Every Sunday, we share 21 Fantasy Rambles from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s 'Daily Ramblings'.

Writers/Editors: Ian Gooding, Michael Clifford, Alexander MacLean, and Dobber

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It’s Christmas in (checks month) August! Get your Fantasy Guide at the Dobber Sports shop. If you’ve preordered it, you should now be able to download it by going to Downloads on the Dobber home page. I know I’ve already spent plenty of time diving in and checking out the projections of players that are on my keeper team and that I’m interested in otherwise. Let’s just say I’m going to be referring to the PDF and Excel spreadsheet a lot before the start of the season. – Ian Gooding, Managing Editor, DobberHockey.com

Also of note, our French-language version, Guide des Poolers, will be made available on September 3, but you can already get going on your fantasy prep by downloading the Excel spreadsheet with Dobber’s projections.

Okay now, let's run down the past week's top 21 Fantasy Rambles:

1. Canucks’ offense, last two seasons:

– 2019-20: 3.25 GF/GP (8^th), 24.2 PP% (4^th)
– 2020-21: 2.64 GF/GP (24^th), 17.4 PP% (25^th)

At the risk of sounding like a homer, I think the Canucks are going to score a lot of goals this year. Bringing in Conor Garland, Oliver Ekman-Larsson and Vasily Podkolzin, having a healthy (and signed) Elias Pettersson, no COVID outbreaks (hopefully), and this team could rebound scoring-wise. A power play of Pettersson, Brock Boeser, Bo Horvat, J.T. Miller, and Quinn Hughes should score more than once every two games, which was the case in 2020-21. (aug14)

2. I’m kind of surprised Ilya Samsonov signed for only one season, although I don’t think Capitals fans are enamored with him. Since the contract is only one season, it’s critical for him to establish himself as the starter this season. Vitek Vanecek is also on the books for one more season (both will be RFAs), so we may have a good ol’ fashioned goaltending showdown. The Capitals are also spending less than $3 million on the pair, which is far less than some teams are paying for one goalie. (aug14)

3. In news that seemed to arrive completely out of left field, Joe Thornton has signed a one-year, $750,000 contract with the Florida Panthers. Thornton is picking a team that he believes can help him land that elusive Stanley Cup (fill in obvious Florida retirement home joke here). In case you think Thornton is washed up, Sheldon Keefe thought enough of him to give him top-line minutes with Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner at times. That being said, expect the 42-year-old Thornton to be a bottom-6 forward with the Panthers, with the possibility to move up in the lineup if there are injuries.

I don’t necessarily see Thornton himself being in heavy demand in fantasy leagues, although he could be a waiver-wire pickup if he gets a run on one of the scoring lines. Kind of like last season in Toronto. The signing really impacts some players on the Panthers , in particular prospects that you may be waiting on.

Florida has a logjam of forwards, which means that someone like Anton Lundell spends the year getting used to North American life in the AHL while getting good and ready for the NHL. Kind of like the old Detroit model. Although he would be considered NHL-ready in many other organizations, Grigori Denisenko might also be given another season in the AHL to really ripen, given that he played only 22 total games (NHL and AHL) last season. Being waivers-exempt also matters here, even if a meritocracy seems fairer.

I already wrote about the Florida forward situation here, when the Sam Reinhart trade was announced. I won’t rehash it any more than that, except to say that they’ve just added one more forward to the pile.

4. In a Friday afternoon/evening news drop to perhaps avoid around-the-clock coverage from the Toronto media, the Leafs announced that Auston Matthews underwent wrist surgery earlier in the day. He is expected to need six weeks to recover, which should put him on track to be ready for the start of October. After increasing on-ice training, Matthews reportedly experienced discomfort, so surgery was recommended.

With the season starting in mid-October, this is certainly something to keep an eye on leading up to the season. The NHL’s leading goal scorer in 2020-21 with 41 goals, Matthews is currently projected to be a top-10 pick in fantasy drafts. Since the wrist is critical for what Matthews does best, there might also be some concern as to whether he’ll feel right once he’s back on the ice.

