Every Sunday, we share 21 Fantasy Rambles from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s 'Daily Ramblings'.

Writers/Editors: Ian Gooding, Michael Clifford, Alexander MacLean, and Dobber

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1. It’s time to turn the calendar to April, which means that we are now in the final month of the regular season. That might mean you are in a do-or-die head-to-head playoff matchup. Or the opposite, where you are already eliminated or you are waiting for your key matchup to start. If you fall into one of those latter categories and need your fantasy fix, why not give daily fantasy a go? Sure enough, Frozen Tools now has you covered for that with thousands of simulations run instantaneously to provide you with the most optimized lineup for DraftKings. If you order now, get $20 off! (apr1)

2. I used the Featured Optimized Lineups tool to give me a start in constructing a DFS lineup last Thursday. That lineup was good enough to turn my remaining $4 balance at DraftKings into a $30 prize.

In case you’re wondering how I won, I’ve also been picking up tips from Steve Dotzel by editing and posting his articles without actually playing much daily fantasy. If you regularly play any kind of DFS, you should also be reading his articles, which you can find here. They appear early Saturday morning, so check back shortly if today’s article isn’t on the site yet. This week, he explains the difference between using the optimizer on Frozen Tools and stacking lineups.

Steve’s strategy mainly focuses on four-player and three-player stacks of players from the same team, while mixing in a goalie and a cheap power-play plug with the remaining slots. Although I didn’t follow that strategy to a tee, the lineup I used is below. Keep in mind that these aren’t necessarily the best options on each team – just what seemed to best fit my budget along with a few players recommended by the Frozen Tools DFS Customizer.

Major stack: Toronto (Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, William Nylander, Mark Giordano)
Minor stack: Pittsburgh (Evgeni Malkin, Bryan Rust)
Remaining players: Ville Heinola, Jake DeBrusk
Goalie: Semyon Varlamov

All of these players with the exception of Heinola recorded a point. He was recommended because he had been hot with points in each of his previous four games. I was lucky enough to benefit from the Leafs’ seven-goal game and to a lesser extent, the Bruins’ eight-goal outburst. A win from Varlamov over the Blue Jackets didn’t hurt either. Same with Malkin’s overtime goal assisted by Rust. (apr2)

3. Auston Matthews is the first player to score 50 goals this season. He has also reached that 50-goal milestone for the first time in his career. I would love to report that it was a highlight-reel goal, but no – it was an empty-netter to seal a 7-3 win for the Maple Leafs against the Hurricanes on Thursday. Entering Saturday action, he was a near sure thing to score a goal, hitting the twine 42 times in the last 45 games dating back to November 24. That’s like taking candy from a baby if you play any kind of daily fantasy. (apr1)

4. Petr Mrazek will be out a minimum of six weeks with a groin injury. That should effectively end his fantasy season, so you can officially drop him if you’ve been holding out hope that he’ll turn it around. Erik Kallgren should continue to see starts and Jack Campbell returned on Saturday. The Leafs goaltending situation continues to be perilous and a constant source of worry for their fanbase entering the playoffs. (apr1)

5. Also the victim of a season-ending injury, Clayton Keller‘s season is over. The Coyotes confirmed that he has a fractured leg and will need a 4-6-month recovery, which means he will likely be ready in time for the 2022-23 regular season. He finishes the season with 28 goals and 63 points in 67 games. The 28 goals and 0.94 PTS/GP are both career highs for him. In case you missed it, Keller slid into the boards and was carried off on a stretcher late in the third period of last Wednesday’s game against San Jose.

