Daily Fantasy Saturday: Shark Attack?
Stephen Dotzel
2021-03-20
I'd be remiss if I didn't start off this daily fantasy column with the fantasy performance of the week, if not the year. Yes, I'm talking about Mika Zibanejad from Wednesday who scored three goals and picked up three assists in ONE PERIOD. Those three goals matched his total from the entire season. Per @StatsBySTATS Zibanejad is the first player in NHL history to have a natural hat trick, score all three types of goals (power play, shorthanded, even strength), and have three or more assists in the same game. Of course, he didn't need the entire game, he accomplished all of that in just the second period alone.
Everyone knew the lack of production was not going to last for a player of Zibanejad's caliber, but I don't we expected all that regression to hit at once. That outburst resulted in 54.5 DraftKings points and helped Pavel Buchnevich rack up 34.5 points of his own. Obviously, you needed at least Zibanejad if you wanted any hopes of doing well in DFS tournaments that night and most likely needed Buchnevich as well. Buchnevich came in extremely low owned, around 2% in most tournaments, mainly because he was activated off the Covid-19 list just about 30 minutes prior to the game. That close to puck drop most people already have their lineups built and are either reluctant to change, or didn't even know he was playing because they did not see the news. This is a great example of two key concepts in NHL DFS that I often touch on – stacking linemates together in the hopes they both benefit from one another and staying on top of the news.
Personally, I had been playing Zibanejad frequently all season as he almost always rates very well for me. Until Wednesday, that had been mostly a losing proposition. However his 50 burger along with a swap from Chris Kreider to Buchnevich propelled me to a third-place finish in both the DraftKings Forecheck contest (4,458 entires) and the DraftKings Knuckle Puck contest (490 entries) giving me my most profitable night of the season thus far. Tip of the cap from me to Mika.
Saturday brings us new contests and a new slate of games where we can only hope to roster the next Zibanejad-like explosion. There are nine games on the main slate so here are some suggestions on how I'm handling the night. All players and prices are from DraftKings Main Slate (7 pm EST) but can be applied to FanDuel as well.
Top Options
MTL – Tyler Toffoli ($7,000), Nick Suzuki ($5,000), Shea Weber ($4,900)
If there's one thing we've learned this season, it's that you play Toffoli in fantasy against the Canucks. Yeah I know that hasn't been the case more recently, with no goals in the past three games against them, but he does have two assists in there and it's hard to block that eight goals in five games outburst from early in the season out of my mind.
Working in Toffoli's favor tonight is the fact that Thatcher Demko was in net Friday, which likely means the Canadiens will be seeing Braden Holtby on Saturday especially when you consider Vancouver plays again on Monday. While Demko has been stellar of late, Holtby has barely seen the ice with just two starts in the last month. On top of that potential rust to shake off, in three starts against Montreal this season Holtby has allowed 15 goals! Even if Demko were to start again, there's a reason most teams avoid using the same goalie on back-to-back nights and that's because performance typically suffers.
The Montreal lines are subject to change given the fact they played Friday and continued with their struggles to score, but as it stands Toffoli looks to be on a line with Suzuki. This would be great because the two also skate on the same power play unit. If looking to make it a three-man stack, consider Weber who comes in at a great price and also joins Toffoli on the power play.
DAL – Joe Pavelski ($7,200), Alexander Radulov ($6,700), Jamie Benn ($5,500)
If you told me a few weeks I'd have reservations about stacking against the Red Wings I'd have likely laughed it off. However, thanks in most part to some stellar play in net from Jonathan Bernier the Red Wings have actually won three of four and have allowed two goals or less in three of those as well. Since March 4, Bernier's .928 SV% is one of the best marks in the league. Unfortunately for both him and Detroit he left Thursday's game with a lower-body injury and is likely to miss Saturday's game.
Thomas Greiss has not been nearly as good, posting an abysmal .832 SV% across his last five appearances. Detroit's opponent, the Dallas Stars, have been struggling. However, Radulov, who was off to a great start before getting injured, returned for their last game. The trio of Pavelski, Radulov, and Benn did not start the game together on Thursday, but did share some shifts near the end, so I'm going to gamble that this will be the combination to start come Saturday, unless we get an update during the day Saturday stating otherwise.
I think the downgrade from Bernier to Greiss will go overlooked as will the Stars forwards given their recent struggles. This should lead to low ownership making for a great tournament play. Feel free to add on defensemen John Klingberg ($5,500) or Miro Heiskanen ($5,200) as well and if you need some salary relief consider swapping to Jason Robertson ($4,200) in place of Benn or Radulov as he has been skating on the top power play unit.
