Saturday’s Game Picks: Home Cooking – November 18
Adam Mark
2017-11-18
I had a bit of a dip this week, particularly on Thursday with losses to Arizona, Colorado and Las Vegas, but was able to save the week by doubling down on both of Friday’s games and evening out the bank with wins from Columbus and Detroit. It’s not something I’d recommend if you’re just starting out, but if you’ve got some experience under your belt, taking swings like this can turn losing weeks into even ones.
This week I’m going with all favourites, and mostly home teams. Consistency is starting to form and I’m liking the way most of these teams have been playing as of late, Winnipeg and Philadelphia. The Colorado/Nashville game I could see being an upset, but I'm not buying what we saw from Colorado earlier in the week quite yet (maybe it’s because I’m slightly sour from letting Gabriel Landeskog go in one of my keepers for next to nothing).
On that note, who has been a pleasant surprise on your fantasy squad? In a salary keeper pool I’m in, I drafted Jaden Schwartz in the 7th round (83rd overall). I was expecting maybe 60 points out of him, but with the way he’s producing, he should top that number by at least 15 (barring injury of course). Another player that I spent the better part of 3 years getting was Anders Lee, who is also having himself a great season. Share your stories below!
On to today’s games:
Personal Record: 42-43 (49%)
Dobber Record: 18-18 (50%)
Calgary @ Philadelphia (1:00 PM EST)
Pick: Philadelphia– Home Team Victory – H
Confidence Level: 4/5
Arizona @ Ottawa (2:00 PM EST)
Pick: Ottawa – Home Team Victory – H
Confidence Level: 4/5
New Jersey @ Winnipeg (3:00 PM EST)
Pick: Winnipeg – Home Team Victory – V
Confidence Level: 3.5/5
New York @ Tampa Bay (7:00 PM EST)
Pick: Tampa Bay – Home Team Victory – H
Confidence Level: 4.5/5
Colorado @ Nashville (8:00 PM EST)
Pick: Nashville – Home Team Victory – H
Confidence Level: 4/5
St. Louis @ Vancouver (10:00 PM EST)
Pick: St. Louis – Visitor Team Victory – V
Confidence Level: 5/5
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why are you picking teams that are -200? Not much value at all there. If your gonna bet on Sens, preds or Tampa tonight it should be the underdog or don’t bet those games at all.
If your record is .500 on the year and most of your wins are huge favourites your money’s not gonna last very long.
Not trying to be a troll. I just rarely bet on teams that are favoured by more than -150-160.
Anything can happen in the NHL and the value just isn’t there on most nights.
I’d like to see more picks with better odds. Thanks
No worries, I welcome the feedback and criticism especially when my record this year isn’t anything to write home about.
As for the comments, everyone has their own system for picks; whether it be data, streaks, gut feelings/etc. I went over this in a few of my first columns for Dobber, in that I pay attention to the trends but ultimately go with my gut. Odds don’t typically scare me off too much, but -250 or more and I may just skip the game as opposed to betting the underdog solely for value.
That said, do what works for you, as it’s ultimately the best way to find out what you’re comfortable with. As for me, I don’t plan on changing my picks solely to spice things up and I do typically include an upset. Today it would have been Colorado today but I’m giving Rinne the edge.
Again, thanks for the comment. If you’d like more in depth analysis of why I pick each game (as I was doing last year), I do plan on bringing that back however my life outside dobberhockey currently doesn’t have much free time.
It’s still early so I wouldn’t be too down on your record so far. It will regress back to what you’re usually at. I would just suggest that you include how many units you are up or down.
I guess what I’m trying to say is that you’ve taken 3 teams that are favoured at -200.
Let’s say you bet $100 on each game.
So if all 3 teams win you’ve risked $300 to win $150.
If you go 2-1 you’ve risked the $300 to just win $50. I’d keep going but you get the point. I just don’t see the value there if you’re making a lot of picks with teams at -200.
I’m not saying just take the underdog cause of the value, just that you should just skip that game (like you said).
Anyways Cheers man. Appreciate your work. Look forward to all the articles on the site.