons I'd steer clear of Guentzel in fantasy drafts for one-year leagues. Regardless of the talent involved here, players often need time to integrate into new teams. That integration period gives them less time to have an impact for your fantasy roster.

On a related note, sometimes combinations that seem great in theory don't have the intended results. Think of the hype surrounding Erik Karlsson's move to Pittsburgh last summer. He seemed destined to thrive while sharing the ice with Crosby, Guentzel and Evgeni Malkin. However, after putting up 101 points the season before, Karlsson managed just 56 last year. I remember feeling similar excitement when Taylor Hall joined Jack Eichel in Buffalo back in 2020, or when Johnny Gaudreau and Patrik Laine linked up in Columbus back in 2022-23, but neither of those unions worked out well either.

You might argue that Guentzel is a better player than anyone previously listed, and that he's going to a better team than any of the others previously listed. I agree with you, but then I think about players that are highly regarded today, who didn't find instant success when they first joined their new team. Think of Dougie Hamilton putting up a 40-point pace in year one with New Jersey before putting up 74 in year two, or maybe Zach Hyman pacing for 58 in his first year with Edmonton before tallying 86 the next season.

Now, you might discount those examples because neither Hyman nor Hamilton started out in prominent power-play roles when they first joined their new team, but Guentzel is essentially guaranteed a spot on Tampa's lethal top unit. That's a fair take, but I'd use Erik Karlsson again here to temper expectations. Pittsburgh had a solid power-play (21.7%) with plenty of offensive talent and seemed destined to improve after adding one of the league's best defensemen. To our shock, the Penguins' power-play success rate dropped to 15.3% this past season with Karlsson in the mix. Sometimes having too many high-level cooks in the kitchen can be a bad thing – especially when they haven't had much time to get familiar with one another. Tampa's power play has been excellent for years, and it's entirely possible that they continue to thrive with Guentzel in the fold. However, there's a very real scenario where it takes Guentzel some time to settle in with his new team, which adds a blemish to his fantasy outlook. The thing is, many managers aren't seeing that blemish because they're so excited by Guentzel's potential in Tampa. I admit his ceiling is exciting – especially because he's never benefitted from a high-level of power-play production and there's now potential for that with the Lightning. However, I think we need to ground our projections in the most realistic scenarios, not the most optimistic ones.

When Guentzel inevitably leads the league in scoring next season, I'd prefer if you didn't tweet me a screenshot of this article while calling me a clown. Just calling me a clown is fine. Seriously though, by no means am I saying Guentzel will have a bad debut season with the Lightning. My concern is that fantasy managers will automatically value him as a 100-point player and draft him in the first round accordingly. He has potential to live up to that appraisal, but there are so many unknowns here, which leaves a lot of room for disappointment. I'd personally prefer to use a mid/late first-round pick on a more proven 100-point player who doesn't have the extra task of fitting in with a new team. Someone like Mikko Rantanen or Kirill Kaprizov, perhaps.

J.T. Miller

The 31-year-old forward is an incredibly gifted player, surrounded by plenty of talent in Vancouver. Last season, Miller racked up a career-high 103 points to finish ninth in league scoring. On the heels of such a strong performance, I imagine his fantasy value will be at an all-time high in upcoming drafts. That means it'll cost a lot to acquire him in most formats, whether that be using an early pick to select him, or packaging high-value assets to acquire him in a trade. Regardless, at such a high price, there will be incredibly high expectations, and he'd need to produce like he did last year in order for you to get a return on your investment.

Considering Miller has paced for 100 points in two of the last three seasons, it's certainly possible he does it again this year. However, looking at the numbers underlying last year's career-high output, I'm concerned some of his success was fueled by factors that will be hard to replicate next season. The main thing I'm referring to here is shooting percentage. Last year, Miller scored on 18.9% of the shots he took during 5-on-5 play. Over the past three seasons – a much larger and more reliable sample – Miller's success rate at 5-on-5 was a much more modest 12% (via NaturalStatTrick). Then there's the matter of 5-on-5 on-ice shooting percentage, which represents the proportion of a team's shots that turned into goals while a player was on the ice. Last year, Miller's mark was 12.9% – a sizeable step up from the 10.3% he'd averaged through three seasons prior (NaturalStatTrick). In other words, he and the players he skated with saw more of their shots turn into goals than they had in years past. Although some of this may be explained by the fact that 'icemates' like Brock Boeser and Quinn Hughes played well last year, I think the increase in these percentages is too great for that to be the sole explanation. Miller may have benefitted from some luck last year, and it's hard to expect something like that to happen again. In my eyes, there are other players who produced at a high rate but also have more reliable and seemingly sustainable underlying metrics. I'd rather use my first or second-round draft pick on those players, rather than taking a risk that Miller repeats last year's excellence.

Quick Thoughts

Cam Talbot – Posted solid numbers last year, but behind a strong defensive team in Los Angeles. Detroit is a much weaker team defensively, so I'd expect weaker numbers from him this season.

Brent Burns – 39-year-old defenseman who finally looks set to step into a smaller role on the power play after Carolina's recent signing of Shayne Gostisbehere.

Steven Stamkos – A large part of his offense in recent years came on the power play – thanks to a star-studded Lightning that had a lot of chemistry. Being one of two new faces on Nashville's top unit sets up a situation where Stamkos and the rest of Preds' PP1 will need time to get familiar with each other before producing impressive results. While he may have been the primary triggerman in Tampa, he's one of many high-volume shooters on Nashville's top unit. As a result, it may take some extra time to find harmony with these overlapping skillsets.