5. Maybe it was because Tom Wilson was allowed to run wild during that one game, but the Rangers have stocked up on toughness this offseason in adding Ryan Reaves, Barclay Goodrow, and Sammy Blais. None of these players should be penciled in for the top 6, so they shouldn’t become offensive anchors for players like Artemi Panarin and Mika Zibanejad. Maybe someone like a Chris Kreider could be affected, since Panarin, Alexis Lafreniere, and Kreider are all left wingers.

6. The Jets and Andrew Copp avoided arbitration, agreeing to a one-year, $3.64 million extension. In a shortened season, Copp set career highs in both goals (15) and points (39). In other words, he was very quietly on a 58-point pace. That’s not bad for a player who received spurts of top-6 ice time, but whose most frequent linemates in 2020-21 were still Adam Lowry and Mason Appleton. With Paul Stastny back with the Jets for another season, Copp might be back on the third line.

My one lasting memory of Copp last season: His four-goal game against the Canucks on March 24. His main linemates in that game were… Lowry and Appleton. Sometimes you don’t need to play alongside the big guns to be successful.

7. The bottleneck to Jakub Vrana‘s upside is Detroit’s center situation. They have Dylan Larkin, and it would be great for Vrana to get every game there. But if he’s not playing with Larkin at even strength, the Wings have a bunch of elder veterans or unproven players at center. None of those spark a ton of confidence in Vrana, who assuredly won’t come cheap in fantasy drafts.

It is worth remembering that Larkin was injured towards the end of last year and the team only had a handful of games with Larkin and Vrana in the lineup. There is no telling what they go with to start the season, or if it stays that way all year (with Jeff Blashill, I doubt it). All the same, this is the season where Vrana starts to scratch the surface of his upside, and he can break 40 goals if all goes right. (aug12)

8. Boston adding Nick Foligno and Erik Haula (on reasonable deals) might barely make up for David Krejci‘s value by aggregate, but he is a near-impossible player to replace on his own. The Bruins still have enough center depth to manage in a deep Eastern Conference, but the team may be surprised by how much they miss having the center depth Krejci provides.

Losing him is a bit of a hit to the entire lineup, but it especially hurts his linemates Craig Smith and Taylor Hall. No offense to Charlie Coyle, but he’s not in the same tier as Krejci. This also likely means that the first power play will consist of the perfection line plus Hall, meaning Smith is going to be the odd one out there with the rest of the misfits on the second unit. He only put up six points with the man-advantage last season anyways, but that may have been his peak in Boston. (aug11)

9. Darnell Nurse's extension is ridiculous no matter which way you slice it. It makes him basically impossible to own in any cap league, but for non-cap leagues it ensures he's going to stuff the peripherals at least as he will be playing at least 25 minutes a night. The Nurse deal comes on the heels of similar extensions for Seth Jones and Zach Werenski. If I was an NHL team and going to pay one of them $9M it would be Nurse, though for fantasy both Jones and Werenski have higher upsides.

Dougie Hamilton got about the same amount on the open market, and he was a better option than all three mentioned above – both for fantasy and real-world value. He joins two other top power play options in New Jersey though, with the newly drafted Luke Hughes and the incumbent Ty Smith. I would love to see a world where New Jersey runs out three defensemen on the power play – or even at even-strength – and changes the dynamic of the game a little. They don’t currently have a lot of forwards that need a fair share of power play time either, so it could work. Alas, this is probably a pipe-dream, and it likely delays the arrival of Luke Hughes by a year or two, as well as probably cutting the upside of all three defensemen by 5-10 points. (aug11)

10. Vince Dunn nets a two-year bridge deal at a $4M cap hit, which is a bit above his projected $3.15 million. It does seem like it will be a little higher than cap league owners might have liked, however, it does show that he should be the front-runner for powerplay time when the team breaks camp in the fall. His peripherals aren't great, but he should be one of the cheaper top power play options at the draft table this year. (aug11)

11. Adam Pelech wasn't owned in too many leagues, but if he was then it was for his hits/blocks production (and possibly also because of the cap value his last contract brought). His deployment shouldn't change much, though for Ryan Pulock owners, the Pelech contract provides a bit of a framework for his extension. Maybe a $6-6.5M cap hit on a long-term deal would keep him in line there. (aug11)

12. Signing Alex Edler, and Philip Danault, plus trading for Viktor Arvidsson were all good bets for the Kings. Arvidsson may be in tough to get back to his 30-goal, 60-point seasons, but even 80% of that production will be worthwhile value for what the Kings paid.

