Every Sunday, we share 21 Fantasy Rambles from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s 'Daily Ramblings'.

Writers/Editors: Ian Gooding, Michael Clifford, Alexander MacLean, and Dobber

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1. Stop being impatient when it comes to trading Jack Eichel. Buffalo fans, of all people, should be praying – praying! – for the trade stalemate to drag on well into December. Even if it means him sitting. The longer this goes, the better the return.

Dynasty owners of Eichel and Vladimir Tarasenko need to hold tight. No panic trades. Hang in there. A time will arrive when their trade value will be high. That time is not now. I own Tarasenko in one league – and it’s the waiting game. I went through this before with Sidney Crosby and his massive concussion problems. Obviously waiting it out paid off. Talent is talent. At the very worst, the player becomes plagued by injuries similar to Peter Forsberg. But as you know, Forsberg certainly had his high-value seasons. (aug23)

2. I don’t have doubts Conor Garland can score 30 goals with the Canucks in the right situation. The question is if he’ll get 17 minutes a night playing with Bo Horvat and on the second PP unit, or 19 minutes a night playing with Elias Pettersson and on the top PP unit. With Horvat, Pettersson, Miller, and Boeser likely locks for the top PP unit, I have my doubts. That isn’t going to kill Garland’s value, but I think it takes 35-goal upside out of the equation. At this point, if he’s not top PP, 30 goals are his upside, not a reasonable expectation. (aug27)

3. Andrei Svechnikov will rebound from last season, but it’s a matter of whether that rebound is going from 20 goals/82 games to 25 goals/82 games, or all the way up to 35 goals/82 games.

Svech’s issue last year was at 5-on-5. He shot 7.1 percent, a career-low, and had a 58.3 percent IPP, also a career-low. He also saw a career-low in shots/60 minutes despite having a shot-attempt rate much in line with his career. It seemed he genuinely just missed the net more, and I have to think that’s randomness in a weird, shortened season more than anything else.

Moreover, according to Corey Sznajder’s data, Svech was third among Carolina forwards in primary shot assists per 60 minutes, and that’s on top of all the shooting data we just posted. He is a true threat both with and without the puck, and that’s what makes him different than, say, a Patrik Laine.

The upside for Svech is immense and he’s just starting to scratch the surface. He had a down year in 2021 and that’ll make him relatively cheap at the draft table come September. The 21-year-old has more upside in a hits league than a non-hits league, but he could be top-end in almost any format. (aug24)

4. Building off of last week’s Ramblings where I started discussing how I review and prep for my fantasy seasons, and the next big step is mock drafts. Yahoo mock drafts are open, and I have run through a couple before gathering some thoughts here. I have a bit of a usual routine in prepping for the season, and I’ll outline it here, what I do, and why I think it has been successful. Check it out… (aug25)

5. I was looking (here) at defensemen with top power-play minutes last season, along with their even-strength minutes. In terms of even-strength time, there’s no consistency. You have defensemen like Thomas Chabot and Drew Doughty who simply log a ton of ice time, whether it’s power-play time or even-strength time. Both Doughty and Chabot average at least 20 minutes in even-strength time alone. As long as they remain on the power play, they’ll contribute counting stats to fantasy rosters.  

On the other end of the scale, there are defensemen that barely seem to make it on the ice during even strength, or at least average no more ice time than any other defenders on their team. It’s power-play or bust for these guys! There are names you’d suspect, such as Keith Yandle and Tony DeAngelo (in spite of playing just six games, he still averaged a fair bit of power-play time). Yet there’s one other name on there that might generate some interest among fantasy owners for potential power-play time. (aug28)

6. Keeper leaguers with Ryan Ellis on their team… or Ivan Provorov… heck, even Rasmus Ristolainen couldn’t have been thrilled to see Keith Yandle sign with the Flyers. He’s not coming to Philly to take a backseat on the power play, as he took on nearly 80 percent of the Panthers’ power-play minutes in 2020-21, but just 25 percent of the even-strength minutes. Without the power-play, he’s basically a third-pairing d-man.

