Every Sunday, we’ll share 21 Fantasy Rambles from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s 'Daily Ramblings'.

Writers/Editors: Ian Gooding, Michael Clifford, Alexander MacLean, and Dobber

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1. The real star for the Jets so far has been Connor Hellebuyck, who is accomplishing what most North Division goalies failed to do in the regular season: stopping Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. Hellebuyck has faced 71 shots over the two games and allowed just one goal, giving him a near-perfect 0.986 SV%. Stuff McDavid and Draisaitl, and most of your work is done against Edmonton.

The Oilers’ only points in the first two games of this series have gone to Jesse Puljujarvi (goal), Tyson Barrie (assist), and Darnell Nurse (assist). That means no points in two games for McDavid or Draisaitl with the Oilers potentially two games away from elimination. If the Oilers are ousted from the playoffs sooner rather than later, McDavid and Draisaitl could be the two biggest busts of playoff pools. When McDavid was scoring at will to finish the regular season, the thought of him being held scoreless for two games seemed impossible. Yet here we are.

To their credit, McDavid did take five shots in Game 2, while Draisaitl took four. They can’t really go pointless during the playoffs… right?  (may22)

2. Playoff pool sleeper alert: Jeff Carter has found new life since joining the Penguins. Before the Kings traded him, Carter scored 19 points (8 G, 11 A) in 40 games. After the trade, Carter finished the regular season with 11 points (including nine goals) in just 14 games. He’s kept his foot on the pedal in the playoffs, recording points in three of the Pens first four playoff games. It's now a total of 12 goals in 18 games with his new team. Carter is under contract for another season with Pittsburgh, in case you’re wondering about his status for next season. (may21)

3. In an attempt to tighten their D, the Panthers healthy scratched Keith Yandle for Game 3. Remember this had been rumored to start the season, but it never materialized and Yandle played all 56 games to keep his consecutive games streak intact at 922. This missed game does not impact the streak, which is now only 42 behind all-time leader Doug Jarvis. (may21)

4. I wanted to piggy-back off an article written by Brennan Des a couple days ago. He discussed players to watch in the playoffs and one of them was Teuvo Teravainen. When I was looking up stats, I ran across this: there are 15 players with at least 1.0 primary assists at 5-on-5 over the last three years. They are as follows: Marner, Panarin, McDavid, Huberdeau, Crosby, MacKinnon, Malkin, Kucherov, Marchand, Kane, Stamkos, Pettersson, TERAVAINEN, Stone, Point.

Just look at the names on that list. It is a veritable who’s-who of elite fantasy producers, and then Teravainen. It begs the question: have we seen Teravainen’s upside? A couple years ago, Teravainen had 76 points in 82 games. For him to have more upside, we have to imagine him as a point-per-game player. Can he get there? I think so.

What hurt Teravainen this year, besides injuries, was ice time. He played 17:55 a couple years ago, was up to 19:12 a night last year, but crashed to 16:26 this year, his lowest since his first year in Carolina. We also need to remember that he’s not a spring chicken anymore, as he’ll be 27 years old for next season.

I think Teravainen can be a point-per-game player. He is a great distributor and should be playing consistently on a line with Aho/Svechnikov. That puts him firmly in the realm of 60 points right away. What the difference will be is what they do with him on the power play. He got 1:20 per game in 5-on-4 TOI this season, being relegated to the second unit. It will be near impossible to get anywhere near a point per game as long as he’s playing 16-17 minutes and on the second PP unit. But if he’s playing 19 minutes on the top line with top PP minutes with the aforementioned duo? Oh yeah, he can. (may20)

5. Alex Nedeljkovic looks to be making good on the promise he’s flashed over the years. If he can do what Cam Ward did for the Hurricanes all those years ago, well, this really could be the year they really make some noise. They sure are a fun team to watch. (may20)

6. Some interesting tidbits from Calgary’s year-end press conferences on Thursday:

Johnny Gaudreau has stated he is interested in signing a long-term deal with the Flames. He’s been discussed in trade rumors for the past couple seasons after the Flames have fallen short of expectations. Johnny Hockey has just one year remaining on his contract, so it will be interesting to watch whether he is extended during the summer.

