Capped: Evaluating the Contracts of John Carlson, Pavel Mintyukov, and Cole Perfetti

Andrew Santillo

2026-08-13

We’re getting closer to that time of year when commissioners everywhere are trying to herd cats and lock down a draft date. To those of you dealing with that annual challenge, I wish you the best of luck. Trust me, I’m sitting in that chair myself, and it’s a heavy burden.

While summer is still rolling along, we’re not quite ready to dive fully into this season’s salaries. Before we get there, I wanted to cover a few more notable extension signings from around the league. These are players whose new deals could have a meaningful impact on the fantasy landscape, making them worth a closer look before draft season arrives.

John Carlson (36, D) Signs a 2-Year Contract with the Tampa Bay Lightning

$8.5M AAV | $17M Total Value

Ah yes, Carolina Hurricanes legend, John Carlson. This is a funny contract for me to wrap my head around, but I think there's positives and negatives to consider.

Part of me is curious why at the $8.5M water mark, Lightning didn’t simply allocate that money to Darren Raddysh. My guess is that term was the sticking point. Still, when Lighting GM Julien BriseBois makes a move, I tend to just blindly agree that it's a smart one. Well, almost always. Outside of probably Tanner Jeannot, but hey, everyone gets one mulligan.  

The biggest concern with this deal is Carlson’s age. At 36, it’s fair to question how much longer he can perform at a high level. Then again, I’m also 36 and still think I have plenty of good years left, so maybe I’m biased. In all seriousness, Carlson looked excellent last season, particularly after making the move from Washington to Anaheim.

His impact on the Ducks’ power play was immediately noticeable. Anaheim had been searching for a true power-play quarterback for much of the season, and Carlson helped stabilize that role. In Tampa Bay, he could provide a similarly significant boost, especially if Victor Hedman misses time or is unable to remain fully healthy. Surrounded by the offensive talent on the Lightning’s top unit, Carlson should have every opportunity to produce.

From a fantasy perspective, that means plenty of opportunities to distribute the puck to reigning Hart Trophy winner Nikita Kucherov, who recorded 37 power-play points last season. Carlson could also find himself logging minutes alongside Jake Guentzel and, potentially, Brandon Hagel if Tampa finally commits to using him on the top power-play unit. Hagel has been a point-per-game player in each of the last two seasons despite inconsistent power-play deployment, and a larger role for him would only increase Carlson’s fantasy upside.

I understand why fantasy managers might hesitate to roster a 36-year-old defenseman, but Carlson’s previous $8M salary isn’t far off from his current cap hit, and the offensive production from the blue line could still be substantial. If he continues to command top power-play minutes in Tampa, there’s a real chance he outperforms expectations.

Pavel Mintyukov (22, D) Signs a 5-Year Contract with the Anaheim Ducks

$7.2M AAV | $36M Total Value

Let’s head back to Anaheim, where Pavel Mintyukov signed a five-year, $36 million contract. He’s a player who will carry more value in deeper fantasy formats, particularly on Fantrax, and the cap hit is worth discussing.

It may just be me, but if I’m choosing a left defenseman in Anaheim, I’d rather have Owen Zellweger at a lower AAV. In many ways, that’s a good summary of how I feel about the Ducks’ offseason as a whole. From a fantasy standpoint, I struggle to see Mintyukov’s point production climbing much beyond the low-to-mid 20s. That said, he provides plenty of value in peripherals, particularly blocks, and should be relied upon heavily by Anaheim this season.

If the Islanders didn’t have Matthew Schaefer anchoring their future on the blue line, I might give them the title of weakest defensive group in the league. For me, though, that distinction belongs to Anaheim. The lack of proven options on the back end could force Mintyukov into a much larger role than he handled last season. He averaged roughly 18:30 of ice time per game a year ago, but it’s not hard to envision that number jumping significantly this season, potentially into the 23- to 25-minute range if the Ducks lean on him as heavily as expected.

For fantasy managers, it’s a fairly expensive price tag if you’re primarily paying for blocks and projected ice time, but the reality of the situation right now. The upside is that Mintyukov is still a young defenseman with plenty of development ahead of him. However, in salary-cap formats, he could also become a player on the chopping block by midseason if you need to free up cap space and the offensive production doesn’t take the next step.

Cole Perfetti (24, RW/LW) Signs a 5-Year Contract with the Winnipeg Jets

$6M AAV | $30M Total Value

I love going back and looking at old draft classes, and the 2020 draft might be one that many of us have a blind spot for. Cole Perfetti was a player I was particularly high on that year, and while the foot speed and lack of physicality haven’t fully translated at the NHL level, he could be an intriguing buy-low candidate heading into this season.

There are flashes where you can still see the upside. Whether it’s a quick-release goal off a face-off or his unforgettable 1.6-second goal in the playoffs, Perfetti has shown he possesses legitimate offensive talent. At the same time, the skepticism is understandable. He’s only reached the 50-point mark once in his career, and that came during the only season in which he played all 82 games.

One reason I think there’s value here is that last season may have looked different had he not been dealing with the effects of the high ankle sprain he suffered during the preseason. Without that setback, I think there’s a reasonable chance he could have reached the 20-goal mark.

My biggest concern revolves around his even-strength deployment. Whether he’s centered by Vladislav Namestnikov or Adam Lowry, neither option is ideal from a fantasy perspective. That said, Perfetti surprisingly found chemistry with Jonathan Toews last season and produced well alongside him, which offers some encouragement.

The key to his fantasy value may be securing a permanent role on the Jets’ top power-play unit. Winnipeg has often alternated between Perfetti and Alex Iafallo in that spot, making it difficult for either player to establish consistency. If Perfetti can lock down that opportunity while maintaining a top-six role at even strength, there’s a realistic path for him to return to the 50-point range and potentially exceed expectations.

*Salary Cap data from PuckPedia.com  

For continued fantasy news and notes, follow me on Twitter @ndySanz.

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