Every Sunday, we share 21 Fantasy Rambles from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s 'Daily Ramblings'.

Writers/Editors: Ian Gooding, Michael Clifford, Alexander MacLean, Brennan Des and Dobber

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The 2024-25 Dobber Hockey Fantasy Guide is available in the Dobber Shop! The nice thing is that because it is digital-only, updates can be made as news changes.

Our French version of the Guide, Le Guide des Poolers, is also available via this link.

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1. The hockey world is in mourning with the sudden and tragic passing of Johnny Gaudreau and his brother Matthew Gaudreau. The two were cycling in New Jersey on Thursday evening when they were struck by an impaired driver. This is devastating news on so many levels.

Johnny Gaudreau was a bona fide NHL star and was a giant in the game of fantasy hockey. Prior to his NHL career, he was the 2014 Hobey Baker Award winner as the NCAA’s top college hockey player. He also participated in seven NHL All-Star Games, made the NHL All-Rookie Team in 2015, won the Lady Byng Trophy in 2017, and was a First NHL All-Star in 2022 following a career-high 40 goals and 115 points with Calgary (tied for 2nd in points). During the summer of 2022, Gaudreau signed a seven-year, $68.25 million contract with Columbus, where he played for the past two seasons.

Since his first full season in 2014-15, only eight players have registered more points than Gaudreau. He finished with 743 points (including exactly 500 assists) in 763 games, which is very close to a point-per-game average.

At just 5-9 and 160 pounds, he possessed elite-level talent and was one of the game’s most exciting players. (aug31)

2. Obviously, this leaves a big hole in the Blue Jackets’ lineup. However, I don’t believe this is a day to discuss the particulars of how this impacts the Blue Jackets in terms of who jumps onto the top line and first power-play and so on. If you would like to determine that yourself right away, go to Frozen Tools or the Offseason Fantasy Grades article for Columbus. Or better yet, download the latest copy of the Fantasy Guide (purchase a copy here if you haven’t already).

This news is too raw and far surpasses fantasy hockey. We can break down what the Columbus lineup will look like on another day. This is an already struggling team that will have to come to grips with the loss of their leading point-getter from last season, and a player who by many accounts was an outstanding teammate and person who touched the lives of many.

I'll finish with some tributes from social media. [Follow the link…]

3. A mock draft seems like something that could get the ball rolling after pushing aside fantasy hockey for a few days of the ocean and waterfalls. I see that Fantrax has just opened for mock drafts, so let’s check it out.

I signed up for a mock draft that took place on Wednesday evening, which seems ideal despite my tired state. The first thing I noticed in the first page of rankings is that Thatcher Demko has an ADP of 6.77. Uh oh. Demko is the third-ranked goalie after Connor Hellebuyck and Sergei Bobrovsky. I’d have to think that number will drop over time based on awareness of Demko’s injury situation and maybe fewer auto-drafters, but buyer beware if you have an early Fantrax mock draft.

I chose to select at #4 because I had been #3 in my previous mock draft, which had left me with one of the big three of Connor McDavid, Nathan MacKinnon, and Nikita Kucherov. However, Fantrax’s ADP rankings placed Hellebuyck and Bobrovsky ahead of Kucherov and McDavid, which is a complete surprise to me. McDavid even had an ADP of 6.58, which seems inexplicable given his standing as fantasy hockey’s top dog. I hadn’t used Fantasy Hockey Geek to determine how valuable a goalie would be this early, but I’m not taking that chance given the variable value they seem to provide season by season. (aug30)

4. Other goalies with outrageously high ADPs include Charlie Lindgren (18.53), Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (21.44), and Connor Ingram (22.51). Sure enough, they were picked way too early, as you can find out here.

I’ve gone on the record in the past as saying that autopick isn’t as awful as you think. Yet for Fantrax, I would strongly recommend not letting it autopick. Being stuck with a struggling goalie as your first- or second-round pick is a sure-fire way to put your team behind the 8-ball. (aug30)

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5. Training camps don’t start for a few weeks, but it’s important to look ahead to start wrapping our collective heads around what to look for. My next few Ramblings are going to cover training camp battles, going division by division, and today we start with the Atlantic.  

