Last week, these Ramblings went through some stats that have shown good correlation to future 5-on-5 point production among forwards. On Tuesday, a separate Ramblings reviewed specific players who saw sizeable increases in the stats that correlated well with future production, and why they will (or won't) see a points increase in 2026-27.

Today, we will go in the other direction to search for players who saw a decline in two key tracking stats, and why that is not a good sign for their output this coming season. The tracking stats are from All Three Zones, and they are:

• Chance Contributions – A player's individual scoring chances plus their assists on teammate scoring chances.
• Rush Contributions – Whenever a player takes a shot off the rush or assists on a teammate's shot off the rush.

This will go through what a player did in the combined seasons from 2023-2025, how it changed in 2025-26, is all at 5-on-5, and with 60-minute rates. We are using ice time limitations for the seasons which winds our sample down to 160 forwards.

In the following graphs, the red lines are the average change in the 60-minute rate of each stat. The yellow dots are forwards who had among the 25 largest declines in both stats, while the blue dots are forwards who were not in the bottom 25 in either or both areas.

Any other non-tracking player data is from Evolving Hockey. Positional designations are from Fantrax.

Kevin Fiala (Los Angeles Kings – LW)

In fairness to Fiala, he was injured during the Olympics and missed the rest of the regular season. There is the possibility that he would have otherwise posted a late-season surge and not been on this list, but he still had the largest decline in contributions off the rush of the 160 forwards in our sample:

Before he got hurt, Fiala had posted 1.41 points per 60 minutes at 5-on-5, the lowest rate of his career. Even worse is the fact that he posted 3.06 points per 60 minutes back in 2021-22, and that rate has declined every season since. His goal scoring remains strong, but his playmaking has fallen considerably, and that has put downward pressure on his assist totals: he posted 1.5 assists per 60 minutes in his first two years with the Kings, but in the last two years that has cratered to 0.54 assists per 60 minutes over the last two years, by far the worst rate among regular Los Angeles forwards. A drop in secondary assists is a big part of that, but even his primary assist rate is seventh out of nine regular Los Angeles attackers.

Dobber's 2026-27 Fantasy Hockey Guide has Fiala projected for 59 points in 75 games. My concern is whether he retains a top power-play role thanks to the additions of Artemi Panarin and Mats Zuccarello. Power play or not, I think the point-per-game seasons of 3-4 years ago are a thing of the past, and he's now a 60- to 70-point player.

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Tyler Toffoli (San Jose Sharks – RW)

From a current King to a former King, Toffoli turned 34 years old back in April and including playoff appearances, he has 1062 NHL games played. Father Time remains undefeated, and Toffoli saw the fifth-largest drop in chance contributions and second-largest drop in rush contributions in our sample:

The funny part is that with 2.04 points per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 in 2025-26, Toffoli's point rate exceeded his prior two-year average by about 6%. The wrinkle is that his rate of secondary assists (0.59) was considerably higher than his two-year average (0.24) and the second-highest rate of his career. Those types of assists have a big element of randomness, and if that was more in line with recent seasons, his points rate would have dropped by about 12%.

This feels like the end of the road for Toffoli. The Sharks added Kiefer Sherwood last year, signed Mason Marchment, drafted Ivar Stenberg, extended Collin Graf, and Igor Chernyshov should be a lineup regular. Considering Toffoli lost nearly two minutes per game last season and has all this competition, I am doubtful he can be much more than a 20-goal, 50-point player. Barring an unforeseen role increase or an absurd amount of good luck, a 30-goal season just isn't realistic anymore.

Pavel Buchnevich (St. Louis Blues – RW)

There are few players whose declines have been more alarming than Buchnevich's. In his first few years with St. Louis, in real hockey terms, he was easily a top-line winger in every sense of those words. Over the last couple of years, he has been easily a bottom 6 winger, if not a fourth line winger. That was mirrored by his production declines – 0.95 points per game across the 2021-2024 seasons to 0.67 the last two years – and mirrored by the tracking declines:

The interesting part to me is that Buchnevich had a near-identical drop in rush offence as (former) teammate Jordan Kyrou. When I see teammates who were previously productive have similar declines I always wonder about the team effect, but the difference here is Kyrou had a small increase in chance contributions (+0.36) while Buchnevich's decline significantly (-2.58). That makes me think the issue with Buchnevich isn't a team issue.  