One player who will be directly impacted by Keller’s injury is Nick Schmaltz. This stat is no doubt propped up by his seven-point game, but Schmaltz had 15 goals and 31 points in his last 21 games (at time of Keller's injury). Most of that production has been on a line with Keller. There’s a significant dropoff on the Coyotes in terms of production after Keller and Schmaltz, so this might be a good time to sell high on Schmaltz if your league’s trade deadline hasn’t passed. (apr1)

6. It’s been 16 games and counting since Conor Garland scored a goal. The fantasy value of many Canucks has improved since Bruce Boudreau took over as coach, but Garland is not one of those players. Since the Boudreau hiring, Garland has 18 points in 39 games compared to 18 points in just 25 games under Travis Green. Granted, Garland has four assists in his last six games and has taken at least three shots in four of those six games. However, he’s been held to just two power-play points all season while on the second unit. Since the Canucks are on the lower end of games remaining by team, Garland is a player you could consider dropping if you need to operate with a shorter bench. (apr1)

7. Think Jake Allen has been busy? Over his last five games entering Saturday, Allen had faced 46, 42, 51, 45, and now 43 shots (his Thursday total). He has only received a win in one of those games. Even if he hasn’t been helping fantasy teams earn wins, he’s not hurting the save percentage (.921 SV%) over that span. (apr1)

8. Rickard Rakell got off to a slow start with the Penguins, being held without a point in his first three games while on a line with Jeff Carter and Kasperi Kapanen. Now that he has moved onto the Evgeni Malkin line, Rakell has caught fire: 2-3-5 in his last three games. The Penguins are one of several teams to play four games next week (see Schedule Planner), so Rakell is one viable option for your fantasy playoffs if you have an all-important matchup next week. On Thursday, Rakell was rostered in just 23 percent of Yahoo leagues and 53 percent of Fantrax leagues. (apr1)

9. Denis Gurianov was a healthy scratch on Thursday of this past week. He has to be one of the most fascinating players in the league right now. He had 20 goals in his rookie season playing third/fourth-line minutes. That fell to 12 in 55 games last year but he saw a big shooting percentage drop so there was reason to believe that it was just a blip. Well, he has 11 goals in 62 games so far this year as the shooting percentage has kept dropping. He has struggled defensively at times and for a Rick Bowness-led team with playoff aspirations, being unreliable defensively means a trip to the bench or the press box. (Never mind that there are many players on this team having poor defensive seasons. Some mistakes stand out more than others).

Gurianov can do a lot of good things offensively. He is good in transition, gaining the blue line, and of course has a wicked shot (which is what makes his goal totals frustrating). I still have a lot of faith in his talent but let’s be honest, the Dallas forwards outside the top line have all been struggling this year. Tyler Seguin, for example, has his lowest points/game mark since his rookie season. This isn’t all on Gurianov, but we had hoped for a huge leap forward by now. There just hasn’t been one. Yet. (mar31)

10. Alex Goligoski has signed a two-year, $4 million contract extension with the Wild. This is big news for those in cap leagues. His AAV is going to go down by 60% and that makes him a lot more palatable in those formats. The blue line is deep enough where he’s not going to get significant minutes without injuries, but they may have to trade Matt Dumba for cap reasons anyway. We should note that he’s on pace for 40 points and over 170 blocks+hits per 82 games this year. If he can replicate this season next year for $2M in cap leagues, he’ll draw a lot of interest. (mar31)

11. The Montreal Canadiens made a signing: A three-year, entry-level contract with forward Joshua Roy, of the QMJHL's Sherbrooke Phoenix. It is notable for two reasons. First, Roy had a very good year as a fifth-rounder from 2021. He finished second in league scoring in the QMJHL (off by a point) and led in assists. Sure, he’s an over-ager, but that’s not bad for a kid that is still 18 years old and will be until August.

Second, he’s Québécois. The Habs only have two Québec-born players on the roster, and one (Mathieu Perreault) is likely to move on after the season. It gives them a forward up front that was born in the province, and that is important to a lot of people. Regardless, he has work to do to get to the lineup, but this past season was a real good start for him.(mar31)

12. The NHL salary cap was confirmed to be increasing for next season, going up by $1M to $82.5 million. Not that the number seems to be a hard cap anymore with all the LTIR circumventing that goes on nowadays, but it is good to see that the league is back on track and moving in the right direction.

