21 Fantasy Hockey Rambles

Dobber Sports

2025-06-29

Every Sunday, we share 21 Fantasy Rambles from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s 'Daily Ramblings'.

Writers/Editors: Ian Gooding, Michael Clifford, Alexander MacLean, Brennan Des, and Dobber

1. Winners of the draft lottery, the New York Islanders selected defenseman Matthew Schaefer of the OHL’s Erie Otters with the first overall pick. Schaefer has all of the tools to be a star NHL defenseman, including skating, scoring upside, ability to control play, defensive acumen, character, and leadership. He has also dealt with adversity, having missed significant time after breaking his collarbone at the World Juniors. Schaefer also lost his mother to breast cancer in February 2024. You have to feel happy for this young man.

Schaefer’s upside comparable in the Fantasy Prospects Report is Miro Heiskanen, which seems fair. Heiskanen is as effective a two-way defenseman as they come, but he is not Cale Makar or Quinn Hughes when it comes to offensive upside. With the spotlight on Schaefer as he is drafted and asked to fill the shoes of Noah Dobson, that’s something to keep in mind. There is a separation between top fantasy defensemen and top overall defensemen as described by the many hockey analysts out there. That’s not to suggest at all that Schaefer will be a bust – it’s merely a comparison. (june27)

2. As the buzz had increased over the past day or two, the Islanders decided to part ways with Dobson a few hours before the start of the draft. The Canadiens acquired Dobson in a sign-and-trade, with Dobson receiving an eight-year contract extension with a $9.5 million AAV. In return, the Isles receive Emil Heineman and the 16th and 17th overall picks (Victor Eklund and Kashawn Aitcheson, respectively) from Friday’s draft. Quite a haul of prospects for the Isles.

Dobson regressed from a 70-point season in 2023-24 to just 39 points (in 71 games) this past season, but his offensive upside is clearly there. His defensive skills are perhaps debatable, which is perhaps why the Islanders were hesitant to keep him at the extension that he wanted. One key question is how the trade affects his fantasy value, as Calder Trophy winner Lane Hutson seems to have cemented himself on the top power play. Perhaps Montreal could opt for a duo here? Find out what Mike Clifford thinks will happen in the official Fantasy Take.

Trading Dobson could clear the way for Schaefer to make the roster sooner rather than later. A defenseman jumping straight to the NHL in his draft year is rare, and Schaefer will only turn 18 in early September. It's probably easier to wait until contracts are signed to determine whether Schaefer could fit in for the coming season. As of now, Alexander Romanov and Scott Perunovich are unsigned RFAs, while Tony DeAngelo and Mike Reilly are unsigned UFAs. (june27)

Michael Clifford had a breakdown of the Dobson trade here.

3. For more analysis on the 2025 draft, check out our current and upcoming submissions of The Journey from Puneet Sharma, while Michael Clifford had some pre-draft thoughts here.

Also, don’t forget to purchase your copy of the Prospects Report. You’ll find plenty of 2025 NHL Draft coverage in there, including player profiles, top 64 chart, mock draft, and various top-10 lists for fantasy categories. This resource is useful because you don’t want to be the person in your draft who simply defaults to the next-highest-drafted player when it’s your turn. It’s better to look for the players who will actually be difference-makers in fantasy leagues, according to our scouting staff. I will certainly be using this for my upcoming league entry draft, where I have the 10th, 29th, and 49th picks. (june27)

4. Onetime Islander John Tavares has signed a four-year extension with a $4.38 million AAV to remain in Toronto. That’s a very team-friendly cap hit, although it comes as no surprise that Tavares wanted to re-sign with his hometown Maple Leafs. After all, he chose the Leafs for a seven-year contract as a free agent in 2018 (hard to believe it was that long ago), so he might remain a Leaf for the rest of his career. The Leafs, of course, are still in an incomplete state, as Mitch Marner is expected to leave via free agency, and it is unknown how the Leafs would fill that void.

At age 34, Tavares was able to maintain a near point-per-game pace in 2024-25 (74 points in 75 games), which is actually slightly above his career point pace of 0.94 PTS/GP. Tavares should continue to be an important part of the Leafs’ top 6 and top power play through much of the deal, although a few red flags beyond age suggest possible regression in 2025-26. Those include a 19.1 SH%, an 11.4% 5-on-5 SH%, and a 1045 PDO. Despite that, I’m not concerned about the contract aging poorly for the Leafs, as many star players are continuing to make major contributions well into their 30s. (june27)

5. Sam Bennett is not fricking leaving Florida. The Panthers signed the Conn Smythe Trophy winner to an eight-year extension worth $64 million – a cap hit of $8 million. There were rumblings that Bennett would earn as much as $10 million per season based on his playoff performance, but he simply does not score enough to justify that, no matter the intangibles he brings. Although Bennett’s career high in goals is 28, his 15 goals led all players in the 2024-25 playoffs.

