Ramblings: Best Ball; Kaliyev; Kakko; Fiala; Josi, and more – September 16

Michael Clifford

2021-09-16

One housekeeping note about fantasy drafts.

Over the last couple years, I've talked in my Ramblings about Best Ball leagues. They are very, very popular in NFL fantasy circles and I hope they start cropping up more for NHL.

In short, a best ball league has no transactions. You draft a team at the start of the year, and that's your entire roster. Now, you may only count half the players' point totals towards final standings, or three-quarters, but there are no trades and waiver wires. You set your lineup every day, week, or once a year, and it is a good way to practice early drafting without having to manage a team all year. You also have skin in the game.

Over at Underdog Fantasy – no sponsorship here, I just personally like the site – they have best ball leagues up for NHL. They start at 6-person drafts for $3 each and it goes up to 12-team, $50 drafts. There is also one big $10 tournament, sort of as an overall prize.

For anyone who finds that managing several fantasy teams in-season can get overwhelming, this is the perfect alternative. There aren't many rounds, you don't have to manage the roster, and you can play for as low as $3. Not bad at all. Hope to see some of you in there.

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A couple days ago in these Ramblings, I started a series looking at each team, and selecting a player from each team to talk about. It is an attempt to talk about relevant players from each roster, looking for some value, and getting my thoughts about this draft season out there. We're only a month away from the start of the regular season, so it's getting to the most important part of the fantasy season now.

Today, we're going to go through another batch of teams. Remember that these are only players that I'm higher on than their current Yahoo ADPs/draft rates. These could vary league to league, depending on settings, keepers, or a host of other issues.

Los Angeles – Arthur Kaliyev: It has been a common refrain that the Los Angeles Kings have lots of prospects coming and their cupboard is stocked. That is true, but it doesn't get to the question that is important for us: which prospects will be helpful for 2021-22, and how much? The signing of Phillip Danault proves an impediment for guys like Rasmus Kupari and Quinton Byfield, their future centres – it takes away the potential of a top-6 role. The Kings don't have (m)any high-end left-shot forwards, so if Kaliyev can ball out in training camp, he could get a big role here. Kaliyev led the AHL team last year – that had Kupari, and Turcotte, and Byfield, and Thomas, and Fagemo – in points by five and put up 2.75 shots per game. All this as a 19-year-old. If he had a good offseason of training, I think he can at least start in the top-9, and could move up as the season wears on.

Minnesota – Kevin Fiala: Fiala finished the season on an absolute tear, posting 22 points in 20 games. Looking at a bigger sample, Fiala has averaged 68 points every 82 games over the last two years. He is now 25 years old, firmly in his prime, and the team around him should be better this year with the full-time addition of Marco Rossi. The ongoing problem is Fiala is likely going to not get one of Rossi or Joel Eriksson Ek as a centre, and there are only so many good centres on this team. All the same, Fiala had a very good year last year playing with Victor Rask and Ryan Hartman. He can do so again, and if all goes right, we'll see him with his first career 30-goal season. Should the team ever deem him worthy of playing with top-6 NHLers, he has immense upside, and I would like to see that someday. Just beware that he doesn't bring much in the way of hits.

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Montreal – Josh Anderson: There are problems with Anderson's on-ice game and the Habs need to iron those out. But, uh, this guy put up 17 goals, 125 shots, and 139 hits in 52 games last year. That works out to 27 goals, 197 shots, and 219 hits in a full season. Those are straight up better than Tom Wilson numbers, and Tom Wilson is going a few rounds ahead of Anderson. Now, I get that it's just one season with Montreal, but Anderson had seasons of 17/118/147, 19/188/109, and 27/230/214 in Columbus. To say that Anderson is a very real threat for 25 goals, 200 shots, and 225 hits is a true statement. Also, unlike Wilson, you don't have to bake in 10 games' worth of suspensions every time you draft Anderson in the regular season. The centre situation in Montreal is a bit of a concern, but even if Anderson doesn't score 25 goals, the peripherals are likely to be enough to ensure this isn't a flop of a pick.

Nashville – Roman Josi: The one big knock on Josi has always been his hit totals. He has never had a season with more than 80 hits, and he has 132 over his last 199 games. It doesn't seem realistic to assume that we can get more than 50 hits out of him in an 82-game season. But I see Josi being drafted around the 10th defenceman off the board, and that's the best we can do for a guy who paced for 57 points last year, and that was a bad year? It seems as if Josi has an off year, he'll be good for nearly three shots a night and 50 points. That's a bad year. And he's going later than Dougie Hamilton – who is on a brand new (and worse) team – and Morgan Rielly, the guy who doesn't shoot or hit? It doesn't make a lot of sense to me. Any sort of rebound season here sees a 60-point season. Think of that! How certain are we that he'll be worse than even Victor Hedman? This feels like a good season to not draft a defenceman early if this is the case.

New Jersey – Jack Hughes: This is it. This is the season. This is when Jack Hughes cements himself as an elite centre. I get that we've said that before – and even about young New Jersey centres, specifically – but Hughes has the stats to back it up. According to Corey Sznajder's data, in 2021, he had a similar shooting/playmaking profile to Patrice Bergeron and Mikko Rantanen. That was a year after being inside the 97th percentile of neutral zone transition play. This year, his closest comparables for zone-entry rate with control were Brayden Point, Leon Draisaitl, and Kirill Kaprizov. The problem will be the lack of high-end wingers to play with, but this should be the season we see Hughes scratching the surface of his upside. Owners need to beware of his lack of hits, but other than that, it should be a good season from him.

NY Islanders – Kyle Palmieri: The nice thing is that, at least for now, Palmieri is being greatly undervalued because of one bad season. This guy averaged 30 goals every 82 games from 2015 through 2020, had one season where he shot a career-low 8.7 percent, and now he's an afterthought. Re-signing with the Islanders was big because that likely keeps him on the top line with Mathew Barzal now that Jordan Eberle is gone. That should mean more minutes than the 14 a night he got when he was traded to Brooklyn. It should be noted that even in his bad season, he would have still reached 15 goals, 170 shots, and 100 hits. That is not nothing. If there's a rebound here fuelled by better line mates and more ice time, on top of a natural rebound, maybe there's a big season waiting. I will definitely be buying at the draft table.

NY Rangers – Kaapo Kakko: The problem with drafting Alexis Lafrenière is that the left side of the Rangers' forward group remains stocked with Artemi Panarin and Chris Kreider. The loss of Pavel Buchnevich means the right side is wide open for competition. One of the guys from the left may slide over, but it still leaves Kakko fighting with the likes of Kravtsov and Blais for a top-6 role. Regardless of which line he starts on, if Kakko starts in the top-6, that gives him a leg up. We just saw Buch put up 48 points in 54 games with a top-6 role that didn't include loads of PP minutes. Kakko improved his defence, his shot rate, and his transition play, all in one year. It was a big leap for him from a bad rookie year, and I think we see another leap from him this year. Like Hughes, the hits will be lacking and that's an issue. I do think we see a breakout from Kakko, though, and he'll be a bench option for me in some leagues.

Ottawa – Drake Batherson: I won't spend a long time here because I wrote extensively about him a week ago. He is being drafted in the Jeff Carter/Cam Atkinson/Alex Killorn tier, and I think he has more upside in hits leagues than all of them. I'm in.

Philadelphia – Joel Farabee: I will say the same for Farabee because I also wrote quite a bit about him last month. I do find it interesting that both him and Atkinson have relatively the same ADP. It kind of tells me that owners don't know which way the wind will blow, and that seems fair right now. I still think Farabee has more upside but it's definitely a conversation now.

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