One danger of these types of defensemen is that they can become healthy scratches if they don’t produce on the power play and end up in the coach’s doghouse because of poor defensive play. Yet as long as the games-played streak remains active, Yandle will be in the lineup. After all, who would want to be the coach that healthy scratches him to take him out of the lineup? That coach might as well wait for the injury ninja to take care of that.

Over each of the past three seasons, Yandle’s power-play point totals have been at least nearly half of his overall point totals. I would be shocked if he’s not on the Flyers’ first-unit power-play unit on opening night. [Fantasy Take: Yandle the New PP Quarterback in Philadelphia] (aug28)

7. This isn’t going to be a writeup about Tony DeAngelo‘s character, nor will I discuss the probability that he stays with the team for the entire season. I’ve already discussed that earlier this offseason. This will strictly focus on how he contributes on the power play.

The table above only lists the six games he played with the Rangers last season. In his breakout 2019-20 season, DeAngelo was on the ice for 58.2% of his team’s power-play time, yet only 32.6% of the even-strength time. That’s not as extreme as Yandle, but given his (lack of) defensive abilities, maybe it should be. DeAngelo has the opportunity to step right into Dougie Hamilton‘s shoes on a first-unit power play that was second in the league (25.6%) in power-play conversion. Not to mention that the Canes are a strong enough even-strength team that could potentially cover up TDA’s defensive warts.

Although the contract terms (one year) and the amounts (approximately $1 million) are practically the same, DeAngelo is on much more tenuous ground that Yandle. He certainly doesn’t have a games streak, and there are the issues mentioned above. However, the Canes’ other power-play options on defense (Jaccob Slavin, Ethan Bear, Jake Gardiner) don’t possess nearly the scoring upside as TDA. There’s higher risk, but potentially higher payoff. [Fantasy Impact: Hurricanes Sign Tony DeAngelo] (aug28)

8. Given the lack of defensive options in Chicago, Adam Boqvist may have slid into the PP1 chair before he was really ready. Yet it’s worth mentioning that eight of his 16 points in 2020-21 came on the man advantage. He was on the ice the majority of the time for the power play, yet he was sheltered otherwise, playing only 26.7% of the even-strength minutes. 

Don’t sleep on Boqvist as a potential PP1 contributor, though. The Jackets featured a bottom-5 power play (15.4%), with only Jack Roslovic reaching double-digit power-play points. As well, only eight players on the entire roster recorded more than a single power-play point. Needing ideas for improvement, the Jackets may consider a 3F-2D PP1, which could include the left-shooting Zach Werenski and the right-shooting Boqvist.

A word of caution with Boqvist: He has suffered multiple injuries throughout his short pro career, including two concussions, a broken right wrist, a right shoulder injury, and another wrist injury. Yet if you’re in the very late rounds of your draft and you are looking for a d-man that could contribute on the power play, he’s worth taking a flier on. [Fantasy Take: Seth Jones, Adam Boqvist Traded in Blockbuster Deal] (aug28)

9. When thinking about drafting, the New York Rangers’ lineup intrigues me. We know their stars like Panarin, Zibanejad, and Fox. We also know there are reliable players they’re going to use a lot like Kreider, Strome, and Goodrow. They also have a bevy of young forwards that will have various roles like Chytil, Kakko, Lafrenière, and Kravtsov. There are a lot of moving parts here. Aside from Ziba/Panarin getting all the prime minutes, how is this going to shake out?

Colin Blackwell and Pavel Buchnevich moving on means there are roles to fill. At the worst, Blackwell is a third-liner while Buch was a first-liner. They don’t really have anyone that can step into Buch’s role immediately. Honestly, which of Kakko, Laffy, and Kravtsov does anyone trust with nearly 19 minutes a game this year? It is probably a situation where pieces take time everywhere. Maybe Goodrow eats some of Buch’s PK minutes, while Laffy takes some PP minutes, and Kakko at even strength. In that sense, players like Kakko and Laffy won’t jump from 13-14 minutes to 18-19 immediately. We probably see them climb to about 15-16 minutes as the minutes are spread so it’ll help them all a bit, but no one player immensely.