With these things I always take a moment to try and consider what it could mean for my cap leagues, and at this point it doesn’t mean much in the grand scheme of things, however there will be small implications nonetheless. If you cap rises with the NHL cap, then your players with more term on the contract start to become more valuable again as the years progress with the cap rising and their cap hit staying stagnant. Additionally, free agents this year might be able to cash in a little better than last year as the cap is now on its way up again and there isn’t the threat of it staying stagnant for three or four more years. (mar30)

13. Kevin Labanc (shoulder) appears to be on the verge of returning. He hasn’t been hugely fantasy relevant since his 56-point campaign in 2018-19, but there is lots of room up front for the Sharks right now, and after seeing his ice time drop drastically at the start of the year, we could see Labanc rebound a little with some better deployment. The key to his scoring is power play success, so keep an eye on that. He put up 18 points with the man advantage in 2018-19, but only has 11 in the three seasons (nearly 150 games) since. (mar30)

14. Joel Farabee is now about 40 games away from his breakout threshold, and is really seeming to find his footing of late with 10 points in his last 10 games, and doing it all without being one of the top weapons on the power play for the Flyers. He has also been racking up the peripherals in that stretch, but the real key is that he is looking great as a center. He has been playing there for the last nine games, and though he does have some work to do on his faceoff skills, Farabee is seeing the ice and managing the puck well as a middle-man. Something to keep in mind for next season, especially if he keeps his positional eligibility on the wing. (mar30)

15. It somehow never really clicked for me that Tage Thompson is 6-7 (!), but he’s really making himself impossible to miss this year with his 53 points in 65 games. As a larger player Thompson’s breakout threshold would be expected to be closer to the 400-game mark, but he has only barely passed 200 NHL games and seems to have found a few more gears to his game. The added ice time and prime deployment is huge, as is playing with some of Buffalo’s more skilled players. None of his underlying numbers are particularly out of line either, so there is some hope that his current numbers are sustainable, and that there may even be another level or two for him to reach over the next few years as he approaches and passes game 400. (mar30)

16. Another player that I have had my eye on this season as he inches closer to his own 400-game breakout threshold is Lawson Crouse, who currently sits 54 games back of the mark. Unfortunately, he may sit at that number until the fall, as it sounds like he has a broken bone in his hand and may get shut down for the year. The 24-year-old is finally above a 40-point pace, and he is also up over two shots per game for the first time in his career. However, his peripherals did slip a little as a result of being used more as an offensive winger. His hits per game are down below three for the first time since 2017-18, which is why most owners roster him in the first place. It does look to all be coming together for Crouse, and with a better supporting cast coming through the pipeline, he’s not someone to forget about in drafts for next season. (mar30)

17. Matt Murray hasn’t played in over three weeks since allowing eight goals against Arizona, the game where he seemed to get injured but kept playing. He was actually having a pretty good season until March, as he had a 0.920 save percentage in his first 18 games (he missed all of December). His last two games saw him allow 13 goals on 53 shots, which makes me wonder if it didn’t all start a bit earlier than that Arizona game. Regardless, it does appear Murray could make his way back to game action this season. There is still four weeks left so lots of time to get re-acclimated, as long as it’s nothing serious. (mar29)

18. Jake Sanderson signed his entry-level deal yesterday with Ottawa and the prospect blue liner is set to turn pro. The confounding issue here is that he suffered a hand injury a few weeks ago and had surgery on it. He won’t be able to step into the lineup right away, but the team is still expecting him to suit up before the end of the campaign. Let’s talk about Sanderson a little bit.

Going into the 2021-22 season, there were some concerns about point totals but those can sometimes be misleading for defensemen. He replied with 26 points in 23 games at the University of North Dakota, not bad a for a 19-year-old. Our prospect writers were, and still are, very high on him.

