Welcome back to Goldipucks and the Three Skaters, a play on words of the Goldilocks and the Three Bears story. Instead of there being three bowls of porridge though, I cover three skaters and declare one too hot (i.e., doing unsustainably better than he should), another too cold (i.e., doing unsustainably worse), and a third “just right” (i.e., producing where he should be). In addition, I also assign each a rating of 1-10, indicating how hot (rated 7-10, where 10 is the most unsustainably hot), cold (rated 1-4, where 1 is the most unsustainably cold), or “just right” (rated 4-7, where 5.5 is the most “just right”) he is.

It's that awkward time of year for Goldipucks, as there isn't enough current data for me to dissect; but for most skaters it would be strange to look at solely last season's numbers. As a compromise, I'm covering two (Brad Marchand, Tom Wilson), who, despite being injured, remain of interest to poolies, and another (Brock Boeser) who missed all of preseason. Your task is to decide which of the three, for 2021-22, was too hot, who was too cold, and whose output was just right, and see if you remembered enough to make correct picks for all three. Note that for each player, his 2021-22 stats are denoted.

Brock Boeser (71 games, 23G, 23A, 195 SOG, 17 PPPts, 18:36 TOI, 3:05 PP, 64.0% PP%)

Drafted with pick 23 in the first round in 2015, Boeser earned a nine game NHL cameo at the end of 2016-17, during which he potted four goals and convinced the Canucks he should be with them for 2017-18. They most certainly didn't regret their decision, with Boeser posting 55 points in 62 games as a rookie, and a 65-73 point scoring rate in each of his next three seasons. But Boeser's production dipped to 46 points in 71 games for 2021-22. Was that just a blip in the radar, or could Boeser heave peaked early? Data and metrics suggest it's likely the former.

Boeser's season-long total is misleading, as he started slow, with a mere nine points in his first 20 games, meaning he ended with 37 in his last 51 contests and an even better 27 in his last 35. Interestingly, this coincided with Boeser shooting less, as in his first 36 games he fired 104 SOG, for an average of 2.9 per game, while in the last 35 he totaled only 91 SOG, or 2.6 per contest. When he posted his best career scoring rate of 73 points in 2020-21, his SOG per game was a career low at only 2.5 per game Whereas Boeser's 2020-21 shooting percentage seems high at 16.3% as compared to his other seasons, it might just be he was shooting more selectively. Sure enough, Boeser had three more goals in those final 35 games of 2021-22 and a shooting percentage of 14.2%, versus his prior 36 games, when his SH% was 9.6%. Whereas 2021-22 could be painted as an unsuccessful season for Boeser on the whole, it might have put him back on a path to again being a more successful, selective shooter as he was in 2020-21.

Although his production varied substantially last season as compared to 2020-21, Boeser's most frequent linemate each campaign was J.T. Miller. And if we look at the overall IPPs for Boeser and Miller in 2020-21, we see they weren't far apart, at 62.2% for Miller and 62.0% for Boeser. Fast forward to 2021-22, however, and Boeser's slipped to 55.4%, a career low, while Miller's skyrocketed to 76.7%, nearly ten percentage points higher than it'd been in any of his previous four seasons. If both had identical IPPs last season meeting in the middle, i.e., 66.0%, then Boeser's point total would've been 55 points instead of 46, for a scoring rate of 63 points. For those wondering where Boeser's points went, the answer is to Miller. With Miller's IPP being so much higher than his norm, it's unlikely to recur, and instead Boeser should reclaim the points that would've been his last season.

Going back to Boeser's rookie campaign, his 23 PPPts in 62 games still stands as his best rate even though he's since played seasons of 69 and 71 games. In fact, Boeser has failed to average over one power play point every four games in any subsequent campaign. But he's not been far below that mark either. Moreover, his "spot" on PP1 should be safe, as although he's not made the most of his PP minutes, tying for 57th in cumulative PPPts among forwards despite taking the ice for the 22nd most PP minutes during that span, it's still better than teammate Bo Horvat, who had the 9th most PP minutes among forwards but stood tied for an only slightly better 49th in forward PPPts. If there's a viable threat of a forward being moved off Vancouver's PP1, it'd likely be Horvat over Boeser. Moreover, of those 27 points in Boeser's final 35 games for 2021-22, ten were PPPts, suggesting he was starting to (re)connect the dots in that area.