This could end up being a big headache. We know the stars, but how does everyone else fit in? I doubt we get much of a clear picture all year. (aug26)

10. I think we may see a similar problem in Chicago as with the Rangers above, honestly. Assuming everyone is healthy and ready to go, we know that Toews/Dach will be their top two centres, and Kane/DeBrincat will be in the top-6. As for everyone else? Who knows.

There are a lot of people to consider here. There is Dominik Kubalik, whom I think should be earning 18 minutes a night by now, but the Chicago coaching staff feels differently. They also have Dylan Strome, who was often injured last year and seems to be a forgotten man. They traded for Brett Connolly, have Adam Gaudette finally healthy, and Tyler Johnson was brought in as well. While those aren’t the same as having Kakko or Lafrenière, there are important roles to fill, and someone has to fill them.

Personally, I think we see a big year from Adam Gaudette. Not 30 goals or anything, but I think this is the year he starts to make good on his offensive prowess. (I wrote a bit about him a couple months ago.) He is one of the players I will be drafting at the end of deeper drafts.

And don’t forget about Connolly, who is a proven 20-goal scorer. If he can get some decent line mates, he’ll be fantasy relevant again.

As mentioned, this could be a bit of a headache all season long. We know the stars, but we could see a lot of movement among the lesser players, and that’s bad for anyone who likes reliability in fantasy. (aug26)

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11. What do we make of the San Jose Sharks? At this point, given all that’s gone on this offseason, I am assuming that Evander Kane is not going to be in the lineup opening night. They have an aging blue line that is wildly overpaid and the trio of Burns/Karlsson/Vlasic are all in decline. In fact, in the case of Vlasic, he’s just bottomed-out as a bad defenceman, regardless of his salary. They don’t really have many prospects on the way; guys like Ryan Merkley and Jonathan Dahlen may help a bit. But they just don’t have the players coming like Los Angeles does, or a stocked draft pick cupboard like Arizona. This team just… is who they are. So can they be better than last year?

We are doing our offseason team-by-team previews and we’ll get to San Jose eventually (to-date available here). For that reason, I won’t dig super deep. But this team’s big problem last year was finishing, coming in 27^th by overall shooting percentage. Just one percent higher, from 8.7 percent to 9.7 percent, would have only brought them to the middle of the pack finishing-wise. But a jump of just 8.7 to 9.7 percent gives them 17 more goals on the year and brings them from 25^th in scoring to 15^th, and just behind Boston. This team really doesn’t need some sort of massive rebound to be a decent scoring environment. The question is if relatively the same lineup can do it. I have my doubts, given a lot of this relies on rebound seasons from the blue line. (aug26)

12. Another guy that popped into my head when talking about the Sharks was Rudolfs Balcers. He had a decent year for the Sharks with eight goals in 41 games, playing under 15 minutes a night. He also scored all those goals at even strength, just FYI.

It wasn’t a big jump forward for Balcers. His shot rate was fine but his passing left something to be desired (per Corey Sznajder’s data). He was also below-average in carry-in percentage, or zone entries with control, but not light-years below. It won’t take much improvement to be average.

This may not sound flattering, but I mean it as a compliment: Balcers at least is starting to look like an above-average forward. He has no problem getting to the net, as his expected goals rate is in line with guys like Matthew Tkachuk and Brayden Point. It is just his finishing is below-average. But, even with his below-average finishing, he was able to drive offence and limit chances at the other end. For his career, he’s above-average in offensive and defensive impact, he just needs to turn his finishing around.