GM Brad Treliving was noncommittal as to whether Mark Giordano would be protected for the expansion draft. Giordano is now 37 years old and was not always used on Calgary’s first-unit power play. His fantasy value appears to be on the decline after his 2018-19 Norris Trophy win. (may21)

7. Something to keep in mind for next year: Johnny Gaudreau and MatthewTkachuk haven’t played together much over the last three years, only about 373 minutes at 5-on-5 (comparatively, they each have over 2400 minutes away from each other). But in those 373 minutes, the team posted 3.0 expected goals per 60 minutes and 1.9 against for an expected goal share of 60.9 percent. For actual goals, it was 3.5 for and 2.7 against, for a 56.7 percent goal share.

All those numbers, both expected and actual, are better when they’re together than when they’re apart, save from actual goals against, and that’s driven by save percentage, not their play.

All this is to say I have been hard on Gaudreau these last couple years but if Gaudreau-Tkachuk can become a regular thing, it could be a huge boost for both players. It might be real bad news for Sean Monahan, depending on their centre, but it could be excellent news for both wingers. Just remember that for September drafts. (may20)

8. I am going to do a bigger dig into Andrei Svechnikov this offseason but there are some concerns starting to pile up for me. I guess there is one big concern and it’s his shooting percentage. For his career, at 5-on-5, he’s shot 8.85 percent. Comparatively, Jordan Staal has shot 8.3 percent. League-wide, among 232 forwards with at least 2000 minutes at 5-on-5 over the last three years, Andrei Svechnikov is 176^th, tucked between Jake Virtanen and Jesperi Kotkaniemi. Not exactly a group of snipers.

One of two things needs to happen: his sniping skills improve or he starts shooting more. Without at least one of those two things happening, it’s hard seeing him pushing far past 30 goals. And while 30-goal seasons are great, and we would take that with his peripherals, he is capable of more.

We should remember he’s just 21 years old and has a lot more growth to go through. I would just like to see him converting more at 5-on-5. Without it, he may never reach true elite stats in the fantasy realm. (may20)

9. Cole Caufield made his debut for the Habs on April 26^th. From that point to the end of the season, he led them in individual expected goals per 60 minutes and shots per 60 minutes. He was third in goals. This is on a team that was last – dead last – in goals at 5-on-5 per 60 minutes from April 1^st through to the end of the year. A team that was last in the league in goals for six weeks benched the guy who led them in shots and put up four goals in 10 games. Teams don’t need loads of scoring in the playoffs, but they do need some. I will just say it: sitting Caufield was a mistake. A big mistake. Time will tell. (may20)

10. Oliver Wahlstrom is known as someone who can put the puck in the net, as he has done it at every level thus far. However, he’s also growing into becoming an awesome multi-category player. In only 12 minutes of ice time per game, he managed to put up over two shots and one hit per game.

Playing on the second power play unit, he notched 10 PPPs in 44 games, and of late, he has even added some PIMs to his repertoire. If that’s something that he takes with him into the regular season, he’s going to need to be on your roster next year in all sorts of leagues. (may19)

11. In one other non-cap league, I own Robin Lehner, Jack Campbell, and Carey Price. I can keep one goalie here, and it is likely going to come down to who Toronto brings in as a backup for Campbell next year. If it’s someone who will take a backseat to Campbell, then his volume should be more valuable compared to Lehner’s superior ratios.

I’m not making that decision yet, but I fully expect Vegas to keep Marc-Andre Fleury and Lehner through to the end of Fleury’s contract, while Toronto brings in a cheaper goalie that can settle in and take 30 starts for the Leafs next year. If a 50-game goalie on a top team in the league is something you want on your fantasy team, see if you can jump on Campbell as soon as trading opens in your league.

Side note, wouldn’t a James Reimer reunion on a one-year $2 million deal be fun? (may19)

12. What if I told you that Warren Foegele and Andrei Svechnikov have virtually identical 5-on-5 scoring rates for their careers? Because they do: Foegele is at 0.74 over the last three years while Svechnikov is at 0.75. Now, Foegele is four years older and I think Svech ends up in the Hall of Fame someday, so I’m not saying they're the same player. What I am saying is that Foegele has been a good scorer for them in limited minutes, and I think there’s upside.

This will be an interesting summer for Foegele. He is an RFA and the team also has Nedeljkovic, Bean, and Svechnikov as RFAs and Hamilton as UFA. Whether he stays in Carolina or not, he’s in the top-third by shot rate and even without elite conversion rates, he’s posting middle-six scoring rates. He is good for over a hit per game, so he also plays well in multi-cat leagues. Just watch for him in case he’s ever on the move. If he can get some more ice time, particularly on the PP, he becomes a valuable fantasy asset. (may18)

13. Kevin Hayes will be having core surgery. At present time, he doesn’t appear likely to miss training camp, which is obviously very good news for the Flyers. He is a key piece of this team with him and Couturier being a 1-2 punch down the middle.