One thing I have noticed about team training camps over the last half-decade or so is that teams don’t really waste time on them anymore. If, for example, teams have 50 players report to a training camp, probably 20 of them are irrelevant to us. It won’t be long for those players to be separated into their second-tier camp while the main roster, plus some top prospects, are separated into the main camp. Subsequently, that also means it doesn’t take long to get to pertinent line combinations, be they at even strength or on the power play.

The 2024-25 Dobber Hockey Fantasy Guide – available in the Shop here – goes through line combinations and does work on what power play units will be. I still want to take the time to go through some lineup positions I will be watching for once camps start. (aug29)

6. Here are the training camp battles I’m keeping an eye on:

Florida Panthers: Who is Running the Power Play?

Brandon Montour has moved on to the Seattle Kraken, and that opens up the top power play role in Florida. Over the last two seasons, Montour averaged 28 power play points every 82 games in that role, so it’s prime real estate for fantasy production.  

An important reminder here is that when Montour was removed from the top PP unit in the Stanley Cup Final, it was Oliver Ekman-Larsson, and not Aaron Ekblad or Gustav Forsling. It was not a handedness thing, either, as OEL is a left shot, but Montour is a right shot. Last season, Frozen Tools had Ekblad with nearly 27% of the available PP time and Forsling just over 10%, so Ekblad is the clubhouse leader.

However, as I wrote back in July, the signing of Adam Boqvist is an interesting one. He managed over 43% of Columbus’s power play time in 2023-24, and was the go-to guy in 2022-23 when Zach Werenski was out for most of the season. He has a lot of experience running a power play and would have the most star-studded PP of his career in Florida. My guess is he at least gets a chance to carry that role, but we’ll find out when camps start. (aug29)

7. Toronto Maple Leafs: Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, and…?

Every year, fantasy owners want to know who is going to skate on the top line next to Matthews and Marner. The simple answer is that this role can lead to 20-goal (Zach Hyman and Michael Bunting) or 60-point (Bunting) seasons, and if a player can bring good peripherals, it is more than enough production to be a good multi-cat fantasy option.

While Max Domi might make some sense for the top-line left wing spot, he’s likely not good enough defensively to have the team rely on him for a full year with their top stars. It makes me wonder if this is the season that Matthew Knies gets moved to the top line. He had 15 goals and 20 assists last season, averaging over two hits per game, while skating under 14 minutes a night. If he can earn that top role, even without a prime power play spot, he has 20-goal, 50-point, 180-hit potential. Keep an eye on Leafs camp – not that it’ll be hard to find that information – because Knies could be a breakout fantasy option this season. (aug29)

8. Buffalo Sabres: J.J. Peterka’s Usage

With Jeff Skinner now in Edmonton, there is an open spot both in the Buffalo Sabres’ top-6 and on their top power play unit. Assuming that the top PP unit has Tage Thompson, Alex Tuch, and Dylan Cozens, the fourth spot is up for grabs. It should go to Peterka, but options remain in Jack Quinn, Jordan Greenway, Jason Zucker, and Zach Benson. Not to mention that with Tuch, Quinn, Zucker, Benson, Greenway, and Peterka, there are six wingers – prospects notwithstanding – for four winger spots on the top two lines. I assume Peterka gets one of them, but some confirmation would be nice.

Back in 2022-23, we saw what a top line, top power play role can provide as Skinner surpassed 80 points. That is what awaits Peterka if he can get the right spot in the lineup. There is a new coach in Lindy Ruff, so it’s ostensibly a clean slate, but there is a chasm of difference between top line/top PP usage and anything else. (aug29)

9. Montreal Canadiens: What Does the Blue Line Look Like?

After the trade sending Jordan Harris to Columbus for Patrik Laine, things opened a bit on the Montreal blue line but there is still a lot of competition. On the right side, there is David Savard, Justin Barron, and Logan Mailloux likely for the roster with David Reinbacher likely headed to the AHL. The left side has Mike Matheson, Kaiden Guhle, Lane Hutson, Arber Xhekaj, and Jayden Struble. That makes eight, if not nine, defencemen for seven spots. All of Reinbacher, Mailloux, Hutson, Struble, and Guhle have contracts that can be sent to the AHL without waivers, and if we assume Reinbacher is sent down while Mailloux and Guhle are locks, it leaves Hutson and Struble.

I have maintained that I think Hutson goes to the AHL to start the year before a recall after 20-30 games, though the Harris trade has left me a little more uncertain. Also, Guhle has played the right side before so maybe Mailloux gets the short end of the stick. The long and short is that after Matheson, Guhle, and Savard, there is a lot of competition, and camps can create clarity. (aug29)

10. Boston Bruins: Where Does Pavel Zacha Fit In?

Boston signed Elias Lindholm in the offseason, and he’ll almost certainly be the top-line centre. They have Charlie Coyle returning and Matthew Poitras healthy. The Bruins signed Mark Kastelic who could take up fourth-line duties. It means that there isn’t necessarily a need to leave Zacha at centre, and he could move to the left wing on one of the top two lines with Brad Marchand taking the other role. It could mean a top-6 that looks something like this:

Brad Marchand – Elias Lindholm – Morgan Geekie
Pavel Zacha – Charlie Coyle – David Pastrnak

There are ways things can look mighty different. Maybe the team wants to use Poitras on the wing rather than centre, or maybe they want to use Trent Frederic in the top-6 and leave Zacha as a centre. However, that top-6, plus Poitras and Frederic, makes eight forwards for six spots. With Lindholm, Marchand, and Pastrňák as locks, that leaves five forwards for three spots. How the team decides to use Zacha will tell us a lot about who will comprise the rest of the top two lines. (aug29)

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11. Each of our editors has favourite players, favourite teams, players they end up commenting on more often, and players that end up being a little forgotten or overlooked. It feels like when writing the Ramblings we try our best to cover as much as we can as evenly as possible, but there is certainly a lean towards those topics and players that we know and like best. Today I wanted to flip that, and talk about some players whose outlooks I am not high on going into next season. These are the players who may still be fantasy relevant, or even very good, but I don’t feel their hype or name value is nearly keeping up with their actual value.

As some quick examples, Mark Stone comes to mind first. While he’s a great fantasy producer when healthy, but I’m not taking the risk. Same goes for Gabe Landeskog (who I really do hope gets better and makes a full return) and Sean Couturier. Neither one is young enough to tempt me with their upside, and the floor is that they’re injured the entire season. There will always be someone who reaches for the name before my watch list of other interesting players runs out.

Trevor Zegras – Lots of people love Zegras and think that he has a higher level to reach offensively. From what I have seen and what the numbers tell me, I think he’s more so a 55- to 60-point player rather than anything in the 70+ range. Anaheim has enough high-end forwards coming up that he could be well insulated, or just pushed down the depth chart, and based on the fact that it feels like they have been trying to trade him for the last year or so, it feels like there is certainly a real risk of the latter. (aug28)

12. Josh Norris – I still like Norris’ situation and his upside, but that shoulder really concerns me. It does kind of remind me of Vladimir Tarasenko, who missed large portions of multiple seasons with a similar shoulder surgery, and then once he was finally back to full health, generally dropped off with his overall performance. Even with multiple surgeries for him, the shoulder was eventually healthy enough to string several healthy seasons together, but it did take a while. I’ll let someone else wait that one out. (aug28)

13. Brandon Montour is being viewed as a 70-point defenceman in some leagues, with many people thinking he is going to take over top power play unit duties in Seattle, bringing him back to a high level of fantasy production. Unfortunately, there’s a lot of signs against that. Initially, just looking at his own stats from Florida, and he saw a whopping 72% of the available power play time the last two seasons. Despite that, he has a relatively low PP IPP, and his drop in scoring this season was punctuated by a secondary assist rate of 76%, which is very high, even for a defenceman.

Overall, it looks and feels like Montour is more of a 40-point defenceman that had one excellent and lucky season rather than a player whose higher potential was unlocked in Florida and having that used as a benchmark moving forward. He’s someone I would really be trying to sell high on this offseason, and if I was Seattle he really wouldn’t have been one of my targets at all – especially not at $7 million per year.

In contrast, Vince Dunn has been excellent in Seattle over the last couple of years, with a higher PP IPP, a very consistent 63-point pace the last two years despite a few fluctuating underlying numbers, and the familiarity with the existing group. Both Dunn and Montour have had similar deployment, so they could be partnered together at times at even strength, but more likely is that they will be split across the top two pairs to give both sets a puck-mover. The power play is where the most important production will stem from though, and Dunn’s underlying numbers give him an advantage there as well.

Dan Bylsma coming in as the new coach also confounds things, as he hasn’t coached in the NHL since 2016-17, so we don’t have a lot to go on. His history with managing defencemen on the power play his last three years of coaching is succinctly explained as “put Rasmus Ristolainen out as much as possible in Buffalo and run out Matt Niskanen as much as possible while Kris Letang is injured”. It does feel like Bylsma picks one defenceman and sticks with him on the top unit, it will be interesting in Seattle’s case though with at least 10 different skaters that have a solid claim to power play time, whether they just end up with two fairly equivalent units. (aug28)

14. Ah, Alex Ovechkin. In my mind, the greatest scorer the game has yet seen, but his pursuit of the all-time scoring title has slowed lately. If it wasn’t for that second-half surge last year then we would likely all be saying that his chase is a token attempt at this point and he’s unlikely to make it. As it is, Ovechkin scored 23 goals in 40 second-half games, showing that there are still some elite scoring streaks left in him. The scoring streak lines up with when he was moved onto a line with Connor McMichael and T.J. Oshie, so if it was mainly the McMichael magic that got him going, it could be very transferrable to this year (and could put McMichael in line for a solid full campaign).

However, he enters the season as a 39-year-old, on a team that is likely not a playoff team come springtime, and with Oshie’s injury status uncertain, there’s a need to find another complimentary player to go along with Ovie – and I don’t think that new addition Pierre-Luc Dubois is that player. To top it all off, last year was the lowest shot rate of Ovechkin’s career, Ovie is a very risky play this year at 3.4 per game. In 18 prior seasons he had never been below 3.8, and only twice came in below 4.0. The signs are all there that the decline is in full swing, so I’m going to let someone else take the chance on him this year. (aug28)

15. To list a few other names who I am fading, but don’t have time to dive into right now:

Sergei Bobrovsky – 35 years old and coming off a cup run where he was just average, but the perception is that he shone.

Dylan Larkin – In my head he’s still 25, which makes it disappointing to discover he’s actually 28, and has maxed out at a point-per-game. He gets valued the same as similar or younger centres that can and will put up 85-90 points.

Aaron Ekblad – He has really fallen off the last two years, and the underlying numbers bear that out. Despite Brandon Montour leaving, I think Ekblad will maintain his general overall usage, while Gus Forsling and others will mop up the offensive zone starts and sheltered minutes.

Tristan Jarry – Has been someone I have targeted over the last few years for his volume and win totals while not being viewed as a top-10 goalie in most fantasy circles. With this iteration of the Penguins, and Alex Nedeljkovic taking a bigger slice of the pie, I’m staying away. (aug28)

16. In two of my Ramblings last week, players that I’m avoiding and players I’m targeting were both discussed. A lot of the data used from that Ramblings came from the Underdog Fantasy website and their mock drafts.

Today’s Ramblings will discuss the differences between that site, ESPN, and Yahoo!, and in particular when it comes to ESPN’s projections. We are going to use the same parameters for both Underdog and ESPN.

This is just to look for where we can find some value in fantasy drafts across sites, and things are sure to change over the next six weeks.

The Top

What sticks out immediately is that where Underdog has the Connor McDavid–Nathan MacKinnon–Auston Matthews trio at the very top, ESPN has MacKinnon-Matthews-David Pastrnak as their top trio. In fact, on a per-game basis, they have McDavid earning about 10% fewer points than MacKinnon and about 8% fewer points than Matthews.

I wouldn’t overly argue if, in this particular scoring format, that people had McDavid third in the triumvirate of himself, Matthews, and MacKinnon. In fact, McDavid trails MacKinnon in fantasy points per game over the last three seasons (though he does edge Matthews). What is weird is having Pastrňák ahead of McDavid. There isn’t really an argument to be made from a positional perspective because right wing, at least on ESPN, has top-end names. There is Nikita Kucherov, Mikko Rantanen, William Nylander, and Matthew Tkachuk whom could all be first-round picks (at least three of the four likely are).

Anyway, it probably doesn’t make a huge difference, and I’m assuming most people will take McDavid if he’s still available third overall in any draft. I just found that interesting. (aug27)

17. The Next Tier of Centres

Once the elite centres are off the board, there are a slew of similar players. On ESPN, using their projections, Sidney Crosby, JT Miller, Elias Pettersson, Brayden Point, Jack Eichel, and Steven Stamkos are ranked 17^th through 23^rd off the board. Assuming maybe one or two goalies taken in the top two rounds of a 12-team draft, that could mean all those names go at in the mid-late portion of the second round. That seems… high.

In fact, when I translate the Dobber Hockey 2024-25 Fantasy Guide projections (that guide is available in the Dobber Shop right now), there are large discrepancies. For example, Miller and Pettersson are projected over a full fantasy point more per game than Stamkos while Eichel is at the front of the group in fantasy points per game. Tim Stützle is projected ahead of Crosby, Points, and Stamkos, and Stamkos trails both Connor Bedard and Dylan Larkin. In fact, using the Dobber projections, there is a bigger gap between Stützle and Stamkos (0.48 fpts/game) than there is Stamkos and Macklin Celebrini (0.38 fpts/game).

I still think Stamkos is being overrated some. Over the last three seasons, he’s 22^nd by fantasy points per game. Add a few goalies and he has performed as, roughly, the 25^th player in fantasy hockey. That is great, but that’s also where his ADP is, and he’s going to a team that doesn’t have Nikita Kucherov and Brayden Point. Can he put up 40 power play points in Nashville like he nearly did in Tampa Bay last season (39)? It feels like asking a lot, and there might be better value to be had elsewhere. (aug27)

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18. In this week’s Ramblings, I’ll share a ‘value pick’ for each team. While such a term might paint visions of McDoubles and Junior Chickens, this isn’t like the McDonald’s value menu – with cheap items at cheap prices. It’s more like your grocery store flyer, highlighting value in products of various price points. I’ve included star players undervalued due to recent struggles, as well as unheralded threats preparing for liftoff. In my mind, players on the list below are destined to outperform their fantasy draft positions.

Anaheim Ducks – Trevor Zegras

Injuries often affect player production, but that creates an opportunity for fantasy managers to buy low and reap rewards when such players are healthy and producing. You’ll notice many players on this list are flying under the radar this season because they were held back by injury last year. Zegras is a prime example as injuries limited him to a 40-point pace last season after he paced for 65+ in his previous two campaigns. Although his overall output last year was underwhelming, he did finish with eight points in his last eight appearances – perhaps a prelude to this year’s bounce-back performance? (aug26)

19. Boston Bruins – Pavel Zacha

Elias Lindholm is the shiny new toy in Boston and will probably get more attention than Zacha in fantasy drafts. However, the latter has shown chemistry with star goal scorer David Pastrnak and will likely see minutes beside him again this year. Zacha finished last season with 21 points in his final 19 appearances. His power-play role remains up in the air, but given how much he’s flying under the radar, he can still provide positive value even if he ends up on Boston’s second PP unit. (aug26)

20. Buffalo Sabres – Dylan Cozens

Buffalo’s power-play struggles led to underwhelming point totals for most of the team’s forwards last year. It’s strange because they thrived on the man advantage the year prior, which leads me to believe they should be able to rediscover some of that recent magic. Cozens played a role in the team’s previous power-play success, so I imagine he’ll be involved again this year. He’ll go later in drafts than someone like Tage Thompson, meaning more room for him to outperform draft position. (aug26)

21. Calgary Flames – Jonathan Huberdeau

When a good player has one bad year, there’s usually hope for a bounce back the next season. When they have two bad years in a row, their fantasy value drops dramatically. Such seems to be the case for Huberdeau, whose previous success in Florida has been overshadowed by these past two years in Calgary. He was plagued by low shooting percentages last year, which forms the foundation of my hope for a bounce-back performance. His fantasy stock is at an all-time low, so there’s plenty of room for him to exceed expectations. (aug26)

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Have a good week, folks!
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