I think there’s something here. If all goes well over his next couple years, maybe he can turn into a Blake Coleman-type. Somewhere around a 15-20-goal threat with a lot of hits and good defence. That may not sound like a monster fantasy season, but 15 goals, 130 shots, and 150 hits is available for basically nothing in most hits drafts. This team also changed around their power play a lot last year so he may even get some PP1 time every now and then. Balcers might be a diamond in the rough. He is on my list of targets, particularly in cap leagues. (aug26)

13. Is it just me, or could the Columbus Blue Jackets be kind of underrated for fantasy this year? Last year was a bad year. There was turmoil all season for them and it seemed Laine/Tortorella were never on the same page. We have a new coaching staff though, and we’ve seen quotes they don’t want to slam square pegs in round holes. That should be good news for Laine, who never seemed comfortable in 2021. Let’s assume for a minute that Max Domi is ready for the start of the season. The top-6 could look something like this:

Nyquist-Roslovic-Laine
Voracek-Domi-Bjorkstrand

That isn’t bad? It is certainly not much worse than teams like Anaheim, Arizona, Buffalo, Los Angeles, or even Nashville. With Zach Werenski running the power play and a (hopefully) more forward-thinking coaching staff, could we see some good fantasy seasons here?

Roslovic was pretty good in Columbus, all things considered. Setting aside his production, he led the team in carry-in percentage (zone entries with control) and he led the team in primary shot assists per 60 minutes (comparable to other players like Jason Robertson and Vincent Trocheck). He isn’t a volume shooter, but he could rack up the assists, being comparable to seasons Ryan Johansen had a few years ago – around 15 goals and around 40 assists. That is not nothing when Roslovic will assuredly be nearly free in most fantasy drafts.

And what about Laine? Can a new coach and more ice time get him back to 30 goals? If he can play with Roslovic or Domi all year, two good playmakers, I bet that he can. Keep Columbus in mind when trying to make picks later in fantasy drafts. There could be some gold here. (aug24)

14. I think the New York Islanders are waiting to trade Josh Bailey before announcing a flood of signings. At $11M in cap space plus another $6M in LTIR, I don’t think they can fit in Anthony Beauvillier, Ilya Sorokin, Kiefer Bellows, Casey Cizikas, Zach Parise and Kyle Palmieri. They are probably about $3M shy and Bailey would free up $5M. I have a feeling that at least five of those contracts are already signed and we’ll hear about them shortly after a trade is done. (aug23)

15. I have this hunch, with absolutely no statistical backing for this whatsoever, that Oliver Ekman-Larsson regains his mojo in Vancouver. I don’t think he was giving one hundred percent those last couple of seasons with Arizona. Or rather, he was, as all top athletes do. But not with any ‘heart’. I don’t think he was into it. And now I think he is. I can see the new-team adrenalin kicking in early on and even after that wears off 15 or 20 games in, he will still have a good year. (aug23)

16. Absolutely nothing on the Nikita Gusev front. My favorite fits for him, in order:

1. Arizona Coyotes – No depth, little scoring, terrible team. He’d be the best forward.
2. Buffalo Sabres – Similar to Arizona, but assuming Eichel is moved, Mittelstadt would be the best forward. Gusev would still get into the top six.
3. San Jose Sharks – Would knock Alexander Barabanov out of the top six. Would also act as a buffer in the event Evander Kane no longer plays for them.
4. Pittsburgh Penguins – He’d have to knock Jason Zucker or Kasperi Kapanen out of the top six, but if he can produce 20 points in 35 games to start, he would then finish the season alongside Evgeni Malkin.
5. Edmonton Oilers – I don’t like this destination as much, as he’d likely play on the third line. But the thought of getting in a few shifts with Connor McDavid is pretty exciting.
6. Detroit Red Wings – Another third-line job here, but with injury-prone Robby Fabbri, Gusev would see top six ice at times.
7. Ottawa Senators – Again the third line – and this time there is no McDavid to tempt. But at least there is room and he’d get some ice time.
8. Columbus Blue Jackets – On one hand there is room for him. On the other hand, the players he would have to beat out are Gregory Hofmann or Emil Bemstrom. Quite doable, especially with Hofmann. (aug23)

17. I was reading Dobber’s Ramblings yesterday and he mentioned one specific destination for Nikita Gusev that interested me: Pittsburgh.