This is now a team that looks fairly deep on the blue line, has two capable goalies, led by starter Cal Petersen (still one of the best bargains in fantasy hockey right now – cap league or not) and a forward core that boast two of the top two-way centers in the game, a mix of older and younger skilled wingers, and some grit. A bit of a dark-horse at the moment, but this may be the second-best team in the Pacific Division next season. (aug11)

13. News on Fabian Lysell, Boston’s first-round pick from 2021:

@ianmclaren: Sounds like Fabian Lysell is going to sign his ELC and begin his North American pro hockey career (s/t @97_carlsson for the heads up!)

Lysell's Dobber Prospects profile is here. (Aug10)

14. Igor Shesterkin also signed an extension, a four-year deal worth over $22.6M in total. Though he wasn’t super elite by typical goalies stats last year, he was at the top of the board in many other metrics: first in the league in high-danger save percentage and a goals save above expected per minute in line with names like Juuse Saros and Robin Lehner. As long as he keeps up those levels, and the Rangers keep improving, he should be an elite fantasy option moving forward. Though, as always, the usual “goalies are voodoo” caveat applies. (Aug10)

15. Some rosters in the Fantasy Guide were harder to put together than others. I found a few interesting things when putting them together and I figured I would few a couple here.

Arizona: Last season Jakob Chychrun played the entire season for the first time in his career. I really think Shayne Gostisbehere is a better player (keep in mind the bar here is low) since his knee surgery, he just needs a chance to show it. Last year he was cannibalized by Erik Gustafsson early on, and was never really trusted with ice time to get any rhythm going. I also think Conor Timmins is ready to show what he can do as a puck-moving defenseman. If Chychrun gets hurt again – and historically that happens a lot – then Ghost and Timmins will surprise. If not, then Ghost and Timmins just have “okay” seasons.

Detroit: A fun team to put together and I wish there was room to put both Jonatan Berggren and Lucas Raymond on it immediately. But it’s constructed so that neither one happens. Both should see NHL action this season, but I have just one of them playing from midseason onward. There is, however, a spot waiting for Moritz Seider. I really like this team’s goaltending setup. Alex Nedeljkovic is set up to succeed. If he stumbles, Thomas Greiss is there. Zero pressure on Ned to shoulder the starter’s job. The Wings can ease him in and re-evaluate next year, when Greiss’s contract is up.

Philadelphia: The only thing with this roster is – Morgan Frost is in tough to make this team. He can’t be a fourth-line center. Current centermen are Sean Couturier, Kevin Hayes, Scott Laughton and Nate Thompson – and assume Claude Giroux plays wing. And the only wing spot Frost could take is on the third line. What if Carter Hart implodes again? The Martin Jones show? (Aug9)

16. I had removed Seth Jones from the Top 100 Roto Rankings just before the trade to Chicago. For a 26-year-old defenseman, his scoring numbers had been trending in the wrong direction.

2017-18: 0.73 PTS/GP
2018-19: 0.61 PTS/GP
2019-20: 0.54 PTS/GP
2020-21: 0.50 PTS/GP

[Fantasy Take: Seth Jones, Adam Boqvist Traded in Blockbuster Deal]

Now that he has been acquired by a higher-scoring team with a more effective power play, I had to rethink that decision. If you follow the money that the Blackhawks paid to Jones after acquiring him, he will be the guy. And since franchise icon Duncan Keith was moved out prior to Jones moving in, there will be no doubt who will run the first-unit power play. Jones was a 25+ minute defenseman over his last three seasons in Columbus, which I don’t think will change in Chicago now that they have what they view as a true No.1 defenseman.

Prorated over a full 82-game season, Jones would have averaged about 12 power-play points over each of his last two seasons. That’s a number that stands to improve in Chicago, where Patrick Kane and Alex DeBrincat should each easily reach over 25+ power-play points themselves. That should drive a reversal on the scoring decline, perhaps even up to 50 points.

Jones is also valuable in multicategory leagues because of decent contributions in shots, hits, and blocked shots (depending on the league). He should be able to accumulate these stats based on minutes. Overall, Jones should be universally owned in 12-team leagues as a D2 or a D3. There’s enough potential for him to be back in the top 100. (Aug15)

17. Thank you to those of you who provided feedback on goalies that you would draft after Andrei Vasilevskiy. Given your thoughts and my own analysis, here are my top-5 goalies in single-season leagues for August's edition of the Top 100 Roto Rankings. You at least have the preliminary formation of a second tier behind Vasilevskiy.

• Vasilevskiy – Maybe there’s a better goalie out there ability-wise. But the way fantasy leagues are set up, he’s the clear number one. Need proof? How about volume of starts resulting in wins, and solid ratios.

• Connor Hellebuyck – Unaffected by the goalie movement and perhaps flying under the radar because of it, his numbers didn’t fall off much after a 2019-20 Vezina Trophy. One of the teams I was more impressed with in terms of offseason moves was Winnipeg because of the upgrades to the defense in Nate Schmidt and Brenden Dillon.

• Robin Lehner – Fantasy owners no longer have to worry about him splitting starts with Marc-Andre Fleury. Injuries are a concern here, otherwise I’d probably put him at #2 because of the situation he’s in and prior performance when he’s been healthy.

• Darcy Kuemper – I would have to assume he’ll be drafted as a top 5, simply because of his move to Colorado. He’s also battled injuries, but he could be in for a big season if he can stay healthy. Plus he’s been fairly strong during his time with Arizona, which could set him up for success with Colorado.

• Semyon Varlamov – Outstanding numbers last season playing behind an air-tight Barry Trotz defense. However, Ilya Sorokin could play a greater role in the goaltending this coming season. Varlamov had the league’s highest GSAA (21.84), while only Fleury had a higher QS% than Varlamov (69.4%). (Aug8)

18. Teaser time. I worked on some of the writeups for the Fantasy Guide (available August 14). So I’ll let you in on what I’ve written about the Leafs goalie situation.

In an offseason goalie market with plenty of supply, the Leafs opted for Petr Mrazek. He seems like the right fit given the organization’s current needs. For one, Jack Campbell has never been a full-time starter, although he looked impressive when given the opportunity in 2020-21. Also, Mrazek is coming off an injury-filled season where he played only 12 games. He has also been more of a timeshare goalie throughout his career, with a career high of 54 games with Detroit back in 2015-16. Expect the two to alternate starts, at least in the beginning of the season. Who receives the majority of starts could not only depend on which goalie is hotter, but also which goalie spends less time on injured reserve.

To find out what confidence level either will be the starter, you’ll have to purchase a Fantasy Guide.

[Fantasy Impact: Toronto Goes With Mrazek – Campbell Goalie Duo]

I will mention that those 12 games were impressive ones. Mrazek finished in the top 10 among goalies who played at least 10 games with his 2.12 GAA, .923 SV%, and 0.41 GSAA/60). He also benefits from moving from one likely playoff team to another, which should provide him and Campbell the opportunity for plenty of W’s.

In terms of where these goalies are ranked, I believe both Campbell and Mrazek will either make the cut or be just on the outside looking in. Goalies ranked higher should have the number job to themselves. Goalies ranked lower will usually play for inferior teams, even if they have the job to themselves. If one emerges as the starter, that goalie could be in for a big year. (Aug8)

19. Still with the Fantasy Guide, here are some skaters that I’m curious about:

Nolan Patrick – Once a highly-touted WHL star, can he turn his career around in the Vegas system? I invested a lot in him early, but injuries have derailed his career and I eventually traded him away.

