Every Sunday, we share 21 Fantasy Rambles from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s 'Daily Ramblings'.

Writers/Editors: Ian Gooding, Michael Clifford, Alexander MacLean, Brennan Des and Dobber

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1. Did anyone see the massive trade coming? The deal itself might have been out of left field, but it shouldn’t be a complete shocker that Mikko Rantanen and Martin Necas were traded. Re-signing Rantanen appeared to be a major challenge for the Avalanche, while Necas was rumored to be on the trade block during the summer before signing a two-year bridge deal. Obviously the fantasy implications of this trade are massive, which I wrote all about in the Fantasy Take. (jan25)

2. While the Hurricanes and Avalanche took care of business as needed, the Blackhawks’ commission as the third party needed to broker the deal didn’t seem high enough. Giving up Taylor Hall while retaining 50 percent of Rantanen’s salary ($4.625 million), all the Blackhawks had to show was a third-round pick (mind you, a high third-round pick, since it was their own, returned from Carolina). Maybe Hall on his own was worth a third-round pick, and half of his salary retained would have been $3 million. Even if the Blackhawks weren’t necessarily robbed in this deal, it feels like they left something on the table. (jan25)

3. The Devils announced on Friday that Jacob Markstrom will be out for the next 4-6 weeks with an MCL. This isn’t the worst-case scenario for Markstrom, but it is hardly ideal for the next few weeks. Only Connor Hellebuyck and Sam Montembeault have played more games than Markstrom (36), while only Hellebuyck and Jake Oettinger have more quality starts that Markstrom (23). On top of that, Marky has only three really bad starts and no really bad weeks all season, affirming his status as a set-and-forget fantasy goalie.

The quality goaltending volume that Markstrom provides is difficult to replace. The most obvious candidate as a potential fantasy replacement is Devils backup Jake Allen, whose workload should increase significantly as a result. At time of writing, Allen was rostered in under 25% of Yahoo leagues, so he should be available in shallower leagues. Jakub Dobes, Leevi Merilainen, Spencer Knight, and Yaroslav Askarov are decent options rostered in a similar percentage of Yahoo leagues compared to Allen, although none will give you the number of starts and upside for wins that Markstrom will. (jan25)

4. Here’s another consideration: The NHL will be on pause from February 10 to 21 – nearly two full weeks – for the 4 Nations Face-Off. That will cut into the actual time that you’ll need to find a replacement for Markstrom, which could mean that you’d be missing his services for only 2-3 weeks as a best-case scenario. The tournament starts on February 12 and finishes February 20. Related to the 4 Nations, Sweden will also need at least one more goalie, as Linus Ullmark is on LTIR and may not be ready in time.

Isaac Poulter was recalled from the AHL’s Utica Comets to back up Allen instead of Nico Daws, but the latter is expected to be recalled early this week and could start a few games while Markstrom is out. Allen’s trade from Montreal would award the Habs a second-round pick instead of a third-round pick if Allen plays 40 games (he has appeared in 15 games so far), so it makes sense for the Devils to monitor how many games Allen plays. With Allen a free agent in the offseason, Daws could be the goalie-in-waiting to backup Markstrom next season. Markstrom’s contract expires at the end of next season. (jan25)

5. In news that I wasn’t expecting, Tony DeAngelo has been signed by the Islanders for the rest of the season. DeAngelo’s signing could be a hint that Noah Dobson is out for a while (now on IR, listed as week-to-week with a lower-body injury). The Isles seem intent on pushing for a playoff spot in spite of having the third-lowest winning percentage in the Eastern Conference. DeAngelo would likely slot in on the top power play, so you can probably pause on adding Ryan Pulock at least for now. Cliffy provided the Fantasy Take on the TDA signing shortly after it was announced. (jan25)

6. I’ll let you in on a little fantasy summary hack: Go to Frozen Tools, then under Research select Report Generator. Change the Report Range to Today. Then click Big Board for a summary of the stats. (jan25)

