With the season wrapping up I wanted to take a moment for what has become an annual tradition over here on Frozen Tools Forensics. We are using our regular season stats to look forward to playoff leagues and see if we can predict some unexpected playoff heroes. This all started back when I wrote the Wild West column. I saw a column from Rick Roos on playoff heroes. He looked at players who were performing better in the playoffs than in their previous regular season and attempted to figure out if it was predictive of future performance. I decided to go the other way to look at if there was anything in the season data that we could use to predict which players might be poised to be this year's unexpected playoff hero for our playoff pools. It has been going on for several years now, and while certainty isn't a fool-proof method, it does give better results than picking a low rostered second- or third-line player at random – but more on the criteria in a minute.

First up, why do we care? Well in most playoff pools managers tend to go deep on a couple of teams that they think will go further in the playoffs, the rationale being a second/third line guy on a team that plays 25 games is going to be better than a top line guy that plays only five. Having a method to prioritize those middle six skaters and finding the diamond in the rough on your selected teams is important.

The below paragraph is an excerpt from that original article and basically sums up what all of the playoff heroes had in common.

"The player was averaging between .4 and .7 points per game, was shooting around two shots a game, getting somewhere between 1:00 and 2:15 minutes on the power play, and skating between 13:00 and 17:00 minutes of total time on ice. The data points can fluctuate slightly depending on the situation, and players might miss one point by a little, but this is the general target. Perhaps the single most important factor though is that they play for a team that is likely to get at least 17 games during the playoffs."

The idea is that an unexpected hero is a player that is already doing a little something with the opportunity they are being given (to demonstrate some competence, value in the coach's eyes, etc.) but has room for growth. That growth could be either in deployment (increases in power-play time, or total time on ice), or in favorable spikes of luck (team/personal shooting percentage, IPP etc.). A player who is already spiking a high shooting percentage or getting massive deployment isn't likely to see a sudden, relatively unanticipated increase in value.

The most important factor for overall value though is that the player plays for a team that at least reaches the conference finals. Not only does that idea follow the "more games equals more points idea", but it also gives more opportunities for that breakout which maybe doesn't come until round two. So, first things first, pick the teams you think are going to make the conference finals and use that to prioritize the list below.

The full list this year comprises 22 players this year so picking your teams is an important exercise. For the purposes of this article, I have looked at various playoff projections and selected the teams who consistently have over a 20% chance of making it to the third round across multiple prediction sites. That brings our total down to nine.

To get started I am going to address several of the players at once. Jackson Blake, Logan Stankoven, and Taylor Hall have been playing together at even strength with some combination of them on the second power-play as well. The last few games are not a consistent representation of deployment given how many players have been rested for the playoffs recently. Each of them are potentially interesting options, but if I am picking the top candidate here, I am going with Stankoven. Of the three he has the most to gain: He is shooting twice per game, with the lowest shooting percentage. While they are all on a bit of a run right now, Stankoven is the hottest with 11 points in his last eight games. It is hard to read too much into the game log as the lineup has been in flux, but his point production actually started at the end of March. Going back a little bit further, he also has 17 points in his last 20 games (a 70-point pace), and since about March 18th has upped his shot rates to almost three per game. Ultimately all three are looking like good bets for a playoff run, but I would have Stankoven first.

Moving on we have another group of players in Zach Benson, Jack Quinn, and Jiri Kulich, all on Buffalo. While we were slightly splitting hairs in Carolina, I do think there is a clear top choice here in Jack Quinn. He has the highest shot rates, with a low shooting percentage, but more importantly towards the end of the season he has been getting opportunities on the top power-play. Like with Carolina the roster has been all over the place, but even prior to that Quinn was getting some looks. With the roster juggling Benson has also gotten some turns on the top power-play and that makes him interesting as well. Kulich has only played 12 games in the 25-26 season, and has been determined out for the season. That doesn't mean he can't come back for the playoffs at some point, but I think he can be safely ignored at this stage.

That brings us to Mavrik Bourque. He was relatively quiet to start the season but has actually had a pretty decent second half. He has been on a 63-point pace since about January 18th. Unsurprisingly, he has spent most of that time period on a line with Jason Robertson and Wyatt Johnston. He has had a few cold stretches in there though going six games without a point in early April and four games in mid March. He did have 11 points in 10 games from the end of January to the beginning of March though. With this pick you have a player who really needs that top exposure. Much of that time Mikko Rantanen was also out of the lineup. Once Rantanen returned he was playing with Matt Duchene and Robertson – still not a terrible place to be. Overall, he makes for an interesting candidate, but will be relying on limited line juggling to happen during the playoff run.

One complication could be Michael Bunting. He has only recently returned to a third line role for Dallas. His current deployment makes Bourque clearly the better choice, but he seems a likely candidate to be shifted around the lineup if Dallas needs to shake things up.

And finally, Jack Roslovic. With Leon Draisaitl and Zach Hyman out of the lineup, Roslovic has spent time on the fourth line or on the second line with Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. He also got a turn on the top power-play recently when others were out resting. Roslovic is definitely a depth piece and has clearly been passed over on the depth chart by guys like Isaac Howard, who is getting top deployment with Connor McDavid. But we only have to remember back to October and November to see a run of 17 points in 16 games the last time he got a prolonged opportunity to play with the big guns in Edmonton.

For the sake of completion here is the remaining list: