Every Sunday, we share 21 Fantasy Rambles from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s 'Daily Ramblings'.

Writers/Editors: Ian Gooding, Michael Clifford, Alexander MacLean, Brennan Des and Dobber

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1. The Dobber Hockey 2024-25 Fantasy Guide will be available for download tomorrow, as confirmed by Dobber on X.

Yes, tomorrow, Monday, July 29!!

It has depth charts, projections, prospect coverage, rebounds, declines, breakouts, and a whole lot more. It is a digital-only copy, and that means it will be updated right up until the start of the regular season to reflect any signings, trades, injuries, or line combination movement that occurs. Help support what we do year-round and pre-order your copy now!

2. A couple weeks ago I mentioned that I completed the writeups in the Fantasy Guide for players on each team that are strong contributors to the Hits category, which you can read about here. Because many leagues that count hits also count blocked shots, I’ll follow up with some discussion on the blocked shots category. 

A few observations about blocked shots in terms of what to look out for:

Defensemen typically lead in blocked shots, as they are more frequently in positions to block shots. The top 100 players in blocked shots in 2023-24 were all defensemen. The only forwards to block more than 100 shots in 2023-24 were Ryan Poehling (105 BKS) and Beck Malenstyn (103 BKS). Neither of these forwards has a ton of value in scoring leagues.

Players with high average time on ice (TOI) are more likely to accumulate blocked shots. Of the top 15 blocked shots leaders, 11 averaged at least 20 minutes of icetime per game. Of those players, John Carlson and Mike Matheson both averaged over 25 minutes per game. The exception is Nick Seeler, who finished fifth with 205 blocked shots even though he averaged just under 17 minutes per game. (july27)

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3. Patrik Laine has officially been cleared to return from the NHL/NHLPA Player Assistance Program. This is good news because Laine was in the program for mental health reasons, and it seems like he is well enough to resume his career. What this also means is that the Blue Jackets are now free to trade him.

Laine hasn’t necessarily been a bust for the Blue Jackets, as it might seem. He has produced at a near point-per-game level during his first two full seasons in Columbus (108 points in 111 games). However, he has not clicked at all with Johnny Gaudreau. Since the Jackets signed Gaudreau two offseasons ago, Gaudreau has had the primary assist on only six of Laine’s 28 goals even though the two have regularly been linemates at even strength and on the power play. Now the Jackets have also signed Gaudreau’s former Calgary linemate in Sean Monahan, hoping that will ignite the offense.  (july27)

4. If and when the Jackets trade Laine, don’t expect them to receive a whole lot in return. Laine currently has an $8.7 million cap hit for two more seasons, which is not easy to move. A team in a rebuilding state may be able to make that work under their salary cap, but most teams have already solidified their rosters for the coming season and are simply looking for depth options. The Blue Jackets could consider retaining salary to make a trade work. There’s still plenty of time for a deal to happen, but I have my doubts that one will be completed this offseason. (july27)

5. The Blue Jackets also made news earlier in the week, hiring Dean Evason to be their new head coach. Evason is an accountable, passionate, and perhaps even intense coach, which is something the Jackets may have been lacking from recent previous head coaches (no, I don’t mean John Tortorella). It will be interesting to see how scorers that have seen better days like Patrik Laine and Johnny Gaudreau respond to that. Evason seemed to get the most out of the Minnesota roster for much of the time that he was there.  (july27)

6. Alex also wrote about Columbus hiring Dean Evason as their head coach. I encourage readers to check out what he had to say there. 

One thing I will note is something I saw when perusing the HockeyViz site. That site has a section on coaching impact as it relates to expected goals for and expected goals against at different goal states (leading, trailing, up two goals, down two goals and so on). What stuck out to me is that while strategies changed over the last few seasons, the Minnesota Wild frequently locked things down defensively.

In 2021-22, the Wild were around league average or better by expected goals against regardless of the state of the game (trailing or leading). In 2022-23, the same was true except when leading by one (check out the chart here).