Conor Garland – I’m really curious as to what he will look like with the Canucks, especially since he was fun to watch in Arizona. The more I think about it, the more this trade could take his fantasy value to the next level.

Nick Ritchie – He was a waiver-wire addition to my one fantasy team that won the title. Oh, and I wrote the Fantasy Take on his signing with Toronto. So, maybe it’s just to compare notes with Dobber's take in this Fantasy Guide.

Mathieu Joseph – As I wrote some of the team-by-teams for the Fantasy Guide, I’m discovering that he could be in line for an expanded role next season, particularly with Blake Coleman, Barclay Goodrow, and Tyler Johnson all leaving. (Aug8)

20. I also worked on the one-way contracts section of the Fantasy Guide. There are always at least one or two breakouts you can find by using these contracts to see who will get the first opportunity in camp. These aren’t the guys going at the top of your fantasy drafts, but they are the ones to take fliers on in the later rounds, and to stock your farm with in dynasty leagues. Here’s a sample:

Alexander Volkov RW, Anaheim Ducks – Cap Hit: $925,000

Another skilled winger that just couldn’t find enough ice time with the Lightning, Volkov is looking to follow in the path of Jonathan Marchessault, Carter Verhaeghe and others. He has the talent to do so, but he just needs to put the pieces together and seize his opportunity. There are a lot of skilled youngsters in the Ducks’ system, but Volkov should have a spot in the top nine locked up barring more significant moves.

The Ducks really haven’t done a lot in free agency, so there is room for the young guys to push for lineup spots, and to net some really solid ice time over the course of the season. They have re-signed a lot of their own RFAs, though, the latest being Maxine Comtois and Max Jones. Both received modest raises, and they are on the typical contract progression path. Both are excellent players to look into buying in multi-category leagues. (aug11)

Still with the Ducks, Isac Lundestrom signed a two-way contract and it kind of perked my ears up a little bit. A couple years ago, there was a plethora of Ducks prospects, including Lundestrom, who looked the future of the team. We are talking Lundestrom , Sam Steel, Max Jones, Troy Terry, and Max Comtois, to name several. Out of those five forwards, the largest contract given post-ELC was to Terry, at three years and $1.45M AAV. Comtois has a two-year deal, Jones three years for less than $4M total, one year for Steel and Lundestrom. It seems the Ducks are very uncertain about how many, if any, of these players are going to be cornerstones for the next 5+ years.

This is a bit concerning for fantasy because there’s no clear hierarchy. It isn’t as if Steel has separated himself and pushed to the 1C conversation. He could be the 1C, or he could be the 4C. There are similar ranges of outcomes for just about every player on that list. That is the concern with drafting some of the Ducks skaters: they could earn 17 minutes a night in October and be down to 14 minutes a night in November.  (aug12)

21. Frederick Gaudreau had been a spare part his entire career but got a legit chance in Pittsburgh’s bottom six last year and showed well; positive play-driving impacts along with 10 points in 19 games.

He is an interesting name because as Dobber mentions, Marco Rossi is the future 1C, just probably not right out of the gate. Joel Eriksson Ek plays on likely the best defensive line in hockey. That leaves another center role open, and one that could ostensibly see someone like Kevin Fiala on the line. (Remember that Fiala was stuck on the third line a lot down the stretch last year.) While Gaudreau won’t get a load of ice time, Ryan Hartman was Fiala’s center down the stretch last year and he played 16 minutes a night over the final dozen games.

In cap leagues where cheap, productive centers are hard to come by (on non-ELC contracts), Kevin Fiala‘s potential center at 16 minutes a night and a $1.2M cap hit seems very reasonable to me. I think Gaudreau is a legit late bloomer, and is a playmaker-type that Fiala could use. We could easily see Gaudreau on the fourth line, or maybe even on the wing, but there is a chance he could be the 3C and that would bring him value, given Minnesota’s lineup construction. (aug12)

Have a good week, folks – be safe!!

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