Welcome back to Puck Picks! Each Thursday, I break down some of my favorite NHL bets, explain the reasoning behind them, and track performance transparently. The goal of this column isn't just to share picks, but to help you recognize why certain spots have value so you can identify them throughout the season. I'll be tracking every pick transparently in this column, logging units won and lost as the year progresses.

We're off to a great start. In the first article of the season, we went 6-1 for +7.71 units, an 80.66% return. That brings the season record to 6-1 for +7.71 units.

Let's dive into tonight's picks:

Nathan MacKinnon 4+ Shots (-135, 1.1u), 5+ Shots (+160, 0.5u), 6+ Shots (+320, 0.2u), 7+ Shots (+650, 0.1u), 8+ Shots (+1300, 0.05u)

MacKinnon was held to just one shot on goal and no points last night, and I expect him to come out hungry. The process was still there, as he fired seven shot attempts toward the net. On that kind of volume, he usually gets four of them through.

The matchup sets up perfectly. Calgary is icing a lineup full of unproven prospects, and MacKinnon should have great looks all game. He cleared 4+ shots in all three meetings with the Flames last season.

The 4+ line is the core bet here, but this is a spot where the ladder makes sense. If MacKinnon gets back to his usual volume against a weak defensive group, the upside tiers offer a lot of value for small stakes.

Nazem Kadri 1+ Point (-130, 1.5u), Goal (+270, 0.5u)

Kadri's role has taken a big step forward. He was recently moved onto Colorado's top power-play unit and was promoted to the top line with MacKinnon in the third period last game. He's firmly solidified in the Avalanche's top six.

There's also a storyline worth noting. This is Kadri's first game back in the Saddledome since Colorado reacquired him at last season's trade deadline. He wasted no time against his former team, scoring twice in Colorado's 9-2 win, before missing the final two meetings with Calgary due to injury. With premium deployment, a weak opponent, and some extra motivation, -130 is a great price to pay. I also think that Colorado will have a little extra motivation to get him a goal tonight, so you might see some extra passes his way or him out there in an empty net situation, making his goal prop juicy at this price as well.

San Jose Sharks Under 25.5 Shots (-112, 1.5u)

The Sharks have looked terrible without Macklin Celebrini, and he's a game-time decision tonight. In their only game without him this season, San Jose managed just 13 shots against Dallas. Celebrini did take part in this morning's skate, but this is a lower-body issue he's been managing since training camp, so even if he plays, he may not be at full speed. Since we don't have an answer yet, I'm keeping this down to 1.5 units, but if Celebrini were confirmed out, this would be a 3 unit play.

St. Louis is an infamously low-event team, and that hasn't changed this year. The Blues have held Dallas to 25 shots and Chicago to just 21. Only Colorado has broken through, with 35. If Celebrini sits, San Jose doesn't have the firepower to be the next team to do it. Even if he plays, the Blues' structure makes 26 shots a tough number to reach.

St. Louis Blues Top Line, Straight Bets

Dylan Holloway 1+ Point (-139, 2u)

Jimmy Snuggerud 1+ Point (-139, 2u)

Robert Thomas 1+ Point (-167, 2u)

Normally I'd recommend building an SGP for three players on the same line, but sportsbooks have these three priced as extremely correlated. I couldn't find better than +110 for any two of them or +165 for all three, and neither is worth taking. If you can find a much better price than that, go for it. Otherwise, each of these is worth taking as a straight bet at these prices.

This line is ice cold to start the season, but it was one of the most elite lines in the league to finish last year. Holloway was moved off the line late in the last game, but he was reunited with Thomas and Snuggerud at practice yesterday. They're still generating chances, and against a weak San Jose team, the puck should find its way in.

Vancouver Canucks Under 23.5 Shots (-122, 2u)

This is one of my favorite plays of the night. Carolina is one of the best shot suppression teams in the league, finishing first last season by allowing just 23.8 shots per game. Meanwhile, Vancouver has struggled to generate anything so far this season. The Canucks have managed 23 shots and 22 playing Edmonton twice, 26 against Calgary, and just 20 against a strong defensive Vegas team.

They've cleared 23.5 just once in four games, and that came against a Calgary team that isn't in Carolina's class defensively. Against the Hurricanes, I expect Vancouver to spend most of the night in its own zone. Given that Kochetkov's save total is at 19.5, this line gives us an extra shot of value built in.

Dallas Stars @ Buffalo Sabres Under 55.5 Total Shots (-115, 2.74u)

Both teams have played in super low-event games so far this season. Buffalo's games have totaled 49, 43, and 48 shots, while Dallas's have totaled 49, 56, and 39. That's just one of six games clearing tonight's line.

It's tough to tell this early which team is the better defensive puck possession team, so rather than picking a side, we're attacking the joint total. Even if one team clears its individual shot total, it will likely come at the expense of the other team's possession.

Auston Matthews 1+ Point (-157, 2u)

Matthews erupted for four points last game after managing just one point through his first three games. There was also some interesting line mixing worth paying attention to. Toronto moved William Nylander up with Matthews at times, and the two looked dangerous every time they were on the ice together.

Vegas is a strong defensive team, but between that reputation and Matthews' quiet first three games, the market is overvaluing both. Vegas games haven't exactly been low scoring either, as the Golden Knights are averaging 4.25 goals per game with Jack Eichel already at 10 points through four games. This line should be closer to -200. At -157, we're getting a discount on one of the league's most dangerous scorers, coming off a breakout game with a potential boost in linemate quality.

Good luck if you're tailing! Results will be updated in next Thursday's column for full transparency. Please gamble responsibly and never wager more than you're willing to lose.

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