It seems as though the Penguins want to do what they did during their Cup runs five years ago: run three scoring lines. That would put Crosby, Malkin, and Carter as centres on three lines, provided they’re all healthy. Even with Guentzel, Rust, Kapanen, and Zucker, there are still top-9 roles to fill out. These ostensibly could go to guys like Zach Aston-Reese or Brock McGinn, but adding cheap scoring is usually never a bad idea. When everyone is health, the team could run something like:

Guentzel-Crosby-Kapanen
Zucker-Malkin-Rust
ZAR-Carter-Gusev

You can put Gusev with more responsible players while keeping him away from top matchups. That seems like a situation he could thrive in. From data via Corey Sznajder, Gusev remained a dual threat last year by being above-average by both shot rate and primary assist rate. He just isn’t very good in transition and that’s where he could use help from guys like Carter or Aston-Reese.

I still believe in Gusev’s talent and his ability to produce in the right spot. A number of teams could use him in a depth scoring role, and a team looking for another Cup like Pittsburgh could use that. (aug24)

18. Before the shortened 2020-21 season, Jonathan Marchessault had reached 200 shots in his previous three seasons. In fact, over the past four seasons, only five players have taken more shots than Marchessault. That high volume of shots is what places Marchessault in the Top 100 Roto Rankings. So I’m quite happy picking him at number 141.

Marchessault is not an elite scorer, but he has consistently ranged between 0.7 and 0.8 PTS/GP for each of the last three seasons. As well, he delivers at least one hit per game, all a part of the in-your-face style of game he plays that helps Vegas push the play into the opponent’s side of the ice. (aug22)

19. I wrote about Darnell Nurse back when he signed his eight-year extension with the Oilers. In that article, I mentioned that Nurse scored 16 goals, which was a career high. Over a full 82-game season, that would have prorated to 23 goals. That would have been quite an outlier for a defenseman whose career high over five prior seasons was 10 goals. I can understand fantasy owners being cynical that he can match that pace, which I’d have to agree with. Especially since he’s never scored 10 power-play points in a season and will also likely start the season on the Oilers’ second power-play unit.

Even if the scoring falls, Nurse provides strong peripherals. Yahoo now counts hits as a standard category, and he has reached the 100-Hit mark in each of his last six seasons. He also shoots a ton with at least 100 shots in five of his last six seasons, and he would have been on pace for over 200 last season. Whether you like it or not, plus-minus is also a standard category and he reached a career-high plus-27 last season (only Leon Draisaitl had a higher total on the Oilers). (aug22)

20. Is Neal Pionk perhaps another defenseman who is downgraded because he might be on the second power-play unit? Josh Morrissey was on the ice for 59.2% of the Jets’ power-play time last season, while Pionk was on for only 43.5%. This was the power-play distribution, even though Pionk outscored Morrissey both on the power play (10 PPP to 9 PPP) and overall (32 PTS to 21 PTS).

Like Nurse, Pionk contributes well beyond the scoring categories. Pionk also regularly reaches 100 Hits, as he has in each of the last three seasons. He also takes his share of shots, reaching 100 shots in each of the past three seasons. If Pionk is on the first-unit power play, he could be in for a monster season roto-wise. (aug22)

21. Travis Sanheim's new two-year contract with an AAV of $4.675 makes him the fourth-highest paid defenseman on the Flyers, behind Ivan Provorov and newly-acquired Ryan Ellis and Rasmus Ristolainen. Those should be the Flyers’ top four defensemen for the coming season. Yet with the Flyers also adding Keith Yandle on a one-year deal, those additions should all but remove Sanheim from any power-play time (he averaged only 33 seconds per game in 2020-21 anyway). Sanheim’s minus-22 was the second-worst on the Flyers last season, but expect that number to improve with all the offseason blueline additions. (aug22)

Have a good week, folks – be safe!!

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