Ramblings: Bubble Keepers on Defense and in Goal (Sept 12)
Ian Gooding
2021-09-12
Continuing (or is it putting a wrap on) Bubble Keeper Week, I need to make a decision on several players on my roster last season. Yesterday it was forwards (you can check them out here), while today it's defensemen and goalies.
Although the players below probably won’t be high on the typical keeper leaguer's list, I'm hoping that you can apply the thought process on whether to keep a player to your own set of players.
Big things were expected of Morrissey after scoring at over a half point per game (0.53 PTS/GP) in 2018-19 and with several other defensemen leaving Winnipeg. However, his production has declined over each of the past two seasons. In addition, Neal Pionk has asserted himself as the top offensive-producing defenseman for the Jets, pushing Morrissey for power-play minutes in the process.
There is some thinking that the offseason additions of Nate Schmidt and Brenden Dillon could help with the shutdown minutes, which could free up Morrissey for a more offensive role. Morrissey should continue to log minutes as a top 4 defenseman, but the question is can he wrestle the top power-play job away from Pionk? Even though Morrissey averaged more power-play time (2:51 PPTOI) than Pionk (2:05 PPTOI), Pionk seems to be the odds-on favorite to earn the top power-play job.
The second-unit power play might not be such a bad place to be, though. Those who roster Nikolaj Ehlers will lament how he is never moved up to the first unit, and it looks like Pierre-Luc Dubois will be joining him on the second unit as well. Despite his second-unit power-play standing, Ehlers finished tied for third on the Jets with 13 power-play points. If the minutes can be divided up somewhat evenly, Morrissey's value might be in decent shape.
Morrissey was ineligible to be kept in my league, but I would consider adding him again. I won't say for sure, as other owners are already bidding on him (this is a slow auction league). I'd put him ahead of the next two defensemen listed below, though.
In a league where bonus points are given to defensemen, Pesce sat at or near the top of the waiver wire for several weeks before I decided to give him a shot. His overall first-half production (14 PTS in 26 GP) seemed like an outlier, but over the second half it dropped slightly to end the season at 25 points in 55 games. His season average of 0.45 PTS/GP wasn't much higher than the 0.40 PTS/GP pace he set two seasons before, though.
One key is power-play time, which Pesce started to receive in 2020-21 after three seasons of virtually none. He will never receive first-unit power play minutes, and he will have to battle newly acquired Ethan Bear for right-shot second-unit minutes. All in all, he simply doesn't have the offensive upside of other d-men Tony DeAngelo, Jaccob Slavin, or Bear (remember that Jake Gardiner is expected to miss the season following surgery).
The reality is that Pesce is a much better real-life defenseman than fantasy defenseman. He was also ineligible for me to keep him anyway, but I may try to reacquire him as a depth defenseman. Other owners have placed bids on him, so there is definitely interest, for what that's worth. (If those guys in my league are reading, I'm not tipping my hand as to whether I'll bid 😊).
Orlov isn't a superstar in fantasy leagues, but at least he's a known quantity. Over the last six seasons, he has contributed between 0.35 and 0.45 PTS/GP, which included a career-high 0.43 PTS/GP last season. That's not a huge amount, but he might be okay in the right size of league, which to me would be one with more than 12 teams and/or six defensemen.
Orlov was inconsistent in his effort to be consistent, though. Over the first half of the season, he had scored just three points (all goals) over his first 22 games. Then over the last half, he scored 19 points in 29 games, including a red-hot 10 points over his last 13 games. Power-play time had a lot to do with that, as he had averaged 1:44 PPTOI over the last quarter while averaging less than 0:30 over the first three quarters. Late-season injuries to John Carlson and Justin Schultz were the main reason for the power-play spike, so power-play time might not be money in the bank for Orlov in 2021-22.
Orlov was ineligible to be kept in my league, but I probably wasn't going to anyway. I'm going to try to catch bigger fish in the defensemen pool before I target Orlov. At this point, he's probably more likely to be a waiver-wire add at some point.
The Blues' plan at one time was for Husso to eventually become the starting goalie. Then Jordan Binnington came out of nowhere and won the Blues a Stanley Cup in his first season. Binnington hasn't been as dominant since then, but the Blues were happy enough to give him a 6 x 6 contract, cementing him as the starter. So where does that leave Husso?
Although goalies generally take longer to develop, Husso shouldn't be considered a prospect anymore now that he's 26 years of age. Since Husso has four years of AHL experience, one might assume that he's ready for the NHL. However, his first NHL season was a struggle, as he had posted a 3.21 GAA and .893 SV% in 17 games. His 41.2 QS% was similar to that of Jake Oettinger, Jonathan Quick, and even onetime Blue Jake Allen last season. Husso showed improvement near the end of the season, posting a 2.30 GAA and .921 SV% over his last three games.
Husso has his work cut out for him if he wants to put a serious dent into Binnington's workload, as Binnington was tied for third in games played last season. Husso did post a 9-6-1 record last season, so he should be a decent bet for a win as a spot starter if you need one.
Because I would have been really short on goalies, I decided to keep Husso. I know he also has trade value, as one other owner told me I had outbid him on Husso last season.
Backups on strong teams are worth streaming for the days they start, especially when sites like Goalie Post help us determine when they will actually start. Elliott is in that spot in Tampa Bay, behind workhorse starter and fantasy hockey's top goalie in Andrei Vasilevskiy.
Overall, the 36-year-old Elliott should be at least a slight upgrade to Curtis McElhinney, whose 2020-21 numbers were simply not good (4-6-2, 3.09 GAA, .875 SV%), especially for the back-to-back Stanley Cup champions. McElhinney proved that a contending team can have a backup goalie you should probably stay away from when he starts.
If Vasilevskiy eventually wears down from back-to-back Stanley Cup runs within less than 12 months, the the Lightning might have to go with the veteran. There's also Maxime Lagace, who could push Elliott for starts in this scenario. Assuming Elliott has something left in the tank, then there's real short-term value. It's hard to say if he does, because the defense in Philly last season was a disaster and that reflected on his numbers (3.06 GAA, .889 SV%, -14.10 GSAA).
In the end, I thought about keeping Elliott because wins count in my league. However, there's simply not enough starts here to justify a regular roster spot.
You can argue that many goalies have at least a little bit of value, whether it be in terms of volume (starts which can lead to saves and wins) or performance (ratios such as GAA and SV%, or simply fewer goals allowed). However, I'm having a hard time trying to find either of those for Rittich.
After forcing his way into a timeshare in Calgary, Big Save Dave was pushed to the side when the Flames signed free agent Jacob Markstrom. Eventually Rittich was traded to Toronto, where he was used sparingly, then signed by the Predators to be a backup to Juuse Saros.
Failing a Saros injury, don't expect Rittich to play a whole lot aside from maybe back-to-backs. Nashville is probably a borderline playoff team at best, which means that unlike Elliott you're probably not going to target him for a lot of spot starts. But who knows – some goalies play better in limited duty, so we'll have to wait and see if that happens to Rittich. For now, I have absolutely no reason to keep him.
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Finally, since I'm a multisport fantasy player, happy Week 1 of NFL season! For those of you who play fantasy football, make sure your fantasy roster is set for 1 pm ET (or 10 am, where I live). Yes, that's an early start for me, but I've usually eaten my breakfast by the time the early games start.
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For more fantasy hockey discussion, or to reach out to me, you can follow me on Twitter @Ian_Gooding