We also can't discount what Boeser did in his first five seasons by age 24, counting his brief nine game cameo in 2016-17, which is cumulatively average .35+ goals, .83+ points, and 2.8 SOG per game. Dating back to 1990-91, the only other wingers who previously met all three criteria likewise by age 24 in their first five seasons were, in chronological order: Jaromir Jagr, Pavel Bure, Paul Kariya, Ilya Kovalchuk, Alex Semin, Alex Ovechkin, Taylor Hall, Nikita Kucherov, and David Pastrnak. And with the exception of Semin, who was out of the NHL by age 31, each had at least one season with a goal pace of 50+ and/or a scoring pace of 100+. In other words, what Boeser did in terms of his age and his production suggest that at some stage of his career he will ascend to similar heights, likely sooner rather than later as most of these wingers achieved their greatest success by or in their mid 20s.

Still, not everything is in Boeser's favor. After posting IPPs, both overall and on the PP, well over the all-important 70% threshold in his rookie season, Boeser's overall IPP has never again been even 64%, while on the PP it's been under 60%, with the averages of each over the past four seasons being 59.1% overall and a measly 52.0% on the PP. There's just no sugarcoating how bad those are. The only silver lining is Boeser did succeed in the area of IPP previously, so it's more foreseeable for it to recur, although less so with each passing season. On top of that, Boeser's 2021-22 not only was his worst season in terms of scoring rate, but it also coincided with his highest secondary assist percentage of 56.5%. That number is not staggeringly high; however, for it to have occurred when his scoring was down is another reason to have concern about his trajectory.

Back in the positive column, the Canucks had a 5×5 Shooting Percentage of a miniscule 6.5% when Boeser was on the ice in 2021-22. That number is so low that out of the 59 forwards who played 40+ games and had a lower percentage, a mere one (Tyler Toffoli) averaged even a point per every other game. Not only that, but Boeser's percentage had been 9.98%+ in each of the last three seasons. While there's no denying that his PP IPP was tiny and his secondary assists rate was elevated, this figure was far more impactful, in a negative and unsustainable way.

Boeser has not paid dividends that were expected from him after his stellar rookie season. That having been said, his outputs over his first five seasons put him in elite company in terms of winger comparables. When looking at his 2021-22 under a lens, we see that he ended much better than he started, plus his unsustainably low 5×5 shooting percentage and linemate JT. Miller's unsustainably high IPP excuse his low scoring rate. As such, Boeser's 2021-22 was TOO COLD, and I'd say he's a lock for a 60+ point scoring rate for 2022-23, with 70+ points plausible, thus giving him a rating of 1.5.

Brad Marchand (70 games, 32G, 48A, 242 SOG, 27 PPPts, 19:15 TOI, 3:25 PP, 70.3% PP%)

Selected in the 3rd round back in 2006, the feisty Marchand made it to the AHL in 2008 and played a total of 113 contests at that level, posting a decent but far from spectacular 81 points. His hard-nosed – pun intended – style impressed the Bs, and he became an NHL regular in 2010. From there, he had alternating seasons of decent then below average production for several years until, to the surprise of most everyone, rising to 85 points in 2016-17 at the age of 28. Since then, and counting that season, Marchand has scored the fourth most points of any NHLer, with a scoring pace of 100-110 for a four season stretch until 2021-22 saw him dip to just a 94 point rate. Now 34, should we assume Marchand will continue to shed points? Not from where I sit, although I think given the situation he's in now it's also unlikely he reaches a 100 point scoring rate again.

The first thing that sticks out when reviewing Marchand's 2021-22 data is his SOG rate, as in all his successful seasons it'd never been higher than 2.9 per game and in fact had remained within a 2.6-2.9 range for all five of his point per game or better prior campaigns. For the 2021-22 season, however, his SOG rate skyrocketed to 3.5 per game. Beyond that, it was actually trending even higher as the season wore on, with it being 3.08 per game in 35 first half games, but 3.83 in 35 second half contests. What's interesting though is he actually scored at a better pace (46 points in 35 games) in the first half than in the second (34 points in 35 games). Sure enough, Marchand's SH% for the season was 13.2%, a career low. If I was to guess what occurred, it was that Marchand saw more of a need than in past seasons for him to "do it himself." But the results weren't great; so if he keeps shooting at this higher volume and less selectively, as crazy as it sounds it'll likely pull down his scoring as it did in 2021-22, perhaps even lower given what happened in the second half.

