It is Bubble Keeper Week here at Dobber Hockey and we're spending the entire week helping readers make their tough keep-or-cut decisions. All four of us editors at this site have had a Ramblings touching on these situations: Ian covered guys like Jake DeBrusk, Antti Raanta, and Sean Durzi; Dobber had questions including Tristan Jarry, Eeli Tolvanen, William Eklund, and Tyler Bertuzzi; I wrote about skaters like Oliver Bjorkstrand, Joel Farabee, and Nils Höglander; Alex dove into Anze Kopitar, Jeff Petry, Ryan O'Reilly and a handful of other guys. When we say we're going to cover a plethora of players covering a wide range of values, we mean it.

Today will be more of the same. I have received some keeper questions from Twitter and even got one from a very good friend that we will be talking about today. If anyone reading this has more keeper questions, be sure to check out our Forums or send them to Ian on Twitter for his Ramblings coming up this weekend.  

Alright, let's get to a few questions here.

my team is vet-heavy so I'm in win-now mode with few early draft picks next year. Final keeper Q's:
Keeping E.Kane over Tom Wilson
Keeping Letang over Pacioretty. Mainly injury related on both spots.

— Evan Starr (@evanstarr) August 16, 2022

Very appreciative of Evan for including the fact that he's in win-now mode. That is something that fantasy hockey owners need to always keep in mind: where is my roster situated in the league? When I was doing my dive on a deep keeper league, the over-arching theme was turning over a veteran team to youngsters. I had tried to make championship runs over the last few years and never got over the hump. Such is the nature of fantasy sports.

With Evan looking for a title this season, it seems like keeping the two non-injured players is the move here. Tom Wilson's knee surgery will keep him out until mid-late November at the earliest, and possibly into 2023. He legitimately could miss half the season and how a 28-year-old power forward will perform once returning from serious knee injury in-season is an open question. He should still be able to put up hits and penalty minutes but whether he can be productive points-wise is very uncertain.

The same can be said for Max Pacioretty. He will be out until February of 2023 with his Achilles surgery and how a 34-year-old will perform when returning from such a serious procedure is worrisome. Perhaps both Wilson and Pacioretty become forces down the stretch, but keeping either of them and having to replace them with draft picks isn't how championship teams are built.

I will say that I'm interested to see where Evander Kane's ADP lands when September rolls around. He played just 43 regular season games for Edmonton but his 82-game paces look like this: 42 goals, 74 points, 114 PIMs, 290 shots, and 257 hits. That would be a patently absurd fantasy season in multi-cat leagues, and done with little power-play production. If he earns a PP1 role? We could easily be looking at a top-10 fantasy player.

Alright, Question 2:

Pretty set with my first 7 keepers in my 18-team, hits, sog, ppp league: Aho, Svech, Shesty, Byfield, Stuetzle, Boldy & Laf. Leaves me picking 1 of these 3: Puljujarvi, Kakko or DeBrusk. Not looking to compete, best hope is winning the Connor Bedard sweepstakes.

— Crab Navi 🦀 (@ChickenPoutine) August 16, 2022

Again, the state of the team being mentioned is helpful. This team is loaded with young players with the oldest skater being 25 and Igor Shesterkin being the oldest overall at 26. Let's work out what the three options could bring.

Jake DeBrusk's first game alongside the top-line duo in 2021-22 was on January 20^th. From that point through to the end of the season, a span of 46 games, he had 20 goals, 32 points, and 117 shots on target. That would put a 30-goal, 60-point, 200-shot season in reach if that were his role for the entire season.

My problem, as I've mentioned in a few Ramblings of late, is that Brad Marchand's double hip surgery is a massive concern. If Boston runs a second line of Taylor Hall, David Krejci, and David Pastrnak, that probably means a top line of something like Pavel Zacha with Bergeron and DeBrusk. Not that Zacha is a bad player but he's a considerable downgrade from Marchand's offensive prowess. I have serious concerns about a Bruins top line without Marchand for months being anywhere close to as productive as they've been for years now. And even when Marchand returns, with such a serious surgery, there's no guarantee he's anything close to the top-level player he's been for the Bruins. Beyond all that, DeBrusk may not have a top PP role which not only caps his upside even more but threatens to leave him with little in the PPP category for this league. He's not a player who racks up hit totals and that all leaves a lot of concerns here.

