Welcome back to another edition of the Roos Lets Loose monthly mailbag, where I answer your fantasy hockey questions by giving advice that should be useful to all poolies even if they don't own the specific players being discussed. As a reminder, if you want your fantasy hockey question(s) answered in the next mailbag, check out the end of the column, where I explain the ways to get it/them to me and as well as the details you should provide when sending. The earlier you send a question the more likely it is to be included in the mailbag, and the deeper dive I can provide with my reply.

You'll notice the mailbag is less full this month, likely due to it being still pretty early in the season. Be sure to take advantage and submit a question for next month though, since as you'll see, when there are fewer questions I really can provide detailed answers. Even in the months when the mailbag fills up, avid readers know I still always provide plenty of insight and information in my answers.

Question #1 (from Ken)

As I write this question, I'm sitting in 2nd place in my points-only (PPPts worth two points) keep six league. My main underperformers are Cole Caufield and Jeff Petry. My other subpar skaters are Jonathan Toews, Tomas Tatar, Kasperi Kapanen, and Anthony Beauviller. Other teams have already started to make trades, while thus far I've stood pat. My question is do I cut bait with Petry and/or Caufield, trading them for whatever I can get? What about the others? Or do you think I should continue to be patient?

First things first, you're in second place, so obviously things are going well. Sure you have a few players who aren't performing; but you're doing better than most, so best to avoid pressing the panic button.

You should definitely wait on Petry. He's one of maybe a handful of defensemen who is his team's chief source of blueline offense and with a complete lock on PP1 time, what with Shea Weber out for at least this season and no one else – sorry Sami Niku and Alexander Romanov – a threat to step up. Need more convincing? Name another rearguard who, like Petry, had 11+ goals in each of the past four seasons. Give up? That's because there aren't any others – he's the only one! He's quietly become a very solid blueline producer. Yes, his goal-scoring acumen doesn't give you added benefit in points-only; but with PPPts weighted double and Petry locked in as the PP1 QB, he's bound to pay dividends. Although he did go nine games without a single point to start the season, there was a stretch in 2020-21 when he logged a point only once in a seven-game stretch, so these things happen, particularly when Montreal as a team is struggling to put pucks in the net. Keep him and he will come around.

Caufield was someone I worried was being overhyped before he was recently sent to the AHL. Yes, he oozes with talent; but if we go back to 2000-01 and look at rookie wingers age 20+ not drafted in the first round, the ones who fared best were Mark Stone and Ondrej Palat, each of whom was 22 years old, or two years Caufield's senior. The best performance by someone comparable was Alex Debrincat, who posted 52 points also at age 20. Moreover, even if he had fared well, Caufield probably would not have been a keeper for you. Six is not a large number, depending on how many total players are rostered. If this was a true dynasty and/or a league where 300-400+ players are owned and 12+ are kept, then it would be short sighted to get rid of Caufield. But with only six keeps he most likely would not have made the cut by the end of the season even before his demotion. Ironically, his demotion might be the best thing to happen to him, as it could light a fire under him and he still might end up returning to the Habs this season as after all they've already burned a year of his ELC. I'd hold and hope, but go ahead and drop him if you're a nonbeliever or if there is a surer thing on the waiver wire.

As for the other four, I like Tatar because he has shown enough to prove he's a solid producer and his contract puts him squarely in the top six. He might be faring poorly because Jack Hughes is out. As for Beauvillier, every year he's supposed to figure things out and so far he hasn't. Still, he finds a way to run red hot at least once or twice a season, so he's a decent own if you can stash him on your bench until he heats up. With Toews, I worry whatever happened to him last year might have made it so he won't ever be the same caliber of player again. He's still a name though, which is key; he's safe to trade. Kapanen is struggling because Evgeni Malkin, his normal center, is hurt. However, Kapanen is someone I'd be hesitant to jettison, as last season he looked like he was starting to really figure things out. Yes, he's unlikely to land a spot on PP1 once everyone is healthy, but I still like his upside and the fact the Pens paid a hefty price to land him, so I'd likely keep him. If you need to decide between Kapanen and Beauvillier though, I'd probably go with Beauvillier just because when he's "on" he's gold for 5-15 games and then when he's not he can be stapled to your bench, whereas Kapanen's production might not be as predictable plus Malkin is out for a while and who knows if he'll get hurt yet again. Good luck!

Question #2 (from Stewart)

For a points-only keeper, who do you believe is the better player to own for the long term: Morgan Frost or Kirill Marchenko?

Of the two, Frost has been and remains more highly touted. If it wasn't for him having suffered an injury and contracting COVID he likely would've played in the NHL last season and already be a fixture in Philly. As it stands though, he's in the AHL. But I still think he's in their near term plans, as although Sean Couturier signed a big deal to remain a Flyer he could ultimately center a more defensively responsible second line, and Claude Giroux already is frequently playing wing, and that assumes he stays with the Flyers, as he's a UFA after this season. Either way, Frost is envisioned as a future top six center.

Marchenko had a solid 2020-21 in the KHL at age 21. His deal is up after this season so chances are the Blue Jackets ink him to an ELC and he joins them in the spring. The issue he'd face, though, is Columbus lacks talent down the middle. I mean when you had Patrik Laine playing with Boone Jenner, that kind of speaks for itself. Even with Laine and Jack Roslovic to re-sign, Columbus will have cap space to land a top center, if one wants to play in what's not really a hockey hotbed. Still, there is a chance Marchenko could decide to stay in the KHL, fearing he wouldn't be walking into a favorable situation. Also, Frost has already tasted NHL action in two different seasons and didn't seem overwhelmed, while we don't know for certain if/when Marchenko would be with the Blue Jackets or how he would fare.

I think Frost is the safer bet because of his previous NHL experience plus his ability to find his footing and learn from the likes of Giroux and Couturier before coming into his own, whereas Marchenko might be without a decent center to help him thrive. Still, we can't look past the fact that wingers are generally preferred versus centers due to the latter being a deeper position in fantasy. In this case, unless your team is very shallow at wing I'd still say Frost is the better option of the two. Good luck!

Question #3 (from DobberHockey Forums)

I'm in a ten team Cap ($81.5M, using total salary, not AAV) keeper (Year Long + Bonus Playoff Pool). Scoring categories are G(1), A(1), +/-(1), W(2), SO(2), OTL(1) and rosters are 12F, 6D, 1G, plus 4 Bench spots. Keepers are 7F, 3D, 1G, 1 FLEX(F/D/G). Maximum starts are F=984, D=492, G=82 (i.e., 82 games per roster spot), and players who are dropped have 25% of their salaries retained.

 My current roster, with 21-22 salaries and 22-23 salaries, consists of: Mitch Marner ($10.358M; $8M), Jonathan Huberdeau ($5.3M, $6.2M), Quinton Byfield ($0.925M, $0.925M), Kirill Kaprizov ($5M, $10M), Trevor Zegras ($0.925M, $0.925M), Joel Farabee ($0.925M, $3M), Oliver Wahlstrom ($0.925M, $0.832M), Conor Garland ($3.75M, $4M), Kaapo Kakko ($0.925M, Unknown), JT Miller ($6M, $4.5M), Johnny Gaudreau ($6.75M, Unknown), Elias Lindholm ($5.85M, $3.85M), Marco Rossi ($0.925M, $0.925M), Eetu Luostarinen ($0.925m, Unknown), Aaron Ekblad ($9M, $6M), Torey Krug ($4M, $8M), Morgan Rielly ($5M, $8M), Gustav Forsling ($2M, $2.5M), Tony DeAngelo ($1M, Unknown), Nils Lundkvist ($0.925M, $0.925M), Calen Addison ($0.842M, $0.750M), Igor Shesterkin ($3M, $6M), and Thatcher Demko ($2.5M, $4.5M). All of my bench spots are full and I'm within 350k of the cap limit; so all moves would have to be replacing a player and taking into account the 25% drop penalty.