If we look at Marchand's numbers versus those of the Bs, we can see he had been a fairly steady contributor regardless of how Boston did as a team, as his 100+ point scoring paces were achieved when the Bs had the 6th, 11th, 9th, and 14th best goal totals among NHL squads. They were 14th best in 56 games in 2020-21, so the impact on Marchand likely was not as significantly felt. In contrast, he played 70 games in 2021-22 and Boston had only the 15th best team offense; so what seemingly occurred was Marchand played nearly as well as normal, but the team around him was worse. You often hear me use the expression that a rising tide lifts all boats – well, the opposite can also be true in that all passengers can drown on a sinking ship. This is also supported by the fact that for 2021-22 Marchand had his best IPPs – both overall and on the PP – since he rose to become a 100+ point pace scorer. Not by a significant amount (3-6 percentage points), but enough to show that he was still doing what he did best – it was the team around him that was worsening.

This was felt even more on the PP. The first three seasons that Marchand's scoring rate was above 100 points, the Bs had no worse than the 4th highest PP conversation %, while in 2020-21 it dropped to 10th and in 2021-22 it slipped to 15th. Marchand's rate of getting PPPts was higher than ever, as in 70 games for 2021-22 he had 27 PPPts, for a team that had a total of only 50 PPGs, including four in the 12 games Marchand missed, meaning he had 27 PPPts on 46 PPGs in games he played. That eclipses his highest percentage rates of any previous season, even if we account for missed games as we did here. While Marchand played like his normal self at even strength in 2021-22, he was in uncharted territory on the PP. Just as was the case with his SOG, Marchand can't – 2021-22 results notwithstanding – carry the team's entire PP on his shoulders like that, especially as he ages.

Like Boeser, Marchand was plagued by a very low team shooting percentage – 7.5% – at 5×5. But in the case of Marchand, as we've already seen, he compensated by doing more on the PP than would have been expected. It stands to reason that the Bs will shoot closer to what they did in past season, although likely not as high in view of the reality that the team appears to be slowing. At best an upped 5×5 team shooting percentage would offset what Marchand figures to lose based on SOG rate, lower IPPs, and lower PP scoring.

Then there's the issue of Boston's top six. Back are David Krejci and Patrice Bergeron, but perhaps for just this season and it's not clear how well either will perform. Plus, if Bergeron scores more, that could mean points syphoned away from Marchand, as the two most likely will remain together at ES. David Pastrnak, who's on the last year of his current contract, will likely want to step up, and chances are he stays on the second line like he was last season, although perhaps new coach Jim Mongomery will choose to go with the super line of Bergeron, Pastrnak and Marchand once Marchand returns, in which case the line should produce more, and perhaps Marchand with it. Let's not overlook though that Marchand will start the season late and without the benefit of training camp. His is also the type of injury where others haven't come back and been their normal selves from day one. That should suppress Marchand's production, although it's not clear for how long and to what extent.

Despite what looked like a down season, the data indicated that Marchand played arguably better than in his higher scoring prior four seasons. The issue was – and most certainly still is – the team around him no longer being what it once was, not to mention Marchand, at age 34, coming back from surgery without the benefit of training camp and preseason. So when looking at the totality of circumstances, there is enough positive and negative for me to conclude that we're in for more of the same, meaning Marchand should once again score at a roughly 95 point pace, but with a better shot of him falling to 90 than rising to 100. As such, his 2021-22 was JUST RIGHT and he gets a rating of 5.5.

Tom Wilson (78 games, 24G, 28A, 151 SOG, 10 PPPts, 18:35 TOI, 2:31 PP, 49.5 PP%)

Grabbed 16th overall in 2012, the Caps knew they were getting a rough and tumble player. To the surprise of many though, given his lack of scoring, Wilson was in the NHL as a teen, drawing comparisons to hard hitting but low scoring enforcers of yore. And sure enough after five seasons, Wilson had yet to average even a point per every other game in any. Then though, the team started giving him chances in the middle and even top six, and he produced, with 2021-22 marking the fourth straight season of him sporting a 50-60 point scoring rate. In view of this consistency, can we expect more of the same from Wilson? I'm thinking no, as his once secure "spot" could be usurped, and those who employ his playing style have tended to see a decline at or near his age.