With Frank Vatrano and Andrew Copp gone, it looks like the right side of the top two lines in New York are open. We should assume that Alexis Lafrenière will take one of those roles, but it would still leave a top-6 right wing role for someone to step into. Skating with either of those top-6 lines would be a great place to be.

Kakko's problem is that no matter who he skates with, they don't score a lot. He has over 310 minutes spanning the last two seasons being Mika Zibanejad's right winger. In those 310 minutes, the team scored 1.93 goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 (per Natural Stat Trick). When Zibanejad has anyone but Kakko, that number jumps to 3.15 per 60. That is a huge gap.

It doesn't stop with Zibanejad, either. He has managed 2.73 goals per 60 over the last two years skating with Filip Chytil and while that's not a bad number, but not great for fantasy production. The underlying issue here is that if Kakko is skating with Chytil, that likely means he's skating on the third line, and that means less time on ice. Even if they produce well on a per-minute basis, skating 15 minutes a night without top PP time – which he won't get unless there are a slew of injuries – isn't a big boon for fantasy value. In simpler terms, there are a lot of hurdles Kakko needs to leap in order to reach that next level of fantasy production. Not to mention he's posted 42 hits in 157 career games. No significant PP role, no hits, and a tenuous hold on a top-6 role? Pass.

He Who Remains is Jesse Puljujärvi. He may not produce as many points as DeBrusk but a full season should see him cross 100 hits which gives him an advantage over the Bruins winger and dwarfs what Kakko would post. He could also threaten 200 shots on goal even if he doesn't play 18 minutes a night, which is roughly what we might expect from DeBrusk. At the least, if DeBrusk has the edge in production, Puljujärvi has the edge in peripherals.

His issue is that Edmonton just doesn't seem to want him. There were very strong trade rumours all offseason and it just seemed the Oilers couldn't get a package they deemed acceptable. With the team having the Seven Forward Problem that I've discussed prior – they have seven fantasy-relevant forwards and that means someone is getting the boot from the top-6 – he could get the short end of the stick here.

When he's not skating with one of Connor McDavid or Leon Draisaitl, the team barely scores. They just don't have the offensive depth to put together a competent third line and while Pulju is a great two-way winger, he's not a great playmaker or finisher. That's not conjecture, either, as Hockey Viz has him below average in both regards, the latter much more than the former:

It is why I'm tempted to take DeBrusk here. I don't have very high hopes for him but if the best Pulju can offer is an extra 30 hits and 20 shots, that may not be enough to make up for a third line role. I still think the Oilers winger has a lot of offensive upside but his role within the team doesn't bode well for fantasy value.

Alright, how about a cap league question?

In my 12 team cats/bangers keeper salary cap league (G,A,+/-,PP,SHP,GWG,S,H,B,PIMS,W,Svs,Sv%,SO,$81.5 by AAV) we are only allowed two goalies max. I have Shester and Kuemper, and my potential drops are Giroux, Teraveinen, PLD or Romanov. Keep Darcy and 1, or drop Darcy and 2? TIA

— Friar Puck (@DamnBirdshit) August 17, 2022

This seems like a case where we can eliminate some guys. As high as I am on Giroux this season in Ottawa, he isn't strong in peripherals. In a multi-cat league like this, he could be a drag in four separate categories.

The same can be said for Teuvo Teravainen. He might post 70 points but that he doesn't score much means he won't bring much in goals or game-winning goals. He also has 96 PIMs in his last seven seasons, not bringing much in hits, either.

Alex Romanov isn't signed yet so where his AAV lands matters. He also won't produce much so he's just a big peripheral guy. We would like to see more balance to his profile.

To me, it comes down to keeping one of Pierre-Luc Dubois or Darcy Kuemper. As for PLD, there aren't a lot of guys who can post 30 goals, 60 points, a PIM per game, 2.5 shots per game, over 100 hits, and very good PP production. His contract is fine at $6M with that kind of across-the-board production. When it comes to Kuemper, he is the sure-fire #1 for Washington, a team that will be without Wilson and Nicklas Backstrom, but added good depth and should get a full season from Anthony Mantha. I have no problem sticking with Kuemper here but PLD is fine, too, depending on roster needs.