TOR – Auston Matthews ($9,200), Mitch Marner ($8,100), Joe Thornton ($3,900), Wayne Simmonds ($2,900)
It seems the Maple Leafs are on the slate every Saturday and when that's the case they are always worthy of a look despite their recent slump. Matthews has slowed considerably in the goal scoring department with just three across the Leafs last 12 games but a multi-goal game can come at any time for a player like him. His price tag is the main drawback to rostering him, but Thornton and now the return of Simmonds makes stacking him very affordable.
Simmonds will join Matthews on the power play and you may remember in his last game before being injured Simmonds had a pair of goals. Even if you don't want to pay up for Matthews, I'd still consider Simmonds as a great one-off value play to plug into lineups. Of course, don't sleep on Marner who is the most likely of the bunch to be a part of a big Matthews game. However, for $8,100 I think I can put that salary to better use and thus prefer to keep Matthews with one of the cheaper alternatives.
SJ –Evander Kane ($6,100), Logan Couture ($5,300), Erik Karlsson ($4,100)
Not the sexiest team to stack, but I think the Sharks find themselves in a good spot in this one. The Blues entered Friday's contest with the Sharks having allowed 21 goals in their past five games, losing all of them. Jordan Binnington got the nod Friday, setting the stage for Ville Husso Saturday. Among goalies who have played at least ten games this season, only Marcus Hogberg of the Senators has a save percentage worse than Husso's .879%.
Somewhat under the radar, Kane has been playing very well with a goal in four of the last six games while averaging over 17 DraftKings points per game. Couture joins him at even strength and the power play, making him the obvious stacking partner for Kane. To round out the stack I'd look at one of the two big name defensemen of the Sharks, Brent Burns ($6,000) and Karlsson. While neither is what they once were, Burns is the more consistent of the two from a fantasy perspective but Karlsson is cheaper and has been seeing top power-play minutes.
Quick Hitters
STL – The Blues are getting healthy and as a result they can now roll out three really good scoring lines. While the results haven't been there of late, it should only be a matter of time until this team starts scoring again. Picking which line to roster will be no easy task particularly if they keep being shuffled. Keep an eye on news throughout the day to get an idea on any line changes but wherever Jaden Schwartz ($2,500) ends up is where you likely want to go. He is the minimum price possible on DraftKings making him the top value option on the entire slate. Only Ottawa has allowed more goals per game this season than San Jose.
WSH1 – Father Time has shown little signs of being able to slow down Alexander Ovechkin ($8,800), who has scored a goal in six of the past seven games including two on Friday. The Rangers have been in the headlines for their outburst against Philadelphia on Wednesday but keep in mind they had allowed at least four goals in four of five before that. Roll Ovechkin out as a one off or pair him with the likes of Evgeny Kuznetsov ($4,600) or John Carlson ($6,800) as it was Kuznetsov or ended the game with Ovechkin on Friday, not Nicklas Backstrom ($6,700). If really looking to save some salary consider Dmitry Orlov ($2,500) who has double digit fantasy points in three of seven games and has spent more time on the ice with Ovechkin at even strength this year than any Capital defensemen, Carlson included.
WPG2 – Kyle Connor ($6,200) has found the back of the net four times in the last three games and can be paired with Pierre-Luc Dubois ($4,500) to make an affordable stack with a lot of upside. As evidence, this duo combined for 61.2 DraftKings points on Wednesday. Nikolaj Ehlers ($5,900) is the third skater on this line and is no slouch himself with 31 points in 30 games.
CGYPP – Calgary has looked better since Darryl Sutter took the reins having won four of five. One change he has made has been putting Noah Hanifin ($3,600) on the top power play. At that price it makes for a top value whether you're stacking Calgary or not. If you are, consider pairing Hanifin with either Elias Lindholm ($5,700) and Matthew Tkachuk ($6,600) or Sean Monahan ($5,500) and Johnny Gaudreau ($5,300). My preference is Lindholm and Tkachuk, but both pairs skate together at 5 on 5 and the power play.
Top Value Options for Filling Out Lineups
C – Nick Schmaltz ($4,300), Tomas Hertl ($4,200), Jean-Gabriel Pageau ($4,100), Nick Foligno ($3,000)
W – Zach Sanford ($3,500), Tomas Tatar ($3,400), Simmonds ($2,900), Schwartz ($2,500)
D – Ivan Provorov ($4,300), Karlsson ($4,100), Vince Dunn ($3,900), Hanifin ($3,600)
Goalie Picks
Ilya Samsonov ($7,800)
Ilya Sorokin ($7,900)
Carey Price ($8,400)
Adin Hill ($7,700)
Anton Khudobin ($8,500)
Be sure to double check your lineups before lock for any last-minute scratches or goalie changes, especially this year with the Covid protocols. If you follow me on Twitter @SteveDotzel you can subscribe to my "DFS-NHL" list which is comprised of several team beat writers tweeting the most recent news in real time. You can also reach out to me personally and I'll do my best to answer any questions I can. Hope to see you on top of the leaderboards!