There isn’t much of a sample for Evason in 2023-24 because he was fired about six weeks into the season, but the Wild were a team that excelled defensively almost regardless of whether they had the lead or were chasing it. If there is one thing Columbus really needs to work on, it’s their defensive game, and if he can help that, it’ll be a big boost to their goaltending. There is a long way for that team to go until they get competent in this regard, but if they can stay healthy, I wouldn’t dismiss the potential for a significant, immediate upgrade defensively. Keep that in mind when looking for late-round goaltenders in fantasy drafts. (july25)

7. Rafael Harvey-Pinard underwent surgery for a broken leg on Thursday. The expected recovery is four months, meaning that he will miss training camp and likely at least the first month of the season. Harvey-Pinard registered just 10 points in 45 games in 2023-24, but he showed some promise the season before with 20 points in 34 games. He will likely slot in as a bottom-6 forward for the Habs once he returns, with possible upside to move up the lineup.  (july27)

8. The Sharks have signed Thomas Bordeleau to a one-year, two-way contract. Bordeleau split 2023-24 between the Sharks and their AHL affiliate the Barracuda, finishing with 11 points in 27 games at the NHL level. He could make the Sharks out of training camp, but the two-way contract means that nothing is guaranteed for an NHL spot.  (july27)

9. By the way, perfect for the dog days of summer: Check out our Frozen Tools news feed for a consistent rollout of player news.

10. The Buffalo Sabres signed goalie Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen to a five-year contract carrying an average annual value of $4.75M. Luukkonen is coming off a breakout season with a .910 save percentage and 27 wins across 51 starts.

This is an interesting contract for the Sabres because the clock has already started on Devon Levi, and he’ll be due a contract extension next summer. However, they signed James Reimer, so it seems the plan is to give Levi one more season of development in the AHL. That will make his extension next summer very cheap, so they’ll probably be able to run a Luukkonen/Levi tandem for around $6M a season starting in 2025-26. With the cap over $90M at that point, it seems perfectly fine, and there are worse situations than having two 20-something goalies prove themselves as starters while on reasonable contracts.

There should be some trepidation around Luukkonen in fantasy, though. It was great to see him break out, but it basically amounted to four very good months and the team has had significant turnover, including a new coach. He looks to be the guy for now, but he’s still nowhere near the top tier of goalies. He is in that mushy middle, and that can make him very valuable or an anchor in cap leagues. Goalies, man. (july26)

11. Philadelphia signed forward Travis Konecny to an eight-year deal worth $8.75M per season. He was set to be an unrestricted free agent after the 2024-25 campaign.

For fantasy, this one is dicey. I have been the conductor of the Travis Konecny Freight Train for a few years now, and it’s paid off pretty well. On the flipside, in cap leagues, this is still a Flyers team that has to prove it doesn’t have a basement-level power play before we can believe that Konecny is a slam-dunk point-per-game player. He can get there with a league-average power play, and adding Matvei Michkov will help, but it’s a big risk in cap formats. (july26)

12. My last two Ramblings have covered the changes in peripheral fantasy hockey stats over the last few seasons with Tuesday’s going over shots, hits, blocks, and PIMs (split among forwards and defencemen). On Thursday, changes in goals, assists (both first and second), special team production, and milestones reached in those categories were reviewed. Today, we’ll stay with goals and assists but look at the changes among forwards and defencemen to see how the positions are evolving. (july26)

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13. One super dark horse that I will make sure to keep an eye on this year is Kyle MacLean, and it’s not just because we share a last name. He played 32 games last season, registering nine points, which wouldn’t be all that special if it wasn’t for his IPP of 82%, and his primary points percentage of 77%. He also brought two hits per game, which is great for leagues that count it, but also the manner of his hits was noteworthy.

I watched each of his points this past season (great little tool in the game log section of Frozentools) and many of the points started with a MacLean hit causing a turnover, some puck retrieval, and then him going straight to the front of the net. It’s a recipe for success that should play well anywhere in the lineup. If Brock Nelson starts the year as LW1 like he was the last quarter of 2023-24, then that would slot MacLean is as the 3C alongside Kyle Palmieri and Pierre Engvall. That would be a step up from last season’s running-mates of Cal Clutterbuck and Matt Martin.

On top of that, he’s signed for three years at the league minimum. A bargain for cap leagues. It’s still a long shot, but in those big dynasty cap leagues he’s probably available for nothing, and if feels like there’s more upside here than your typical off-the-radar fourth line guy.

Maclean is one of the players I dug up while researching the Annual DobberHockey Fantasy Guide. If you want to find the rest of those possible gems on one-way contracts, then you’re going to have to buy the guide. (july24)

14. In previous years we have had a schedule of arbitration hearings that range in dates from July 20^th to August 4^th. We’re into that timeframe now and we have not had any arbitration hearings scheduled, but a few players who elected for arbitration have settled prior to a hearing. You can find the list of players who filed here, and the explanation as to why the NHLPA changed approaches here.

