In honor of Bubble Week we are going to put a quick pause on our look at multi-cat players and turn our attention to a few players who might be worth a little extra examination on your rosters. As with all of the other writers this week we are going to avoid talking about the top several tiers of players and really focus on those ones that might be in line for something better this season.

This article is really going to align well with our earlier series on breakout candidates. We talked about the 4th Year Breakout a few times (here and here), and then broadened our definition a bit a couple of weeks ago with the Up and Comers. We are going to use some of the same process here, but with a different batch of players because of slightly different criteria and focus.

This week in Frozen Tools Forensics: Bubble Week

Now for a little bit of process and inside baseball. When writing this column every week, I try and do a couple of things. I definitely want to end up talking about some players, and give some fantasy takes as that is what everyone comes for. I also want to try to give a little context to some of the available research options and show how the reports can be used. To that end I wanted to take a second and remind everyone how valuable the export feature is on the Dobber Reports. Almost every week I use the export feature so I can add my own filters, sort, or even add more columns. That process was more important than ever this week. We have no specific report for the "take out all of the non-bubble players". By exporting a Dobber Report I have a spreadsheet that I can then add the Bubble Data to and then filter. In this case I can also add some other columns (like say some Per-60 data to a Big Board Report).

In this case specifically I started with a Big Board report removed of the top tier players (vlookup functions are lovely), rearranged the columns (so this article would focus only on the ones I need), and then filtered for criteria. This week we are continuing the themes outlined in the articles above; looking for players that could be on the verge of some increased production. That means players that are having success on a Per-60 basis, but have some areas they could improve (like in power-play time, or total time on ice).

To start I want to look at power-play time. So, specifically, the table below shows players 30 or younger (let's be honest we all know who David Krecji is at this point), who played more than 20 games in 2019-20 (to account for sample size effects), played less than two minutes on the power-play, and then it is sorted by points-per-60.

The first question that pops up from this list is; who is Adam Gaudette? Well he played 59 games with Vancouver in his third (but really second because the first was just five games) season with the Canucks. He spent the majority of his time on the third line, though did see a few turns with Bo Horvat on the second unit. His power-play time was limited (of course, given the search criteria), and what time he saw was on the second unit. His high points-per-60 rate would make him an intriguing watch if he could up his time on ice, but that is just going to be difficult as Tanner Pearson, Jake Virtanen, and Josh Bailey (all featured on this list as well) are definitely in line ahead of him for increased deployment. Pearson spent the vast majority of his shifts with Bo Horvat (with a rotating cast of third wheels which at some points included Jake Virtanen) and on the second power-play unit. Virtanen was mostly third or fourth line with really limited power-play exposure. Bailey is a bit of a wild card as he was not with Vancouver in 19-20 so could shake things up a little bit.

There is a lot of potential in Vancouver then, players who have had success in the time they have been given seem ready to take on bigger roles. The problem is Tanner Pearson and his 53-point pace might represent the ceiling of anyone who isn't on the top line and/or top power-play with Elias Pettersson. In 19-20 that top line was very solidly Pettersson, Brock Boesor, and J.T. Miller. Add Horvat and you have the top power-play. Pearson, Bailey, and Virtanen are certainly worth a look, but not a keep and won't break the 50-55 point plateau unless that power-trio (plus Horvat) is broken up.

There is a similar result when looking at Zach Hyman. It is great to see his point pace increasing each of the last four seasons, and very exciting that he got to spend time with Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner. The problem there doesn't seem to be a place to build on his 59-point pace (and 21 goal season). First off, his shooting percentage is sky-high at nearly 20 percent. If it were to drop even to his previous high of 14 percent he would lose five goals and it would bring his 82-game pace all the way down to 51 points, which turns into a 46 point pace if he is closer to his previous three year average. Furthermore he is already getting 19 minutes total ice time, with Matthews and Marner at even strength. The real lack in his game is on the power-play but who among Matthews, Marner, William Nylander, and John Tavares is he bumping? Maybe Nylander? Maybe they go to two units? Overall, I am not liking Hyman to improve his numbers so only keep if that 50 point-ish pace is valuable.

It is a similar story, though slightly less negative for Iyla Mikheyev. He might be similarly limited because of the lack of power-play time, but he certainly has an opportunity to improve on his 15.5 minute average time on ice and in fact he did take advantage of it in the opportunities he was given in 19-20. His floor is likely lower than Hyman, given his deployment is a bit unknown but if I am drafting or keeping based on upside, I am more interested in Mikheyev than Hyman.

Finally, on the flip side, Vincent Trochek's numbers are a bit concerning. He has dropped almost five minutes a night on average over the last three seasons, and a minute and a half of that is power-play time. His time in Carolina was even worse, ending the season with just 15 ½ minutes a night. He has shown the ability to flourish in the past when given 20 plus minutes a night and more than three minutes on the power-play, but it just doesn't look like he is going to be getting that deployment in Carolina. He might technically be on a second line, but hoping for a something other than a 50-55 point ceiling seems unwise at the moment.

That is all for this week. Thanks for reading.

Stay safe out there.

Want more tool talk? Check out these recent Frozen Tool Forensics Posts.

Frozen Tool Forensics: Multi-Cat Forwards

Frozen Tool Forensics: Up and Coming

Frozen Tools Forensics: Goalie moves past and present