Buchnevich has a long history of high levels of success, so it would not be surprising to see him turn his play around. But after two down years, both containing ice time declines, coupled with the rise of wingers like Dylan Holloway and Jimmy Snuggerud, this feels like a Kevin Fiala situation where the point-per-game years are long gone.

Owen Tippett (Philadelphia Flyers – LW)

It is hard to argue with Tippett's 2025-26 season as he tied a career-high in goals (28), posted his second-highest career point total (51), increased his shots per game by 11% from the year before, and landed a career-best 166 hits. That is despite finding himself in the bottom 25 of the two measures we've been using:

Overall, Tippett's 5-on-5 production saw a slight increase from the prior two seasons, but as we saw with Fiala earlier, this was all due to an increase in secondary assists. If those drop, his point rate in 2025-26 falls below that two-year average. Maybe he does it again, but I wouldn't bet on it.

The big concern for Tippett is the improvement of players around him. Travis Konecny is still a top-line winger for the Flyers, Tyson Foerster is healthy after missing 53 games, Matvei Michkov almost certainly rebounds, and the sky is the limit for Porter Martone. That is a lot of competition on the wings, which means less ice time for Tippett. He is still just 27 years old so there aren't any big age-related concerns, but the healthy and improving Flyers wingers provide a big roadblock to Tippett improving his production. The Dobber Guide has him projected for 27 goals and 50 assists, and that feels right to me.

Artemi Panarin (Los Angeles Kings – LW)

What stands out with Panarin's drop in contributions off the rush (-2.86) is that former teammates Will Cuylle (-3.19) and Alexis Lafreniere (-1.75) also saw sizeable drops. Either way, Panarin finds himself on this list for more than just his drop in rush offence:

Now that he's on a new team, we might think Panarin stands a good chance of improving his rush offence. On the other hand, of the 40 largest declines in rush offence among our 160 forwards, five of them played for the Los Angeles Kings: Fiala, Anze Kopitar, Phillip Danault, Trevor Moore, and Adrian Kempe. Add Panarin and that makes 6/40 of the largest rush offence declines came from one team.

The good news is that the Kings have a new coach in Peter Laviolette. In his two recent seasons with the Rangers (2023-24 and 2024-25), New York had the second-highest rush offence rate in the league. He and Panarin will be very familiar with each other, so it seems like this is a good opportunity for Panarin to improve those numbers, and hopefully his production with it. He turns 35 years old in October, however, the bottom falling out of his play is an ongoing concern. 

Pavel Dorofeyev (New York Rangers – RW)

From a former Ranger to a new Ranger, Dorofeyev signed a seven-year contract with New York, giving him an annual cap hit of $11-Million. That is a hefty paycheck and makes him the highest-paid skater on the team (goalie Igor Shesterkin is slightly higher). For that kind of payday, the Rangers need Dorofeyev to be a star player. He didn't exactly qualify for our bottom 25 list because his drop in rush offence missed the cutoff by about 4%, but it's close enough to warrant further investigation:

As with other players on this list, Dorofeyev's drop in rush offence (-2.69) was also found in teammates Tomas Hertl (-3.94), Reilly Smith (-2.51), and Jack Eichel (-1.87). Even if that is a team issue, Dorofeyev is now on a Rangers squad that saw the previously mentioned rush offence declines with Panarin, Lafrenière, and Cuylle. There is no guarantee that improves, and that Dorofeyev's chance contributions fell 27% makes things worse.

Last season, Dorofeyev had 37 goals and 64 points in 82 games. His projection in the Dobber Fantasy Guide for the 2026-27 campaign is for 33 goals and 64 points in 82 games. He is a player who gets about 40% of his point production from the power play anyway, so this is a case where the concerns around his 5-on-5 production, and fantasy value, aren't as severe as others on this list.