This doesn’t have a huge impact on fantasy, but it does mean that cases will be happening under the radar, and we should have some resolutions to the Martin Necas case and others in relatively short order. If any of them are being dangled in your leagues now could be the time to pounce on the uncertainty. (july24)

15. Let's discuss a few players that seem primed for success in the upcoming season. 

Seth Jones: Chicago’s projected roster for the 2024-2025 campaign features a lot more forward talent than it did last year. They’ve added Tyler Bertuzzi and Teuvo Teravainen through free agency but will also get a boost from a healthy Taylor Hall, who missed most of last year with an injury. With all this new talent up front, it’s hard to say which wingers will be placed in the most favourable roles (i.e., on the top power-play unit and beside Connor Bedard at even strength).

Bedard is a lock for the top unit. That leaves three forward spots on the PP and four potential candidates. Hall has shown elite offensive ability earlier in his career, but not so much in recent years. As such, there’s an argument for him to play with the top group, but it isn’t quite a no-brainer. Teravainen falls into a similar category, although his offensive success is more recent than Hall’s. Kurashev’s argument centers around his chemistry with Bedard, while Bertuzzi’s hinges on his unique net-front ability.

Now, instead of trying to guess which forwards end up in the best situations, it might make sense to target the defenseman whose improved role is slightly more secure: Seth Jones. Not only will he benefit from sharing the ice with better players, but his claim to power-play time is more concrete than the team’s wingers. Jones has seen nearly 70% of Chicago’s total time with the man advantage in each of the three seasons he’s been with the team. Sure, the results haven’t been spectacular over the past two years, but he also suffered from a subpar supporting cast. From a financial perspective, Jones is Chicago’s biggest investment on paper right now, so it makes sense that they’d put him in situations where he can produce, to maximize return on that investment. Kevin Korchinski may threaten Jones for offensive opportunity in the future, but I don’t think he’ll be ready to take that step this season as a 20-year-old sophomore.

Instead of taking a gamble on Chicago’s wingers, whose roles remain up in the air right now, it might make sense to bet on the indirect beneficiary of the team’s offseason moves – Jones. With an improved supporting cast, Jones has great potential to return to the 50–60-point range. (july22)

16. Aaron Ekblad: With Brandon Montour out of the picture in Florida, either Ekblad or Gustav Forsling should step up as the team’s top power-play defenseman. I expect Ekblad will get that role because he has more experience manning the Panthers’ top unit. During the 21-22 season, he posted a 77-point pace while seeing 70% of Florida’s time with the man advantage. Similar opportunity could lead to similar production this year. (july22)

17. Tommy Novak: Entering the fourth year of his NHL career, 27-year-old Tommy Novak is set to see a massive upgrade in linemate quality. Last season, he spent most of his minutes beside Luke Evangelista and Mark Jankowski, who have 79 career goals combined. His new projected linemates Jonathan Marchessault and Steven Stamkos both reached the 40-goal mark last season, giving them more goals in one season than Novak’s former linemates had in their whole careers. Obviously Evengelista is still young and improving, but the point remains relevant as we’re talking about the current state of all these players.

Despite his attractive new role, Novak’s fantasy stock should still be discounted in upcoming drafts as he paced for just 52 points last year – a significant drop from the previous year’s pace of 69. He’s unlikely to see top unit power-play time, which limits his value, but there’s still room for his overall role to grow as he skated just 14 minutes last year. More time beside higher-quality players should help him improve on last year’s output, even with secondary power-play minutes. (july22)

18. William Eklund: With all eyes in San Jose focused on Macklin Celebrini this season, some other promising Sharks are likely to fall under the radar. Eklund, the seventh overall pick of the 2021 draft, is a name that stands out because he’s already proven he can produce in the NHL. His overall output from last season is modest, but a closer look reveals he put up 20 points in his final 24 appearances, which translates to 68 points over 82 games. He’s set to see a prominent role this season, at both even strength and on the power play. (july22)

19. Jake Neighbours: Last year, in his first full NHL season, the 22-year-old forward posted a modest 40-point pace. While that in itself is encouraging, a closer look reveals that he was especially productive down the stretch when he was given an expanded role. In his first 40 games, Neighbours skated less than 15 minutes a night, saw just 25% of St. Louis’ total time with the man advantage, and tallied just 15 points. In his final 37 outings, he racked up 23 points while skating nearly 17 minutes a night and seeing a 58% share of power-play time. That favourable deployment he saw in the second half represents the kind of action he should see during the upcoming campaign. Drafted 26th overall in 2020, Neighbours is developing quickly and should take another step forward this year. (july22)