As I write this, my team has a comfortable lead, but I still have some concerns. Are there any areas that stand out to you as being able to upgrade, or players in particular that would be worth keeping an eye on their performance to see if their salary could be better spent elsewhere? Who would be your presumed keepers for next season? The reason I'm asking for insight into the keepers is I'm trying to figure out who potentially is on the trade/drop block, whether I have room for any/many/all of my ELC prospects as keepers, and/or if the bench spots I'm devoting to them would be better being left empty, using their salaries to upgrade to players that may have more of an impact this season while trying to win. I know a few players on my roster have no contracts for next year but if someone like DeAngelo or Kakko would be a keeper if his salary is X or under please feel free to include them as value is important in keepers but so too is securing the best possible players that would give me an advantage. There are lots of salary-friendly contracts to be found in a ten team league. I feel like my goaltending is in a good spot in terms starts and value but if you think otherwise I am happy to listen.

I'm not sure if it will help with your answers, but here are some of the available players that might be worth looking into while contending, as well as a few prospects that are still available if they would be an upgrade: Mason McTavish, William Eklund, Cole Perfetti, Matt Boldy, Alex Newhook, Jacob Bryson, Joe Veleno (all of whom are on ELCs), Vladimir Tarasenko ($9.5M), Robert Thomas ($2.4M), Cam Atkinson ($5.275M), Troy Terry ($1.45M), Isac Lundestrom ($0.874M), Sammy Blais ($1.6M), Dylan Larkin ($6.75M), Andrew Copp ($3.64M), John Tavares ($9.35M), Timo Meier ($6M), Jesper Fast ($2M), Rasmus Asplund ($0.775M), Drake Batherson ($2.5M), Patrik Laine ($7.5M), Pierre-Luc Dubois ($6.65M), Evgeni Kuznetsov ($8M), Alex Tuch ($4.75M), Jack Eichel ($10M), Rasmus Andersson ($4.05M), Oliver Kylington ($0.750M), Juuso Valimaki ($1.1M), Roman Josi ($10.75M), Radko Gudas ($2.5M), Justin Braun ($1.8M), Marcus Pettersson ($4.025M), Simon Benoit ($0.842M), Thomas Chabot ($7M), Juuse Saros ($4M), Jordan Binnington ($4M), Jacob Markstrom ($4M), John Gibson ($6.4M), Tristan Jarry ($3.5M), and Linus Ullmark ($3.5M).

Congrats on your strong start, and for not resting on your laurels. Too many poolies who jump out to an early lead go on auto-pilot, missing ways to improve their team while other GMs are being proactive. Still though, as the old adage says you don't want to fix what isn't broken; if you're going to tinker with a team which is doing well, you need a reason to do so and to make the right move(s).

One thing that jumps out is there are some solid players available with reasonable cap hits, like Saros, Jarry, Markstrom, Terry, Copp, and Batherson. I can see perhaps why the goalies are there, since only one starts and there is an 82 max games limit. However, these are very good goalies and the skaters are of a caliber that I think they should be rostered on someone's team. Should it be yours? Let's try to figure that out.

The cheapest of the three is Terry, and if you can make the cap ramifications work then I'd definitely drop Luostarinen and Wahlstrom to grab him. He should easily outscore both of them and I don't see Luo or Wahlstrom as keepers, so there's no apparent downside.

Another option is to trade a player who (a) will be very expensive next season, and (b) won't hurt you too much if he's dealt. The two who might fit that bill are Kaprizov and Rielly. Kaprizov's $10M cap hit starting next season will be a lot for a someone who, although supremely talented, is on a team without any true #1 centers and gets less than 20:00 per game. He will be a point per game player in his career; but I'm not sure it'll be soon enough to stomach a $10M cap hit. Rielly is frustrating to own because he has the talent to be a consistent 60-70 point defenseman, but he's just too unselfish and not focused on things that benefit a fantasy team. You could trade one for a lower priced player, who will enable you to keep that player plus get Terry, or, if you prefer and the economics work, Batherson or Copp.

If you somehow are unable to trade either Kaprizov or Rielly, or you don't want to do so, and the cap economics of dropping Wahlstrom and Luo for Terry doesn't work, then you probably have to roll with what you have right now and hope for the best. There's no one else you can afford to drop, both in the literal sense, due to the associated cap penalty, and figuratively, because you need their contributions to stay competitive.

The issue, of course, is what you'll do with whichever – or both – of Rielly and Kaprizov if they're not traded, plus Gaudreau, who, if he keeps up his early season pace, should be close to a $9-10M player for 2021-22 and beyond. I think you best address the issues of all their ballooning salaries by probably not keeping any of them.

Who do you keep then? If Shesterkin continues his stellar play, he could be a keep even with his salary set to double. Demko is a very tempting keep as well. It might be you retain them both and use your flex spot for the second one. Defensemen keepers should be Ekblad, DeAngelo, and Lundqvist, who should take a nice step next season with his first NHL campaign under his belt. Forwards are a bit tougher. I see six easy keeps in Marner, Lindholm Huberdeau, Miller, Zegras and Rossi. The name that stands out is Rossi, who I realize is not even in the NHL now. But the key is Rossi has yet to trigger even one season of his ELC, and he will instantly have a spot in the Wild top six once he does reach the NHL. Unless Rossi is stuck all season in the AHL and fares poorly I think he has to be one of the seven.

After that it gets a bit sticky, as I can see a case being made for Byfield, Kappo, Farabee, Garland, and the player(s) you get via the trade/drop scenarios outlined above. I think Farabee has great things in store, but not soon enough given his salary is more than tripling. Kakko being off his ELC makes him less attractive, plus I have concerns he still doesn't look like a star in the making. Garland is scoring despite a drop in ice time and not being on PP1. His salary also is palatable. Byfield could be very good, or could need a few seasons to gel. Terry, assuming you get him, also has a lot of lure since he seems like he's coming into his own. To me it boils down to Byfield, Garland, and Terry, plus, perhaps, the player you'd get in trade if you do make a trade. I think Terry is worth the risk, unless he cools. Of course if Garland's ice times improve he'd be in the mix, as would Byfield if he lights things up after returning from injury. The other option is to only retain only one goalie and an eighth forward; however, after looking at your skater options I'm convinced that keeping both netminders is the way to go. That means bank on the six forwards I mentioned then wait and decide on the seventh. I also like this keeper group because it will leave you with some cap flexibility to obtain some valuable players who might be too expensive for other teams to own. Good luck!

Question #4 (from Adam)

What’s the deal with Anton Khudobin? He’s got to be a better option than Braden Holtby, so why isn’t he getting any opportunities? Would any of Petr Mrazek, Jaroslav Halak, Alex Nedeljkovic, Thomas Greiss, James Reimer, or Laurent Brossoit make more sense to own in a league where only wins and shutouts count?

Khudobin had spent essentially his entire career as a back-up, and one of the better ones in the league. But then in 2019-20 he had his best regular season and followed that with 14 wins in the Stanley Cup playoffs. Fortuitous timing, as he was a UFA that summer. His performance convinced the Stars to ink him to a three-year deal paying him $3.33M per season, presumably as Ben Bishop's back-up.

But less than a month after Khudobin was signed it was announced Bishop would need surgery and be out for a minimum of five months, thrusting Khudobin into the role of starter. How did he fare? In all, pretty good, as his SV% was down but his QS% was on par with his normal rate; but he was somewhat overshadowed by the strong, sooner than expected, performance of top goalie prospect Jake Oettinger.

That left Dallas with the dilemma of how to deal with goaltending for 2021-22, with Bishop iffy at best to return, Oettinger perhaps not ready for a full time role, plus waivers exempt, and Khudobin as someone they perhaps didn't see as their full time starter. Enter Braden Holtby, whom Dallas inked for a bargain rate of $2M per season following his poor performance with Vancouver over the past two seasons. To the surprise of many, it's been Holtby who's emerged as the 1A in Dallas. To muddy the netminder waters even more, Ben Bishop might be able to return this season.

But you probably already knew most of that. Where does this leave Khudobin? First and foremost, he's not going anywhere unless Bishop returns and proves he's healthy or both he and Holtby fare poorly enough for the Stars to bring up Oettinger. The magic question is if Holtby can stay in top form. Let's not forget, Holtby is younger than Khudobin by a couple of years and, at his peak, was a top netminder, so him outperforming Khudobin, though unexpected, isn't implausible. And Holtby could very well continue to play at a high level for the entire 2021-22 season, perhaps inspired by the change of scenery coupled with the sense of competition. That would leave Khudobin as a 1B or pure back-up, which, let's not forget, is pretty much what he's been his entire career until he cashed in as a UFA and then didn't take the ball and run with it last season when given the chance to be "the guy" in the Dallas net. As for Bishop, if he is able to return, presumably that could mean Khudobin gets moved; but such a trade probably would not result in an upgrade in playing time, unless it was to a team which lost its starter for an extended period.

