It is time to continue Bubble Week in Frozen Tool Forensics. As I hope everyone has picked up on by now, Bubble Week is about trying to dig a little deeper on our 'bubble' players. The ones managers may be considering keeping or letting go. To help in our analysis we are going to look at our Bubble List's shooting percentage.

This is going to be a partially process-based article, but as is our want, I am going to start with a bit of additional process to break down how we got the data we are about to review.

We start with our ever-popular Big Board Report (via Frozen Tools) as it gives us most of the basic info we need to make some analysis. First step is to export it and then rearrange to keep the columns of interest. On top of that we need our target players. As other columnists have indicated we have a general list of players to avoid in these Bubble Week columns, so by cross referencing those with the Big Board list we can eliminate the high-flyers and are just left with the bubble players. Just for reference here are some of the ones at the top of the heap in terms of points per game.

Name	Pos	Team	GP	G	A	PTS	PTS/GP
RYAN O’REILLY	C	STL	56	24	30	54	0.96
JOE PAVELSKI	C	DAL	56	25	26	51	0.91
JAMES VAN RIEMSDYK	L	PHI	56	17	26	43	0.77
T.J. OSHIE	R	WSH	53	22	21	43	0.81
PHIL KESSEL	R	ARI	56	20	23	43	0.77

One fundamental question for deciding on a bubble player is: how repeatable was that player's performance? If you have a guy who should be better next year, and a guy who should be worse, that information might tip the scales in who you decide to keep. So for the purposes of this article I decided to use shooting percentage as one measure of sustainability.

Let's clarify something right up front though: shooting percentage by itself is a pretty blunt tool. It can be regressed and might generally be a good tool for looking at future goals, but not so much for assists – the other category when we are looking at when we review points. That means assists are a bit of a wild card in our calculations here and we also don’t have anything to account for any changes in player situation. Additionally, we could break down our stats to power-play and five-on-five to be more specific and get more accurate projections.

Alas, today it is time for a blunt instrument. We can/have/will get into more of the other tools in other articles.

So who on our list had the best shooting percentage? Well Marcus Foligno of course.

Name	Pos	Team	GP	G	A	PTS	PTS/GP	SOG	SH%
MARCUS FOLIGNO	L	MIN	39	11	15	26	0.67	40	27.5%
MICHAEL BUNTING	L	ARI	21	10	3	13	0.62	38	26.3%
BRANDON SAAD	L	COL	44	15	9	24	0.55	68	22.1%

Now that is because Marcus Foligno is a top-notch shooter right? No. He isn't. That shooting percentage is very unlikely to continue, but in order to get an idea of how unlikely it is, or how big a drop we might expect to see, we should compare it to each player's own personal shooting percentage.

In order to do that I ran another Big Board Report but instead of the 2020-21 season, I changed the timeframe (another handy feature of the reports page) and got a combined three-season report. I then could add a three-year shooting percentage (3 YR SH%) to the table as well as the delta or change from expectation.

Who had the biggest change from their three year average? Surprise, surprise Marcus Foligno.

Name	Pos	Team	GP	G	A	PTS	PTS/GP	SOG	SH%	3 YR SH%
MARCUS FOLIGNO	L	MIN	39	11	15	26	0.67	40	27.5%	13.4%	14.1%
ALEX WENNBERG	C	FLA	56	17	12	29	0.52	82	20.7%	11.0%	9.7%
J.T. COMPHER	L	COL	48	10	8	18	0.38	47	21.3%	13.7%	7.6%
BRANDON SAAD	L	COL	44	15	9	24	0.55	68	22.1%	14.6%	7.4%
VICTOR RASK	C	MIN	54	10	13	23	0.43	53	18.9%	12.3%	6.5%

For the most part these guys aren't super relevant, though the context for Alex Wennberg is certainly interesting. His 29-point season was on a shooting percentage almost double his historical one. Now he is heading to a new situation, and maybe more playing time but I am really not sure he is going to improve on a second line with Jonathan Huberdeau, so really not excited to see him on this list.

On the flip side we have players whose shooting percentage in 2020-21 was worse than their three-year average.

Name	Pos	Team	GP	G	A	PTS	PTS/GP	SOG	SH%	3 YR SH%
KYLE PALMIERI	R	NYI	51	10	11	21	0.41	115	8.7%	12.6%	-3.9%
JAMIE BENN	L	DAL	52	11	24	35	0.67	124	8.9%	12.0%	-3.1%
ANTHONY DUCLAIR	L	FLA	43	10	22	32	0.74	104	9.6%	12.4%	-2.8%
ZACH HYMAN	L	TOR	43	15	18	33	0.77	115	13.0%	15.6%	-2.6%
TANNER PEARSON	L	VAN	50	10	8	18	0.36	108	9.3%	11.6%	-2.4%

Good news for Jamie Benn and Anthony Duclair, though the arrival of Sam Bennett and then Sam Reinhart might complicate Duclair's place in the lineup a bit.