As we have seen from players in recent memory, this is something that can take a couple months to just heal, let alone get back in game shape. Remember last year, Steven Stamkos had his surgery in early March, before the pandemic broke out. Five months later, he managed to play a few minutes in one game. In that sense, this is good news for Philly and Hayes as he’s getting it done somewhat early, but in a normal year, this would have been done a month ago. At this point, he has four months to recover and get in shape for training camp.

It makes sense now why the Flyers seemed so inconsistent, right? Sean Couturier was fighting a hip injury for most of the season while Kevin Hayes requires surgery that might see him out until next season is underway (TBD on that one). This team should still be good, if everyone is healthy. I hope they don’t tinker too much this summer. (may18)

14. The end of season for Vancouver and Calgary players was a great time to pad their stats. Three years from now we could look back at Quinn Hughes‘ sophomore season and say “hey, it was just as good as his rookie campaign”. Completely forgetting that he grabbed 10 of his points (or whatever it ends up being) in the final four useless games with nothing at stake. (may17)

15. Healthy Scratch: Nikita Gusev. Not a shocker, but that should spell the end of his NHL career. I can’t see him wanting to go through this crap any longer. Not when he could go to the KHL and be treated like a hero. I’d love to see him stay. I’d love to see him find the right fit.

His fancy stats point to his being a better player than the production this year has shown. But I’m skeptical he wants to. If he does, though, the first thing I’d do is fire my agent. Any idiot who thinks a smaller one-dimensional guy would fit in on a Joel Quenneville team needs to have his license revoked. He set his client up to fail. (may17)

16. Joel Eriksson Ek, Marcus Foligno and Jordan Greenway have had great chemistry all year. Eriksson Ek and Greenway have had minor breakouts, while Foligno regained some of that touch he showed us back when he first arrived in the NHL (but nothing since). (may17)

17. The Top 100 Roto Rankings have been updated for May. Feel free to have a look and provide feedback. They will be updated monthly throughout the summer as trades, player signings, and other news happens. (may16)

18. Perhaps it should have been expected, but over the past two seasons, Jordan Binnington hasn’t been able to replicate his magical 2018-19 rookie season. Binnington is a good option if you need volume, as he tied for second with 42 GP in 2020-21 and was tied for sixth with 50 GP in 2019-20. However, he didn’t provide as many wins as you’d want in 2020-21, finishing with an 18-14-8 record. In other words, he finished more games with some kind of L than a W.

Over those past two seasons, Binnington has been relatively consistent with around a 2.60 GAA and .911 SV%. Although the GAA is comparable to the likes of Connor Hellebuyck and Tristan Jarry, the SV% is comparable to Mikko Koskinen and James Reimer. The latter stat in particular is hardly elite, so moving Binnington down in the Top 100 Roto was done to reflect that. (may16)

19. Patrik Laine was a no-doubt member of the all-bust team that I discussed on the Steve Laidlaw Podcast. Laine finished the season with just 12 goals and 24 points in 46 games, which would have him on pace for 43 points over a full 82-game season. That’s a major dropoff for a player who scored 28 goals and 63 points in 68 games last season, which would have been 76 points over a full season.

The minus-28 further devalued him in leagues that count plus/minus, while his seven power-play points marked the first time he had finished with single-digit power-play points over his five-year career.

We figured that John Tortorella wasn’t the right type of coach to bring out the best in Laine. Yet with Torts now out of the picture, is Laine due for a bounce-back season? A lot will depend on who the Blue Jackets hire as their next coach. Will it be a more offensive-minded coach who will let Laine focus on what he does best, which is scoring goals? Or was Jarmo Kekalainen so impressed with Torts that he has his sights set on Torts 2.0, which might further diminish Laine’s offensive production? A third option would have Kekalainen trade RFA-to-be Laine if he’s really not happy with the player. So many questions when it comes to Laine’s fantasy value. (may16)

20. With one more season left at $4.5 million, Mikko Koskinen could very well be bought out this offseason while the Oilers try to sign… I dunno, Mike Smith? There will be a few other goalies available, so it’s quite possible the Oilers have a brand new starting goalie in 2021-22. (may16)

21. Acquired for Adam Gaudette at the deadline, Matthew Highmore started off ice cold with the Canucks (no points in his first nine games), but put up some points to finish the year. With one more season at $725,000, Highmore seems like an ideal bottom-6 forward for the Canucks. (may16)

Have a good week, folks – be safe!!

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