Ramblings: Notes from around the league; play-in predictions – July 23

Michael Clifford

2020-07-23

In what is very good news for Penguins fans and very bad news for Habs fans, Sidney Crosby returned to practice on Wednesday. He had missed the last few practices with an unknown injury, but it appears it wasn't severe at all. A welcome sight, for some.

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Something I missed and noticed yesterday: Ross Johnston is skating on what is effectively the NY Islanders' second line with Brock Nelson and Anthony Beauvillier. We'll see how long it lasts; my gut feeling is not very long.

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I know it doesn't mean a lot, but it's nice seeing Philly beat writers rave about Shayne Gostisbehere's play in practice. Yes, it's practice, but he had a really tough year, and appeared to be playing through some injury. The people who watch him every day would know his game best. Let's hope he can re-establish himself this postseason. That would be a big boost for the Flyers.

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In preparation for the playoffs – we're a little over a week away now – I wrote an entire Rambling series on the play-in teams. It was focused around how they fared over the course of the season, some relevant line combinations, production of top stars, and so on. It was just a way to get everyone caught up on what actually happened in the 2019-20 regular season, given it finished over four months ago now, and some things have been going on since. The last in the series is here, and it contains all the links for each play-in round.

After that, I reviewed the eight teams that are avoiding the play-in rounds with a bye. That was less of a season's round-up and more of a review of line combinations. They can be read here and here.

It has occurred to me that I haven't given official predictions. There has been discussion on who should win and what advantages each team has, but no outright prognostication. Let's do that today.

 

Chicago vs. Edmonton

As stated in the preview on this series, it's hard to fathom Edmonton being such a massive favourite. Chicago is not a good team, but Edmonton still has no bottom-6 and their goaltending is unreliable at best. Chicago even outscored Edmonton at even strength this year. If we want to just talk the post-Yamamoto era, when the team had two good scoring lines (December 31st onward), Chicago still outscored the Oilers at even strength, still out-shot them at even strength, and still had a higher expected goals rate. Offence isn't everything, but Chicago was a top team offensively down the stretch this year and the Oilers still employ Smith and Koskinen. This is far from a gimmie.

What should happen: Edmonton in four

What I'm saying will happen just to make a point about probability: Chicago in five

 

Nashville vs. Arizona

The Predators appear to have reassembled the JOFA line of Filip Forsberg, Viktor Arvidsson, and Ryan Johansen. That line, historically speaking, has been one of the best in the league: from 2016 through 2019, that line's expected goal share each year at 5-on-5 was 52.5 percent, 55.6 percent, and 58.6 percent. Their actual goal share in that span, per season, was 56 percent, 68.6 percent, and 56.1 percent. They were utterly dominant.

Their goal share in 2019-20 was real high – over 61 percent – but their expected goal share was an atrocious 43.4 percent. The 1054 PDO the line enjoyed was the reason for their success, and cannot expect to be replicated. If they want to be a dominant line again, they have to regain their magic of the last few years. It still leaves them with a good second scoring line, too.

Arizona should be feared because they have one of the best goaltending tandems in hockey, paired with a solid blue line. That could be a big issue for a Nashville team that struggled to score at times this year. It probably won't be enough to carry them, though.

Prediction: Nashville in three

 

Winnipeg vs. Calgary

I don't have a ton of faith in Calgary given how poorly they played this year compared to the quality of the roster. With that said, the only reason Winnipeg was in the playoffs to begin with was the play of Connor Hellebuyck. I still believe he should have been nominated for the Hart Trophy, seeing as how Winnipeg was one of the worst defensive teams in the NHL and yet in a playoff spot at the pause.

Anyway, what it comes down to is this: if Hellebuyck turns in 3-5 games like he did most of the regular season, Calgary's season is over 10 days after it began. If he doesn't, it'll be Winnipeg going home. I usually don't side with teams that rely on elite goaltending for success.

Prediction: Calgary in four

 

Vancouver vs. Minnesota

As has been the case for years now, Minnesota is a team that gives up a decent amount of shots – they were the middle of the league at 5-on-5 this year in this regard – but they do a great job limiting shots to the outside. If Vancouver can't get to the net, life is going to be very hard on them.

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On the flipside, the addition of Tyler Toffoli has given this Canucks team two true scoring lines. I think Minnesota's offence is a bit underrated, but it's really their defensive game that could give Vancouver fits, especially if Minnesota's great defensive third line can shutdown Pettersson's line. This is a bad matchup for Vancouver because the Wild don't have to use their best players to shutdown the best players from Vancouver, and if you have Eric Staal and Kevin Fiala skating around against Jay Beagle or Adam Gaudette, there are going to be issues.

This will probably anger Cam and Ian, but…

Prediction: Minnesota in five

 

Carolina vs NY Rangers

This could end up being the most entertaining series of the entire playoffs. If this matchup were taking place 3 ½ months ago, you know, when playoffs normally happen, I would be leaning the Rangers, if only because of the injuries to Carolina's blue line. But Dougie Hamilton hath returneth and Jake Gardiner has hopefully healed up his back a bit. Adding a Norris-calibre defenceman, and a guy who can at least succeed on the third pair when healthy, is a big boost for this roster.

The Rangers have a deeper team than they get credit for. They have two great scoring lines, have two good defence pairs, and solid goaltending. That's a lot more than most play-in teams can boast, and that's what makes this a nightmare for the Hurricanes.

Flip a coin.

Predictions: Carolina in five

 

Columbus at Toronto

What could make this a problem for Toronto is Columbus is very good defensively – fourth by expected goals against this year and fifth in actual goals against, all at 5-on-5 – and they were the least penalized team in the league. Not to mention all of the players Columbus will get back from injury. Of all the play-in matchups, this is one of the toughest Toronto could drawn.

Of course, Toronto will be getting guys like Ilya Mikheyev back, which is a boost in their own right. They still have a plethora of all-world offensive talent good enough to break down even the toughest team. The unstoppable force meets the immovable object, indeed.

Prediction: Toronto in five

 

Montreal at Pittsburgh

This is a variation of the Winnipeg-Calgary series. If Carey Price is the Carey Price of 2015, this is Montreal's series to lose. If he isn't, this could be an absolute pasting. Not going to waste much time here.

Prediction: Pittsburgh in four

 

Florida vs. NY Islanders

Here we get another matchup like the one between Columbus and Toronto, but less extreme. The Panthers were good offensively at 5-on-5, coming in fifth in goals per 60 minutes and tied for 18th by expected goals. The Islanders were good defensively at 5-on-5, coming in ninth by goals against/60 minutes and 15th by expected goals against. Meanwhile, the Islanders were bottom-10 in many key offensive categories while the Panthers were bottom-10 in many defensive categories.

In a series like that, much like Winnipeg, I don't like relying on the team that relies on goaltending. Now, the Islanders are much better defensively than the Jets, but they still don't score enough where they can outscore the opposition for an entire series. They still need their goaltenders to steal a game or two. That's the difference-maker for me.

Prediction: Panthers in five

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