Bennett has improved from a 25-to-30-point scorer in Calgary to a 40-to-50-point range in Florida, adding more shots and hits to his toolkit while being a major impact player in the Panthers’ three consecutive runs to the Stanley Cup Final. In cap leagues, he receives a substantial raise from $4.425 million to $8 million, which decreases his value in pure point salary cap leagues. In my multicategory cap league, I’m hanging on to Bennett, unless someone makes me an offer I can’t refuse. Bennett is currently listed in the Top 100 Roto Rankings for his ability to contribute in many categories.

Now the plot thickens as to whether the Panthers can find a way to re-sign either Brad Marchand or Aaron Ekblad. (june27)

6. The Blue Jackets and Avalanche made a swap on Friday afternoon. After reportedly losing out on Dobson, the Jackets turned their attention to Charlie Coyle and Miles Wood, acquiring them from the Avs for prospect Gavin Brindley, a 2027 second-round pick and a 2025 third-round selection.

Coyle, the main piece in the deal, fell from 60 points in 2023-24 with the Bruins to just 35 points in 83 games (!) split between the Bruins and Avalanche. Expect him to fill a middle-six role with the Jackets. Wood is a banger who was held to just eight points in 37 games after consistently averaging between 20-30 points per season. In his first AHL season, Brindley struggled a bit with just six goals and 17 points in 52 games, so he will look to get back on track with an organization that is lean on legitimate prospects. (june27)

7. The Sabres signed Jack Quinn to a two-year contract with a $3.375 million AAV. The 23-year-old Quinn scored a career-high 39 points in 74 games this past season, yet there is still the feeling that Quinn can produce at a much higher level, especially since he has racked up big scoring numbers in both the OHL and AHL. Helping his cause in the NHL, Quinn been sheltered to play offensive minutes (55.52 OZ% in 2024-25), while his power-play time has gradually increased in each of his three NHL seasons. Quinn can also be streaky, as evidenced by his numbers by quarter:

Qtr     GP      G         A         PTS       
1         21       1         4         5           
2         15       7         5         12         
3         17       2         5         7           
4         21       5         10       15          

A bridge deal shows that the Sabres aren’t that confident in Quinn, and perhaps his defensive play factors into that. Yet if Quinn breaks out during his two-year contract, the Sabres could be forced to pay a lot more or lose him. Dobber discussed Quinn in one of his recent video hits. (june27)

8. The Edmonton Oilers have signed forward Trent Frederic to an eight-year contract with an AAV of $3.85 million. What stands out about this contract is the term, as 1) deals this long are usually reserved for more impactful players, and 2) eight-year deals will be disappearing with the new CBA (new max will be seven years). The Oilers obviously like what they see in the 27-year-old power forward, as he will bring an element of snarl that becomes increasingly important in the playoffs.

Due to injury, Frederic played in just a single regular-season game for the Oilers after being acquired from Boston. In 22 playoff games, Frederic scored a goal and added three assists while mainly playing in the bottom six with 11 minutes of icetime. If you’re looking for reasons to justify the eight-year contract, they are not that easy to find. Frederic averaged nearly four hits per game during the playoffs and nearly three hits per game during the regular season over the past two seasons. He was also a 40-point scorer in 2023-24, so he has a bit of offensive upside. Obviously, his value will be higher in bangers leagues than in pure points leagues. (june27)

9. JJ Peterka was traded from Buffalo to Utah overnight Thursday in exchange for Michael Kesselring and Josh Doan. Michael Clifford had a full breakdown of that trade here. (june27)

10. Jamie Benn was extended by the Dallas Stars on a one-year deal at $1M AAV with a lot of bonuses, according to Darren Dreger of TSN. Benn had 16 goals and 33 assists in 2024-25, his lowest marks for any season where he's played at least 70 games. Even with Dallas currently having just 10 forwards signed, Benn is no higher than a third-liner, which means around 15 minutes a game. Turning 36 years old in July, Benn shouldn’t be expected for more than 20 goals or 50 points at this stage of his career. (june27)

11. The Columbus Blue Jackets traded goalie Daniil Tarasov to the Florida Panthers for a fifth-round pick in 2025. Tarasov is a 26-year-old netminder with 61 starts in the NHL and an .898 career save percentage. Vitek Vanecek was Florida’s backup goalie down the stretch in 2024-25 but is an unrestricted free agent. Tarasov is a restricted free agent and Evolving Hockey has contract projections for both goalies being for one year, and Tarasov being $300K cheaper.