As for our next query, we get two guys looking to rebound for different reasons:

Points only dynasty league, I have to cut either Monahan or Kubalik. I owned Monahan for 8 plus seasons but not sure how he's gonna be after he heals from his surgeries.

— Heavy Kevy (@kevin_tweetham) August 17, 2022

When it comes to Sean Monahan, the first issue is his role. Let's say that he can get back to being close to what he was pre-surgery, we have to have concerns about where he plays. He was still a centre for the Flames in 2021-22 but he will be stuck behind Elias Lindholm and Mikael Backlund. Calgary does not have the offensive depth to support a third scoring line, so even if Monahan somehow garners a top PP role, does he have the even strength scoring to get to 50 points? He has averaged 44 points every 82 games over his last three seasons. A full 43% of his points over the last two seasons have come with the man advantage and he's still played to under a 40-point/82-game pace. Unless there's a huge rebound here, even with heavy PPTOI, he might not reach 40 points, let alone 50 or 60.

On the flipside, Dominik Kubalik is going to get a chance to resurrect his value in Detroit. He is facing the same problem as Monahan, though, in that he could end up in a third-line role. All of Jakub Vrana, David Perron, Tyler Bertuzzi, and Lucas Raymond will be higher on the depth chart. As injuries hit, as they do for almost all teams, there's a chance he moves up the lineup at times in 2022-23. However, he will be way down the list for a prime PP role, which puts him behind Monahan in this regard. Even if Kubalik regains his scoring touch, mostly third-line TOI combined with secondary PP minutes doesn't bode for a big fantasy season.

I would probably take the risk on Monahan here. I don't think Kubalik has 60-point upside this year even if things break right for him while Monahan does. There is a lot of wear and tear here but neither guy is very exciting and I'll take the player that has a shot at a PP1 role. Monahan's injuries might be too much to overcome but it's not as if we're eschewing a high-end producer for him.

Alright, let's get to a question that has rounds involved:

12 Team H2H 3C/3LW/3RW/4D/2U/2G
Sk Cats: G, A, P, +/-, PP, SOG, Hit, Blk
G Cats: W/Sv%/GAA/SO

Choose 3 (round kept in):

Vrana(16), Kadri(15), Dahlin(12), Nichushkin(11), Francouz(11), Giroux(10), Talbot(10), Tervainen(8), Burns(8), Laine(7), Tarasenko(6), Fiala(6), Forsberg(6)

— Scott Free (@ramsfan1213) August 17, 2022

This seems straightforward to me.

The first guy we're keeping is Rasmus Dahlin. We want to keep him not only for 2022-23 but for seasons beyond. Buffalo bungled their offseason – $20M in cap space for a team looking to make a leap? – but the kids like Jack Quinn and Dylan Cozens should make an impact and there's enough talent for a decent scoring top-6 with a good power play. Dahlin can bring the production across the board, so he's being kept in the 12^th round.

We're also keeping Valeri Nichushkin, at least for now. If Nazem Kadri doesn't come back, the Russian winger looks like he'll have a top PP role and will be a fixture of the top-6. This is a guy who could put up 25 goals, 65 points, a good plus/minus, good PP production, over 200 shots, and over 100 hits. That kind of across-the-board contribution is something that is rare in fantasy leagues and getting him at this discount is great value.

The final guy has to be Kadri, regardless of where he lands. He can bring a lot everywhere except hits and blocks, and the late-round value is too good to pass up.

What I will say is keeping Nichushkin may depend on Kadri re-signing with Colorado. If he does, Nichushkin probably loses his PP1 role and though he wasn't PP-reliant in 2021-22, it does hurt his upside. If he returns, I can see keeping Vladimir Tarasenko instead. It isn't tremendous value, but he's very good across-the-board like Nichushkin is and has the PP upside we're looking for.

For our last question, one from a friend: (paraphrasing) Should Jonathan Huberdeau be kept in the second round of a 10-team league?

Not sure if many people realize this, but Huberdeau has nearly as many hits (201) as games played (204) over his last three seasons. In a multi-cat league, he's actually bringing some value in the hits column, and that matters a lot.

I don't think we should expect a repeat of his 115-point season in Calgary, but a 90-point season with over 200 shots and 80 hits is a very good season. I have no problem keeping Huberdeau as a second-round value.