OUT NOW!

I released the Fantasy Guide on August 4, and the last update is September 11 with the latest player tryouts as well as my Calder Trophy rankings (expect these up later today, September 12, as I put the finishing touches in). Pick up the Fantasy Guide here and immediately download both the PDF and the spreadsheet. The Guide will continue to get updates on injuries, signings, camp cuts and more – projections, line combos and notes all get updated throughout.

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Have you checked out the new Goalie Post yet? We are still taking suggestions, notes and errors from users as we get the new site ready for the season. Coming up this week (I hope) – DOBBERNOMICS. Yes, another re-launch/upgrade is on the way. Stay tuned to my Twitter account for the announcement on this.

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This week's Keeping Karlsson episode went through my projections and highlighted some of the bolder ones – both on the high side and low side. You can see the YouTube episode below. I thought I would go through and explain a few of the big jumps or dives in the points-per-game projections that I have and provide some insight.

First, I want to address the points pace. I spend nearly as much time analyzing and coming up with a projection for projected games played as I do for the points-per-game average. I look very carefully at the amount of games a player misses year over year, giving weight to recency (if healthy) and also determining (if injured) whether or not the injury was a one-off or a trend. I agonized over this stuff quite a bit. So if a player is listed as 55 points in 65 games, yes that implies that his full-season pace is 69 points. But, if a player ends up staying healthy and somehow getting in those 17 extra games, I tend to treat it as if he slows a bit and I play it conservatively. So in this case I would draft him like he's 55 points, but if my league has an IR then I would treat him as 65 (not 69). Meaning, I would dial it back just a little. As far as a full-season outlook though, just be comfortable knowing that I really dive into each player's injury trends.

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Big Jump

Jack Roslovic – This is a wildcard here, as it obviously depends on whether he gets Johnny Hockey as his linemate. The other options are Boone Jenner and Cole Sillinger. Any of those three have a chance at that spot, and the winner gets a boost. If Roslovic gets the spot, I think he pushes for 70 points. If he doesn't, I still think he has a strong year and exceeds 50. Even if Roslovic misses out on the Gaudreau spot full-time, he'll still at least get a look there. As with all line combinations, there is some mixing and matching throughout the season. Roslovic is a fellow American who actually finished last season with 25 points in 32 games. He's entering his prime and, frankly, he has higher upside than Jenner. I don't think Sillinger is quite ready yet. So that's why I'm leaning on the higher side with Roslo.

Anthony Beauvillier – I have Beauvillier jumping a little because, well last year was horrible. It's easy to increase a terrible point total by 25 percent, right? The Isles have a new coach, which helps, but at the same time – just one player is getting past 60 points and it's not Beauvillier. He'll bounce back to 50.

Jakob Chychrun – The young defenseman is a virtual lock to get injured this year. But it won't be as bad as last season where he missed 35 games. A healthier Chychrun will be a better Chychrun, even with Shayne Gostisbehere hogging much of his PP time. I also happen to think that Chychrun gets traded before the Christmas break, which can only help.

Connor McMichael – It's been a slow start to his NHL career so far, but that's often the case with even the best prospects. He is highly regarded by team brass and it's safe to say that his ice time will be better this season than it was last. The healthy scratches are probably a thing of the past as well. He'll need to crack the top nine first, and this is a deeper team this year. But I believe in his talent level and I think he will take off once that spot opens – likely in the form of a Marcus Johansson injury, or something along those lines.

Pavel Zacha – Here is a guy who produced at a 57-point pace in 2020-21. As a bigger forward, I felt (and still feel) he has another gear. He has played 386 career games and this is his BT season. With Brad Marchand out to start the campaign, he should get some early PP time to get himself established. Gaining a foothold early will set the tone for the rest of his season. I projected him for 51 points, which to me is a fairly conservative number. To analyze this deeper by looking at 'pace' is not the way to go about this one, as he is almost certainly going to miss time and my 74-game projection is a pretty solid guess.

Nosedive

Mason Marchment – Well, I think everyone is projecting a decline for this guy, so I'm not going out on a limb here. And projecting him to miss 15 games is also a sound bet, as he gets hurt every year at every level he's played. It's the style of game that he plays. I think his numbers will start out solid as he will get ice time and linemates that a contract of that size deserves, but he'll start to lose that spot and have a weaker second half. His 5on5 S% (12.1) was way too high last year and we'll quickly understand just how good his former linemate Anton Lundell is at making his linemates so much better.

Matt Duchene – A career year at the age of 31 just one season after a career low? Sure, okay. But you'd be crazy to bet on his matching it. His S% and 5on5 S% were also career highs. Ignore last season. Ignore the two weak seasons prior to that. Instead, look at his best years before all of it. He had 0.96 points-per-game in 2018-19, 0.99 in 2013-14, 0.89 in 2012-13 and 0.84 in 2010-11. That spits out a 0.92 points-per-game average. I knocked off 11 goals from last year's 43, because you can roll back seven or eight PPG from last year's 16, which would get him back to his prior career high (nine).

Nazem Kadri – Another career year for a player in his 30s, this time it's Kadri who is also 31. His career high full-season pace was 75 in the lockout-shortened 2012-13 – otherwise, his best was never higher than 61. Last year he finished with 87. And while that's nuts, his 5on5 S% doesn't scream regression and his hefty contract will ensure that he sees more ice time and PP time than he's ever seen in his pro career. The added ice time and PP time will help buoy his stats to pretty good heights – just not the 100-point-pace heights he just enjoyed. Even though I still have him posting more than a point per game, I dialed back his projection quite a bit.

Steven Stamkos – Player number three in his 30s and seeing a career high, Stamkos finished with over 100 points for the first time (106). That torrid finish was ridiculously-good (40 points in the final 21 games). It's that finish that is unsustainable, so reel his production back to normal over that final quarter and he finishes with about 88 points. I have him missing some time, because he usually does, which puts him at about 82 points (in 73 games).

Ivan Barbashev – He had a 23.4 S% and 12.1 5on5 S% both scream regression. He wasn't overly effective on the power play, either. I've always felt that Barbashev could be a top-six player and now he's probably earned his place there or on a very solid third line. I think he'll be closer to a 50-point player than a 60-point player.

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As noted, Ian Gooding was the guest on Keeping Karlsson this week, take a look:

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See you next Monday.