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In my last few Ramblings, we have been comparing the fantasy production of some top performers to see whom they compared to from recent seasons, and if we can draw any kind of conclusions from that comparison. We had:

• Some top forward performers in Macklin Celebrini, Nick Suzuki, Vincent Trocheck, Sidney Crosby, and Leon Draisaitl.
• Some top defence performers in Cale Makar, Darren Raddysh, Charlie McAvoy, Moritz Seider, Jakob Chychrun, and Roman Josi.
• Some young forwards including Wyatt Johnston, Juraj Slafkovsky, Lucas Raymond, Beckett Sennecke, and Logan Cooley.

To round out the quartet of Ramblings, we are moving to the blue line to look at some top performers among young blue liners and their comparable counterparts.

As outlined in the other Ramblings, this is how the comparisons are made:

1. We are calculating per-game production in goals, assists, power-play points, shots, hits, blocks, and penalty minutes relative to that player's position, so defencemen are compared to other defencemen and forwards are excluded.
2. We figure out the 'replacement level' values. In this case, they are the average per-game production rates for roughly the 85^th-most valuable defenceman in this kind of fantasy setup.
3. We compare each defenceman's per-game production in each stat to that 'replacement level' value to find who had what kind of fantasy value in each stat, in each season, on a per game basis.

All this is explained with a bit more depth here.

Data is from Evolving Hockey and Natural Stat Trick, and we are only considering blue liners with at least 41 games played in a season.

Matthew Schaefer (2025-26) and Jakob Chychrun (2024-25)

This is where comparisons can be both illuminating and misleading. Chychrun's performance in this setup with these replacement-level calculations made him the 14^th-most valuable blue liner in 2024-25; Schaefer was 17^th in 2025-26. Both provided more value through their goal scoring than their assists, both provided good value through their shot rates, and neither was overly physical. That Schaefer gave us this kind of performance as an 18-year-old defenceman – and he doesn't turn 19 until September – is an incredible effort.

Despite those similarities, anyone who watches these two defencemen would not say they have similar play styles. Schaefer is already a dynamic skater who is in control of his team's offence, and while Chychrun has shades of that, they are shades and not full colours. Schaefer is just beginning to scratch the surface of what he's capable of doing while Chychrun, at that time, was 26 years old.

That does not mean the fantasy value comparison is not an apt comparison. What makes a defenceman a truly elite option is not only the skill he possesses, but the team that surrounds him. Cale Makar is a Norris Trophy-calibre defenceman every year, but what makes him an elite (or near-elite) fantasy defenceman every year is that the Colorado Avalanche have been a top-10 scoring team each of the last five seasons, top-5 in three of them, and the top team twice. Makar is a part of that, but so are (or were) Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen, Martin Necas, Artturi Lehkonen, Valeri Nichushkin, etc.

Therein lay the issue for Schaefer. His 2026-27 could see him take a leap in development, but if the New York Islanders finish as a bottom-10 scoring team again, he has a tough road to significantly increasing his fantasy value. Maybe he turns in an effort like Erik Karlsson did in 2022-23, but that is a very unlikely outcome. The team around Schaefer needs to get a lot better offensively for him to have a realistic chance at being a top-3 multi-cat defenceman.   

Lane Hutson (2025-26) and Adam Fox (2022-23)

This comparison helps highlight how changes in peripheral production over the last five seasons are important to keep in mind when comparing across seasons, which was something I discussed a couple of weeks ago in these Ramblings. Fox's 2022-23 season saw him post 1.94 shots per game whereas Hutson's 2025-26 season had him at 1.51. Despite that disparity, they had near-identical shot-per-game values relative to their position in their season.

This comparison should also help highlight what Hutson's upside really is. Looking at his season against Fox's 2022-23, Hutson had a slight edge in fantasy value for his goals, assists, blocks, and hits. That was Fox's age-24 season, and Hutson's was his age-21 season. That was also when the New York Rangers started nearing their end of their Stanley Cup window – the Montreal Canadiens are just opening theirs. Montreal finished seventh in goal scoring this past campaign. If they can improve a couple of roster spots, and get more growth from players like Ivan Demidov and Juraj Slafkovsky, it'll only help Hutson's fantasy upside.