Tarasov looks like he’ll be Sergei Bobrovsky‘s backup but Bob has just one year left on his deal, turns 37 years old in September, and with playoffs included has the second-most starts in the NHL over the last three years (226). If Tarasov can be a competent backup, he may be looking at a career-high in starts (he had 23 in 2023-24). They are clearly hoping that Bobrovsky can mentor Tarasov as the latter becomes the next franchise goalie. There are a lot of bridges to cross before we get to that point, but Tarasov is in a better situation now than he’s ever been in.

This trade clearly makes Jet Greaves, at worst, the 1B to Elvis Merzlikins‘ 1A in Columbus, and he may even just be the outright starter for October. (june27)

12. The Edmonton Oilers have traded winger Evander Kane to the Vancouver Canucks in exchange for a fourth-round pick. Alex had his breakdown of the trade here.

This seems as if it may be insurance for Vancouver in the event that Brock Boeser signs elsewhere. If that is indeed the case, Kane has a path to top-6 and top PP minutes with the Canucks in 2025-26. That would be pretty valuable for fantasy, he’d be in a contract year, and he’d finally be healthy for the regular season for the first time in year. For now, this is a situation to monitor because my instinct is he’ll be undervalued in drafts come September. (june26)

13. Earlier this month, I went division by division, team by team, to see where they can improve in the offseason and help us fantasy owners:

That is each NHL team, but what about fantasy managers? On Tuesday, I went over a few players who had breakout seasons and what individual owners should do about those players in keeper/dynasty leagues. Today, we’re going in the other direction and looking at those with down years. Data is from Evolving Hockey and Frozen Tools unless otherwise indicated. For example: 

14. Elias Pettersson (Vancouver Canucks)

In the 2024 offseason, we found out that Pettersson played the last few months of the 2023-24 season with knee tendinitis. That helped explain why he had 64 points in 49 games to start that season and finished with 31 points in the next 46 games including playoffs. He also stated in that article that he had to “train around [the] knee injury]” in the offseason, and that it was still bothering him going into training camp for the 2024-25 season. That was a huge red flag, and it’s pretty obvious it affected him all year again (team off-ice issues aside): I checked out his tracking numbers from NHL Edge, focusing on top skating speed and speed bursts and there was a drastic change in his skating metrics (see here).

Those factors really put fantasy managers in a tough spot. If this is a worst-case scenario and it’s a knee issue that doesn’t go away, Pettersson may never reclaim the production levels he had a couple years ago. If this is something they can fix over the summer, then he represents a very good buy-low opportunity for fantasy managers. The problem is that we have no idea if it’s going to persist and leave him as a 20-goal, 60-point option, get modestly better to allow him to be a 30-goal, 75-point guy, or go away completely and get him back to being a 35-goal, 90-point player.

📢 advertisement:

If I had Pettersson on a keeper roster (I don’t), and I can flip him for a top-50 player like Sebastian Aho or Jake Guentzel, I would be pretty tempted to do that. If the best I could do is a fringe top-100 player like Bo Horvat or Matty Beniers, I would probably hold and hope for the best. Everything depends on the return available, but this is a very volatile situation with no clear, good answer. (june26)

15. Congrats to this year’s class of HHOF inductees:

Jennifer Botterill
Zdeno Chara
Brianna Decker
Duncan Keith
Alexander Mogilny
Joe Thornton
Builder: Jack Parker
Builder: Daniele Sauvageau

I really can’t believe that Alexander Mogilny finally made it. I had a bit of a shocked yell when I saw that the Hall finally got it right and inducted the pioneer human and all-star player. A well-deserved recognition a long time in the making.

The other three of the Men’s inductees were fantasy staples at the top of drafts for years, and even valuable in the right spots as streamers later into their careers. I’m pretty sure Duncan Keith and Joe Thornton helped me to a few fantasy titles over the years. I’m not sure that I really rostered Zdeno Chara as much, but he was no less valuable as a player, with a sizeable presence on the ice that wasn’t just because of his height.