Scott Wheeler over at The Athletic talked about some prospects he felt he was wrong about, and one of them was Sanderson. I’m paraphrasing here, but his issue was that he came in too low on Sanderson’s offensive tools, namely his shot, and that he has developed those quickly. That is very important for the fantasy realm, but we need to remember that Chabot will be around next year. He will take those prime PP minutes, so we need to be patient with Sanderson’s fantasy value, particularly on a team that’s still coming together.

That offensive upside is very important overall, though. Byron Bader has a prospect comparison tool, which basically looks at a player’s production in given leagues, and compares them to historically similar players. Not that these players have the same style, but that their impacts can be judged similarly across eras. It isn’t perfect – scouting prospects well might be the hardest thing about hockey – but it does give us a barometer for prospects. Sanderson’s big production uptick this past season has been huge for his long-term outlook, at least early on in his post-draft career.

There is still obviously a lot more to come from Sanderson as to just how much of an impact he’ll make. But we shouldn’t underrate the season he just had and how important it was for him to flash that offensive upside. It should help soothe the nerves of dynasty owners a little bit. I will say that I thought Sanderson was drafted too high and there were other players on the board Ottawa should have gone after. But all that is in the past and none of it matters. All that matters now is development and we’ll see how much the Sens can help him. (mar29)

19. Islanders rant. I didn’t plan it, but I started jotting my thoughts and it exploded into a rant. Not sure if it’s a rant against Barry Trotz or a rant against Lou Lamoriello. Maybe both? Anyway, they are not keeping up with the times. Teams are scoring goals by the bucketful in today’s game, and Trotz is chanting “D-Fence!”

That being said, Brock Nelson is overcoming the Trotz obstacle and is on a tear. At time of writing, he had 12 goals in his last 13 games, and 18 points in his last 14. He was on pace to finish with 61 points, which would lead the Islanders in scoring and set a career high. Mathew Barzal would finish second at 56, Anders Lee at 50, Noah Dobson at 48 and somehow Anthony Beauvillier with 40 points. That speaks volumes on the style of this team. Lamoriello is running this team the way he ran the Devils, so I suspect that even if Trotz gets replaced it will be a coach with a similar style. /rant (mar28)

20. Filip Zadina is having a miserable year and has seen declining production each of his last three seasons. But I consider him a buy-low opportunity. Next year, around midseason, he will hit his Breakout Threshold of 200 career games and so the time to get him is now. Not huge upside – perhaps 70, and next season with a strong second half perhaps he comes close to 50. But the time to get him in dynasty leagues is this offseason and you would be getting him for 2023-24. (mar28)

21. Roman Josi, a defenseman, has 26 points in his last 14 games. Entering action last Thursday, he had a career-high 81 on the season (64 games) and was on pace for 104. Only four other defensemen in NHL history have reached the 80-point mark in fewer than 65 games – and zero in the last 30 years. Here is the list, it’s pretty decent I guess: Bobby Orr, Paul Coffey, Denis Potvin, Al MacInnis. Furthermore, only Bobby Orr and Paul Coffey have tallied more points in a calendar month than the 28 Josi had in March. Orr holds the record with 31 points in March of 1971, followed by Coffey with 29 in December of 1985!

It’s hard to believe that none of that has rubbed off on his partner Dante Fabbro, who has just 18 points. With FabbIt’s hard to believe that none of that has rubbed off on his partner Dante Fabbro, who has just 18 points. With Fabbro sidelined, Alexandre Carrier has moved up to be Josi’s partner. Fabbro is out longer term, so you may see a bump in Carrier’s ES production. (mar28)

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The Ottawa Senators honoured Eugene Melnyk prior to last Tuesday’s game after Melnyk passed away on Monday. It was a nice tribute to their long-time owner, and his time in Ottawa will certainly never be forgotten. Ian Mendes put a lot of feeling and insight together to look back on Melnyk’s complicated legacy. You can find the article here.

Rest in peace.

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Have a good week, folks – stay safe!!

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