Hutson has one glaring question for his fantasy value and that is the shot volume we discussed earlier. It isn't awful, but it's not high, and it's nowhere near a top-end mark. He doesn't need to shoot the puck like Roman Josi in his heyday, but even in a lower-shooting environment like the NHL is now, putting up around 1.5 shots per game is not a lot. Fox never really took another step in his shot volume, so Hutson needs to resemble what Quinn Hughes has done over the last few years, rather than Fox, for Hutson to have a real chance at being an elite multi-cat fantasy blue liner.   

Brock Faber (2025-26) and Thomas Chabot (2023-24)

This is kind of a fun duo to have lined up against each other because Faber was the Minnesota Wild's top guy for 2.5 seasons until Quinn Hughes showed up, much like Chabot was the top guy for the Ottawa Senators until Jake Sanderson took the reigns as the #1 defenceman. These are (or were) two defencemen at different times of their careers, too, as Faber just finished his age-23 season, which was his third full campaign. Chabot's 2023-24 season was his age-27 campaign and his seventh full year.

The other difference is who they play with. Faber has Hughes next to him, and Hughes is arguably the top offensive defenceman in the world. Chabot does not often play with Sanderson, and even if he did, Sanderson is not a Hughes-like offensive defenceman. When searching for fantasy value, we care about offensive upside, and playing next to Hughes is a huge step up from playing with Sanderson, let alone other options like Nick Jensen or Jordan Spence.

Having not started fantasy projections for 2026-27, Faber's fantasy value could best be described as High Floor, Low Ceiling. Playing 24-25 minutes a game, most of that next to Hughes, on a team with forwards like Kirill Kaprizov and Matt Boldy gives Faber a very good chance at scoring double-digit goals and posting 50, or even 60, points. But the lack of a top PP role means he's not going to threaten point-per-game status, which is the same problem Chabot has.

Brandt Clarke (2025-26) and Rasmus Andersson (2024-25)

This is an interesting comparison because, I would think, most serious fantasy players would say that Clarke has much more offensive potential than Andersson has ever had, and three of Andersson's last five seasons saw him post between 45-50 points. At the same time, the Los Angeles Kings have not finished inside the top-10 by goals scored in any of the last five seasons, and their 2025-26 campaign saw them finish 29^th. Even with a new coach in Peter Laviolette, if the Kings were to improve their goal scoring by 20%, they would be slightly better than average. There is a long way to go before Clarke is in an offensive environment conducive to him reaching his full fantasy potential.

In that sense, there are similarities between Clarke and Andersson. The latter spent most of the last four years on a Calgary Flames team that never finished in the top-half of the league by goal scoring per minute. He is now on a better Vegas Golden Knights team but is unlikely to earn a top PP role. Clarke should have first crack at a top PP role for the Kings at the start of the 2026-27 season, but if they don't see a massive offensive improvement, it's fair to wonder if Clarke can post a lot more than the 40 points he did last year. Maybe he gets to 50, but him turning in a Darren Raddysh-like leap in production is a longshot.

Luke Hughes (2025-26) and Vince Dunn (2021-22)

Here is a fun fact: using the measurements outlined at the top, there are 28 defencemen to have finished as a top-50 fantasy blue liner in each of the last three seasons. Hughes is one of those 28 defencemen, but none of his three seasons were inside the top-25. He has been consistently good but has yet to have one great year.

In a nice little quirk, Dunn is also one of those 28 defencemen. He did turn a top-10 season back in 2023-24, but that was a couple years after the season we used for the comparison in the graph. The good news for Hughes is that he just finished his age-22 season, which is three years earlier than Dunn's 2021-22 campaign. Following that season and across the three campaigns from 2022-2025, Dunn's 82-game averages were 15 goals and 46 assists. I suspect that fantasy managers would leap at the opportunity for Hughes to have a 15-goal, 61-point season next year, given his three-year averages are 8 goals and 47 points.

The New Jersey Devils finished 27^th in goal scoring last season. With all the talent on that team, they should be a lot better in 2026-27. It would take a big jump to be better than average, but there is enough skill to do it, and Hughes likely has the inside track to a top PP role after splitting some time with Dougie Hamilton. With Hughes cresting the 200-game plateau last year, heading into his fourth season, and looking at what Dunn did after a similar season in 2021-22, Hughes has an upward trajectory that could make him a good fantasy bargain at the draft table in September.