Jennifer Botterill (who, like Mogilny, should have been inducted years ago) and Breanna Decker are excellent nominees on the women’s side as well. Between the Canadian (Botterill) and the American (Decker) they have four Olympic gold medals, and an additional 16 gold and silver medals from the World Championships. Two of the most individually decorated and respected players out there.

Stick taps to all the players for some excellent careers.  

I don’t know much about the builders Jack Parker and Daniele Sauvageau, so I won’t take up more time on HHOF discourse. (june25)

16. Around this time of year I like to drop my fantasy draft rankings for the new crop of draftees, with it being early enough now that my list changes slightly by the time our draft rolls around on July 15th, but early enough that it is still relevant for most of your drafting, including those of you who are nuts enough to do it before the NHL draft, where values are due to shift, and we get a chance to see who the NHL teams cause to be risers and fallers. Here’s the top-15 of my fantasy rankings this year, as that is the bulk of those who I see as fantasy relevant this year, and after that it looks like a multi-year wait just to see if the player is on track with their upside of being a middle-six player four years from then. In other words, I’m not against moving picks in the 20s this year for established prospects or a similar selection next year, and hoping the future crop is deeper (though it may look like it at this point, it’s a little early to be able to tell).

I rank my list based on fantasy upside, and usually slotting Dmen further back than they would go on NHL lists and in the NHL drafts, because the upside is so much more limited, the timelines are longer, and the busts are worse. Aside from that, there’s a mix or risk vs floor, and different styles of players, generally congealed from what I have read and learned from my preferred online sources. (june25)

17. My tiers for this year’s draft would look something like: 1-2, 3-7, 8-9, 10-15, and then blowing things wide open from there.

Let’s get to it:

> 1. Michael Misa, C
The most recent exceptional status player from the CHL had a historic scoring season and looks to be the surest thing as a fantasy asset.

> 2. Matthew Schaefer, D
The top defenceman in this draft by a mile, and a high upside for fantasy relevance. He isn’t #1 for me though because I feel like there’s a higher likelihood of Schaefer’s prime being a 40-point defenceman versus Misa being anything less than a 60-point forward. They’re generally interchangeable at the top of any list though based on personal preference.

> 3. James Hagens, C
Whether it’s stubbornness, or it’s just that the scouts I trust more as picking him apart less than others, Hagens hasn’t fallen down my board as much as he has for some. I do still think he has the second-highest upside as a forward in this draft, but the floor is as low as any of the next handful of names. (june25)

[Follow the link for more…]

18. After months (years?) of speculation, the Anaheim Ducks traded forward Trevor Zegras to the Philadelphia Flyers. Zegras put up back-to-back 23-goal, 60-plus-point seasons at 20 and 21 years old before injuries caught up and limited him to just 88 games in the last two years. He gets a fresh start in Philadelphia, and there’s a certain winger whose last name rhymes with Pitchkov that is probably happy to see another skilled forward added to the roster. (june24)

Brennan had his take on the trade here.

19. The Boston Bruins extended defenceman Mason Lohrei for two years with an average annual value of $3.2-million per season. Lohrei had 33 points in 77 games last season and had a 30-game stretch playing well over 20 minutes a night due to injuries on the blue line. With Charlie McAvoy and Hampus Lindholm healthy, it’s a question if Lohrei can earn too much more ice time than he did in 2024-25, so there are still big question marks around his fantasy value. (june24)

20. In today’s Ramblings we’ll review a couple of playoff storylines before discussing the fantasy outlook of some pending UFAs. Let’s get right into it!

Big PP Nick

Which player enjoyed the highest share of his team’s power-play time this postseason? Historically, the safe answer to that question would be Alex Ovechkin, but this year, it was none other than slick Nick Suzuki. Montreal’s captain led the league with a monstrous 97.3% share of the Canadiens’ postseason PP time. That might not seem like a big deal considering the Habs only played five playoff games, but it was actually an extension of a trend we saw late in the regular season. From March 6th to April 17th, a span of 21 games, Suzuki saw 96.3% of his team’s total PP time – Ovi was the only player in the league with a bigger proportion (99.2%).