7. Frank Nazar scored a goal and added an assist on Friday, giving him four points over his last three games. His ice time has steadily been climbing recently, ranging between 15 and nearly 18 minutes per game over the last five games. A side implication that I didn’t mention in the Fantasy Take of the blockbuster trade is that Hall being traded could solidify a full-time roster spot for Nazar. He scored 24 points in 21 games for Rockford in his first AHL season, knocking on the door for a callup. And yes, Nazar played on Connor Bedard‘s line on Friday. (jan25)

8. For an official confirmation from a team, the New York Islanders told us that the news on defenceman Noah Dobson (lower body) isn’t great, as he is considered week-to-week. As mentioned, the Four Nations Cup break starts two weeks from now. If Dobson is week-to-week, he may be out until the teams return from that time off. It would give Dobson lots of time to rest and rehab for a hopeful run at a playoff spot, however unlikely that may be. (jan24)

9. The Vegas Golden Knights also provided an update on forward William Karlsson, who's also out week-to-week with a lower body injury. Vegas is a team that has gone through their fair share of injuries over the last few years, and add another one to the pile. Hopefully he can be back before the Four Nations break, but at this point, if a player is deemed week-to-week, I am not expecting them back before the end of February. (jan24)

10. For all the bad news the Colorado Avalanche have had injury-wise this season, the recent update on forward Valeri Nichushkin was not a welcome one, as Coach Jared Bednar said he's "not close" to returning. Nichushkin returned from suspension in the middle of November, played 21 games, and hasn’t appeared yet in January. Given this update, it’s a wonder if he’s back in the lineup before the league takes a break after February 8^th for the Four Nations tournament. (jan23)

11. The Toronto Maple Leafs gave us an update on Max Pacioretty, who was placed on IR (retroactive to January 18). Not only was he moved to the injured reserve, but it was also mentioned that this isn’t a day-to-day thing. Pacioretty’s play had dipped recently so maybe there’s some correlation here, but it looks like he’ll be out of the lineup for the near-future. (jan23)

12. The 2024-25 Dobber Hockey Midseason Guide was released last week! It has everything that fantasy hockey enthusiasts need to close out their season including a look-ahead for each team, players that may be on the move by the Trade Deadline, prospects that could make an appearance before the end of the season, and a lot more. Help support what we do and grab a copy in the Dobber Shop! (jan23)

13. In a couple Ramblings last week, I looked at tracking data from AllThreeZones. In the first Ramblings, the focus was on changes for offence created off the rush from key players like Brock Nelson, Timo Meier, Seth Jarvis, Carter Verhaeghe, Nathan MacKinnon, and Cole Caufield.

The second Ramblings looked at changes in offence created off the forecheck for important fantasy options like Jason Robertson, Jesper Bratt, Dylan Strome, Vincent Trocheck, and more.

Today, we’re going to do some of the same thing and look at who is (or is not) carrying the puck into the zone. (jan23)

[Follow the link for more…]

14. In looking through the Midseason Fantasy Guide (get yours here, it’s not too late!) it was shocking to me how high the Capitals’ PDO metric was. For those of you unfamiliar with the term, it’s simply a combination number of a team’s overall shooting and save percentages – NHL average is 100 on the nose, so anything that deviates higher or lower is an indicator that the team has been lucky or unlucky. 

The Canucks set the recent standard with a PDO of 1.050 at the midway point, fifth highest of all time – with all four teams above them either rostering Wayne Gretzky, Mario Lemieux, or Mike Bossy. They ultimately finished the season at 1.027 – the fourth-highest season total since the 2013 lockout-shortened year. All that to say, the Capitals with a PDO of 1.032 (at time of writing), are due for some regression. To a lesser extent, the Jets, Lightning, and Kings (all above 1.02) are as well.