Although Wilson doesn't turn 29 until March, let's not forget he was in the NHL as a teen, and thus already has 647 regular season games under his belt. Looking at players over the past 20 seasons who scored at a 50+ point rate at least three times in their 20s and, like Wilson, had at least that many 240+ hit seasons before age 30, we arrive at Dustin Brown, Ryan Callahan, David Backes, and Milan Lucic. Of them, only Brown remained productive into his 30s, and that was thanks to being on PP1 and getting top ice time. Lucic saw his stats plummet at age 29, while for Backes it was at age 30 but after 601 games, and Callahan at age 30 but after not even 500 career games. Wilson, who isn't deployed as favorably as Brown had been, could be on borrowed time in terms of his production.

In looking at Wilson's trends, there is seemingly a positive in his share of PP minutes rising each of the past four seasons. But it's yet to top 50%; and his PP time per game dropped each quarter of 2021-22, finishing at just 2:02 per game in Q4, which was lower than it was in Q4 of 2020-21. Why did this occur? A return to health of T.J. Oshie, who occupies a role similar to that of Wilson on the PP, such that if both are in the line-up it's likely Oshie who'll continue to be used on PP1 over Wilson. Also, Wilson nabbed a point on just 41.7% of the PP goals scored while on the ice, a rate so low that Washington was bound to have noticed, perhaps leading to him being deemphasized as he was in Q4. Beyond that, there's also Anthony Mantha and Dylan Strome, who, like Wilson, are larger players, and will be in the race for PP time, with only two forward spots up for grabs on PP1 alongside Alex Ovechkin and Evgeni Kuznetsov. Although Wilson fared better on the PP in 2021-22 than in any prior campaign and has positive season-to-season momentum, Q4 was likely a sign of things to come, with Wilson reverting to more of a PP2 fixture who will be pushed aside from PP1 by players with offensive talent that would translate to a PP IPP of higher than 41.7%.

It wasn't just Wilson's PP time that dropped as 2021-22 wore on. Inasmuch as Wilson was tethered to Alex Ovechkin, when Ovi emerged last season with 37 points in his first 22 games, Wilson rose to a point per game level. But Wilson's scoring rate dropped big time over the rest of the season, as in his last 56 games he managed just 30 points, for a scoring pace of 44 points. And as this was occurring, Ovi's TOI never wavered; however, Wilson's, as we already saw, dropped on the PP but also at even strength, with his Q4 overall TOI down by more than 2:00 from his Q1 time. So while the team has no choice but to play Ovi into the ground on the rare occasions when he's slumping, when it comes to Wilson they have other options, notably Anthony Mantha and newly acquired Connor Brown, that latter of whom has carved out a niche in recent seasons by playing alongside elite players in the top six, first on Toronto then for the Sens.

Wilson is also hurt – pun intended – by the fact that he'll miss time at the start of 2021-22, giving Brown and/or Mantha the opportunity to get settled as Ovi's RW, and those two, or perhaps Strome, forming a PP1 with Ovi and Kuznetsov. Conventional wisdom is the Caps will eventually want to reunite Wilson with Ovi, as Wilson acts as a protector to ensure other teams don't take liberties with Washington's superstar. But Ovi is not too shabby when it comes to sticking up for himself, to an extent whereby it might just be that Wilson's early season absence costs him his cushy spot if not for good then at least for 2022-23.

Lastly, although Wilson's 28 assists were a career high, half of them were secondary, which is a high percentage for someone, like him who has a high shooting percentage, as Wilson tends to either get goals or have his shots lead directly to goals. For him, a 50% secondary assist % is more like a 60% or higher rate for a normal player, and thus troublesome.

Seeing Wilson become a scorer has been a feel good fantasy story after it looked for a while like he wouldn't amount to any more than a bottom six enforcer. Seeing what occurred in 2021-22, however, cements that Wilson is being carried by Alex Ovechkin, for whom it's no longer clear Wilson is needed as a linemate, and whose injury will open the door to have his spot taken away by the likes of Connor Brown or Anthony Mantha. On top of that, Wilson's year-to-year climb in share of PP minutes likely has reached its end, at a cost of at least a handful of points. As such, Wilson's 2021-22 was TOO HOT and he gets a rating of 8.75. We may have seen the last season of him sporting a 50+ point scoring pace, with a chance of his output really sinking if he follows a blueprint of the likes of Lucic, Backes and Callahan.

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Questions for Mailbag

My next monthly mailbag still has plenty of room for questions. To get yours to me, you can either send (1) a private message to “rizzeedizzee” via the DobberHockey Forums, or (2) an email to [email protected] with “Roos Mailbag” as the subject line.