One other fun fact. There is a 10-game filter on the above tables, which leaves us with 87 players from the original list. Fifteen of those players shot below their three year average and thus might stand to gain a couple of goals in 2021-22, but a whopping 56 saw inflated shooting percentages. That is about 64 percent of the sample compared to 17 percent who shot below (the remaining players were at our about even). So I guess if there is a rule of thumb here, if you are hoping a bubble player is going to repeat their goal total….chances are they won't. It will be worse.

Let's not be all doom and gloom though, and let's also take this one step further. If we assume players had shot at their three-year averages instead, apply that scoring rate to their total shots, adjust their points per game numbers accordingly, and factor that out over a 82 game season we can come up with an adjusted pace for what their point pace 'should' have been. We can then compare that pace to their actual pace and see which players are theoretically in line for the biggest growth in 2021-22.

Name	Pos	Team	GP	G	A	PTS	PTS/GP	SOG	SH%	3 YR SH%	Δ SH%	82GP Pace	Adjusted Pace	Δ Pace
KYLE PALMIERI	R	NYI	51	10	11	21	0.41	115	8.7%	12.6%	-3.9%	34	41	7
JAMIE BENN	L	DAL	52	11	24	35	0.67	124	8.9%	12.0%	-3.1%	55	61	6
ZACH HYMAN	L	TOR	43	15	18	33	0.77	115	13.0%	15.6%	-2.6%	63	69	6
ANTHONY DUCLAIR	L	FLA	43	10	22	32	0.74	104	9.6%	12.4%	-2.8%	61	67	6
KEVIN HAYES	C	PHI	55	12	19	31	0.56	127	9.4%	11.8%	-2.3%	46	51	5
DENIS GURIANOV	R	DAL	55	12	18	30	0.55	130	9.2%	11.6%	-2.3%	45	49	4
ALEX KILLORN	L	T.B	56	15	18	33	0.59	121	12.4%	14.6%	-2.2%	48	52	4
CAM ATKINSON	R	CBJ	56	15	19	34	0.61	158	9.5%	11.3%	-1.8%	50	54	4
TANNER PEARSON	L	VAN	50	10	8	18	0.36	108	9.3%	11.6%	-2.4%	30	34	4
REILLY SMITH	R	VGK	53	14	11	25	0.47	124	11.3%	12.7%	-1.4%	39	41	2
NICK SCHMALTZ	C	ARI	52	10	22	32	0.62	105	9.5%	10.7%	-1.2%	50	52	2

Welcome to the top ten. Or as it is otherwise known, ten of the 15 total players who we would expect their shooting percentages to improve.

Zach Hyman is already getting hyped because of his move to Edmonton, but Jamie Benn looks like a surprisingly relevant player after a few down seasons. His shot rate has stabilized after sort of free falling from 2013-14 to 2016-17. He is down to shooting only about two and half times per game (2.4 actually, for three straight seasons now) and all of his other underlying numbers seem to agree with the idea that a 60ish full season pace is well within the possible range which is great news after a terrible 46 point pace in 2019-20. Age is certainly a factor to consider here, but Benn could be worth the gamble, especially if your league rewards the hits, blocks, or faceoff wins.

And just for fun and because the numbers are a bit more dramatic let's go the other way. Just a few names that maybe won't be quite as productive in 21-22.

Name	Pos	Team	GP	G	A	PTS	PTS/GP	SOG	SH%	3 YR SH%	Δ SH%	82GP Pace	Adjusted Pace	Δ Pace
MARCUS FOLIGNO	L	MIN	39	11	15	26	0.67	40	27.5%	13.4%	14.1%	55	43	-12
ALEX WENNBERG	C	FLA	56	17	12	29	0.52	82	20.7%	11.0%	9.7%	42	31	-11
JOEL ERIKSSON EK	C	MIN	56	19	11	30	0.54	119	16.0%	10.2%	5.7%	44	34	-10
RYAN O’REILLY	C	STL	56	24	30	54	0.96	129	18.6%	13.3%	5.3%	79	69	-10
BRANDON SAAD	L	COL	44	15	9	24	0.55	68	22.1%	14.6%	7.4%	45	35	-10
CONNOR BROWN	R	OTT	56	21	14	35	0.63	123	17.1%	11.8%	5.3%	51	42	-9
MILES WOOD	L	N.J	55	17	8	25	0.45	127	13.4%	8.9%	4.5%	37	29	-8
PHIL KESSEL	R	ARI	56	20	23	43	0.77	115	17.4%	12.6%	4.8%	63	55	-8
ROBBY FABBRI	C	DET	30	10	8	18	0.6	58	17.2%	12.7%	4.5%	49	42	-7
ADAM ERNE	L	DET	45	11	9	20	0.44	71	15.5%	9.8%	5.7%	36	29	-7
JOONAS DONSKOI	R	COL	51	17	14	31	0.61	86	19.8%	15.1%	4.7%	50	43	-7
DANIEL SPRONG	R	WSH	42	13	7	20	0.48	74	17.6%	13.0%	4.6%	39	32	-7
MIKAEL GRANLUND	C	NSH	51	13	14	27	0.53	74	17.6%	11.7%	5.9%	43	36	-7

That's all for now. Stay safe out there.

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