Now, though there will be some regression, it does feel like there is something special about this Caps team as they have come together, orbiting around Alex Ovechkin and his chase for history. At this rate, Ovechkin would pass Gretzky’s all-time goal scoring record sometime in early-mid March. With a playoff spot likely locked up by that point as well, I wonder if the adrenaline that might have been carrying them on this run doesn’t just fizzle out until the playoffs, with no more record to chase. This thought is going to make me a bit more hesitant about owning Capitals for the stretch run, including fantasy playoffs. (jan22)

15. On the flipside, as we look at overall team production, one team that many may expect to fall off in the second half is the Columbus Blue Jackets. However, I think they finish the season strong. They have been treading water well the last few weeks despite a few key injuries and are still in the thick of the playoff race. Justin Danforth just returned last Monday from a multi-week absence, with both Sean Monahan and Boone Jenner possibly returning after the Four-Nations Faceoff. Yegor Chinakhov could be back even sooner, though his injury timeline is a little murkier. That’s a third of the team’s forward roster for any given game that the Blue Jackets will be upgrading from AHL players to solid NHLers. (jan22)

16. The NHL salary cap is rumoured to be jumping even higher next season than the initial estimate of $92 million, perhaps even up to $97 million. This isn't just conjuring ideals out of thin air either. This is based on information that the players are not paying any more escrow the rest of the season, and on top of that they're getting an extra percentage because of higher-than-expected revenues. As the revenues climb, so too does the cap, so if there's a big jump in revenue, it follows that the league is poised to soar past a $92 million cap. (jan22)

17. For most fantasy leagues, the bit about the cap (above) won't create a huge impact. Maybe your stack of good players on a good team can all stick together a little longer as there's enough pie to go around for all, but really there isn't much in the way of repercussions.

However, for salary cap leagues, this is massive news. Now, if you were paying attention over the last year or two as we excited the flat cap era, you stocked up on a few longer-term deals like Tage Thompson, Jack Hughes, and others signed to reasonable cap hits now, but still with seven years or so of term left. These are the deals that become similar to what Brad Marchand and Nathan MacKinnon's deals were a few years ago. Those are the ones that help you win leagues, as everyone of their quality starts making one and a half times what they are. Do yourself a favour and buy in on some of those longer-term deals today.(jan22)

18. Shea Theodore assisted on all four Vegas goals last Monday against St. Louis. That gave Theodore 38 assists on the season in his 46^th game, tying his career-high for assists in a season (he had 38 in 78 games back in 2021-22). He is currently on pace for 75 points. (jan21)

19. Watching Lane Hutson play, seeing elite offensive creativity and deft movements, you can only expect he’ll be one of the highest-scoring blueliners over the next decade. I know Macklin Celebrini is having an incredible year in San Jose and is also deserving of the Calder, but Hutson remains my pick as a biased Habs fan. (jan20)

20. Based on what the hockey insiders are saying, the Canucks seem to have decided to trade J.T. Miller as opposed to Elias Pettersson. According to Elliotte Friedman, the Canucks were working on a Miller trade with the Rangers, but it fell apart. Now we wait and see if a trade happens soon. From what I understand, New Jersey and Dallas have also been in the Miller mix. (jan19)

21. Seth Jones is another name that is floating around the trade rumor mill recently. I’m sure the Blackhawks would have moved on from Jones by now if not for his $9.5 million cap hit that will last for five more seasons after this one. Perhaps the Hawks are considering retaining salary in any trade, although one would have to assume that the team will be in some sort of competitive window by then.

If Jones is in fact traded, he likely wouldn’t log the 24-26 minutes that he has with Chicago in his four seasons there, which would hurt his counting stats. As well, he may not be featured on another team’s top power play. However, that could be offset by more 5-on-5 offense that he could gain from playing on a higher-scoring team. (jan19)

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Be sure to also grab your copy of the 2024 Dobber Fantasy Hockey Prospects Report!

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Have a good week, folks!

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