20. Victor Olofsson: With Vegas’ top nine looking vastly different from last year, it remains to be seen where new forward acquisitions will fit into the new roster. As it stands, Mark Stone, Ivan Barbashev and Pavel Dorofeyev seem locked into top-six winger roles, leaving a final spot for one of Victor Olofsson, Alexander Holtz or Brendan Brisson. While Holtz and Brisson are young and seem to have the most upside, there’s no rush for them to realize their potential right away. It might make sense for both players to start out in more sheltered third line roles, where they should have space to develop their games. That sets the stage for Olofsson to snag that final spot in the top six. 

Among the three candidates listed above, Olofsson has the most experience and success in the NHL. He’s reached the 20-goal mark three times in his five seasons, flirting with a 60-point pace twice. Despite his offensive upside, he fell out of favour in Buffalo recently due to his defensive deficiencies. Reduced to less than 12 minutes a night in a depth role last year, he scored at a shocking 24-point pace. As a result of last season’s struggles, his fantasy value is likely low right now, leaving lots of room for him to outperform his cost at the draft table. A fresh start in Vegas should bring Olofsson more ice time, but also more exposure to higher quality players. (july22)

21. Since I couldn’t think of what to write about today, I reached out to you on X for topics or questions. Thank you to all who replied. I didn’t write responses to everyone due to lack of time and the amount of research on my part. I’m still finishing my portion of the Fantasy Guide (purchase here), which will be available on July 29.

Anyway, I’ll take a stab at a few of these.

Asked @SteveLaidlaw: Which archetype do you prefer?

A. Best Forward on a bad offensive team (for example Kevin Fiala or Robert Thomas)?
B. 3rd or 4th Forward on a great offensive team (Chris Kreider or Brock Boeser)?

And does your answer above show through in how you rank and draft players?

I’ll start by hand-picking an obviously great offensive team (Edmonton, 4^th with 294 GF) and with an obviously poor offensive team (San Jose, 31^st with 181 GF). In this particular example, you’d take the third or fourth-best forward on the great offensive team. Zach Hyman and his 54 goals or even Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and his 67 points should easily be drafted over Mikael Granlund and his 12 goals and 60 points.

The example Steve provided is a little closer than that. All of these forwards were within the 70-80-point range with the exception of Robert Thomas, who (perhaps quietly) broke through with an 86-point campaign. Thomas could be more closely ranked to the other three players in multicategory leagues than in pure points leagues because he scored fewer goals than all of Kevin Fiala, Brock Boeser, and Chris Kreider. I actually have Thomas ranked lower in the Roto Rankings than the other three, so this could be a call to move him up.

Player Compare: Boeser/Fiala/Kreider/Thomas

I wouldn’t consider St. Louis and Los Angeles to have extremely terrible offenses. Especially not LA, who finished in the middle of the pack in offense in 2023-24. The Blues did finish in the bottom 10 in offense, while the Canucks and Rangers finished in the top 10 in offense.

Ironically, an example the other way would be Colorado (1^st with 304 GF) and Chicago (32^nd with 179 GF). For the Avalanche, remove Valeri Nichushkin, who will be in the NHLPA Player Assistance Program until November, and their third-highest projected forward would be Artturi Lehkonen with 0.76 PTS/GP. For the Blackhawks, Connor Bedard had 0.9 PTS/GP in his rookie season and only stands to get better. I know which player I’m picking in single-season leagues.

The Colorado/Chicago comparison might indicate a trend where the Avs fall from being the top offense and the Hawks improve from being the worst offense. Don’t forget that the Blackhawks have also picked up Teuvo Teravainen and Tyler Bertuzzi, who were the third- and fourth-highest scorers among current Blackhawks last season.

I’m not sure there’s a quick and easy answer to this question. It could certainly depend on the magnitude of “how good/how bad” the offenses are. I honestly hadn’t thought of ranking forwards that way before, but that might be a benchmark I start to consider when drafting a forward. In other words, before drafting the top scorer from a bottom-10 offense, have the top two forwards of a top-10 offense been drafted? You could run through a lot of scenarios with top-10 and bottom-10 offenses. Some teams might be extremely reliant on 1-2 forwards, while other teams might have more spread-out scoring, which would affect the results. (july21)

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