All this having been said, none of the other goalies you listed seem like they're clear-cut upgrades over Khudobin. All are iffier and/or are locked into being a back-up. Nedeljkovic is intriguing; yet Detroit seems to want to be patient with him, meaning he and Greiss should start a similar number of games for a still not great Wings team. Mrazek looked like he had a shot to be in the starter mix for Toronto; but Jack Campbell has fared very well and Mrazek has already been injured, which likely cost him his shot at trying to stake a claim to be the 1A for Toronto.

If this is a keeper, I might gamble on Neds. Otherwise, I'd stick with Khudobin because although things haven't worked out as they seemed like they would for those who own him, I still think he's likely to get the most wins and shutouts among the goalies you listed. Good luck!

Question #5 (from Vincent)

I've been in the same league (12 team, keep 3, points-only, 3C, 3LW, 3RW, 4D, 2G, plus 4 bench) for several years, and people have settled into familiar patterns. But this season everyone seemed to be "stacking" their teams with forwards on the same lines. What's your opinion about stacking?

I feel like the best way to assess stacking is to look at a stat called point pairs, which is the number of times two players shared a point on the same ES goal. The higher the point pairs for two players, then presumably the more attractive they'd be for stacking. Here's a link to a site that tracks, among other things, point pairs. The last two seasons did not feature 82 games, so let's look at the stats for 2017-18 and 2018-19, as although the results are not as relevant for today as they were two seasons ago, they still should provide a better assessment of stacking than looking at the last two incomplete campaigns.

What we see in looking at 2017-18 is only three pairs of players who shared points on over 41 ES goals, versus 16 who shared points on 36-40 ES goals and another 18 who shared point on 30-35 ES goals. Compare that to 2018-19, where 16 pairs shared points on 41+ ES goals, versus just three for 36-40 ES goals and 12 for 30-35 ES goals. For 2017-18 a total of 37 pairs of players shared points on 30+ goals, versus 31 for 2018-19. What, then, does this data tell us? For one, the effectiveness of stacking is not something that's very constant, as although the total number of pairs who had points on 30+ goals was pretty close for both seasons, the difference at the top was quite significant.

How much season-to-season variation is there? Let's examine how the top 20 forward point pairs on ES goals from 2017-18 ended up faring in 2018-19. Note that 12th place is omitted because it was a forward and a defenseman, as is 14th place because it was the Sedins, who retired after 2017-18, as is 18th place because the duo was no longer on the same team in 2018-19.

2017-18 ES Point Pair Leaders (with ranking)	Ranking for same pair in 2018-19
Nikita Kucherov and Steven Stamkos (1st)	7th
Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen (2nd)	2nd
Phil Kessel and Evgeni Malkin (3rd)	10th
Brad Marchand and David Pastrnak (4th)	13th
Johnny Gaudreau and Sean Monahan (5th)	4th
Anze Kopitar and Dustin Brown (6th)	32nd
Claude Giroux and Sean Couturier (7th)	23rd
Claude Giroux and Jakub Voracek (8th)	84th
William Karlsson and Jonathan Marchessault (9th)	57th
Mark Scheifele and Blake Wheeler (10th)	6th
Nathan MacKinnon and Gabriel Landeskog (11th)	15th
Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl (13th)	1st
William Karlsson and Reilly Smith (15th)	99th
Patrice Bergeron and Brad Marchand (16th)	5th
Sebastian Aho and Teuvo Teravainen (17th)	14th
Jamie Benn and Tyler Seguin (19th)	35th
Ryan Getzlaf and Rickard Rakell (20th)	187th

It turns out that only nine pairs of forwards (i.e., barely half) of the 17 listed here for 2017-18 were within the top 20 for 2018-19 as well. Also, just five pairs saw their ranking stay the same or improve from 2017-18 to 2018-19, while more than twice that number (i.e., 11) saw their rankings fall, with seven of those ten seeing their ranking drop by at least double digits.

Given all this, where do I stand on stacking as a strategy in fantasy hockey? First and foremost, for stacking to work two separate things both have to happen, namely the pair of forwards in question has to (1) stay together on the same line, and (2) remain productive. Sure, stacking Boston and Colorado forwards would've been a winning formula the past several seasons; but look at what happened to the Vegas and Calgary pairs since 2018-19. And the once seemingly inseparable – and very productive – duo of Kucherov and Stamkos were split apart for much of 2019-20. The truth is you never can tell what will happen, so stacking is a gamble.

Beyond that, if one forward you've stacked gets hurt, it's arguably more of a blow than had you not stacked. Look at folks who paid a premium for Brayden Point to complement Nikita Kucherov, thinking they'd replicate their magic from the 2021 playoffs. As if losing Kucherov for a couple of months wasn't bad enough, presumed top tier production from Point has been put on hold.

Moreover, the smaller the league in terms of number of forwards in your starting line-ups, the more that stacking represents a risk/reward strategy because you're putting a higher percentage of your eggs in one basket, so to speak. The same would apply for H2H leagues, where if the stacked forwards do poorly you're more apt to lose your week, although in fairness the converse would be true, such that it could win you match-ups.

If you're eager to try stacking, I'd start by doing so in leagues where the stakes aren't high, to see if it's something you think works for you. Or another way to dip your toes in the stacking water is to use it as a tiebreaker of sorts, where if you're deciding between two seemingly similar forwards perhaps in at least one case opt for the one who'd create a stacking opportunity and see how it goes.

As for this particular league, 228 players are owned, so it's not shallow but also not super deep. What's also key is it's only a keep three, which means what do you do if you find a successful stack – do you use two of only three spots to keep both stacked players, especially given the numbers in the table? Where I might consider stacking here is in making trades, as usually if a stack is working for a team they won't tinker with it during the same season, making it so the biggest risk is injury. Otherwise, for this league I'd be wary of stacking keepers or drafting with stacking specifically in mind. Good luck!

One added note – I figure since I'm talking about stacking I might as well discuss about the other "hot" fantasy hockey trend, namely the "zero goalie" strategy. For those unfamiliar, this doesn't mean not taking goalies in a literal sense, but instead waiting for others to reach for them while you prioritize drafting skaters, and then you grab goalies in the mid to late rounds of your draft.

I think "zero goalie" can work in smaller leagues, especially since lately it's getting more difficult to predict how successful all but a few goalies will be in a given season. But in deeper leagues, or ones where three goalies start, you could put yourself in a bind if you go this route. Here too, best to try this out in leagues of lesser importance to see if it works for you, and under which circumstances.

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For those reading this now, it's never too early to start providing me with mailbag questions, which you can do in one of two ways: (1) by emailing them to [email protected] with the words "Roos Mailbag" as the subject line, or (2) by sending them to me via a private message on the DobberHockey Forums, where my username is "rizzeedizzee".

When sending me your questions, remember to provide as much detail about your league/situation as possible. Examples of things I need to know include what type of league you're in (i.e., limited keeper, dynasty, or one-year; roto vs H2H; auction – if so, what the budget is – or non-auction), how many teams are in the league, does the salary cap matter, how many players are rostered (and of those, how many start at each position as well as how many bench and/or IR spots there are), what categories are scored and how are they weighted, plus other details if pertinent. If your question involves whether to pick up or drop a player, give me a list of top free agents available and let me know if the number of pick-ups is limited or if there is a priority system for pick-ups. If you're thinking of making a trade, it would be good to know not only the roster of the other team you might trade with but also where you stand in your categories. If your question involves keepers, in addition to giving me the options for who to keep, let me know if offseason trading is allowed and to what extent it is a viable option given your league. In sum, the key is to tell me enough for me to give you a truly proper answer, and for readers of this column to benefit from the answer/advice I provide. When in doubt, it's best to err on the side of inclusion since I can always omit or disregard things that don't matter.