Tuesday’s Game Picks: Look for Goals in Los Angeles
Will McLean
2022-10-11
The NHL is back, and I couldn't be any more excited. I know we've had two games already in Prague, but it feels different when teams get to play in front of their home crowds. There are two games on the schedule tonight with the Tampa Bay Lightning visiting the New York Rangers and the Vegas Golden Knights visiting the Los Angeles Kings.
The Rangers and Lightning are set to faceoff for the first time since the Eastern Conference Finals last season, where the Lightning beat the Rangers in six games. The Rangers will be looking for some redemption to start the season. In the west, the Kings and Golden Knights will be looking to improve on their performances from last season. The Kings will be looking to continue their growth after a surprise trip to the playoffs. The Golden Knights will be looking for a bounce-back year after a disappointing season in which they missed the playoffs for the first time in franchise history.
The preseason is over, and 32 teams are set to start their journey toward the Stanley Cup. I'm very excited to see how the season unfolds, and hopefully, we can win some bets along the way.
Gold Pick
Los Angeles Kings @ Vegas Golden Knights – Pick: OVER 5.5 (-135)
It's opening night in the NHL (in North America) and I want to see some goals. The Golden Knights are looking to bounce back from last year's disappointing season. They missed the playoffs for the first time in franchise history, but they made sure to play some wild games along the way. The Kings on the other hand outperformed expectations and made the playoffs. They ended up losing in the first round but impressed a lot of people by pushing the Edmonton Oilers to Game 7. The Kings improved their forward group in the offseason by acquiring Kevin Fiala from the Minnesota Wild. With the Acquisition of Fiala, the Kings are looking to score more goals on their way to a second straight playoff berth.
The logic behind this pick is as simple as looking at their head-to-head matchups last year. The Kings and Golden Knights played each other four times last season. In all four games they played, they combined for six or more goals in each of them. Knowing that they hit the over in every game against one another last year makes it easy for me to place this bet with confidence. Another small confidence boost from last season is that both these teams averaged more than 5.5 total goals per game. The Golden Knights averaged 6.17 total goals per game, and the Kings averaged 5.7 total goals per game last season.
Even though using last season’s stats to make picks isn't my favourite thing to do, the way these two teams played each other last year makes me excited about this pick.
Silver Pick
Tampa Bay Lightning @ New York Rangers – Pick: Adam Fox Over 1.5 Shots (-186)
Adam Fox is set for his fourth NHL season and he's looking to be in the Norris Trophy conversation once again when spring rolls around. What he has accomplished in three NHL seasons is amazing. Winning the Norris trophy in his sophomore season and finishing fifth in voting in his third season is unheard of. He is an elite NHL defenseman, and he is going to prove it again this season.
This pick is based on what Fox was able to produce last season. Last year, Fox averaged 2.03 shots per game, but while playing at home he averaged 2.51 shots per contest. Being at home allows the Rangers to put Fox in better matchups with the last change, which could be one of the reasons why he averages more shots on home ice. During the Regular season last year, Fox played the Lightning three times. In those three games he averaged two shots per game, if he can hit that average tonight, we will have a winner on our hands.
Bronze Pick
Tampa Bay Lightning @ New York Rangers – Pick: Rangers Money Line (-120)
On opening night, we get a rematch of last season’s Conference Finals, it doesn't get much better than that. The Lightning knocked off the Rangers in six games on their way to their third straight Stanley Cup appearance where they lost to the Colorado Avalanche. The Lightning will be looking to get back to the Cup Finals for a fourth straight season, while the Rangers are looking to improve on their Conference Finals loss from last year, and it all starts tonight.
I am using a little bit of gut feeling to make this pick. Tonight is the Rangers' home opener, and they get to play the team who knocked them out of the playoffs. This is their chance to get a little bit of redemption, and I think they will accomplish that.
Another reason I am making this pick is I believe the Lightning got worse this offseason. They lost Ondrej Palat and Ryan McDonagh, those are two massive losses that will take time for them to adjust to. The Lightning are also going to be missing the injured Anthony Cirelli tonight, their second-line center, which will be a tough hole to fill. Whereas the Rangers have a similar team to last season and should enter tonight’s game somewhat healthy.
Another small reason I'm picking the Rangers tonight is because they went 3-1 against the Lightning at home in the regular season and playoffs last year. I'm hoping that trend continues and wasn't a fluke.