Capped: Checking handedness for centres and production for wingers
Alexander MacLean
2020-08-20
Welcome back to another Thursday Capped article. I hope you've been finding some ways to enjoy yourself this summer. As you're reading this, I'm up at a cottage probably sitting on the beach, unable to check the hockey scores. There are pros and cons to having hockey during the cottage months.
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One of the discussions on the forums recently about the New York Rangers had one point brought up about the handedness of the centre. The idea centred around Alex Lafrenière possibly shifting to right wing to get into the top six around Chris Kreider and Artemi Panarin, and whether he could thrive despite the Rangers' top two centres shooting right and potentially favouring to pass on their forehands. I wasn't too impressed by the initial premise, as all NHL players can pass well on their forehand or backhand, and a lot of players play off-wings to allow for better passing/shooting angles.
However, if handedness was to come into play, it would be from the centre of the ice, and from the centreman feeling pucks up to the wingers on the rush. If there was something here – even a small edge – then it becomes something worth looking into, as every edge is important, especially in cap leagues where cheaper players slotted in on a centre's strong side could suddenly see an uptick in production. I decided to take a casual look into it, and using the FrozenTools Line Production Tool I was able to go through each team's most productive line combination at even strength, review the centre's handedness, and then track whether the strong side or the weak side winger was getting more points.
Of the 31 teams, there were five cases where each winger from the most productive line combination had the same amount of points, while the other 26 teams were split almost evenly, with 14 cases towards the theory edging out the 12 cases against it. As expected, there isn't much to glean here, other than that in fantasy we shouldn't really expect to find any kind of edge based on our centre's handedness.
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Now, just because centre handedness doesn't seem to be a factor in the production balance between wingers, that doesn't mean that there weren't a few sets of line mates that stood out during my research. I'll profile a few wingers that are worth noting for their even strength numbers last season.
Andrew Mangiapane (RW) – Calgary Flames
Projected Cap Hit: $2,720,000
The top scoring line combination for the Flames at even strength was surprisingly Mikael Backlund, Matthew Tkachuk, and Mangiapane. In the first half of the season Mangiapane scored at a 30-point pace, however in the second half he upped that to a 54-point pace in part due to an added three minutes of extra ice time. He still needs another full season before he reaches the usual breakout threshold, however it appears that if he sticks with his current linemates, his scoring pace is going to jump early. Try to get on board the Mangia-train before your league-mates pick up on the production.
Dominik Kubalik (LW) – Chicago Blackhawks
Projected Cap Hit: $6,240,000
When you put Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane, and rookie Dominic Kubalik on a line, you wouldn't expect Kubalik to be outscoring both. Well, with Kubalik's 14 points he beat out Kane and Toews with 11 and 10 respectively. He turns 25 tomorrow and may be less likely to take a bridge deal due to being older. Thus, he becomes a bit of a double-edged sword; with high scoring potential that may not quite be realized by your leaguemates, but also his salary may be higher than you would expect next season. Check on the cost, but only set out to acquire him if you have the cap space to manage it comfortably.
Nikita Gusev (LW) – New Jersey Devils
Cap Hit: $4,500,000 Expires in 2021
It seems as though everyone thinks Gusev's first season as a disappointment. However, he scored at a 55-point-pace despite being held back by a lack of skilled linemates. On a team with Jack Hughes and Nico Hischier, Gusev spent 87 percent of his even strength shifts away from those two dynamic centres. Despite that, he still managed to be a part of the Devils' most productive line combination which also featured Blake Coleman (traded at the deadline) and Travis Zajac. With more exposure to the top two centres next year, including some development by Jack Hughes, we could see a solid improvement in the scoring categories, perhaps even surpassing a 70-point-pace. Not too many 70-point players can be bought in on at a low point the year before, especially when they have a reasonable salary to boot.
Conor Garland (RW) – Arizona Coyotes
Cap Hit: $775,000 Expires in 2021
As one of the top bargain players in cap leagues due to a tiny cap hit, Garland should already be a decently valuable asset, but somehow he still seems to be under-appreciated. Garland was one point away from matching Taylor Hall's production while they were on Arizona's most productive line together (along with Christian Dvorak). With Hall possibly testing the free agent market, Garland loses some talent on his wing, but will likely gain some more puck touches, ice time, and offensive opportunities that were soaked up by Hall. Nick Schmaltz was Garland's second most productive left winger, and Schmaltz himself just passed his breakout threshold not too long ago.
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If you have any article topics for me to look into, give me a shout! You can find me on Twitter @alexdmaclean for questions, comments, or article requests.
And stay safe!
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Previous Capped Articles:
Observations and Notes on Recent Draft and Free Agent News
Searching for, and Avoiding, Sophomore Slumps