One of the more notable free agents left on the board signed on with a new team on Thursday morning. Nino Niederreiter, the recent Carolina Hurricane winger, latched onto Nashville for a two-year deal carrying an average annual value of $4M. Here is the breaking news from Elliotte Friedman:

Let's get to what this means for Nashville. Data from Frozen Tools or Natural Stat Trick.

What Nashville Gets

Niederreiter has long been one of the more underrated players in the league. Sure, he's never had more than 25 goals in a season and has cracked 50 points only twice, but point-per-game production hasn't been his calling card. A big reason for Niederreiter's lack of high-end production is a lack of power-play time: he hasn't averaged two minutes a game of PPTOI since 2018-19, his first season in Carolina. He has 21 PPPs over his last 198 games and averaging under 10 PPPs/82 games doesn't lead to high-end production. There is also overall ice time to consider, as he was only in the 60^th percentile of the league in 5-on-5 TOI over the last three years, a low-end second-line number.

The flipside is in the few minutes he is given, he's very productive. Over those same three years, his goals per 60 minutes borders on low-end first-line status, and ties him with names like Pavel Buchnevich and Gabriel Landeskog. His points per 60 minutes isn't as high but that brings us to one of his weaknesses: playmaking. From Hockey Viz's new model, his "setting," or his ability to setup line mates for an imminent shot, has been around league average for years now:

He is fine at generating shots, either for himself or his line mates, but not great or exceptional. That is something that is likely to keep his assist totals meagre, even if he posts 20-25 goals. There is a reason he has as many goals as assists over the last five years.

But that is about where the issues end. He is good defensively which stems from his ability to pressure the opposition. From Corey Sznajder's tracking data, his forechecking micro-stats were both well over a standard deviation above the league average in 2021-22 and his pressuring stood up the year before as well. He is a hound on the puck when his team doesn't have it and that is a big reason why his impacts are very good both offensively and defensively.

Going to Nashville, he won't necessarily need to be a good playmaker to help the team. We will have to see how lines work out, but there are guys like Matt Duchene, Mikael Granlund, and Ryan Johansen who are all somewhere from good-to-great at distributing the puck. Regardless of whether he's on the first or second line – my guess is the second line with Johansen – he'll have someone to get the puck to him and their other winger for a good shot. He just has to go get the puck first, which is an area he excels.

Niederreiter can ostensibly be pencilled in for 20 goals and 40 points, which isn't great for fantasy. The wrinkle here is he hit a lot more in 2021-22 than any season since Minnesota: he had 119 hits in 75 games last season but just 120 in his previous 123 games. Putting up 80 hits is nice, but being able to get to around 125 in a full season makes him much more viable in multi-cat leagues. There's no telling where he ends up, but he'll have depth value in those formats.

It’s a wonder what this does for Eeli Tolvanen. He looked all but assured top-6 minutes at even strength but now he's on the bubble. Either he or Nino can play on their off-wing on the second line, but it just gives a bit more competition in case Tolvanen doesn't take a step forward. They now have options to move up someone like Tanner Jeannot if they felt necessary without changing much of the chemistry. It just makes Tolvanen's top-6 hold a bit more tenuous.

This also isn't good news for Philip Tomasino. Assuming Niederreiter and Tolvanen go to the top-6, and the third line of Yakov Trenin, Colton Sissons, and Jeannot stays together, this leaves fourth-line duties for Tomasino. He'll be in a battle with Tolvanen for that top-6 TOI and someone is going to get a very short end of the stick. The same goes for Luke Evangelista, who now has a very steep uphill climb to make the NHL roster.

Niederreiter moving on also takes some bite out of the Carolina depth scoring, which was a strength of theirs. It is probably why they signed Ondrej Kase but it puts more pressure on him and/or Martin Necas to produce alongside either Jordan Staal or Jesperi Kotkaniemi. Kase can do it, but he needs to stay healthy, and Necas needs to take another step in his development. It also could open a third-line role for Jordan Martinook if he, also, can stay healthy.

Per Cap Friendly, this leaves Nashville with $4M in cap space with Trenin yet to sign. If the rumours of a possible Matthew Tkachuk trade are true, they'll need to move out a lot of money (more than just Mikael Granlund). It may take them out of the running entirely.

Who This Helps

Ryan Johansen

Jordan Martinook

Who This Hurts

Luke Evangelista

Philip Tomasino

Jordan Staal

Eeli Tolvanen