With all this extra opportunity, is Suzuki’s power-play production set to skyrocket next year? Unfortunately, it’s not that simple. The reason Suzuki started double shifting on the power play in early March is mostly because Kirby Dach, who saw time on both PP1 and PP2, got injured in late February. Dach’s expected to be ready for the 2025-26 campaign, so there shouldn’t be as much of a need for Suzuki to double shift on the power play next year. With Ivan Demidov flaunting his power-play prowess this postseason, the Habs should have 10 players capable of managing PP duties right now. Lane Hutson, Cole Caufield, Juraj Slafkovsky, Demidov and Suzuki as a potential PP1, and then Brendan Gallagher, Patrik Laine, Alex Newhook, Mike Matheson and Dach on PP2. Of course, if one of those players gets injured, don’t be surprised to see Suzuki double shifted again. He’s such a smart player, coach Martin St. Louis can trust him with any assignment, and that leads to unique opportunities like this one. (june23)

21. RNH’s Resurgence

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins entered the 2024-25 campaign with an impressive floor of 65 points, at least that’s the pace he posted in each of the last three years. Unfortunately, he couldn’t repeat that feat and his offense took a nosedive this past regular season, where he posted a mediocre 52-point pace. That’s not the kind of output you expect from a player skating beside Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl on the power play. Fortunately, RNH bounced back in the postseason, racking up 20 points over 22 appearances. Those numbers become all the more impressive when you consider he was playing with a broken hand in the Stanley Cup Final. Now, since fantasy leagues typically focus on regular-season production, there’s a good chance RNH flies under the radar due to last year’s poor production before the playoffs, and that might allow you to snag him at a discounted price. Let’s just hope he didn’t extend his injury recovery time too much by playing through that broken hand. (june23)

[Follow the link for more…]

Have a good week, folks!

Thanks for continuing to support the website and if you’re bored and need a fantasy hockey fix visit the gang in the forum here.

Leave A Comment

UPCOMING GAMES

Oct 07 - 17:10 FLA vs CHI
Oct 07 - 20:10 NYR vs PIT
Oct 07 - 22:10 L.A vs COL

Starting Goalies

Top Skater Views

  Players Team
LOGAN COOLEY UTA
SAM RINZEL CHI
JAMES HAGENS BOS
ZACH BENSON BUF
KAAPO KAKKO SEA

Top Goalie Profile Views

  Players Team
ILYA SOROKIN NYI
TY YOUNG VAN
FILIP GUSTAVSSON MIN
JESPER WALLSTEDT MIN
ARTUR AKHTYAMOV TOR

LINE COMBOS

  Frequency CHI Players
24.2 ILYA MIKHEYEV RYAN DONATO CONNOR BEDARD
21.0 TEUVO TERAVAINEN FRANK NAZAR TYLER BERTUZZI
21.0 JOE VELENO LANDON SLAGGERT LUKAS REICHEL

DobberHockey Podcasts

Fantasy Hockey Life: Ottawa Senators with Alex Adams

Alex Adams of Sportsnet is here to report on the Ottawa Senators. Jesse and Victor interview Alex about returning pros Tim Stutzle, Drake Batherson, Brady Tkachuk, Dylan Cozens, Claude Giroux, Shane Pinto, Ridly Greig, Fabian Zetterlund, Jake Sanderson, Thomas Chabot, Jordan Spence, Linus Ullmark, and Leevi Meralainen. In Cat’s Instincts, Cat Silverman of InGoal mag […]

Fantasy Hockey Life: Washington Capitals Preview with Dan Holmi of Locked on Caps

Dan Holmi is here to report on the Washington Capitals. Jesse and Victor interview Dan about returning pros Alex Ovechkin, Dylan Strome, Aliaksei Protas, Pierre-Luc Dubois, Tom Wilson, Connor McMichael, Ryan Leonard, John Carlson, Jakob Chychrun, Rasmus Sandin, Logan Thompson, and Charlie Lindgren. In Cat’s Instincts, Cat Silverman of InGoal mag breaks down Garin Bjorklund.  […]

Fantasy Hockey Life: Stefan Rosner on the New York Islanders

Stefan Rosner is here to report on the New York Islanders. Jesse and Victor interview Stefan Rosner about returning pros Bo Horvat, Anders Lee, Mathew Barzal, Simon Holmstrom, JG Pageau, Maxim Tsyplakov, Calum Ritchie, Noah Dobson, Ryan Pulock, Alexander Romanov, Scott Perunovich, and Ilya Sorokin. In Cat’s Instincts, Cat Silverman of InGoal mag breaks down […]

FIND US ON FACEBOOK

📢 advertisement: